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How to be a Successful Forex trader Segement 12Ichimoku Daily Levels: The ichimoku Daily levels are like stone walls. price hits them and stops. As you can see above price came down to the Daily Kejun Sen (black line) at 1.63258 and reversed. You could have placed a buy order at that level with the following parameters: Entry: 1.6325 Sop: 1.6295 Risk = -30 pips profit target = 1.6403 (the daily Senkou B) Reward = + 73 Pips RRR = 2.43 - 1 that trade would have hit the Profit target for + 73 pips with a draw down of 19 pips You could then take a stop and reverse trade at the Daily Senkou B which would have been good for + 42 pips with a drawdown of only 5 pips. Although the daily Ichimoku levels are very powerful, the only issue is the amount of trades. Moreover, I would point out that you only want to trade the level the first time and reaches it. hope you guys like the post. Also I would like to thank everybody who has pre-ordered my new book which will be published this Monday September 30th. Those who have pre-ordered, will be receiving their copy tomorrow afternoon ( Friday September 27). In fact, from all the support I have gotten while working on the book has made me even more precise and focused resulting in one of my best performance months ever. Accordingly, I felt compelled to give a little love in the book to everybody who has pre-ordered the book, because it has in fact raised my game. I can't wait to work with each and everyone of you and assist you in becoming professional traders. warm regards, Allen
Education
by AGold54
6
How to be a Successful Forex trader Segment 11Contingencies: Plan for the worst and have contingencies. As was I preparing for today’s trading session, I lost my internet. But I had a contingency in place. There are 3 main issues traders can face, in addition to the market. 1. You can lose Power, 2. You can lose internet, 3. Your computer crashes It is prudent to have contingency plans in place for all the above as they usually happen at the worst possible time. Power: A good quality back-up will solve this problem and although 99% of the time it does nothing, when you lose power you will be ecstatic you have it. Internet, Although Internet has become more reliable, it still goes out as mine did today. I have on more than a few occasions driven to the 24/7 McDonalds to use their wi-fi in the middle of the night. However, most newer phones will allow you to use the phone as a Wi-fi Hotspot or better yet, tether it directly to your computer. That is what I did today and was able to trade. Computer issues. A good reliable, well maintained , computer is a must for the professional trader, it is your life blood. Not only should you run diagnostic and cleaning programs on a regular basis, you should blow out your computer at least every 3 months. It is absolutely amazing how much dirt/dust accumulates inside. In addition to maintaining your trading computer, you need to have a back-up, it can be an older computer and it does not need to have all the “bells and whistles” as your main computer but enough to run your essential trading programs. I hope you enjoy this post and find it helpful. I would appreciate if you "like" it and follow me. Stay Green my Friends :) Allen I am now accepting pre-orders for my book. As one of the Bonuses, I am providing 4 days of live training (limited to 10 traders per session) and those who pre-order, will receive priority placement. The cost of the book is $54.95 and will be available September 30. If you interested please send me an email to FXGold54@gmail.com
Education
by AGold54
1
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segment 10Correlation: Correlation is a key concept and can make the difference between both winning trades and losing trades as well as good trades becoming great trades. As those who follow me know, I trade almost exclusively the GBP pairs. Ideally, we want to see all the pairs moving in the same direction. That is a great sign that not only will the trade be successful but that there will be a big move. If there is a correlated directional move, there is a high probability that it will be a big move day. When that happens, once the trade is 1xRisk, we can move the stop to flat and let it run to the profit target. When the pairs are mixed, we have to be more cautious. If they are evenly split, 3 bullish and 3 bearish, we can take the first breakout trade, but not pullback trades. Once that trade is + 1xRisk, we can close ½ our position and move the stop to flat. This is how we make money on not so good days. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of this past week were great examples of correlated directional moves. While Thursday, was a split day where at the European open 3 of the GBP pairs were bullish and 3 were bearish. The GBP pairs sold off first allowing for a decent gain in GBPCHF and then rallied. If you master Correlation, your trading will go to the next level. I hope you enjoy this post post and find it helpful. I would appreciate if you "like" it and follow me. Stay Green my Friends :) Allen I am now accepting “pre-order” commitments for my book. I am not asking for any money now. But for those who pre-order, they will receive a priority for one of the bonuses that I am providing. The cost of the book is $54.95 and will be available September 30. If you interested please send me an email to FXGold54@gmail.com
Education
by AGold54
8
WHO I AMHey Guys, you have seen my posts here for awhile. I just did an interview with Apiary Fund this past Wednesday, which was well received, so I figured I would post the link here: www.youtube.com Apiary fund is an Awesome opportunity for traders to learn and then trade the fund's money after you qualify, If you would like more information, either shoot me a message or just google Apiary fund. Also if you consider joining, I do get a rebate, which i am willing to split (you have to use my referral link) Additionally, my new publication on how I trade is in the works and should be released the first week in October. it will provide a detailed, step by step (with plenty of screenshots) explanation of how I work through my methodology on a day by day basis. it will show how my trade-sets up develop under different market conditions as well as, and just as importantly, when I stay out of the market (like today). I would appreciate feedback/questions and if you be kind enough to hit the "like" button Stay Green My friends and Have a Great weekend :) Allen
by AGold54
12
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segment 9 How many Trades do you need? I am often asked or advised that I should post more trades and/or have a signal service. This brings me to how many trades do you need. Understand, that enjoying the lifestyle that trading affords is always something you want to strive for. Do you want to be strapped to your computer for 8-12 hours a day? where is the fun in that? if you have read my trade set-ups they are all designed to be high probability set-ups with Good to great RRR. However, there are only so many of those per day and I prefer to take the very best set-up there are. I risk 2% of of my capital per trade, always looking for at least a 3-1 RRR (meaning I am risking $1 to make $3). Simple math, If i net 2 winning trades per week, that is a 12% gain !!! As I often ask traders, "if you could make 10-12% per week but could only take 2 trades would you do it?" the answers always surprise me, from outright no, to yes but I would hate myself, to sure but i would trade on the side (point of question goes over head...lol). As a professional trader, your purpose is make Money, PERIOD!!! it is not to hit buttons. when reviewing your trades, are there low probability set-ups that you could eliminate? Are there trades where the RRR is less then 3-1, eliminate those ad see where you would be? I hope you enjoy this post and find it helpful. I would appreciate if you "like" it and follow me :) Stay Green my Friends :) Allen
Education
by AGold54
8
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segement 8Trading before News News is a fact of Forex trading and while their are several ways to trade the Actual release and it's aftermath, today I want to focus on trading before the News. Understand that the decision to enter the market before News is a conscious one and you don't have to do it. Prime examples are days where interest rates, for a currency you contemplating trading, or Non-Farm payroll are being released. if you intend on trading before news, you must determine whether you are going to stay in the trade during the release or get out. Personally, I usually do not trade on UK interest rate days because the market, at some point, tends to go flat ahead of the release. I certainly do not want to be in the market at the time of the release. The reason is simple, I have no control!! My methodology is based upon high probability trades with tight stops (20-30 pips). Having a position on at the time of the release gives up both my probabilities and my stops. there are 3 possible outcomes: 1) if the release comes out against me, I'm toast, I will take a hit 3 to 5 times what I plan on (as most of you know slippage will cause the stop to be disregarded and or executed at the extreme of the move). 2) it comes out as expected, the trade may be okay but the market may whipsaw and with an expected widening spread, might get taken out anyway. 3) if the news comes out in my favor, I may still get taken out by either a quick whipsaw or widening spread or a combination thereof. How can we make an informed decision on whether to trade or not to trade. In the last segment I talked about documenting and reviewing your trades. I use my documented trades to make my decision. This week, the UK had News releases on Tuesday, Wednesday and Today. On prior occasions, my trades set-ups were not effected by UK employment and retail sales (Tuesday and today's releases) so I opted to trade on those 2 days. yesterday (Wednesday) UK CPI was being released and historically my trades set-ups did not work, so I did not trade yesterday. (which was a good decision). The last thing you want to do is be in a trade ahead of news and "Hope" that the news bails you out. Far too often I have been bit by that bug. Please don't find yourself in that position. Just wait their are plenty of opportunities. In the next segment I will discuss how many trades do you need. I hope you enjoy this post and find it helpful. I would appreciate if you "like" it and follow me :) Stay Green my Friends :) Allen
Education
by AGold54
2
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segement 7Trade Review and Documenting Most successful traders review and document their trades, unfortunately, alot of new traders do not. "what's done is done, can't change it...." while that is true, you can, and imho must , learn from them. Each afternoon, whether I take a trade or not, I review the market and my potential set-ups, executions, and trade completions. I firmly believe reviewing your trades can help determine what went right, what went wrong and how to improve. Moreover, I track 2 valuable pieces of information, for me at least, which is DD (drawdown) and PP (Pip potential). If you follow my trades, you will know that I trade the same set-ups, over and over again...almost boring. You will have also noticed that I use a set pip stop loss and profit target. I can do this because I have documented, literally, thousands of my trades and I have determined statistically, where a trade reaches the point of no return. Understand that I risk 2% of my account on each trade. which means that the tighter my stop loss, the bigger my return will be. And as weird as it may sound, the occasional loss, using a tighter stop, does not matter as it easily covered by the successful trades. The screenshot above is how I documented Monday's trade in GBPCHF. It was Type 1 trade that was triggered on the breakout. I used a 25 pip stoploss and risked 2% of my account. Once the trade was up +25, I closed 1/2 my position and moved my stop to flat (I actually got +27.4). By doing that, I banked a 1% gain for the day, with no further risk. The trade continued to go my way but found support, retraced slightly, and I closed the remaining 1/2 for +54.8 pips. Very conservative trade management for sure but I ended up banking 3% on this trade. I will take that any day of the week :) I print the screenshot as well as save it under both trade type and in an all screenshot folder. I review the past week on Saturdays and a full month upon the month's conclusion. I also periodically review them to look for any trends or things that I may have missed. Moreover I track trades in an excel spreedsheet, that I will attempt to attach a screenshot of. This allows me to compile and easily access my data. I hope you enjoy this post and find it helpful. I would appreciate if you"like" it and follow me :) Stay Green my Friends :) Allen
Education
by AGold54
16
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segement 6Measuring Success and Goals As a Professional trader, you have 1 goal...Make money!! That said, traders like to measure their success differently. Some use pips, some use wins v. losses, personally I use daily return. Understand my focus is on generating income and my mantra is "keep stacking positive days" Imho, using pips to measure success can be misleading, I know of traders that will brag about making 300 pips, when they traded 10 micro lots for a 30 pip move. Obviously, the same could have been accomplished by trading 1 mini lot for the same 30 pips. Don't get me wrong, breaking your position down has a strategic purpose, if you have multiple profit targets or another reason to do so just understand that it was a 30 pip move and not a 300 pip move. Win/Loss Ratio can also be deceiving. if you have an inverted (negative) Risk Reward Ratio (RRR) then win/loss ratio means nothing. You most often see this with advertisement's for EA's where the claim is 95% win rate, or something along those lines, and then you look at the trading history to find out the profit target are small 2-5 pips and the stops huge 75-100 pips. Again, don't get me wrong win/loss ratio is important as long as the RRR is not wildly inverted...(Scalpers for instance will often have a negative RRR but usually not more then 1-3). Which brings me to daily % return, which, imho, is the best way to measure success. it is the the great equalizer. For example, if I told you Trader A makes, on average $500 a day, while Trader B makes $200, you might say that Trader A is a better Trader. However, if I then told you that Trader A has a $100K account while Trader B only has a 10K, that clearly changes things because now you realize that Trader A although making more money is only generating .5% per day while Trader B is generating 2%. Big difference. Moving forward, Trader B's account will increase to the point where he will surpass Trader A's account. Hence why, imho, measuring success in daily, or weekly, % return is the best way. All this leads me to Goals. I am often asked "what should my goals be" and this is the most loaded trading question there is. I say that because it does not matter what I can do, or what any other trader can do, it only matter what YOU can do at Your Current Skill Level . Psychology in trading is so important and permeates all aspects of it. Knowing what other traders can generate can be disheartening, even if, you are a good trader! I feel the best goals a trader can have are 1) a daily/weekly % return that their current skill level permits and 2) constantly working to improve. It is number 2 that is most important. Their are so many ways to improve one's trading. More precise entries, better exits, smaller stops, larger profit targets, better trade selection, better money management, and the list goes on and on. Reviewing and documenting your trades is so important in this process (and will be the topic of my next educational post). Today, for instance, I did not have a valid set-up, so I did not trade! Understand I get up at 1;15 am est., everyday and start analyzing the market. I am up and I am ready to trade, however, their are times when it is better not to. As you know yesterday, we hit on 2 Solid trades, their is no reason to give any money back on a bad trade. I'm greedy that way...lol I hope this post is informative and helps. If it does, I would appreciate if you "like" it and follow me :) Stay Green my Friends:) Allen
Education
by AGold54
23
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segement 5Methodology v Strategy Some traders use the words interchangeably, I do not. A strategy is a set of conditions that signal you to enter the market, for example, A moving average crossover, RSI going into oversold/overbought and then reversing, Divergence, etc. and combinations thereof. A Methodology, on the other hand, is a systematic approach to the market that a trader does on a daily basis. It is this process that leads to trade set-ups. The following is how I approach the market each day: First, I do a top down analysis starting with the monthly moving to the daily and then the 60 min Timeframe. Second, I do a strength and weakness analysis of each of the following currencies AUD, CAD,CHF, EUR,GBP,JPY,NZD and USD. From this I derive their relative strength from the previous day. This gives me a) A directional bias and b) the best pair to trade (Strongest v weakest) Third, in the hour before the European open, I analyze the 60 min chart, primarily focusing on how they correlate with Ichimoku theory. Fourth, I drop down to the 15 min chart, which what I trade off of. I look for top down alignment on each pair. The pair with the best alignment is the one I will trade. Fifth, using Ichimoku and alignment, I either confirm, or change the directional bias from strength/weakness analysis. Sixth, I mark the most recent Support/resistance, which I call the Asian box. Seventh, From all of the above, I now have the best pair, direction and usually both a breakout entry or pullback entry. Eighth, correlation, I look for all of the same currency to move together, For instance this morning, as shown in the chart above, only GBPAUD was a Buy breakout, while all the other GBP pairs were sells. Hence the reason I did not post or take the GBPAUD trade. (which would have gotten about 10 pips before crashing). Ninth: Execute, collect your money, go to the Beach. If you like this idea, please push like and follow me, it motivates me to post ideas more often. Stay green my Friends Allen
Education
by AGold54
15
How to Be a Successful Forex Trader Segment 4Trade Identification How many times have you "Missed" a trade. Once traders have a trading plan, they spend their time looking for set-ups. I would urge to take the next step which is Trade identification. I am not talking about clicking on a chart and seeing if your set-up is there. You want to be able to look and a chart and project what it can do and determine if market action will create a tradable set-up. This morning, as you can see on the chart above and my posted trade idea, when I was analyzing GBPNZD, I did not have a valid trade set-up. Specifically, although Price was below the Daily and 15 minute Kijun-Sen, as well as the cloud, it was above the 60 minute Kijun-Sen...which makes it a no-trade for me. However, I understand and recognized that if price closed below the 60 Kijun-Sen, I would have a valid Type 2 Set-up. I was able to post as such and better yet able to Bank some profit :) Most traders study price action but they do not forward think what the market can do. Thinking about what the market can do (up, down, sideways), and then applying that to your trading methodology to determine trading opportunities will, imho, greatly enhance your trading skills and you will enjoy watching the market play out the way you predicted (and so will your Bank account) I Hope this helps, stay Green my Friends Allen PS If you like this education material, please push like and follow me, so i will post more :)
by AGold54
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segment 3DCCS Disease: CCS Disease is a disease many new traders are afflicted with and it can be fatal!! CCS disease is short for "constantly changing strategies". Certainly, I firmly believe that a trader must find a trading strategy that fits both their personality and the time they have to trade. However, once you find a strategy that you like, imho, you must back test the heck out of it!!. Figure out how it responds to different market conditions, is it a strategy that can only used when the market is in a range or trending, can be used before news, after news. How big of a stop is needed, How far will it run... trade parameters are essential but more importantly, Build confidence in your strategy. without the confidence that your strategy will work, you leave yourself susceptible to the psychological terror the market can cause. I have tried alot, probably well over a 100 strategies in my trading career. the truth is that if I would have properly back tested then and stuck with them I would have been successful sooner. if you test a strategy and it has an 75% win rate (which is pretty damn good), that still means you will lose 25% of the time. Unfortunately, it does not mean that out of 100 trades your first 10 won't be losses and which point you give up and move on. Been there, done that. So I would urge you to back test your strategy so you have at least 100 trades and then forward test the strategy for at least 100 trades before you change. I hope this Helps, stay green my Friends Allen ** The Above chart is an example of how I document my trades-- every trade. I also use a spreadsheet to keep track of the data.
Education
by AGold54
5
AUDUSD - How i traded it into the FED Rate and managed my risk.Hello All I thought i would post a video of how i completed my analysis and entered 6 trades in total for AUDUSD. All with different lot sizes dependant on approach and also how I managed my risk going into the FED news, and how with 6 trades triggering at different times (risking 1% of my capital for each trade) - I only had 3% at risk at anyone time which I have now reduced to just 1.5%. Thanks for your time in watching my video, i hope you find it interesting. Duncanforex.com is coming in the next 10 days. If you want to, you can go to the website now and register your interest and also be eligible to obtain discount vouchers for the training course once the site is live. Thanks Duncan
Education
by UnknownUnicorn483829
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segment 3CBACK TESTING CONT.: High probability set-ups To be a consistently good trader, you must trade in a consistent manner. As those of you who follow me and review my trade idea’s know, they are the same, almost boring. You see Type 1 (Shown above) or Type 2 trades all the time and they look all the same. EXACTLY!!! That is what you need. If you have taken (either live or back tested), and documented, the same set-up numerous times, you can develop a statistical basis for the probability of that trade type’s success. IMHO, this is a critical element to achieving long term Success. I believe, if you know statistically, the probability of a trades success then you will be more confident in it and allow it to play out. Moreover, if you have a method that is not quite up to snuff, then get rid of it. I would urge you to be more selective in your trade process and only look for trades that you know, through your back-testing, have a high probability of success. This is Quality over quantity. Stay green my Friends Allen ** The Above chart is an example of how I document my trades-- every trade. I also use a spreadsheet to keep track of the data.
Education
by AGold54
32
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segment 3BBACK TESTING CONT.: Picking up from my last Educational post, Segment A... Pip Potential (PP) is a key component for me as it allows me to statistically determine how far a trade will run. In all my trades, I want, at the very least, a 3-1 risk to reward ratio (RRR). Basically I want to make $3 for every $1 I risk. Please understand and, this is very important to long term success, if you use a 3-1 RRR, or better, you can have a win rate of approximately 35% and still be profitable. YES, only 35% and still be Profitable!!! That is how you stack the odds in your favor :) Determining how far a trade is likely to run can be done a number of ways, you can use the daily ATR, pivot points, support/resistance or, as I do statistically. Any way you do it, you NEED to do it. Unfortunately, I know several traders who get into trades without thinking about where they are going to get out and that is problematic in the long term. (I always reference the long term because that is where you need to focus on, not 1 trade but rather 100 or 1000 or 10K trades...that is how your trading success will be determined). All off the above can be revealed through back testing :) If you think about your maximum draw down you can determine your stoploss, similarly, if you determine how far a trade will, probably, run you can determine your profit target. Combine the 2 and you have your Risk to reward ratio (RRR) and from that you can determine, if you should even take the trade. Personally, I never, ever, buy into resistance or sell into support. it may turn out to be a great trade but for me the Risk outweighs the reward. I hope this helps and please comment and ask questions or even make suggestions as to a topic you would like me to address. In my next post, I will cover how to determine High probability set-ups. Allen
by AGold54
8
How to be a Succesful Forex Trader Segemnt 3ABACK TESTING: Some traders find it helpful other do not. Back-testing is, imho, the most critical part of trading Back-testing the proper way, although arduous, provides incredibly valuable data. It is the Ditch digging of trading but well worth it. I have come to embrace back testing and reviewing my trades religiously and in this day and age of automation, I have found it best, for me at least, to go back to 2am est (when I start trading and scroll forward bar by bar looking for my set-ups, my entries and my exits. In fact, I spend more time reviewing and planing my trades than I actually spend trading. While this method is not for everybody and it is time consuming, I firmly believe it is well worth it for the following reasons: First and foremost, it builds confidence in your trading methodology. Seeing how your trades set-up, execute and finish while observing what the market does will allow you to stay in a trade when it is either taking heat or going your way because you will have "seen" it before. Second, it will allow you to build a statistical base for your trades. For me the 2 most important pieces of data that I look for are 1) DD (drawdown) and 2) PP (Pip Potential). This has allowed me to determine how much of a stop I usually need (point of no return for a trade) and how far the trade will run. DD, the Draw down, I find this information most useful as my position size is based on my stoploss. For example, I risk 2% of my capital per trade, so if my stoploss is 10 pips I can use a position size 10 times larger than if my stop was 100 pips. Obviously, the bigger position size the more bang for my Pips I am getting. I hope this helps and please feel free to comment and ask questions, I will continue this topic in my next post. Allen
by AGold54
2
GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO GO LONG ON USDCAD A decent opportunity for USDCAD has opened up on the 1hr . I will be looking for price to retrace 50% of that Bullish impulse. Should price move to that zone, i will be entering with 1% capital risked. Both Stop loss and Take profit have been marked with a risk to reward ratio of 1:2. Remember to always manage your risk on every trade because no trade is guaranteed to be a winner. Your job as a trader is to have an objective edge with every trade taken with proper risk management. Happy trading all :)
Long
by Malika_Analysis
USDJPY LOOKING GOOD FOR BULLS!USDJPY is showing some great bullish potential and is currently consolidating ( trading sideways) and creating bullish divergence. I will be looking for a bearish retracement of 50% of the bullish impulse move ( point 1 to point 2). Should price moved towards this zone, I will be going long with 1% capital risked. Considering price is consolidating as such, there is a possibility that price may re- test the trend line and go long from there. I will update my analysis accordingly. SL (Red line) - Should price move to this zone my edge will be invalidated. TP (Green line) - Take profit is set at twice the length of the retracement thus creating an opportunity with a 1:2 Risk to reward.
Long
by Malika_Analysis
2
Could ECM serve a purpose for the Crypto Market?Hi there, i'm sorry to say but i can't give any substantial input because Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is far beyond my Kung Fu and a lot of precious content is behind a pay-wall. I would like to know if there is anyone here willing to share his experience and knowledge about ECM and whether there are chances e.g. to build correlations and thus indirectly make a use of ECM for the crypto market or not. Or whatever purpose it might serve. All i can say is that ECM is based on Pi which is, like fractals and fibonacci numbers, one of the gifts from mother nature we can use to analyze charts. To get a comprehensive overview on ECM and it's inventor Martin Armstrong i recommend watching the documentary "The Forecaster". After watching it, i felt like i just faced awesomeness. (: You might hate him, you might love him. It doesn't matter here. ECM adds another view to complete the picture as a whole. This is the only thing that should matter. I have added USDJPY to show how nicely a price might follow ECM cycles. I'm looking forward to interesting comments. Sincerely Source: Economic Confidence Model – When One Nation Peaks Another Bottoms
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by EduardZimmermann
7