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Compoundfulcrum

Bitcoin's bias remains up, but sideways through tomorrowGood morning, traders. We are nearing the end of the week which means CME Bitcoin futures expire in just over 24 hours (10 a.m. CST on 9/28/2018). Bitcoin continues to move sideways as we suggested might likely happen, but it did finally break through the resistance at the descending blue line. The resistance combined with the ascending support created a pennant which gives price a target of almost $6695 based on the flagpole leading to it. But first price has to hit the $6614 target. This gets it back into the yellow box. Don't forget that the largest target of $6763 is now triggered and is based on the DBW. The swing high at $6540 remains the key to those targets. Successful breach of that swing high should send price on its way. Failure to breach it suggests supply is greater than demand and we may see price dipping below $6300. There are gaps up to $6973 on the 15 minute chart from the last run up to $7400, suggesting the most likely move is up to fill those gaps. Price remains within the descending channel/bull flag on the 1D chart. A breach of this flag's resistance should send price targeting $7290 at this time, which puts it at the bottom of the blue box. At that point, price is just a skip away from breaching the $7430 swing high that marks the top of the right shoulder. Doing so confirms the compound fulcrum and should mark the reversal. It also takes price through the resistance of the February descending wedge as well as the June symmetrical triangle thereby providing a target of just over $11,200. A higher high above $8500 confirms a bullish trend on the larger TF as it would give us higher lows and highs for the first time this year, and it does so over the course of 3+ months. The DJI printed a three black crows candlestick pattern which is a sign of a reversal. It did so after printing the evening star which is also a reversal sign. The recent Zero Hedge article (www.zerohedge.com) noting that insider selling has soared and is showing the fastest pace of September sales in the past decade, while the average continues to rise, confirms what I noticed about Friday's $90 TR but >2x average volume -- retail is being distributed to. FOMC raised interest rates 25 basis points as expected yesterday and we can see the DXY rising as a result. Again, this was expected as a response to the interest rate hike. FOMC stated they planned to raise the rate once more this year and 3x in 2019. If stocks are in distribution as they appear, then we will be lucky if we see another raise any time soon. Gold is dropping as a response to the rise in the DXY but currently remains within the month-long TR though I'm not sure it will be able to remain within it.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
7
BTC'S compound fulcrum signifying a bullish reversal?Good Wednesday morning, traders. Bitcoin followed the red-outlined likely movement, hit our targets that we discussed on last night's live stream, and is looking to exit the DBW that it has been in for the past 2-3 days. Before it does, we should see some consolidation right below support. A breach should provide a target of $6780, based on the widest area of the pattern. That also takes price to the top of the yellow zone. This is all no surprise, however, because as we discussed last night there was a 4H bullish divergence building at that time. Currently, the 4H MACD is attempting to print a bullish cross. Both, RSI and MACD, are about to become bullish on this TF as well. Additionally, a breach of $6600 should take price out of the 1D flag it has been printing which would then provide a target, based on the flagpole, of $7350 at this time. Many people are calling this whole upward movement from September 5th a bear flag, but it is most likely the completion of a compound fulcrum. If you've been following Peter Brandt on the other social media platform, then you know he mentioned a pattern called a compound fulcrum this morning. It is a reversal pattern and is pretty rare. Basically, it is what appears to be a head and shoulders pattern at the bottom of an extended downward movement. It indicates that a bottom is likely forming. A breach of the September 4th swing high at around $7405 would confirm this pattern. This, of course, would also pull price out of the large descending triangle/wedge that price has been printing since February as well as the symmetrical triangle that it has been printing since June. In other words, all these patterns are lining up as likely bullish reversals at the same general exit point. Furthermore, this is all happening as Bakkt is nearing launch, and as I've mentioned numerous times before Bakkt is huge for the market but retail traders are too caught up in the sub-$5000, 2 year long bear winter narrative to understand how significant it really is. BTC/USD longs continue to grow and shorts have dropped a bit overnight, however the ratio remains greater than 1:1 in favor of shorts. DXY is attempting to breach the descending channel's resistance, most likely a result of expected interest rate hike today. Again, this isn't anything surprising and has been what we've been suggesting would likely happen today. However, if the FOMC doesn't raise interest rates, we can expect a strong drop in the DXY. Gold is dropping just a bit, but remains well within the TR it established over a month ago. DJI continues to drop as expected as well while the S&P is printing bearish divergence on the 1M chart with RSI in overbought territory. We saw the S&P do the same thing the DJI did last Friday which is print a small-range candle at a new ATH with volume that doubled the recent average. Again, this signifies C.O. selling into retail euphoria - distribution.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
4