A Bitcoin Fib-Time Based Cycle (Concept #3)In this chart, we explore a third Bitcoin Fib-Time Cycles concept (3/5). Refer to the original idea for concept #1 or concept #2 (linked below). In this concept, we position Bitcoin within an unconventional greater two-cycle phase, where the current cycle, Cycle 2, contributes to a Supercycle. It offers a twist that may appeal to the more contrarian, as its approach is taken from the emotional 'Herd' perspective. We use this to examine investor sentiment as it often conflicts with price action and can provide moments of opportunities or reasons to prepare and avert risk. Unlike other concepts, each signpost should be viewed as a rolling emotional peak within that period, until the next is triggered. This chart is not to be confused with other concepts, however, it can be confluent whilst still being conceptually distinct.
In this third concept, the positioning of the trend-based Fib-Time Extensions has been drawn from Bitcoin's inception to the first impulse rally in 2020. From there it is then projected sequentially again up until 2030. The rationale behind this theory is based on the idea that originated from my first-ever TV-published chart (linked below) . The shift in Bitcoin's cyclical nature poses a possibility that most of Bitcoin's growth from the early stages (2009 to 2013) is now in a repetitive sequence. This could indicate signs at greater levels playing into larger growth, which then forecasts a longer-term bear market.
Note: These vertical projections are not manually placed; they are based on Fibonacci sequence numbers derived from the denoted placements (0-1). Interestingly, where they end up closely correlates to the major pivots across Bitcoin's historical patterns.
Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish (short-term), cycles can play out over the years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why this is an alternative concept to others I have been exploring. More alternatives in the coming weeks and months.
This chart merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles to date, highlighting key pivotal points and how Bitcoin can often play on emotion and sentiment-driven participants. Overall it is worth observing even without this concept as understanding timing and environmental circumstances can be just as crucial as managing risk or setting price targets. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want.
Key Takeaways:
This chart is based on the 2-week timeframe as its projections are till mid-2030
With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib-time level (signpost) approximately triggers the next shift in the emotional phase. It is within a phase to anticipate the preceding signpost and observe the sentiment with the correct mindset.
Each fib range marks approximately 3808 days (10.43yrs)
Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level.
Once a cycle of phases is completed, we will assess as I believe this concept could prove to be a new set of cycles.
We are 2 weeks, and 3 days until we crossover the next signpost (The Fomo Sweats!) Crossing the next signpost does suggest that there is a 1-3 month period of rapid upside.
This current second iteration cycle is projected to end in Jun 2030.
This is purely a concept and not certain and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here:
Concepts
Bullish Dollar Within a Trading Range. TVC:DXY is currently trading in a consolidation pattern and is located in the premium end of the trading range between 104.447 and 103.013.
The August 30 candle swept the short term daily sellside liquidity at 103.013 into the Weekly BISI fair value gap which was nearly totally rebalanced. Upon leaving the Weekly FVG range, it was repriced to the premium end of the range, forming a daily BISI Fair Value Gap.
Sept 4th trading range appears to still be forming a Daily BISI fair value gap in which I expect price to protract into early in the week before either staying in a consolidated range or move higher toward daily and weekly buyside liquidity pools toward the daily Volume Imbalance.
Price points of interest:
D.Volume Imbalance: 105.278 & 105.125
Wk.Buyside Liquidity: 104.700
D.Buyside Liquidity: 104.447
D BISI Fair Value Gap: 104.025 high & 103.740 low
D. BISI Fair Value Gap: 102.771 high & 102.654 low.
Smart Money Concepts swing trading odyssey|Ep.12|8R long|EURUSDBack yet again with the Phase C continuation limit order entry model for swing trading, using ICT's SMC toolkit. This is again being documented as a reference for my future YouTube channel.
This description took too long to write, sorry if price has moved away from where I got tagged in...
So, these Phase C swing trades are proving to be a bane - the last one on Gold went sideways for about 2 weeks leading to me closing it today before inflation news with DXY showing weakness.
Fed sentiment: Hawkish? The bond market says another 0.25% rate hike is likely and I think it has been priced in for a while. US inflation slowly coming down; 5% down to 4% y/y. Month on month it's not improving though and employment is only just starting to maybe drop, meaning room for another interest rate hike to tighten the economy.
Trader sentiment: risk on (inflation easing + stock market rallying)
On the Euro side, employment seems to be going up, and inflation is still too high. A rate hike is practically a given with the ECB having room to do it.
Overall sentiment: The 0.25% rate hike seems to be baked in, and in spite of that, EURUSD continues to form a technical pattern that implies it's going higher. If the Fed doesn't make the expected rate hike, it will likely just accelerate Euro's move up.
I am forecasting a technical move up more than a fundamental one. At LEAST to fill in the weekly FVG - if not breaking the last supply zone creating a new high for the year - but with the Fed expected to hold rates ~5% until possibly 2024 v.s. the pace of Europe's hikes and their stagnant GDP putting a limiter on their hikes, right now I don't see how EURUSD could rally much higher than that (but maybe this is just a lack of understanding on my part?)
Technicals: W pattern formed on daily TF creating new demand zone. SMT divergence with the DXY gives me confidence that market makers won't push price lower during FOMC tomorrow.
Entry: Phase C pullback into discount/50% of 4h swing low/daily bullish OB. As I said above, the SMT divs with Dollar gives me confidence to put my stop below the last 4h swing low despite news tomorrow, which could give an opportunity to scale in with bigger size, providing Euro doesn't just slip 60 pips in the blink of an eye.
Exit/Terminus: mid-point of the gap (volume imbalance) on the weekly TF + old weekly high, which is an 8R trade. I plan to partial at the last supply zone which begins at ~$1.09500.
Confidence: 7.5/10 for directional bias & 6/10 that they won't stop me out during FOMC tomorrow 😋.
Here is the weekly chart. Notice the red box which is the volume imbalance I am using as my Terminus/DOL:
Smart Money Concepts swing trading odyssey|Ep.11|11R short|GoldTesting my own Phase C continuation limit order entry model for swing trading, using ICT's SMC toolkit.
Fed sentiment: Hawkish? bond yields up/possibly more hikes/USD strength
Trader sentiment: risk on? (Nasdaq rally/debt ceiling raise talks/inflation easing?)
Supply/Demand factors: people still in employment and spending money means demand
Overall sentiment: should be bullish if not for hawkish fed and dollar strength
Technicals: Gold overbought/in premium on higher timeframes, double top pattern yet to finish playing out. SMT divergence with Silver
Entry: Phase C pullback into premium of 4h swing high/fair value gap. tightened up stop because swept PDH (prev day high) giving a nice potential 11R return
Exit/terminus: MT of M -OB (50% of monthly bearish order block(Mean Threshhold))
Confidence: 7/10
Weekly chart:
Monthly chart (see order block):
V2.0 | 22R Gold Long Swing Trade | Smart Money Concepts/ICTThis is an updated plan for the macro Cup & Handle breakout
Previous setup for the 30R Gold long didn't play out; the unconfirmed SMT divergence didn't get confirmed and there was no impulsive move away.
The stop loss is larger due to the entry location.
Not financial advice but if this trade idea inspires you, you could use an even bigger stop to avoid potentially getting stopped out by an errant news spike. 22:1 risk reward sounds cooler though doesn't it?
SMT divergence in this setup between Gold & Silver has been confirmed this time; stops were swept on one pair but not on the other, before rallying upwards and creating a higher high on the daily timeframe.
In theory the swing where stops were swept SHOULD hold now.
❗️5 CRUCIAL TRADING CONCEPTS❗️
✅Forex trading can be an exciting and lucrative way to make money. However, it can be very challenging, even for seasoned traders. To be successful, it's essential to understand some essential concepts that can help you navigate the market and make more informed decisions.
✅One crucial concept to keep in mind is the impact of position sizing on trading success. Position sizing refers to the number of units you buy or sell when entering a trade. A lot of traders overlook the importance of proper position sizing, which can lead to significant losses. To increase the chances of success, traders should aim to limit their risk per trade to less than 2% of their account balance.
✅Another idea that can help traders is to focus on the outcome of their trades rather than their hit rate. Many traders believe that having a high hit rate is critical to success; this is not true. While accuracy is essential, profitability ultimately depends on the amount of money you make versus what you lose on each trade. Therefore, it's more crucial to focus on a trading strategy that controls losses and maximizes profits.
✅The third concept that successful traders implement is simplicity. Simple and robust systems tend to perform better than complex strategies. Overcomplicating a trading plan can lead to confusion and can even trigger emotional responses that may drive you to make impulsive decisions during trading.
✅This brings us to the fourth critical concept, which is psychology. Trading is 80% psychology, and the remaining 20% is skills and knowledge. A trader with the right mindset is much more likely to succeed than one who lacks the discipline to adhere to a trading plan.
✅Finally, traders who focus on learning one pattern or strategy tend to be more profitable than those who search for fancy strategies or systems. As the trading market constantly evolves, traders must always stay on their toes and keep learning. However, instead of trying to master everything, it is helpful to focus on a single pattern or strategy until it becomes your specialty.
✅In conclusion, Forex trading is a complex practice that requires patience, discipline, and the ability to adapt. With these five principles in mind, traders can become more successful, minimize risk, and increase their profits. By keeping things simple, controlling emotions, and making smart decisions about position sizing, traders can maximize their potential and achieve their financial goals.
I Hope you guys learned something new today✅
Wish you all Best Of Luck👍
😇And may the odds be always in your favor😇
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Possible 30R Gold Long - Swing trade - Smart Money Concepts/ICT1. Price has come back to mitigate the 4H +FVG (Fair Value Gap) created on the 4th April, sweeping a PDL (Previous Day's Low) in the process to clean out the stop losses of anyone in early longs from this past week. This is an early entry signal and I have started to scale in with a scalp. (This higher risk trading, and not financial advice!)
2. Price has also retraced to a W +OB (Order Block)
3. We have SMT divergence with Silver, which has not swept the same low; another bullish signal in SMC (Smart Money Concepts) - although it would be better to have the SMT divergence with the previous structure than the current one as this is still unconfirmed (Silver can still make a lower low!)
ENTRY: ***IF*** price displaces/moves impulsively away now on the 15m timeframe, it can come back to fill the 15m +BPR (Balanced Price Range) left after the sweep of the 4th April lows. a 15m ChoCh (Change of Character) A.K.A. MSS (Market Structure Shift) would be ideal, but the last 15m swing high to be broken is a bit far away so the BPR fill is the alternative. This also lines up with the 4H +FVG which has a 4H +OB/Demand Zone below it.
I have placed my stop loss below the Pennant's rPOC (Range Point Of Control) for a peace of mind instead of the wick of the stop hunt.
I will post a zoomed in chart below.
GBPUSD - Spot the Pattern!Traders come in different shapes and sizes!
Mentality can also come in different shapes and sizes!
Some traders like to follow systems!
Some traders use creativity to spot patterns!
One thing won't work for everyone!
but the Beauty is
us traders have one thing in common...
trading psychology
it spares no one!
Bitcoin 23R Long NOT Short | Smart Money Concepts | ICTThis is a re-entry to a 39R long that I posted the other week based on an inverted H&S on the daily timeframe.
This time it's another 23R long based on a sweep of a previous day low which I scalped yesterday, and a scale in after a 15m choch/MSS and pullback to OTE.
The strategy is the same, but this time it's based off a retracement to the top of this megaphone structure on the daily timeframe and a supply zone roughly at the 50% equilibrium point.
There is also SMT divergence between Ethereum and BTC as indicated on the chart
I think this is a bit more risky, but unless we get a bigger pullback, this is the best place to enter.
This scale-in swing trade is supported by:
1. A risk-off environment due to impending bank failures combined with the Fed's sentiment indicating an ostensible softening of interest rate rises.
2. Investors are seeking safety in Gold and BTC, as well as hedging against inflation. This combined with the weekly timeframe falling wedge and daily H&S pattern pointing to $37K or higher (supply zone and high volume node above).
This is not investment or financial advice, just my own opinion. I already partialed on my previous swing trade from ~24K so this scale-in is worth the risk:reward.
40R EURUSD Long Swing Trade (Smart Money Concepts)Testing one of my smart money concepts swing trading strategies using an early entry based on day trading setup. The setup normally involves a sweep of a 4h choch/MSS deep in premium/discount, then a daily pin bar or hammer, or a 4h choch.
Previous Day Opening Gap has been filled on DXY as well as three months of liquidity swept.
This early entry utilizes a long from a trendline following another strategy of mine. If successful, will take the majority of the position off after daily FVG fills and leave some on to run as a swing trade.
EURCHF EURCHF is trading in a downtrend and the pair broke a key level which confirms bearish bias. I have marked up a cheeky Counter Trade to where I feel like the price will reject and head towards my point of interest from where bearish continuation Will likely follow. I have a couple sells open so I don't mind if SL is hit. If the market does not give me my confirmations, I will not enter.