Looking for a major retrace soonStill currently in a long position since $260 and waiting for signs of a reversal. We could either fade out here or go parabolic into the $300s. Considering the news catalyst, I think we will probably go parabolic sooner rather than later and meet resistance around the same place as last time, where I will start looking for shorts. If the trend stays healthy and volume isn't extraordinary, I may keep partial longs and wait for another breakout.
Either way, the top of this channel looks like a good target for longs if you've been long. What happens after that is what will decide the overall trend. We will either make a higher low and continue up or crash down below baseline support, which is a bad sign.
It all depends on the speed. If we approach $310-$320 sooner rather than later with large volume, then it's a short signal with a lower low on shorter time frames for confirmation.
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Confirmation
Entering our projected long with confirmationGBPCHF
Price has been in a W-uptrend quite some time now.
It recently respected W S&R and started a new daily uptrend (last couple of weeks). A few days ago we broke a triple tapped daily trendline.
The Trade:
Following our earlier projection, we now have a nice confirmation candle*, closing higher then the previous bear candle. This is an ideal spot to take the trade with a slight retracement. Our TP is projected at some very strong S&R, optionally u can opt 50% out at the pink line, which is less strong resistance. TP'ing higher probably isn't very profitable because a retrace from the blue line is most probable.
*Note that with confirmation, the move is just a lot more probable. It's never a 100% certainty. I'll follow up price action during my trade also, and evaluate if it supports or hints for resisting the move.
Update 28/04: Price is using 1.4923x line to come back down again. I'm looking for respects on previous S&R (the line at 1.4812x adjusted a bit to 1.4782x). Also I'm keeping an eye on our upwards trendline. Trade still looks valid, this week we'll know to run with smallish profit, or stay in and go for our TP.