EURCHF Longer Term Shorts - Massive Consecutive Candle count Really like the idea of shorts on this pair for a number of reasons, well 2 mostly! Firstly we're back up at the top of a descending channel and this pair has been falling for a long long time. And more perhaps more importantly is that the consecutive bullish candle count has never been this high since 1993 - it doesn't happen often and when it does it falls over. It's a probabilities play for sure but one I'll be taking.
Consecutiveupcandles
Gold Up 8 Straight Trading Days But Pace LackingGold is working today on its 8th consecutive trading sessions' advance. If we close in the green, it would notch the longest series of gains for the commodity since July of last year. The pacing on the other hand is lackluster. Over an 8-day ROC, we are not even at the highs of the month. What does that mean? It will be difficult to keep progressing as significant technical resistance comes into view.
SHORT - Nasdaq 100This one is fairly simple, on a 2 week chart the NDX has had 8 consecutive up candles where each has had its close greater than its open. This has only happened a handle full of times and holding this short for 3 candles has yielded these results in the NDX going back to 1985. The other times where there has been this sort of move has been highlighted with a white rectangle so feel free to scroll back on the chart to see :)
1999-02-01: Profit = +5.54 % | Run-up = +12.33 % | Drawdown = -1.11 %
2012-04-09: Profit = +8.94 % | Run-up = +9.22 % | Drawdown = -1.13 %
2019-04-15: Profit = +4.05 % | Run-up = +4.84 % | Drawdown = -2.90 %
2020-01-21: Profit = +6.29 % | Run-up = +11.06 % | Drawdown = -6.46 %
Keeping in mind that holding for 3 two week candles is 6 weeks so about a month and a half. Given how volatile the markets have been the drawdown for this position may likely exceed the maximum historical drawdown of -6.46% so be careful when sizing a position especially when using any type of leverage.
The estimated profit is just a straight average of the historical trades above so approximately 9-9.50% which would put NDX around 9500-9600. Still this is a time based exit so 3 candles but it is always useful knowing where the trade could end up just in-case you want to set a profit target.
This trade was actually set to open at today's open however fortunately it was an up day. Official short entry would be 10,487.10. So anything above or around it is swell.