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Confluence

NZDUSD Big Short ContinuesHey traders! This one's a long shot but the risk is low and the setup fits my trading strategy. A bearish wolfe wave is complete after the trendline break was retested. The completion of E is confluent with the B-D parallel which is an indication that the pattern is complete and the trend may reverse. This reversal could mark the continued downturn of the pair toward the larger TF wolfe wave target and bottom of the daily TF triangle. See related idea for larger TF setup. GM
Short
by glennmercer
USDJPY Long: Multichannel ReboundUSDJPY may potentially produce a reverse head and shoulders pattern at the base of two descending channels. Two weekly pivots sit above price and are confluent with important fib levels. If price does not met entry, the trade will be cancelled and I may start to consider short opportunities. If SL is hit, there may be a wolfe wave complete just beyond the base of the demand zone. Bearish price action past 105.5 would indicate short bias. GM
Long
by glennmercer
AUDNZD Long: Expanding Wedge Complete at Critical LevelGreetings traders! AUDNZD has reached an important level. The 4H shows a nice expanding triangle that may add support near a potential point E. On the daily chart, there is strong support from a parallel channel. In addition to this, we have two precisely confluent fib levels (1.272AB=CD and 1.5AB extension). Since I'm seeing some pin rejection at the base of the channel, a tight stop may be placed below the pins. If price makes new lows, it is time to re-evaluate. If not, it may be possible to catch a larger move toward the missed monthly pivot for June which would mean major pippage and a trade with great R/R. Bullish Confluence: Expanding wedge support 1D Parallel channel support RSI Oversold 3 missed pivots above price, including an unhit pivot for June Happy trading!
Long
by glennmercer
1
NZDCAD Short: Wolfe Wave + Expanding Triangle at 50% RetraceAfter the RBNZ announcement cancelled the last NZDCAD short, a new opportunity has presented itself. A bearish WW has formed with the touch of the 2-4 parallel confluent with the 50% retracement level. We also have a potential E point of an expanding triangle complete which may mark a larger reversal from these levels. On the daily chart, the pair is contained within a bearish expanding triangle and this could present an opportunity to ride it down toward point E on the larger TF. The unhit pivot for June 2016 presents a nice target at which to take profit. Bearish Confluence: Bearish Wolfe Wave complete Expanding triangle 50% retracement level Descending expanding triangle on daily TF Unhit June, 2016 pivot below price Bearish RSI Divergence RSI Overbought Again, be mindful of news events. It is a good idea to wait until the Poloz speech at 11:15EST for entry as this may present significant CAD volatility. Happy trading to all!
Short
by glennmercer
AUDUSD Short: 5-0 Pattern, Channel Res, 50DSMA, and Weekly PivotHey Traders! It's been awhile since I've shared an idea, I've been working on automating my trading strategy! AUDUSD is approaching a critical level presenting us with an opportunity to enter a 2-3 week short with a nice R/R. The pattern that caught my eye is the bearish 5-0 which I've had success with in the past for 4H-1D charts. In addition to this, we have resistance from the weekly pivot, 50 day SMA, and a parallel channel confluent at the same level. Short entry is placed at the 5-0 "D" point with target at the 1.272 extension. I will likely move stop to B/E around the 50% move to target if triggered. Bearish Confluence: Bearish 5-0 pattern Bearish parallel channel resistance Weekly pivot resistance 50 day SMA resistance Bearish weekly channel Feels great to be back on TV, hope you enjoyed and good luck to all!
Short
by glennmercer
4
NZDCAD Short: Bat + Gartley + 2 Channels + Larger TF TriangleNZDCAD is forming a tight PRZ at which two potential harmonic patterns are tightly confluent. This area is also confluent with point 5 in an ascending channel and potential point 4 of a descending channel. Also, an AB=CD pattern, inherent to the completion of Gartley's, is confluent in this same area. On the higher TF, this move could mark the continuation down from the rebound at point E of the expanding triangle. Since there has already been a 50% retrace from point E, there is a potential to ride this move down to the completion of a bullish bat pattern which is where I've placed the target. Confluence in the PRZ: Bearish butterfly completion Bearish Gartley completion AB=CD Ascending channel resistance Descending channel resistance Larger TF expanding triangle Larger TF potential bullish bat Remember to assess your risk and be mindful of news events. The RBZ rate statement will be announced in under an hour!
Short
by glennmercer
GBPUSD TREND CONTINUATION BUY OPPORTUNITYWhen the market broke the 1.4480 resistance area to the upside the expectation became an eventual test of the 1.4710 resistance area. The market has pulled back to the 1.4480 broken resistance area which is likely to now become support on first test. If the 1.4480 area holds the market will likely retest the high of the breakout around 1.4660 and then potentially the 1.4710 resistance area. As long as the market holds above the 1.4403 swing low the bullish scenario remains intact. Buying at the 1.4480 zone with stops behind the 1.4403 zone and targets at the 1.4710 zone provides close to a 2:1 reward to risk trade opportunity.
Long
by AndrewNatter
GBPJPY TREND CONTINUATION BUYING OPPORTUNITYThe market has been trending higher making it's way towards the 162.50 resistance area. Price is currently pulling back towards support. The support zone is an area of confluence comprised of: the previously broken swing high within the uptrend which is now likely to act as support, and a cluster of Fibonacci retracements measured from the two most recent bullish price legs. If the bulls are able to hold the market above the previous swing low within the uptrend around 157.00, the market is likely to continue trending higher into the 162.50 resistance area. This provides bullish trend continuation traders an opportunity to position long at support with stops behind the the invalidation point looking for a move up to the 162.50 resistance area. If entering at the front of the support zone there is a 1.5:1 reward to risk. For better reward to risk a trader can wait and enter deeper within the support zone closer to the invalidation point. Aggressive traders may choose to enter on a limit as price enters the support zone, while more conservative traders can monitor price as it enters the zone for their particular entry signals. Update status
Long
by AndrewNatter
USDCAD bearish trend continuation opportunityMkt making lower lows & lower highs forming a downtrend. Currently the market is in a recovery rally and testing the previous swing high of the downtrend. This sets up a bearish trade opportunity at great location offering traders around a 3:1 reward to risk. Although the invalidation point for the downtrend is technically the 1.3215 resistance zone it makes sense to place stops above the 1.3295 swing point just above as there is still plenty of reward potential in the trade. Aggressive traders may enter on a limit at or near the resistance zone, conservative traders may wait for an entry signal within the resistance zone before entry.
Short
by AndrewNatter
USDJPY BEARISH TREND CONTINUATION OPPORTUNITYThe USDJPY has been putting in a series of lower lows and lower highs forming an organized downtrend on the daily chart . The market is currently in a recovery rally and approaching the 111.00 - 111.90 resistance zone. This area of confluence is comprised of the previous swing high of the downtrend, the lower edge of a descending triangle that was previously broken, and multiple primary Fibonacci retracements. Positioning short within the resistance zone with stops behind 111.90 invalidation point and targets at a retest of the low of trend around 106.00 offers traders almost a 3:1 reward to risk. Aggressive traders have the opportunity to short at or near the confluence zone on initial test. More conservative traders can monitor price as it reaches the zone and wait for any number of confirmatory entry signals.
Short
by AndrewNatter