GBPAUD: A Case Study in Midpoint ConfluenceProbability of a midpoint projecting a valid future reversal point is increased if multiple midpoints show confluence at the same zone. Case in point, here the Swing low A, followed by midpoint E (breakout midpoint), projected a swing high at F.
However, there was a smaller swing along the way which also hinted at swing high F: Swing high B, followed by midpoint C (split between the two strongest down bars in that swing) suggested a swing low at point D. This was a valid buy area on it's own. But better yet, the 1.618 extension of swing B-C-D gave additional credibility to the expected swing high of swing A-E-F.
When multiple different swings line up and point to similar reversal zones such as here, the market can be considered to be in a very harmonious state and such setups have better odds of resulting in a winning trade.
Confluence
AUD/USD Long SetupAUD/USD Long Opportunity
4h:
I have decided to take this trade if given the opportunity because it coordinates with my preset R:R .
We are currently (12/24/18) at a major support level (.7038) tested last & respected since Oct 5th, 2018. We did close below on the daily this only to retest and reject from top of daily (green) demand zone @ .7072.
Also, we are currently following a steep bearish trend line so far well respected, with the 14 EMA acting as dynamic resistance to help confirm we are still bearish.
I believe we will continue bearish in an attempt for the market to retest the .70000 psychological level and possibly retest an old trendline as support starting from .80000 psychological level, which was shown to act as a resistance for the market's bearish trend (shown on daily) since Jan. 30th 2018. This level falls at a confluence with the steep bearish trendline @ .6972. I believe IF the market comes to retest that level it will be a bull trap/wick fill. My stopless is set at .6967 which is 5 pips below confluence in case it goes south.
The possibility of the market (in my eyes) blowing past the .70000 major psychological level without rejections straight to the confluence of trendlines @ .6972 is unlikely. I will set an alert for tradingview to notify me around .70000 psychological level, and enter a long position (with lot size determined based on 10% risk rule applied to # of pips for stop loss), either on the first test/rejection wick or wait for a double bottom after the initial rejection for additional confirmation.
TP is set at .7196 right below the next daily supply zone/minor psychological level of .7200.
This trade has a 6.31 Risk:Reward ratio, with a 31 pip stop loss and a 198 pip take profit.
Please apply your own throughts/analysis to mine and don't forget to share your thoughts and follow for more analysis
Aaron Leibowitz
Free World Trading
Confluence II: Long Live Lord ConfluenceReferring to the previous bit, this 4h chart shows some intra-timeframe confluence with the aforementioned 1h chart.
Using multiple timeframes to validate your edge is essential to having sound trades, and trades that you can learn from. Without having a reliable standard to judge each trade by, how can you contemplate your wins and losses with any use?
As a trader one evolves psychologically and strategically. Things are often being tweaked as the market is always tweaking the fuck out, but having a stone cold setup across multiple timeframes will really help sus out the effectiveness of any given approach over a sufficient amount of trades to avoid strategically 'walking in circles'.
Anything can happen, and while confluence in any form is often 'magnetic', it's important to have eyes wide open to the bigger picture as well. If you're getting tunnel vision you're already in the emotional danger zone.
ConfluenceThis is an untouched glance at what I look at from time to time, and today on the darkest day of the year I'm going to talk about confluence. Confluence is just when a series of factors align, and in the TA world it's just when your personal suite of indicators and signals aligns with your strategy.
In this 1h timeframe slice of the 'blue chip' of the crypto markets we can see that price has broken a trend line, an Ichi structure, and the relative Bollinger basis. The red line below marks an S/R flip from the previous dump, which has confluence with the Fibonacci retracement AND the relative Kumo.
It's not exact, but nothing is.
Anything can happen, confluence is just something to utilize to bolster strategic edges and generally discern R with a sharper eye.
BTCUSD 2018 SpeculationMy Bitcoin Price Target for EOY 2018 = 4750
Lots of retail traders BOUGHT when price was consolidating at the 6,000 area at the key and obvious level of "support"
Once price broke down and people started to see -10%... -20%... -40%+ losses on their portfolio, now we have reached an area where so many retail traders are in the mindset of "I have LOST this much dollar value on my position... I need to close out of it because:
a) We are going into a new tax year
b) Christmas/Holiday is coming up --> need cash flow
c) Retail psychology being exploited... buy high, sell low and take losses
It would make sense to see everyone who has been getting out of the market now at these lower prices be taken advantage of since there are large amounts of liquidity available for professionals and institutions to now take short term positions.
I still believe we will eventually see bitcoin dip down to the structure near 2750, but in the SHORT TERM my money is on seeing Bitcoin go higher towards 4750 as we head into the new year.
Trading involves risk, im not a financial advisor and anything that you do with your money is at your OWN risk / discretion.
Practice risk management, demo trade until you're confident and here's to your success in trading my friends.
Harmonic Pattern resistance line trendline EURCAD shortAbove 3 to 1 risk ratio
looking good, might want to trail stop loss to the bottom, if you want to squeeze every last penny, but make sure to secure some profits as the price makes the way down towards the TP I set
Ignore the stochastic, that is for something else :P
Have fun
JL
EURJPY H4 - BEARISH CONTINUATION TRADE SETUPAs you can see from the chart price is in a clear bearish trend, and our goal is to look for a short entry.
Considering that price has made an ABC correction to an important confluence zone which comprises of resistance level, 61.8 Fib ratio, the mean value and 3rd rejection of descending trendline. We will able to go short on this pair after a clear break of the counter trend line.
Wish you best trading week ahead.
Follow me on Instagram: @TheKissForex
Finding The Bottom? On this chart you will see a couple things.
Moving average displayed in a transparent red and green with dotted lines. A form of Stoch on the top and triple RSI on the bottom.
I have 4 support lines charted out to watch for currently. The whales will defend that 5750 area and i wouldnt worry to much unless its a straight punch through. There are 3 confluence lines above and that is basically a fib retracement drawn from the last 3 highs where fib lines are right on each other. Those will serve as resistance areas prices.
I will keep diving into this with updates and keep yall updated! Have a great weekend, make sure you stay disciplined and be careful!
EURCAD SHORT Scenario.I don't normally look at this pair, But Papa Smurf Sent this trade idea
Through Swipe Trades app, Piqued my interest. I have come to the same conclusion that this
is becoming a falling pair< And I'll explain my synopsis.
Fibonacci Levels are Met at 61.8% - Nice structure behind it, Doesn't look like there, will hardly be
any resistance to the fact that,,, It also kissed the trendline, Maybe a little early but I have
A sentient sense that now is a good time to enter into the Short position.
Thank you Guys!
#Ozark...
P.S. Appreciate Rodneys work!
GBP/USD Short Setup- Breakout of parallel channel
- Confluence: 61.8 fibonacci level rejection on H4 which happens to be my H4 resistance level (1.3210)
- EMAs crossover with price action below supporting bearish bias
- Bearish sentiment on sterling with uncertainty looming over brexit
- Price seems to be heading back towards the 1.3000 psychological level
- 60 pips target with 30 pips stop
(2D) The eventual right shoulder $eurusdOANDA:EURUSD
Now threatening previous structure resistance, it's also the bullish alt bat pattern default first target, the 38% fib retracement.
The inverted head and shoulders default projection will put the price at previous structure support forged last March 1st, positioned at 1.2164.
The bearish deep crab pattern positioned at 161.8% extension on hold at 1.21, at confluence with the golden ratio at 61.8% fib retracement and also at left shoulder highs from September 8th 2017 to form the so expected and eventual right shoulder.
Trading below the head and shoulders neck zone will increase the probability to trade lower, and trading below the inverted shoulders, as previous support, will also increase the probability to retest the previous support, the bottom, or even lower.
Safe Trades;
NZDUSD Buy IdeaW1 - Continuing bullish divergence.
H4 - We have a confluence zone that has formed, hidden bullish divergence.
Price has currently reached this zone and until this zone holds, we may now start looking for buys with bullish evidences.
Invalidation: If the price breaks and holds below this confluence zone, then this setup will be invalidated.
Andrew's Pitchfork major "Energy Point" ahead for BTC @ $8388Lots of confluence of support and resistance at approximately $8388 on 8/08 at about 12 UTC.
These 'energy points', or confluence, can be a strong attraction for price action. I've been watching them for a little while, and they fascinate me.. I've seen price action do some pretty impressive stuff to hit these pitchfork points.. I am very curious to see if bitcoin taps this point exactly!
Confluence of fib, support and cloud in Bitcoin daily and 4 hourThis is my first idea. I'm not a trained anything and you should take this information as entertainment, not advice.
Just noticing a confluence of events.
1. On the 4h we're looking to move to the top of the cloud
2. Which coincides with horizontal support (purple dotted line)
3. Fib .382 retracement level
4. bottom of daily cloud.
Are we headed into the purple circle?