Confluence
SOXX 5smaNotice how the 5sma has been resistance for the SOXX for the past 12 trading days (red oval).
This tells us that short-term, SOXX has to break the 5sma to get out of its current down-trend.
The purple line is the 50sma, which is now also resistance, as we crossed below it, and is now touching the 5sma.
Materials at multi-level supportMaterials sector has been showing relative strength. It is actually 3th in YTD performance, after 1. Technology, 2. Discretionary (Mega-cap lead sectors)
Today it is resting on the 100ema, which has been supportive since march 23rd crash.
This level is also coinciding with early 2020's high, as well as 4 other tests of the support; including a failed breakout, which worked the next time it tried.
OBV has been supportive of the uptrend. (BULL)
RSI showing slight divergence as the last bottom late September has a slightly higher RSI(10) than the current one. (BEAR)
A strong close below $60 would deny the support, and make the chart a short-term bearish one.
Short on Pullback & Fundamental Update on JPYTechnicals:
-Respectable descending TL, pullback for a retest expected
-0.618 fib retracement
-Previous support now acting as resistance
-MA50 supporting the bearish trend very well with further downside expectancy
Fundamentals:
Investors started moving their money into "safe haven" currencies (such as the USD & JPY) due to the upcoming election, the fiscal stimulus talks, and the recent European lockdowns. With so much uncertainty across the board, the safest option we have is to continue shorting currency pairs trading against USD & JPY, hence one of the reasons for shorting EURJPY.
Gold Long Idea with Confluence AnalysisGold has been in a downtrend for about two months now. It formed a Rising Wedge Pattern which deceived a lot of Traders to go long. The bears are still in control. The Support of the Wedge has been broken and retested, so we should be expect a downward movement soon.
Pivot Analysis shows that Gold is still Strongly Bearish. Gold is also below the 100 SMA and 200 SMA on both 1-Hour Chart and 4-Hour Chart. The next buying area based on Confluence is in the Green Circle in the Chart, where we have Three Types of Supports. So when price gets there, we should prepare to buy.
We also have a Void that has also formed with a Quasimodo Fakeout Pattern too, So if price goes up to fill that void, we should prepare to sell at the the Red Circle at the top of the Chart near the Weak Resistance.
But for now, we focus on the Green Circle for a Buy as this is more likely to happen.
As usual we enter with a tight stop loss to reduce our risk, in case the market reverses and changes direction. Don't forget to use good risk management too. Cheers!!