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Confidence

Euro jumps to 10-day highThe euro has posted strong gains on Monday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.1126 in the North American session at the time of writing, up 0.49% today. The euro is at its highest level since Sept. 6. It’s a quiet day on the data calendar, with no tier-1 events. In the US, the Empire State Manufacturing index rebounded to 11.5 in September, much higher than the August reading of -4.7 and the market estimate of -3.9. This was a shocker as the manufacturer index had contracted nine straight times before today’s reading. Tuesday will be busier, with German ZEW economic sentiment index and US retail sales. German ZEW economic sentiment plunged to 19.2 in August, down from 41.8 in July. The market estimate for September stands at 17.1. US retail sales are expected to fall to 2.2% y/y in August, down from 2.7% in July. This week’s key event is the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, with a 25 basis-point cut practically guaranteed. Will the Fed opt for an oversize 50-bps cut or play it safe with a 25-bps move? The rate cut odds continue to swing wildly. After last week’s producer price index reading, the odds of a 50-bps point cut soared to 41%, up from just 13% before the release, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. That has increased to 59% today. The uncertainty over what the Fed will do could last right up to the wire. The Fed is in a quandary as it needs to balance the risk of inflation moving higher against the recent weakness in the labor market. A modest 25-bps cut may not be sufficient to improve the employment picture, while a 50 bps cut might send a message that the Fed believes the economy is in deep trouble. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.118. Above, there is resistance at 1.1160 There is support at 1.1060 and 1.1018
by OANDA
AUD/USD falls ahead of employment reportThe Australian dollar, which has posted strong gains early in the week, has run into a wall on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6638, down 0.66%. Australia releases the February employment report on Thursday (Australia time). Job growth is expected to rebound, with a consensus of 48,500 after a soft January read of -11,500. The unemployment rate is expected to tick lower to 3.6%, down from 3.7%. The Reserve Bank of Australia will be watching closely, as a robust labour market has enabled the central bank to continue its tightening - the Bank raised rates last week by 25 basis points, a 10th straight hike which brought the cash rate to 3.60%. The good news is that the end of the tightening cycle could be near, with the markets pricing in a pause at the April meeting. Consumers and businesses are weary of rising interest rates and confidence indicators do not paint an optimistic picture. Along with the job data, Australia releases consumer inflation expectations for March. The markets are braced for the indicator to rise to 5.4%, after a 5.1% gain in February. Inflation expectations is a key inflation gauge as it can set the direction of actual inflation, and the RBA will not be happy if inflation expectations accelerate. There is an uneasy calm in the air as the dust begins to settle after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. The sky is not falling, not even above US bank towers, as regional bank stocks have rebounded. The US inflation release on Tuesday delivered as expected, with both the headline and core CPI readings matching the estimates. Headline CPI fell to 6.0%, down from 6.4%, while the core rate ticked lower to 5.5%, down from 5.6%. Inflation is cooling but we're not seeing the disinflation process that the markets were celebrating only a few weeks ago. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6639. Below, there is support at 0.6508 0.6713 and 0.6844 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
EUR/USD extends lossesThe euro continues to lose ground and has started the week in negative territory. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0783, down 0.19%. Earlier in the day, the euro has now fallen to its lowest level since Jan. 23. The euro sent market participants on a roller-coaster ride last week. The Fed's rate increase pushed the euro higher by 1.16%, but the ECB rate hike and the blowout US nonfarm payroll report sent the euro tumbling close to 2%. The January US nonfarm payrolls was an absolute blowout that surprised everybody. The economy created 517,000 new jobs, crushing the estimate of 185,000 and well above the December gain of 260,000. The unemployment rate fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, its lowest rate since 1969. The US dollar surged against most of the major currencies after the employment report and the euro fell by 1%. There has been talk that the Fed might deliver a "one and done" rate hike in March which would end the current rate-hike cycle, even though Jerome Powell said at last week's FOMC meeting that two more rate hikes were likely. After the massive gain in nonfarm payrolls, the "one and done" proponents will be lying low. How will the Fed react to the job data? The labour market, which has shown remarkable resilience to the Fed's steep rate-tightening cycle, is much too strong for the Fed's liking, as a weaker labour market is needed for inflation to continue falling. Fed member Mary Daly called the employment release a "wow number" and said that the Fed's December forecast of a peak rate of 5.1% was a "good indicator" of Fed policy. With the benchmark rate currently at 4.5%-4.75%, we're likely looking at two more rate hikes, exactly what Jerome Powell said at the FOMC meeting last week. Since the employment report, the markets have become less dovish and have priced in an increase in May. Eurozone data was a mixed bag today. German factory orders bounced back in December with a gain of 3.2% m/m, after a 4.4% decline in November. The estimate stood at 2.0%. Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence improved to -8.0, up from -17.5 points. However, eurozone retail sales slid 2.7% m/m in January, down from a 1.2% gain in December and worse than the consensus of -2.5%. 1.0758 is a weak support line, followed by 1.0633 There is resistance at 1.0873 and 1.0954
by OANDA
USD/JPY - China jitters propel yen higherAfter strong gains last week, the Japanese yen has extended its gains on Monday. USD/JPY is trading at 138.23 in the European session, down 0.67%. China has applied its Covid-zero policy with a heavy hand, but Covid cases continue to rise nonetheless. The mass lockdowns have triggered widespread protests, which some injuries reported. The unrest is likely to exacerbate supply-chain disruptions and dampen domestic demand, which has hurt risk appetite. This has resulted in flows to haven assets, such as the Japanese yen. USD/JPY dropped as much as 1% earlier today, but the dollar has managed to recover some of these losses. The yen also received a boost after Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said that the tightening labour market will push wages higher. Kuroda has long insisted that rising inflation has driven by import costs and the weak yen and is transient. Higher wages would indicate that inflation is sustained, which could result in the BoJ making some changes in its ultra-loose policy. After a short trading week in the US due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the markets will have plenty of US events to digest this week. CB Consumer Confidence will be released on Tuesday, with the November report expected to dip to 100.0, down from 102.5. The key release of the week is nonfarm payrolls on Friday, which could have a major impact on the Fed's decision to raise rates by 50 or 75 basis points at the December 14th meeting. Currently, the likelihood of a 50-bp hike is about 75%, versus 25% for a larger 75-bp increase. Investors are viewing a 50-point move as a dovish pivot, which has been putting pressure on the US dollar. Still, even a 50-bp hike would set a record for yearly rate hikes of 4.25%. There is resistance at 139.82 and 141.58 There is support at 137.39 and 135.63
by OANDA
Euro steady as German data improvesUS markets are open for limited hours today, and investors are focussed on the World Cup and Black Friday rather than the US dollar. EUR/USD is trading quietly at 1.0392, down 0.18%. German data has not been spectacular this week, but nonetheless is moving in the right direction, as the German economy is in decent shape. Germany's GDP for Q3 was revised upwards to 0.4% QoQ, up from 0.3% and ahead of the consensus of -0.2%. This follows a 0.1% gain in GDP in Q1 and is all the more impressive, considering the headwinds on the global scene, in particular the war in Ukraine. Germany has made a mammoth effort to stockpile energy supplies and end its dependence on Russia, which should mean that an energy crisis can be avoided this winter. German Consumer confidence remains weak but improved slightly for a second straight month. The November reading rose to -40.2, up from -41.9, although shy of the consensus of -39.6. Business confidence also edged higher earlier this week, as did Business Expectations. The ECB minutes, released on Thursday, indicated that ECB members remained concerned about inflation becoming entrenched. Members were clear about the need to raise rates in order to bring inflation back down to the 2% target, and most members supported the 75-bp hike at the October meeting, with a few voting for a 50-bp move. The markets have priced in a 50-bp increase at the December 15th meeting, after ECB policymakers hit the airwaves and urged that the ECB slow down the pace of rate hikes. Still, with inflation at a crippling 10.6%, there's little doubt that the ECB will have to continue raising rates, and the markets expect the deposit rate, currently at 1.5%, to hit 3.0% in 2023. 1.0359 and 1.0238 are providing support There is resistance at 1.0447 and 1.0568
by OANDA
AUD/USD resumes rally with massive gainsThe Australian dollar has posted sharp gains, as the US dollar is lower against the majors in the North American session. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6542, up 0.97%. Australia's NAB Business Confidence for October slipped to zero, down from 5 points in September. The significant decline is reflective of a drop in orders, higher rates at home and a gloomy global negative outlook. The soft data comes on the heels of Westpac Consumer Sentiment, which plunged by 6.9% to 78 points, its lowest level since April 2020, when the Covid pandemic had just started. Inflation is galloping at a 7.3% clip, China's economy is weakening and the energy crisis in Europe is likely to worsen in the winter. These headwinds are not about to go away, which does not bode well for the Australian economy. The Australian dollar has fallen sharply in 2022, although we're seeing a rebound, with gains of 2.9% on Friday, courtesy of the US nonfarm payrolls, and strong gains today as well. The US dollar's decline on Friday and again today are against all the majors, which means that this is a case of US dollar weakness rather than Australian dollar strength. I would be surprised if the Aussie can hold onto these recent gains, as the currency faces plenty of headwinds. In the US, the midterm elections are being held today, which is widely being viewed as a referendum on President Biden's performance. The economy is giving mixed signals and Biden's popularity is sagging, which could result in the Republicans taking control of both the House and the Senate. If the Republicans grab either one, it will translate into deadlock in Washington and a weakened President Biden. The election could move the US dollar if we see a Democratic surprise or a clean sweep by the Republicans. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6545. Next, there is resistance at 0.6631 There is support at 0.6411 and 0.6329
by OANDA
EUR/USD punches above parity, ECB nextEUR/USD continues to power forward and has breached the parity line for the first time since September 20th. The euro is red hot, having gained 2.1% this week, as the US dollar has hit a bump in the road and is lower against all the major currencies. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0069, up 1.02%. The German economy, the largest in the eurozone, continues to show signs of weakness. September PMIs pointed to contraction in manufacturing and business activity, and these are unlikely to rebound as the Ukraine war continues and an energy crisis looms, with winter close by. The Ifo Business Confidence index fell for a fourth straight month in October and GfK Consumer Sentiment, which will be released tomorrow, is expected to remain deep in negative territory. The ECB meets on Thursday, with policy makers having to contend not only with a gloomy economic outlook in the eurozone, but also with spiralling inflation, with no sign of a peak. Eurozone CPI jumped to 9.9% in September, up sharply from the 9.1% rise in August. The markets have priced in a supersize 0.75% hike, which would bring the cash rate to 2.0% and investors will be looking for the Bank to declare its commitment to bring inflation back to the 2% target. A jumbo full-point increase remains a slight possibility, given that inflation is close to double-digits. Investors will be monitoring the follow-up press conference, and the euro's direction tomorrow could depend on ECB President Lagarde's message to the markets. If Lagarde signals that further rate hikes are coming, the euro will likely gain ground. Conversely, a dovish stance from Lagarde could cut short the euro's rally. EUR/USD has broken above 0.9846 and is testing resistance at 0.9985. The next resistance line is 1.0095 There is support at 0.9753 and 0.9643
by OANDA
AUD/USD falls to new 18-month lowAUD/USD continues to lose ground and can't find its footing. The Aussie started the week on the wrong foot, with a decline of 1.0% on Monday. In today's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6266 down 0.52%. Earlier the day, the Australian dollar fell to 0.6247, its lowest level since April 2020. Australia has posted weak numbers this week, adding to the downward pressure on the ailing Australian dollar. The Services PMI fell into contraction territory with a reading of 48.0 in September, down from 53.3 in August, as the uncertain economic outlook is weighing on business activity. Business confidence levels are down, with NAB business confidence slowing to 5 in September, down from 10 in August. Westpac Consumer Sentiment indicated that consumers are also in a sour mood, with a reading of -0.9% in September after a gain of 3.9% in August, which was the sole gain over the past 11 months. Risk appetite has been dampened by the escalating crisis in the Ukraine war, with Russia annexing parts of occupied Ukraine and firing missiles at civilian targets. As well, the energy crisis is looming over Western Europe, just weeks ahead of winter. This is weighing on the risk-sensitive Australian dollar. In the US, inflation releases have taken on added significance, as the Federal Reserve has designated soaring inflation as public enemy number one. The US releases PPI data on Wednesday and CPI a day later. Headline inflation has dropped over the past two months, but remains at 8.3%. Unless headline and core inflation both surprise with much lower readings than expected, I don't anticipate any change in course from the Fed. If inflation underperforms, the US dollar could lose ground. Conversely, a higher-than-expected inflation report would be bullish for the US dollar. AUD/USD tested resistance at 0.6503 in the Asian session. The next resistance line is 0.6607 There is support at 0.6433 and 0.6329
by OANDA
AUD/USD rebounds ahead of RBAAUD/USD has started the trading week with strong gains. The Aussie is trading at 0.6447, up 0.67%. Is the nasty slide over? The Australian dollar is coming off a third straight losing week. September was a disaster, as AUD/USD plummeted 6.4%. The escalation in the war in Ukraine, which has sapped risk sentiment, and the aggressive Federal Reserve have dampened market appetite for the risk-related Australian dollar. The RBA meets on Tuesday, and Bank members are widely expected to deliver a fifth consecutive hike of 50 basis points, which would take the benchmark rate to 2.85%. After that, the RBA may lower gears to 25bp moves. Governor Lowe has signaled that he would like to shift to 25bp hikes at some point, which would help guide the economy to a soft landing and avoid choking off economic growth. However, there is no indication that inflation has peaked, and soaring inflation was the primary reason for the RBA's sharp rate-hike cycle. The next inflation report will be released in late October, with the RBA November meeting just one week later. It's a safe bet that the size of the rate hike in November will depend to a large extent on that inflation report. In the US, the Fed may make a U-turn in policy before the end of the year, depending on the strength of the economy. The data can be conflicting, which was the case on Friday. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the Core PCE Index, rose 4.9% in August, up from 4.7% in July and above the consensus of 4.7%. At the same time, the University of Michigan sentiment index showed that inflation expectations for 5-10 years ticked lower to 2.8%, down from 2.7%. In the meantime, the Fed's hawkish stance has fuelled the US dollar's upswing. AUD/USD has support at 0.6450 and 0.6363 There is resistance at 0.6598 and 0.6685
by OANDA
EUR/USD falls as inflation jumpsThe euro is showing limited movement today, after a two-day rally. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 0.9759, down 0.55%. It has been a week of swings for the euro, which has traded in a 300-point range. The euro has been under strong pressure, and is down 2.5% in September, as the euro continues to drop further away from the psychologically-important parity line. The number 10 is not at all pretty when referring to inflation, but that is today's story, as eurozone CPI jumped to 10.0% in August, up from 9.1% in July and above the consensus of 9.7%. This is the highest rate ever recorded since the euro was introduced back in 1999. Inflation is well supported, as all broad categories reflected price increases, and core inflation rose to 4.8%, up from 4.3% and higher than the 4.7% estimate. Germany, the powerhouse of the bloc, saw inflation accelerate even higher, to 10.9%. The chief driver of soaring inflation is energy prices, which have skyrocketed as Russia has sharply reduced energy exports to Europe. The latest ominous development was a series of explosions at the Nord Stream pipelines this week. Although the pipeline system had already been shut down, the explosions, which were likely sabotage, have sent natural gas prices even higher. The ECB showed up very late to the rate-tightening dance, and the current benchmark rate of 1.25% lags behind other central banks and will not have much impact on soaring inflation. The central bank appears to have little choice other than to deliver a second-straight rate increase of 0.75% at the October meeting. With eurozone inflation hitting double digits and showing no sign of peaking, it is no surprise that confidence levels are sinking among consumers and businesses. The European Commission economic sentiment index slipped to 93.7 in September, down from 97.3 in August. German GfK Consumer Confidence fell to -42.5 in September, down from -36.8 in August, and lower than the consensus of -39.0 points. The economic picture in the eurozone is bleak, and the ailing euro will be hard-pressed to make any headway against the surging US dollar. EUR/USD is testing support at 0.9554. Next, there is support at 0.9419 There is resistance at 0.9640 and 0.9711
by OANDA
1
Capitulation IndicatorThe 30:10 Treasury Bond Yield Spread is a simple Ratio difference between the 30-Year Treasury Bond Rate and the 10-YearTreasury Bond Rate. A Large exodus from high Beta/Rho correlated Assets to perceived Safe Havens. Presently the best-performing and most stable Asset of 2022 has been Cash - The US Dollar Index was 94.63 in mid-January to a high of 110.78 - a return of 17.066%. Both the 30:10 Ratio and DXY performance are indicating an extreme lack of confidence in the strength of the Economy. Quite recently Cross Flows among Capital Stocks - largest Inflows this week are 2-year Treasury Bills @ 288%. The flow was Net Cash to the Curve by Institutional Investors. Concerns are rising with respect to both the return of Capital as well as the return on Captial. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ $3.196 Trillion across - Stock Index Futures, Stock Index Options, Stock Options, & Single Stock Futures. P/C remains elevated @ .72 with .76 being the Pivot. The LIS for 4X Expiry is SPX 3900, we will need to see Open Interest activity as the Day progresses. It will either be supported for the Close or it will not as the next support is the Lows in June. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ It is important to observe the steep decline in Open Interest. The largest SPY Roll was into the OCT Expiry @ 372 Puts. SPX shows a parallel Roll. Please watch the Globex Lows - the NQ and ES can trade lower, it will be important for the NYSE Open. I focused initially on CASH for TECH - QQQ's 285 had the largest Roll period. In addition, all Strikes with a few exceptions up to 310 had retail rolling from 287. At the moment the O/I is churned for tomorrow, with both ROLL and SWAP to Retail, BUT Retail was a net BUYER of Calls. 383 is the Primary Support now that we crushed the trend lines, the Fibs line up there for the SPY. The ONLY issue I see is the Algos took the ES Futures up and over its Pivot trendline at the Close by a very small amount. Whether or not we open Up and then backtest or fall away will depend on several indications from the VIX VVIX $ 2YY... Volumes will be enormous. I'm looking over correlations and ratios and then swinging back around to Futures Options. This is what sticks out at present, the concern, of course, is Retail Longs who thought yesterday was a great day to enter Calls. What stands out is the size of Roll skipping the weekly expirations for both the SPY, SPX & QQQs. Intra-Week Roll is almost non-existent. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ **** This week matches a record from 1930 -the lowest raw number of Stocks Up as a percentage. I warned of the 4X Expiry being a large Risk, for revview -
TVC:US30Y
by HK_L61
2
Improve Your Trading ConfidenceConfidence is the backbone of any successful trading experience. You will not be able to handle this risky endeavor without a proper dose of confidence at your side. If you want to excel in trading, you will have to fiercely battle against yourself, your fear, and the market. 1. Know your methodology and plan Having a roadmap in itself will get you started off on the right foot and instill confidence before you get into the ‘heat of battle’. There are countless ways to analyze markets with no truly right or wrong approach. The key point here is that you have a methodology, and a relatively simple one, as too much complexity, causes paralysis by analysis, an obvious enemy of confidence. In addition to understanding your toolbox, whether it be technical, fundamental, or a combination of the two, you should have specific trade set-ups outlined that provide you with an edge or statistical advantage over time. 2. Use both winners and losers to build trading confidence Success is the key element that drives confidence. There are no better arguments that can make you feel really confident than a winning trade, or even better, a series of winning trades. If you’re lucky enough to keep your mind cool and not slip into overconfidence, it’s really important to reflect on your winning trades and take some notes. However, you should remember that even a considered trading plan may fail, so never believe that every trade that meets your plan’s criteria will work the same way. Sometimes even some perfect trade setups fail. It’s just a part of an overall picture, so just accept it and move on. Learn from your losing trades, analyze what you did wrong, and use it as an experience, which you should try to avoid next time. 3. Remember what you are good at and apply it to trading Think about what you are good at. Was your way to success easy and smooth? Never happens. You probably had to overcome some obstacles, face doubts, and pass through hurdles and uncertainty. Despite all this, you managed to succeed. Remember that feeling of confidence you have while doing your favorite job. Did you always feel the same? Doubt it. But the experience you've got can definitely help you in trading. Using your successful experiences as a touchstone will help you to build confidence in yourself and apply it to trading. 4. Focus on the process. learn, trade, sleep, repeat Markets are unpredictable. Don't get obsessed with the outcome of any single trade. Instead, put your energy into consistent and disciplined trading practice, which may eventually teach you to avoid mistakes and end up with a consistently profitable account. Practice, practice, practice! 5. Fake it till you make it Investing with confidence sometimes requires a “fake it till you make it” approach. Particularly in trading, you should learn how to act “as if” you are confident enough, even in the face of losing trades. At the very beginning, it may be hard to fight your inner demons and defeat your strong emotional impulses. You’ll have to stand up and walk away from your computer without getting obsessed with your wins and losses. You have to learn to accept any outcome and go ahead. In order to proceed, you’ll have to act like a “super trader” and believe in your trading skills. In The End Confident and successful people in general tend to have an optimistic attitude. If you want to achieve good results, stay positive and never give up. Follow your own trading and risk management strategy and eventually, the number of winning trades will outnumber the losing ones. Trading with confidence is easier said than done. However, it is worth trying. 🌱 If you found value and learn something new, leave me a like to show your support. 👍🏼❤️
INDEX:BTCUSD
by parissap
20
Euro teasingly flirts with parityFor those following the euro's close encounters with parity, the currency played a game of tease earlier today. In the European session, EUR/USD dropped to parity with the US dollar, a line of psychological importance. However, the euro would not budge any lower, and is currently at 1.0068 in the North American session, up 0.28% today. I would not be surprised if EUR/USD does break below parity in the coming days, for the first time in some twenty years. Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment has been stuck in negative territory for months, indicative of strong pessimism about the economic outlook. The July release earlier today fell to -53.8, down sharply from -28.0 in June and missing the consensus of -38.3. The eurozone economy is grappling with soaring inflation and the war in Ukraine shows every indication of dragging on. The Nordstream 1 pipeline, the main channel for Russian oil to Germany, closed for maintenance on Monday and there are fears that Moscow could decide to keep the pipeline closed. This would prove a nightmarish scenario for Germany, with winter only a few months away. The US dollar stormed out of the gates on Monday, buoyed by a stronger than expected non-farm payroll report on Friday. The economy produced 372 thousand jobs in June, well above the estimate of 268 thousand and close to the May release of 384 thousand (revised from 390 thousand). The unemployment rate remained at 3.9% and wages rose by 0.3%, which means that the Fed has a clear path to move ahead with a second straight 75bp hike at the July meeting. The Fed is not taking any prisoners in its battle against inflation and is clearly willing to deliver 75bp salvos until inflation eases. It wasn't long ago that a 50bp hike was considered a massive move; now such an increase would barely raise an eyebrow. The US releases inflation on Wednesday, a key release that could move the US dollar. Headline CPI is expected to rise from 8.6% to 8.8%, and if inflation does move higher, it would likely cement a 75bp move from the Fed and send the dollar higher. Conversely, a surprise drop in inflation would raise hopes that inflation has peaked and the Fed might resort to a 50bp increase, sending the dollar lower. EUR/USD tested support at 1.0018 in the European session. Below, there is support at 0.9889  There is resistance at 1.0124 and 1.0242
by OANDA
Euro above parity by a threadIt is looking like July 2022 could be a memorable month for the euro, but unfortunately not for the right reasons. EUR/USD is within a whisker of dropping below parity with the US dollar for the first time since 2002 and the risk of a break below parity below in the coming days remains high. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.008, down 1.00%.  The euro, along with all the other majors, is seeing red against the US dollar today. The markets have reacted to the surprisingly strong non-farm payroll report on Friday, as the June gain of 381 thousand surpassed the May reading of 336 thousand and easily beat the consensus of 240 thousand. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.6%, while wage growth grew by 0.3%. The solid employment report has raised expectations of another 75bp hike by the Fed at the end of July. A 75bp move will substantially widen the Europe/US rate differential, which is contributing to the euro's sharp descent today. The ECB holds its policy meeting six days ahead of the Federal Reserve, on July 21st. This meeting will likely mark the lift-off for ECB rate hikes, with another increase expected in September. The ECB has been scrambling to catch up to the inflation curve, as it badly misjudged the staying power of high inflation. ECB interest rates are in negative territory, and a modest 0.25% hike, the most likely scenario at the July meeting, may not do much to boost the euro, although perhaps the perception that the ECB is finally tightening will provide some support to the ailing currency. On Tuesday, Germany releases ZEW Economic Sentiment. The index has been mired in negative territory for months, indicative of strong pessimism about the economic outlook. In June, the index came in at -28.0 and this is expected to worsen to -40.0 in July. EUR/USD is putting strong pressure on support at 1.001, just above parity. Below, there is support at 0.9849 There is resistance at 1.0124 and 1.0221
by OANDA
Aussie steady as rally fizzlesThe Australian dollar headed lower earlier in the day before recovering. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7137, down 0.01% on the day. The RBA policy meeting went as expected, with the bank winding up its bond asset programme while preaching caution. Governor Lowe stressed that the end of QE did not mean that a rate rise was imminent and remained non-committal, saying that a hike could be a year away or even longer. Lowe reiterated that there are significant uncertainties as to recent inflationary pressures and that it was too early to determine if inflation was sustainably within the central bank's 2%-3% target band and said that there was no need to respond aggressively to inflation. Lowe is clearly in no rush to raise rates and may not have abandoned the view that inflation is transient and will ease in the near term. The markets, in contrast, are more hawkish and feel that high inflation will prompt the RBA to raise rates in the second half of 2022. Wage growth remains an obstacle to a rate hike, according to the RBA. Governor Lowe has stated that he will not raise rates prior to wage growth rising to 3.0%. We'll get a look at the 2022 forecast for wage growth on Friday when the RBA releases its monetary policy statement. The current projection stands at 2.5%, but if the bank revises this forecast upwards, it would reinforce expectations of a rate hike later in 2022. The RBA has been in the spotlight this week, overshadowing some positive economic releases. Building Approvals for December jumped 8.2% m/m, surprising the markets which had projected a 1.0% decline. The NAB business confidence index sparkled in Q4, climbing to 18, up from -2 beforehand. The end of Covid lockdowns invigorated the economy and gave a massive boost to business confidence. AUD/USD continues to test resistance at 0.7133. Above, we find resistance at 0.7271 There is support at 0.6913 and 0.6831
by OANDA
Topical FRED and Yale Investor Confidence Data IndicatorsYou can copy this chart as your own to get the indicators. Required Reserves of Depository Institutions, in $ Billions FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org Announcement: www.federalreserve.gov FAQ: www.frbservices.org Explanation: This action eliminates the need for thousands of depository institutions to maintain balances in accounts at Reserve Banks to satisfy reserve requirements, thereby freeing up liquidity in the banking system to support lending to households and businesses. Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org pages.uoregon.edu Monthly smoothed recession probabilities are calculated from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching (DFMS) model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. Historically, three consecutive months of smoothed probabilities above 80% has been a reliable signal of the start of a new recession, while three consecutive months of smoothed probabilities below 20% has been a reliable signal of the start of a new expansion. Unemployment Rate FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Labor force data are restricted to people 16 years of age and older, who currently reside in 1 of the 50 states or the District of Columbia, who do not reside in institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces. U.S. Confidence Indices Yale: som.yale.edu Buy on Dips: The percent of the population expecting a rebound the next day should the market ever drop 3% in one day. Crash (this is somewhat confusing): The percent of the population who attach little probability to a stock market crash in the next six months. The Crash Confidence Index is the percentage of respondents who think that the probability is strictly less than 10% . Valuation: The percent of the population who think that the market is not too high. Assets: Securities Held Outright: U.S. Treasury Securities: Wednesday Level FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org The total face value of U.S. Treasury securities held by the Federal Reserve. Purchases or sales of U.S. Treasury securities by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) are made in the secondary market, or with various foreign official and international organizations that maintain accounts at the Federal Reserve. FRBNY's purchases or sales in the secondary market are conducted only through primary dealers. Assets: Other: Repurchase Agreements: Wednesday Level FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org Repurchase agreements reflect some of the Federal Reserve's temporary open market operations. Repurchase agreements are transactions in which securities are purchased from a primary dealer under an agreement to sell them back to the dealer on a specified date in the future. The difference between the purchase price and the repurchase price reflects an interest payment. The Federal Reserve may enter into repurchase agreements for up to 65 business days, but the typical maturity is between one and 14 days. Federal Reserve repurchase agreements supply reserve balances to the banking system for the length of the agreement. The Federal Reserve employs a naming convention for these transactions based on the perspective of the primary dealers: the dealers receive cash while the Federal Reserve receives the collateral.
DJ:DJI
by NeoButane
4
#btcusd - Questions, Questions, QuestionsWonderful Sunday morning Traders! Hand on heart, you are sitting here watching all those nice charts and forecasts and assumptions and predictions? And the ONLY thing that comes out of it is a chart like this? Congratulations, you belong to the big majority of those who are interested in technical analytics but completely overwhelmed by the amount of controversial opinions. The big issue with this is, it is as simple as the actual price action itself. Over the years I have learned, that trying to forecast a price development is numbing and paralyzing you and keeping you back from actions, when they are needed. Who on earth wants to answer all those question marks? I can´t, you can´t, no one can! Trying to catch bottoms / tops, hodling or forecasting by following assumptions that can´t be made have cost a lot of you, a ton of money and made others filthy rich. Start taking this serious, start taking trading as what it is, a day by day fast-paced business where decisions from yesterday are worthless tomorrow. Stop being paralyzed. Cryptocurrency market is FAR too young to make any sort of long-term spot-on predictions. It´s 50-50 guys, live with it and start USING this fact to your advantage. Some people laugh at those like me who more or less never say, it´s going up or down. I am saying it will go up or down, of course it will, at least I am able to make a plan for both directions and won´t sit there in the end crying over my wrong assumption and lick the wounds of my broken self-confidence. Be as choppy as the price and you will succeed. ------------------------------- Warm regards, Nerubica My open group: t.me/nerugroup Alerts: NeruSuite Alerts XBT: t.me/nerusuite_alerts Divergence Alerts BTC: t.me/nerudivs Cryptopedia & Cheatsheet Bot: (under construction) @NerubicaBot in Telegram Web: www.nerusuite.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Gl4diator
1
The Gold Method IchimokuThe Gold Method – Ichimoku My New E-book, The Gold method – Ichimoku, is now available!!! This is the most complete publication that I have done. The first several chapters, explain in great detail, my methodology. The next 20 Chapters is a step by step, day by day application of the methodology for varying real-life market conditions. I will explain and you will see, as there are tons of screenshots, how each step of the methodology is progressed through. The end result will be knowing the best pair to trade, direction and specific entry and exits. You will be presented with high probability set-ups with good to great risk reward ratio and equally important when there are no high probability trade set-ups. Included with the purchase of the E-book is the following: 1) The Book itself…duh 2) Unlimited email support.* 3) The excel spreadsheets, for all pairs, that I use to help document my trades. 4) And most important, 4 Sessions in my training room, where we will work in live market conditions from 1:45 am est., to 4am est., on Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.** The Purchase price is $54.95, which unfortunately is non-refundable as the material and training are proprietary. As I am sure you can understand, once you have it, there is no way to get the genie back in the bottle. Because of that, I would urge you, before, you purchase my Ebook, to look at my trading posts and make sure for yourself that this is for you. Moreover, this is not a novice book, it does require basic trading knowledge. As most of you know, I combine Strength and Weakness, Correlation and Multiple time frame analysis with Ichimoku concepts. The result of which are High probability (85% or better) set-ups with good to great risk reward ratio (3-1 or better). I am not interested in the amount of trades, just the quality. If you want to just hit buttons and place trades, this is not for you. If you want to generate consistent income read on… To purchase the book please remit $54.95, via Paypal, to FXGold54@gmail.com Please use the same email you want the Ebook and Bonus material sent to. Please note that the material and training room invitation will only be sent to that e-mail address (unless you advise otherwise in advance). Sincerely, Allen S. Gold Lead Trader for FXGold, L.L.C.
Education
by AGold54
9