Confirmation
Supply and Demand Confirmation Entries ☑️The thing that catches most traders out is they don’t know what zone will hold, that’s why it’s always best to wait for the higher time frame zone to be mitigated, wait for the break of structure to confirm the trend is changing, then execute. Wait for confirmation ☑️
NZDJPY Potential Bearish Continuation!Hello Traders,
In Today's trading session we will be monitoring NZDJPY for a Selling opportunity in and around 84.7 area. Once we get a retest confirmation the trade will be executed and shared with our premium subscribers.
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USDMXN Supply And Demand AnalysisSee picture for analysis
Feel free to share your thoughts.
NOT SELLING USDMXN (ONLY BUYING)
EDUCATION - Types Of Confirmations 📚When trading, it is important to have confirmations. Confirmations are when price moves in a a particular way which tells us that our setup is valid and even, ready for entry.
We have 3 main types of confirmations.
1. Trendline Break
This confirmation is very simple yet very effective. When price is following a trend, you can often find that there's a trendline that can be placed. This trendline is used as a guide.
eg. When price stays below the trendline = bearish
when price goes above the trendline = bullish
Entry Method: Entry on break of the trendline with stops below the lowest price before the break
2. Break of structure
Price tends to test and respect significant price points.
e.g. We can draw a structure level when price rejects a certain price point and assume that when price stays below that level = bearish
When price breaks above that structure level = bullish
Entry Method: Entry on break of structure OR retest of that structure level
3. Moving Average Cross Over
Using 2 moving averages can help you ascertain whether price is bullish or bearish. In the crypto market, the 100 and 200 moving averages are often used.
eg. When the 100 moving average is below the 200 moving average = bearish
When the 100 moving average is above the 200moving average = bullish
Entry Method: Once there's a bullish cross over (100 over 200), we can assume price is bullish. We can look for pullbacks for entry
COMBINATION
Confirmations can be most reliable when more than one is used at the same time e.g. trendline break and break of structure.
Please note that these types of confirmations work with ALL market, whether it is Crypto or Forex.
See below for various examples of using confirmations when entering the market, particularly the crypto market.
BITCOIN
ETHEREUM
LITECOIN
Saveable post:
BTC in accumulation from 4/2021. Long-term bullish triangle!Today I want to present my main scenario. As long as 37400 holds I give this scenario the highest probabillity. I have identified an expanded triangle in the WB of the triagnle. Foundation for this scenario is WB which made HH and WC which has corrective nature and was unable to make LL thus it made HL. Now we are moving up in WD which is a complex correction with heavily overlapping structure. It is however still making HHs and HLs. As long this is the case we should be bullish. We have already seen some bullish indications such as D engulfing and swept liquidity below 39k. The probabillity of this scenario increases if we manage to get the confirmations labelled on the chart. If this scenario is correct we should finished the triagnle by summer and ultimately move to ATHs towards the end of the year (and perhaps reached the mythic 100k).
We are forming our gameplan based on the indentified patterns which give us higher probabillity (they have been proven statistically significant) which in the long run should give us an edge (alfa = overperformance) in the markets. However, we should also be prepared for the alternative scenarios with lower probabillity so that we dont suffer large losses or get wiped out, even if it means limiting our profits and cutting losses when we are proven wrong. As TWC says, the only thing you can control in the markets is how much are you going to lose.
Unconfirmed bearish scenario for BTC. Watch out!Today I present to you inverted W chart of BTCUSD. We can see clear impulse down. Because we can count five waves we should form a scenario where PA will correct the impulse. So far we have gotten a reaction from lows and a HL which is the first indications of reversal. To confirm this idea we should see break of wave B of the recent correction in the channel and break of W4 of the large impulse. Moreover, this break would also confirm a Head and shoulders formation. When this happens, we should adopt this idea as a main scenario. Until then we should prefer bullish scenarios which will result in trend continuation. The move from the lows also doenst look that much impulsive and I tend to indentify it as a corrective move which supports the bullish scenarios.
We are forming our gameplan based on the indentified patterns which give us higher probabillity (they have been proven statistically significant) which in the long run should give us an edge (alfa = overperformance) in the markets.
$ETH Short Scalp Set Up 15M Time Frame Update The head and shoulder formation played out just as I expected. Congrats to those who entered this short while many others longed.
$ETH has gone down around 4% confirming the head and shoulder pattern I managed to catch before the quick dump.
With the market still looking bullish, we could potentially see the price action move down a little more, even bouncing from the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib retracement levels.
Confirmation Sell For BTC/USDBTC is trading at 47,600 and moving higher. Here are two levels on my radar:
Monthly 50% Retracement, $50,975
Monthly 38% Retracement, $46,721
Moving deeper into today’s session, I’ll be looking for price exhaustion beneath that 38% level. Here's the trade:
1) Wait for a 4-hour bar close beneath $46,721
2) Enter a short beneath $46,721
3) Initial stop above the most recent Swing High on 4-Hour chart
4) Apply a 1:1, 1:2, or 1:3 risk vs reward ratio
This is a countertrend play, so confirmation of price exhaustion is a must.
Double Bottom Chart PatternCompany info
Wave Life Sciences Ltd., is a clinical-stage genetic medicine company that designs, optimises and produces novel stereopure oligonucleotides through PRISM. It is developing oligonucleotides target ribonucleic acid to reduce the expression of disease-promoting proteins or restore the production of functional proteins or modulate protein expression.
Both the WVE and AGTC in my other trade idea have the same sector. The main ETF for this sector is the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund. However, there is an issue. Both these stocks are near all-time lows while the ETF is near an all-time high. So, the stocks are lagging behind. So, if you are going to trade these stocks be wary that they are going against the general market trend and there could also be other reasons as to why these stocks are not following the market.
Double Bottom Analysis
Type:
Eve and Adam
Length between Valleys:
5 weeks
Volume Trend:
Larger on the left valley
Breakeven Failure Rate:
12%
Throwback Rate:
65%
Average Rise:
50%
Price Target:
3.66
Percentage Change:
51%
The double bottom analysis for this stock is the same as for AGTC. The length between the two valleys is within the ideal range at 5 weeks. Concerning volume , it is larger on the left side but not significantly. There does seem to be a downward trend of volume going from the left valley to the right valley. But this trend begins at the end of the left valley at the price spike that follows. The great thing about this patterns is, the stock is very close to their all-time lows. The left valley low was the all-time low. This means the stock has great upward potential. However, as stated above, the stock is not following the general market trend. Also, the stock has been on a downward trend since its inception. Regardless, the pattern is following all ideals even though the stock isn't. So, the pattern strengths are 3/5.
Impulsive Upthrust in TechBreakout above falling wedge TL will confirm trend reversal. Measured move correction is completed on Ukraine invasion.
Expect 0.50 - .62 Fibo pullback, briefly then rocket higher. Retest of breakout will exclude fakeout like we had on last lift (overlay).
Moving up from oversold on RSI, wave trends indicating buy signal.
A reversal pattern appeared with USDJPYDaily time frame.
Structure: Uptrend.
A divergence signal with MACD and a double top reversal pattern appeared.
Waiting for the falling price to break the Key level at 113,500 and have a signal to confirm the downtrend, then we can look for selling opportunities.
The profit target is the 109,000 price zone.
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Wish you all have a good trading day!
Key level broken and buying opportunity with AUDCADH1 time frame.
Structure: Uptrend.
The key level at 0.91000 of the retracement move was broken.
Waiting for a confirmation of a bullish signal can find a buying opportunity.
Profit target is 0.92000 price zone.
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Wish you all have a good trading day!
Key level broken and buying opportunity with BTCH1 time frame.
Structure: The downtrend ended when Key level at 42800 was broken.
Wait for the retest and the bullish confirmation signal to find an opportunity to enter a buy order.
The profit target is the 45500 price zone.
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Wish you all have a good trading day!
Divergence signal and selling opportunity in GBPUSDH2 time frame.
The uptrend shows a divergence signal with the MACD indicator.
Wait for the price to break the Key level at 1.35000 and have a retest to confirm the downtrend, then you can find selling opportunities.
The profit target is the 1.33600 and 1.32500 price zone.
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Wish you all have a good trading day!
Key level broken and buying opportunity with EURGBPH4 time frame.
Structure: The downtrend ended when Key level was broken at 0.84200.
Wait for the retest and the bullish confirmation signal to look for buying opportunities.
Profit target is 0.86000 price zone.
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Wish you all have a good trading day!
Key level broken and buying opportunity with XAGUSDH2 time frame.
Structure: The downtrend ended when the Key level at 23.000 was broken.
Wait for the price to retest and the uptrend confirmation signal to appear, then you can find buying opportunities.
The profit target is the 23.800 and 24.800 price zones.
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Wish you all have a good trading day!