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Consensio

All Eyes on ETHETHUSD is peaking over just over the 200 Daily EMA which has a lot of significance on where it will go next. The fact we've breached the 200 Daily EMA while BTCUSD continues to be rejected by it speaks to two different conclusions. 1.) ETHUSD is following it's own market now and not following the BTCUSD "Supercycle" which is bullish for ETHUSD, removing itself from the BTCUSD market and establishing it's own market paradigm will create even more growth. 2.) It's breaking from the pack of layer 1 utility tokens, massive market saturation has come fold in 2021 with SOL,XTZ, AVAX, ETC... ETH with it's slow transactions (13sec block times with 12TPS) and high gas fees made it a target for SOL and others which have faster block times and higher TPS. With the anticipation of ETH 2.0 moeny seems to be pouring into the ETH ecosystem with the burn continuing to the null address. Analysis the 20 EMA has bullishly diverged over the 50 EMA but still far from the 200EMA, however with the current price action the EMAs will rapidly follow up, if these EMAs can diverge over the 200 EMA we have achieved consensio and will continue long. The fact we have breached the 200 Daily EMA means we are making the resistance much weaker every time we push through it. Confusion If we can maintain levels above the 200 Daily EMA for one week, full steam ahead as the 20 and 50 daily EMAs wilil catch up to the 200 daily EMA "I keep telling my wife this isn't financial advise but she keeps loosing our monies." -KewlKat
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by kewlkat
XAU/USDWith the current state of the world economic stage: Russia/Ukraine, sanctions, inflation, logistics nightmare.... and Russia today re-adopting the gold standard. People will be looking for scare assets to allocate to. 715 days it took to reach the last ATH with the current state of things I think the market can do it in half the time, reaching a price level of 3k by E.O.Y. based of the 79% from bottom to ATH last run up. With the 20, 50 and 200 EMA having consensio and a clear divergence I believe that this trade is inevitable. The question of if gold is scarce is another question and not for the time being, most people believe it is so we will go with that. "Cheers my bag just got so much heavier" -KewlKat
TVC:GOLDLong
by kewlkat
Right into Resistance *UPDATE*Accumulation at 33-35k we bounced off the accumulation (a lot of buys at that levels) hedge funds and VCs moving into the space seems to be where they are buying, don't sell them your BTC! They are hoping you do, as predicted in previous publication we went right up into resistance the more we test the resistance level the weaker it will become. Wedging ourselves slightly above that resistance and the Icki cloud it was never going to hold as the was to much bearish pressure at those times. 43800 was our last support it doesn't look like it will hold due to the resistance level and the cloud on the daily candles, I would say we will dip to at least 41617 our next support level hopefully that will reset our RSI back in to neutral territory and our moving averages will pull up heading toward "consensio" . Remember once in the cloud that is a no trade zone as the volatility will be wiping out shorts and longs, if we get there, closing in the cloud on the daily candles..... The chart shows the predicament we are in, I am neutral at these levels as I have never seen a back side of a wave 7 off a double top, hopefully there will be a much more clear sign of what's to come in the following days and we can determine that the super cycle is dead. Until then. "She took my pants too, one more trade to get her and the pants back." -KewlKat
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by kewlkat
"Don't tell me what to buy, tell me when to buy it."Tyler Jenk's idea of #Consensio taught me to be pay attention to the 2,7, and 30 week moving averages to identify short, intermediate, and long-term trends. These averages are used to approximate the standard daily averages of 20/50/200 onto a weekly chart. The weekly closes are more important than the noise with each candle. #Consensio tells me to be cautious here and have some CASH available for a potential buying opportunity if price stays above the blue line on this dip. Peter Brandt, Aksel Kibar, and Ian McMillan's charts have taught me to look for buying opportunities in a daily breakout launched from a large weekly horizontal pattern (often retested, but sometimes not). I see this large area of "consolidation at the top" as a garbage pattern, but I believe the spirit of it to be an ascending triangle. It's just a very abused ascending triangle. The breakout was short and the retest has been steep but the blue line has recently turned back upward after some hesitation and price is still above it. To me, finding a local bottom above the 200 would be a signal to buy anything with a pulse that isn't nailed down.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by ericscottlykins
Bitcoin Price Action Update Extra - Wyckoff Accumulation Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Sawcruhteez Strategies: Comprehensive Trading Strategy - Consensio | Comprehensive Trading Process | How to BUY THE DIP | Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Methods The 4h chart looks like Schematic #1 of Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern . We have jumped the creek and created a higher low which is where I get very interested in this pattern. The higher lower after jumping the creek is point #12 in accumulation and that is Wyckoff's favorite entry point. If price breaks through the horizontal resistance lines and throwsback for a retest then that would be the second LPS / point #14 which is his 2nd and final entry point. This indicates to me that the market has had the chance to consolidate properly before the expected market period. www.forexfactory.com Consensio on the same time tends to agree. The 200 EMA has supported multiple attempts and the 50 is squeezing sufficiently. This is where the higher low and the 9 EMA is most important to me. I really want to see price support above the prior higher low ($7,680) and for that to be followed by a bullish cross with the 9 EMA. If that happens then I will feel very confident that we will be ready for the all excited markup period : ) Edit: Apologies if your inbox is getting spammed. Sometimes I make mistakes and have to delete / repost. That is what happened today - had the numbers mislabeled in the chart.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Price Action Extra - Wyckoff Accumulation Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Sawcruhteez Strategies: Comprehensive Trading Strategy - Consensio | Comprehensive Trading Process | How to BUY THE DIP | Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Methods The 4h chart looks like Schematic #1 of Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern . We have jumped the creek and created a higher low which is where I get very interested in this pattern. The higher lower after jumping the creek is point #12 in accumulation and that is Wyckoff's favorite entry point. If price breaks through the horizontal resistance lines and throwsback for a retest then that would be the second LPS / point #14 which is his 2nd and final entry point. This indicates to me that the market has had the chance to consolidate properly before the expected market period. www.forexfactory.com Consensio on the same time tends to agree. The 200 EMA has supported multiple attempts and the 50 is squeezing sufficiently. This is where the higher low and the 9 EMA is most important to me. I really want to see price support above the prior higher low ($7,680) and for that to be followed by a bullish cross with the 9 EMA. If that happens then I will feel very confident that we will be ready for the all excited markup period : )
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
Sawcruhteez Strategies: Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Methods Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process In the previous post I outlined two strategies for How to BUY THE DIP . Both approaches are quite hands on, requiring consistent analysis and actively managing orders. They are primarily meant for individuals who actively buy and sell on an intra month or week basis. This post is for individuals with the hodler mentality, who simply want to implement a structured plan to buy BTC before planning on hodling for multiple years. This person is almost always going to find a dollar cost averaging approach as the best way to achieve his or her goal. If you are convinced that the next bull market is here, and you have money waiting patiently on the sidelines, then the goal is to convert the fiat into BTC as safely as possible. The goal is not necessarily to get the very best price, instead the objective should be to maintain a cost basis that is lower than the spot price. Dollar Cost Averaging into a bull market is a very simple and effective way to make that happen. If it is a bull market then the price will be consistently appreciating and after enough time consistent purchases are expected to result in an average cost basis than is lower than the current spot price. Dollar Cost Averaging is an approach that allows someone to regularly buy the same dollar amount of an asset. There are two ways to Dollar Cost Average, by time or by price. Anyone with a retirement account is Dollar Cost Averaging into the investment by time. Generally a specific dollar amount will be invested on a monthly basis, regardless of the price of the underlying asset. The other way to Dollar Cost Average (DCA) is by price. For example if an individual has X to invest then that person can enter 10% every time that the price appreciates 10%. This is a more aggressive approach and is done to ensure that a certain amount of exposure is achieved at a certain price point. When Dollar Cost Averaging by price it is possible to go months, or years, without making an entry. Conversely it would also be feasible to make multiple entries during the same month if the volatility warrants it. Both approaches are completely valid. The preferred method will be determined by an individuals circumstances and objectives. If one has disposable income on a monthly basis then using some of it to regularly buy BTC can be a very good option (DCA by time). On the other hand if an individual has a lump sum of cash waiting on the sidelines then it may be preferred to scale in as price appreciates (DCA by price). This can be done to ensure that the full lump sum is entered before the price gets to high and / or if a certain amount of the underlying asset is desired. Some businesses will implement this approach if they require a certain amount of a commodity to operate profitably. Those sitting in fiat may choose this route if they want to make sure they get at least X amount of Bitcoin. Dollar Cost Averaging by Time This approach is ideal for individuals whose monthly income exceed his or her expenses. A portion of this disposable income can be earmarked to buy BTC as long as the market is bullish. This post will go in depth about how to determine if the trend is bullish or bearish. However there are many technical tools that can be used to accomplish this goal. My preferred method is Consensio . The Ichimoku Cloud is also very powerful. When utilizing this approach it is very important to have a gameplan for what to do if the price declines for an extended period of time. If the value of the investment declines each month after buying more it can be very difficult to cope with mentally and financially. This is especially true if there is no backup plan for putting the purchases on a moratorium or executing a stop loss and exiting the position all together. Dollar Cost Averaging when the price is declining in a bull market is generally the best time to buy. That is because the same dollar amount buys more of the underlying asset. This improves the cost basis and is a primary advantage to the approach. However if the price continues to decline for months, or even years, then buying more of the underlying asset only increasing exposure to something that is depreciating. This is why it is very important to have a plan, and stick to it. If Dollar Cost Averaging by time then it could make sense to implement a stop loss system that is based on time. For example: if price depreciates for one quarter then stop adding to position for one quarter. If price continues to decrease for two quarters in a row then exit the position entirely. On the other hand if price increases during the second quarter then resume Dollar Cost Averaging in the third quarter. It would also be possible to implement a stop loss system based on price. For example: If price declines 15% then Dollar Cost Averaging is placed on a moratorium. If price declines 30% then stop loss is executed and position is exited. This approach is very tricky with Bitcoin. It will often decline 45% in the middle of a bull market. Therefore if this is the preferred strategy then it is important to backtest the percentages that an asset can decrease while remaining in a bull trend. This needs to be done for every asset individually before starting the purchasing program. Dollar Cost Averaging is usually done by those who intent to buy and hodl the investment long term. Most will do this blindly and that is very dangerous. It is very important to have a plan for profit taking, even if planning to hodl for years, or decades. The profit taking strategy can also be done based on time or price. Retirement accounts have a built in profit taking approach that is based on time. Most IRA’s will not allow one to withdraw until they are 59 ½ without severe penalties. Therefore the gameplan is generally to contribute on a monthly basis and start withdrawing / profit taking after enough time has passed to avoid paying penalties. If someone is Dollar Cost Averaging into Bitcoin, or another speculative investment, then it could be a good idea to implement a time horizon for withdrawing / profit taking. A generic gameplan would be to buy Bitcoin with 1% of monthly income, every month, for the next 5 years. Afterwards the plan could be to hodl for a minimum of 5 more years. 10 years from now it will be time to take profit, if all goes well then it could be possible to withdraw a small percentage (~ 5%) per year indefinitely. The main idea with this approach is to figure out the minimum time frame that you wish to hold onto the investment and at what point would you be able to consistently withdraw for the rest of your life without depleting the account. Another approach would be to take profit 1 year after each halving . Enough to cover the initial investment and then hold the rest for 10+ years. This can be an effective approach, but I believe it is inferior to taking profit based on price. That is because it is often best to sell when the price is high, opposed to waiting for a certain date. This is true for almost every investment class, Bitcoin might be a different story due to the depreciating supply. However taking profit based on price can be very tricky, especially for people with a set strategy that employs consistent buying. That is why I believe that it is crucial to learn how to identify the trend and have an incremental process for stopping the buys and then exiting. This is where Consensio works so well, it is a step by step process for recognizing trends and reversals. Dollar Cost Averaging by Price This approach is for individuals who have a lump sum of money on the sidelines who want to ensure gets entered by a certain price. Let’s use a hypothetical individual who has $25,000 in cash. That person, who we will call Dollar Bill, wants to make sure that they can get at least 2 BTC with that money. However, this person is relatively smart and does not want to get overexposed too early. Instead he intends to enter in pieces and only when the price is appreciating. Bitcoin currently is trading at $7,981 and Bill has decided that he cannot sit on the sidelines any longer. Insteading of FOMO’ing in he takes a step back to reevaluate the landscape and come up with a gameplan. He starts by analyzing the charts. Using prior highs he is able to identify major areas of established resistance and he notices three key price points where he wants to enter. The major areas of horizontal resistance are as follows: $8,219 | $9,619 | $11,491 If those levels are broken then the protagonist wants to make sure that he become known as Bitcoin Bill. He is telling all of his friends to buy right now and has grown tired of his moniker after learning about the perils of fiat money. To realize his dream of owning 2 Bitcoin he has implemented an initiative to scale in slightly above each level of resistance. The target entries are: $8,501, $10,251 and $12,251 This won't get the best possible price but it will ensure that he only adds to the position if the market is moving in his favor. Entries are set slightly higher than the levels of resistance as a way to try to avoid fake breakouts, otherwise known as bull traps. Our hero used to be known as Billy Bull Trap and he is determined to make sure that doesn’t happen again. Now he must calculate how much to enter at each level to ensure that he gets at least the 2 BTC that his heart so desires. Since there are three entry points he decides to separate his $25,000 desired exposure into thirds. The calculation goes as follows: $25,000 / 3 = $8,333 Enter $8,333 at $8,501 (target entry #1) = 0.9802 BTC Enter $8,333 at $10,251 (target entry #2) = 0.8128 BTC Enter $8,333 at $12,251 (target entry #3) = 0.6801 BTC Total = 2.4731 BTC Average Price / Cost Basis: $10,108 per BTC After going through the calculations he immediately enters the orders, using Good-Until-Cancel Stop Market Buy orders. A Stop Market Buy order will not trigger until a certain price is reached. Good-Until-Cancel means that it will remain active unless Bill changes his mind and manually cancels the orders. This type of order allows traders and investors to enter positions as soon as the price reaches his or her desired level. This can be very beneficial for those who do not want to wait at a computer all day and night for the right time to enter. They also work very well in volatile markets that are open 24/7 for people who like to sleep without a price alert alarm. By inputting the orders right now Bill knows that he will be able to buy Bitcoin at the prices he wants regardless of when it happens or where he might be. This is a great option for Bill, who is an avid golfer that spends all of his spare time working on his short game in hopes of earning another new moniker. He despises being called Double Bogey Bill by his golfing friends. It is important to note the difference between a Stop Market Buy order and a Stop Limit Buy order. As the name suggests a Stop Market will trigger a market order to buy as soon as the price is reached. This guarantees a fill, but means that there will often be some slippage. If markets are moving fast and breaking through resistance then there may be a relatively small amount of liquidity available in the order books. If that is the case then it is possible to pay a much higher price than expected. For example: if a stop market order to buy 0.97 BTC is triggered at $8,501 then there needs to be at least 0.97 BTC available to be sold at $8,501 on that individual exchange. If not then slippage will occur and a higher price will be paid. It is entirely feasible that the market order will go all the way up to $8,600+ before filling. This is especially true for large orders and / or exchanges with lower liquidity. Individuals that want to avoid slippage will use Stop Limit Buy orders instead. This will trigger a limit order that will only get filled if someone else market sells at that price. If there are enough market sellers at that price then the full order will get filled. If not there the limit order will be in danger of getting blown right through. When price has a legitimate breakout there is generally an overwhelming amount of buyers and very few sellers. If there are few sellers then it means a buy limit order has a high risk of not getting filled. There are pros and cons to each order type. As is often the case it will come down to an individual to determine what is best. Stop Market orders will always get filled but can often be at a worse price than expected. This risk is greatly minimized for smaller position sizes and / or higher liquidity exchanges / assets. Stop Limit orders will never experience slippage but they will be at risk of getting skipped over. This risk is greatly increased for highly volatile markets. Bill is determined to buy a minimum of 2 BTC for the $25,000 that he has available. Using Stop Limit orders is out of the question for Bill because the risk of getting skipped over is much greater to him than the risk of paying a slightly worse price. Furthermore his calculations show that he can expect to get 2.47 BTC based on his target entries, therefore he feels confident that he will end up with a minimum of 2 BTC even if he experiences significant slippage. With a gameplan in place and orders on the books it is possible to be prepared for upcoming price action before it happens. Being proactive instead of reactive is the primary differentiator between emotional investors and the proverbial smart money. Being able to execute that plan is what separates the pros from the wannabes. Dollar Cost Averaging by price is not designed to buy in at the cheapest price. Instead it is meant to ensure that a certain amount of the underlying asset is acquiring and that you are buying into a market that is appreciating. This approach should absolutely be combined with a profit taking strategy. Many who buy in based on certain price levels will prefer to exit at certain price levels as well. For example Bill might decide to sell 0.5 BTC at $20,000 and 0.5 BTC at $100,000. After recouping more than his initial investment he may choose to let the rest of the position ride indefinitely since he now has a negative cost basis (withdrawn more than was originally invested, while still maintaining some of the original exposure). This is by far my preferred approach, and is very possible in a crypto bull market with the right plan and execution. Daily Dollar Cost Averaging A very effective way to Dollar Cost Average by time is to buy a very small amount every day until the desired amount of exposure is achieved. This can be a good strategy for individuals with a disposable income as well as for those who have a lump sum to invest. Those with a lump sum can enter 0.25% - 0.5% of the capital on a daily basis. This will process would take 200 - 400 days to get fully entered. If that is too long for an individual’s taste then it is possible to enter a higher percentage, however I would not consider doing more than 1% per day. Individuals with disposable income on a monthly basis can enter 3.33% per day. That will enter the full amount before the month is over. Then the following months surplus is used to continue buying the same amount per day. Exchanges like Coinbase and Gemini have an option to set a recurring purchase for x amount. This can be a great option for individuals who do not want to Dollar Cost Average by time, however this could obfuscate valuable lessons. Manually doing a Daily Dollar Cost Average can be a tremendous learning experience, especially for those who are uninitiated to active buying and selling. If you decide to use this approach then pay very close attention to the emotions that you are feeling when making the purchase. Are you motivated to buy when price is down 10% over the last 24 hours? Do you feel like buying more than the predetermined amount when the price is up 5 - 10%+ over the last 24 hours? I would strongly suggest keeping a journal that details emotions when implementing the Daily Dollar Cost Average approach. This will enlighten you to when the market is controlling your emotions and when you are prone to making poor decisions. Combining Dollar Cost Averaging with Buying the Dip In the first post I outlined multiple strategies for How to BUY THE DIP . In this post we covered multiple Dollar Cost Averaging methods. It is important to note that these two approaches are not mutually exclusive. In fact they can complement each other quite nicely. I love buying dips in Bitcoin bull markets. If done properly it be extremely rewarding. However it is highly risky and can be very costly if not done effectively. The risks include: 1) Buying a dip that is only the tip of a major selloff 2) Buying a dip and getting whipsawed out of the position right before the market explodes to the upside 3) Waiting for a dip that never comes and letting price get away to the upside As is generally the case when presented with multiple desirable options I prefer to use a combination of Dollar Cost Averaging and Buying the Dip . I find this to be very beneficial to my pocketbook as well as my psyche. Being stuck on the sidelines waiting for a dip can cause a lot of anxiety. That stress can be greatly alleviated by knowing that there is a Dollar Cost Averaging approach in place. Buying small amounts as the price appears to be running away also helps to be patient about waiting for a dip. I like to set a portion of my fiat aside to buy dips and I will use the remainder to start Dollar Cost Averaging. I prefer a ratio somewhere along the lines of 60% for buying dips and 40% is used for Dollar Cost Averaging. I may go as high as 70% / 30% with that ratio depending on market conditions. For individuals who have less experience, or those who do not have the time available to analyze charts on a daily basis, I would suggest a much different ratio. Something along the lines of 10% - 25% for buying dips and the rest set aside to Dollar Cost Average. I think it is always good to have something available to buy when the price dips. The best buying opportunities often occur when Bitcoin drops 30% - 40% while remaining in a bull trend. Having at least 10% of your desired exposure set aside for times like this can be very beneficial. Therefore even if I was committed to a Dollar Cost Averaging approach I would still want some set aside to buy when Bitcoin is oversold in a bull market. While this approach will never get you fully entered in at the bottom, it will be a reliable way to gain exposure into markets that are moving in your favor. My goal is to minimize risk and maximize strike rate. Utilizing an approach that combines buying dips with Dollar Cost Averaging is the best way that I have found to do that. The last puzzle pieces are learning how to identify the trend and manage stop losses. I use the 50 and 200 Day EMA’s to determine the trend. If the 200 EMA is moving up, with the price above and a golden crossover with the 50, then it is a bull market. When Bitcoin is in a bull market then I want to establish a significant amount of exposure while staying flexible and properly attending to my risk. I also use the 50 and 200 Day EMA’s to determine my stop loss. As long as price is above and the trend is up then I want to be in. As soon as the price falls below and the direction of the EMA starts rolling over then I want to start scaling out. If a death cross occurs then I want to be fully out of the position. Another effective way to manage stop losses is with the Bill Williams Fractals on the daily and weekly charts. Through learning how to identify the trend and properly manage risk it is possible to consistently beat the markets average rate of return of a statistically significant sample size.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Sawcruhteez
7
Sawcruhteez Strategies: How to BUY THE DIP Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process Throughout the past six months I have been calling for a return to $1,000. I was convinced that $3,200 was not the bottom for a number of reasons and now it appears that I was sorely mistaken. There are two types of mistakes when it comes to trading, ones that cost money and ones that cost opportunity. By not buying in during the first quarter of 2019 I missed out on some huge opportunity, but I didn’t cost myself any capital. When close to the top or the bottom of a major market cycle it is very important be okay with missing out on opportunity. Many who bought sub $4,000 also bought when the price consolidated $6,000 and took a stop loss when it broke down. Many did the same at $7,500, $10,000 and $12,500. After accounting for the losses, buying the bottom is often far less lucrative than it may seem. I was selling those prices and now I have the desirable opportunity of buying back in cheaper, eventhough it is far from the lowest prices of the quarter. I believe that there is a 75% chance that the bottom is in. That percentage will increase to 100% if we can put in a solid higher low above $6,200 and then a higher high above $8,200. Those chances are more than enough for me to start scaling in. If we do get a higher low / higher high then want to be fully entered. Everyone tells you to “buy the dip” but most do not go on to explain how. I will be using a combination of Dollar Cost Averaging and dip buying in order to increase my exposure to Bitcoin. My full strategy along with multiple additional options are outlined in this two part post. The topics covered will be: Buying the Dip with Moving Averages, Buying the Dip with Trendlines and Fractals, Dollar Cost Average by Time, Dollar Cost Average by Price, Daily Dollar Cost Average, Psychology and Risk Management. The first part will cover tactics for Buying the Dip The second part will cover Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Both parts will touch on Risk Management and Psychology Buying The Dip With Moving Averages My preferred approach is using Exponential Moving Averages to scale into a dip when the asset is in a confirmed bull market. I also use EMA’s to determine the trend. If the 50 W EMA is moving up, with the price above, then it is a confirmed bull trend. After determining that the trend is bullish I have decided to increase exposure. Now I will use the 50 and 200 EMA’s and zoom into the 1D and 4h charts in order to time my entries. Using those areas of support I will set Good-Until-Cancel Limit Orders. In general I will do something along the lines of: 4h 50 EMA: 10% 4h 200 EMA: 20% 1D 50 EMA: 30% 1D 200 EMA: 40% 4h EMA DCA 1d EMA’s As price decreases I increase the exposure and improve the cost basis. Ideally the price will spend very little time below the 50 Day EMA. Instead I would want to see a sharp bounce from the 200 EMA and a close back above the 50 EMA. If the price spends much time below the 50 Day EMA then it will roll over and there would be a large risk of a death cross. When buying the dip using EMA’s I do not like having a set stop loss on the books, in the event of a spike low that would wipe me out right before the bounce. Instead I will use the death cross as my stop loss, as well as a potential area to flip my position and go short. This is why it is important for the price to rebound sharply after testing the daily EMA’s for support. This is less likely when the EMA’s have only recently crossed and have not established a proven trend. Recently crossed EMA’s are the first sign of a reversal, they are too immature to be considered an established trend. Therefore I will be quick to exit my position if the price struggles to stay above the 50 and 200 Day EMA’s, which currently waits in the $5,000 neighborhood. Do not assume that the Moving Averages that I use are the best. Different durations should be used for different assets and different time frames. In general higher volatility calls for shorter term MA’s or EMA’s and shorter time frames do as well. I prefer Exponential Moving Averages because I have found that they are better at identifying areas of support and resistance and they also tend to provide less false signals than Simple Moving Averages. To learn more about using Moving Averages to signal entries / exits and identify areas of support and resistance refer to: Deep Dive Into Consensio with Tyler Jenks Confirm Entries with Horizontals and TL’s As always it is important to confirm entries with other indicators. My favorite indicators for buying dips are Exponential Moving Averages, Horizontal Support, and Trend Support. When those are all in confluence then it represents a low risk, high probability opportunity to buy the dip. It is quite common that those areas of support line up with one another. If the price is in a confirmed bull trend then the EMA will be trending up with the price above. There will often be a trendline that is established from the higher lows that is near to the EMA. There are currently a number of trendlines that can be drawn on BTC and we notice that the 200 EMA on the 4h chart is slithering right in between two of them. The 200 Day EMA is doing something very similar with the two lower trendlines. This is exactly what I like to see. It shows that we are in a strong trend and that there will be a ton of support waiting on a pullback. What is even more important than trendlines is areas of horizontal support. These can be drawn using prior areas of horizontal resistance. I strongly prefer using the weekly chart when drawing horizontals because the important price points usually become much more clear. As we can see the buy areas identified by the 50 and 200 EMA’s on the 4h chart and Daily line up exactly with areas of prior support and resistance. This is very important confirmation for me when I plan on Buying the Dip Using Moving Averages . If the entries are not in line with horizontals then I will make adjustments to my orders or pass on the entry entirely. Seeing a confluence of demand is very important to me and I will always use Trendlines and Horizontals to confirm entries signaled by the Moving Averages. Let’s consider the entry price if price pulls back to $5,000 and all of the orders get filled. Assuming that I have $10,000 that I want to enter on this dip: 30% at $5,800 40% at $5,100 20% at $6,200 10% at $7,250 Average price = $5,681 The gameplan would be to exit if the 50 and 200 Day EMA’s do not support the price and instead get a death cross. That would need to happen with the price below $5,000 and I would expect to exit in the $4,800 neighborhood. That provides a 15.5% risk. This would be done with the assumption that we are entering the next bull market and the upside provides a risk:reward ratio that is good as it will ever get. However, keep in mind that the numbers outlined above will change every day. The EMA’s are moving up every day that the price moves up. Therefore the entries prices are slowly getting worse and the risk is slowly increasing. Furthermore the $4,800 exit is only a projection and with the volatility in BTC anything can happen before the EMA’s recross. Therefore it is extremely important to fully understand the risks of employing this approach. This is an important concept to be aware of. Many people will target a specific price when looking to buy a dip. In reality the price that one should be willing to pay on a dip should increase as the price continues trending up. Buying the Dip Using Trendlines And Bill Williams Fractals Many people are not comfortable with the approach outlined above. I was recently on Tone Vays podcast and he objected to the idea of leaving a Good-Until-Cancel Limit Order on the books to buy a dip. His perspective is perfectly valid and goes to show how there are different strokes for different folks. The approach outlined below is for individuals who prefer to wait for more confirmation of a reversal, following a dip in price, opposed to leaving open orders on the books. This approach is also preferable for individuals who like using set stop losses which provides a more defined risk parameter. A very simple and effective way to identify bull markets is with a bull trendline. As long as price is making higher lows then there should be a best fit trendline that can be drawn to identify areas of support. When price creates a higher high and then pulls back towards a trendline it can represent a great opportunity to establish / increase long exposure. This is usually a lot easier said than done, as is often the case with trading. One of the best ways I have found to time entries when the price is at / near a trendline is with Bill Williams Fractals . Fractals below the price are referred to as down fractals and it is a five candlestick pattern which occurs with the lowest low in the middle and two higher lows on either side. A more aggressive approach only uses three candles, with the low in the middle and two higher lows that surround it. This is another tool that is very simple and can be very effective when combined with trendlines. It provides confirmation that the trendline held as support and that the price is ready to go higher. It also provides a great area for a stop loss, especially on higher time frames. If a down fractal gets violated, even for a moment, then it provides strong confirmation that the trend(line) is broken and therefore a stop loss is warranted. In crypto there are many stop runs and traps. Even those generally fail to violate fractals on the higher time frames, and that is why I think they are a great way to set and trail stop losses. When getting a fractal near a trendline I will look to enter on the second candle following the low, if it trades above the previous candle at any point. This can be done with a Stop Buy Order that is placed right above the high of the first candle that follows the low. This could also be executed with a manual market order as soon as the entry is confirmed. Either way a stop loss should be immediately entered right below the newly printed down fractal. That stop loss stays in place until it is triggered or a new down fractal is established. The stop loss should be trailed just below the new fractal, as soon as it prints on the chart. This is done as a way to keep you in trades that are moving in the desired direction and to immediately exit at the first significant sign of a reversal. If a down fractal is taken out then that generally will represent an established lower low. If that happens on the daily chart then it can often be a good time to exit long exposure and wait to see what happens on the correction. That is especially true on the weekly chart. These entries can also be confirmed with the TD Sequential. If you get a down fractal following a trendline test then a slightly more conservative approach would be to wait for a green 2 trading above a green 1 before entering. This provides further confirmation that the swing low is in and that the price is ready to continue the previous bull trend. This will usually get a worse price than entering on the final candle of the Bill Williams Fractal, however it will often provide a higher probability entry. It is up to individuals to decide for themselves if they prefer going for the best price, or the highest strike rate. When looking at two very viable options I always prefer to go with some sort of combination. If looking to enter X then I believe the optimal strategy is to use the fractal to enter 1/2X and the TD Sequential to enter the other 1/2X. This means I will only be fully entered when the price is moving in my favor and will also limit my exposure / risk when price moves against the first entry. Those are my two preferred methods for Buying the Dip . I find them to be very effective and most important they are approaches that I can trust in the heat of the moment. It will take time and experience to gain trust for any trading technique, that is why I always strongly encourage people to start small, but think big. Eventhough I have learned to trust my dip buying tactics, I still do not employ that approach exclusively. For a number of reasons, primarily psychological, I prefer to compliment my dip buying with consistent Dollar Cost Averaging. This helps to alleviate anxiety when the market is running away from me and is a great way to remain patient while waiting for a dip that seems like it may never come. Furthermore it is a good way to hedge myself and ensure that I am increasing exposure if the dip I am expecting never does come, or if it doesn't come down as far as I'm expecting. Those topics will be covered in depth in the next post titled - Sawcruhteez Strategies: Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
6
Bitcoin 'Daily' Update - Day 338Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge *Using Weekly Chart* Consensio: S EMA tried to make bullish cross with M EMA and looks like it is getting rejected which is very bearish. Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | Bear Channel | A&E or Bear Flag? Horizontals: Trendline: Parabolic SAR: $4,123 Futures Curve: Backwardation Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0032% BTCUSDSHORTS: Took out horizontal support and appears to be turning it into resistance TD’ Sequential: Green 5 Ichimoku Cloud: Tried to break through Tenkan-Sen but appears to be getting rejected Relative Strength Index: Has climbed from 29 to 40 without the price going anywhere. I view that as bearish Price Action: 24h: -2.3% | 2w: -4.5% | 30d: +6.5% Bollinger Bands: MA at $4,186 Stochastic Oscillator: Rallying while price is flat Summary: In the last daily update I said that: “I can’t remember the last time I felt this bullish about crypto” In 4 days I have gone from very bullish to neutral / slightly bearish. When the market flashes a bunch of bullish signals in confluence and then fails to go anywhere I take that as a very bearish sign. We got a monthly Stochastic buy signal in confluence with a weekly buy signal. That is such a rare occurrence that it should be providing a lot of demand. The 4 & 9 week EMA’s were threatening to make a bullish cross for the first time in 7 months and likewise it should have created a significant amount of demand. The futures market was in backwardation while the price was greater than the 2 week high, this is hands down one of my top two most bullish indicators. An Adam & Eve appeared to be forming on the 1D and was very clear on the 3D. The monthly TD Sequential was on a red 8. The 50 day EMA was rolling up and acting as support. The daily Ichimoku Cloud was fully bullish and acting as support. Literally all of my favorite indicators were pointing in one direction which should mean there were a ton of traders seeing the same thing and entering orders to buy. When the supply overwhelms that much buying pressure then it is something to pay very close attention to. Big moves often come after supply completely overwhelms all of the technical demand. It is a very strong indication that bears are overwhelming the bulls with ease. This is starting to feel very much like late September 2018. I am going to be staying away from entering new positions until this range breaks. At a minimum that means the blue pennant that has been drawn and even then I may want to wait until $3,200 or $4,200 falls. On the bright side this will give me some much needed time to buckle down and focus on writing the book on Hyperwaves which I am co authoring with Leah Wald and Tyler Jenks. On the other hand I will have little motivation to make new updates until this range is broken. If you don’t hear from me for a while then that is why. I might have to change the name to Bitcoin Update and remove the daily aspect. Cheers!
BNC:BLX
by Sawcruhteez
8
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 56 (0.466 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge It looks like we are finally getting some volatility and this is very exciting. In order for me to succeed with this challenge I need a big trend that I am able to enter into early in the game. The chop that has occurred over the last two months has been very difficult to trade. If USDTRY can resume it’s bullish trend then it is game on. I am ready to bet big on this one, but as always will be starting small. The 4h chart recently had a red 9 at support and that was a good opportunity for me to start building a position. Next I am watching for a golden cross with the 50 and 200 EMA’s. After that I will be watching for the same golden cross but on the Daily. If that goes as expected then I will be building a long position of ~10 BTC. If all goes according to plan and then my most conservative target gets hit I will be back in the green for this challenge. The chances of that happening are realistic but not necessarily to be expected. As long as I continue to diligently manage risk and wait for ideal entries then I am confident I can get this challenge going in the right direction in the allotted time frame. The crypto markets are also very interested for the first time in months. It is right on the verge of making a big move as far as I can tell. To learn more about what I am watching for see the Watchtower below as well as the 335th day of the Bitcoin Daily Update . Open Positions Exposure: 0.14 lots (3.66 BTC) Long USDTRY Enter: $5.3107 Stop: $5.236 Risk: 1.39% Watchtower USDTRY Notes: Price getting squeeze in between 50 & 200 EMA’s on 4h and D. Gameplan: Add if 4h GC. Add on D GC if not too far away from price. Close > $5.56 is another signal to add Target: $6.55 (ATH Retest) & $8.00 (Big W Target) ETHBTC Patterns: Descending triangle. Notes: Getting squeezed between 50 & 200 D EMA’s with beautiful cupping pattern Target: 0.07 if break triangle to upside Gameplan: Waiting to see how market reacts to Hard Fork. The technicals are very bullish, but Hard Forks are generally a sell. This might be different since there is no alt token being created. ETHUSD Notes: First bullish crossover with 4 & 9 week EMA’s since April 23, 18. Only the 2nd since Feb 2017. Gameplan: Same as above LTCBTC Notes: Weekly golden cross with price above 200 W EMA. Gameplan: If BTC can close a daily above $3,922 then I will be looking for longs. Will enter on LTC if ETH hard fork hasn’t happened yet.
Long
by Sawcruhteez
4
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 326)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: (Using 4, 9 and 50 EMA’s) M MA < S MA < P < L MA Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel Horizontals: R: $3,679 | Testing $3,525 for support Trendline: Bear channel Parabolic SAR: $3,359 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 0.8% spread. Pay close attention to the 2 week high. If we break down that (currently $3,766) and re enter Contango then it is a strong sell signal. BTCUSDSHORTS: Pretty neutral, not much to glean at these levels. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% TD’ Sequential: Bearish price flip Ichimoku Cloud: Thin could above 50 EMA represents little resistance if we can breakthrough the EMA. Relative Strength Index: Above 50, pulling back for retest Average Directional Index: Rolled over and back below 25, indicating no / weak trend Price Action: 24h: -0.4% | 2w: +5.5% | 1m: +0.6% Bollinger Bands: Pulling back from top band. MA = $3,494 Stochastic Oscillator: Daily sell signal Summary: Have been watching the charts very closely, expecting some volatility to be right around the corner. I have been experimenting with EMA’s instead of MA’s and I am really starting to like the change. I have also adjusted the inputs to 4/9/50. Looking at the 50 day EMA right now and you can see why I like it. That is my key area of resistance. If we can close a daily candle above then I expect a lot of buying volume to follow. The ichimoku cloud shows little built up resistance above that area which confirms my suspicion. That being said it will not be easy to close above the 50 EMA. It is trending down and has been acting as strong resistance. If we stay below it for another 24 - 48 hours then I am expecting us to take out the two week low and re enter Contango. If that happens I will be going short. The lower TF’s just took out $3,575 support and that should result in two scenarios, both of which come with volatility: It’s either a shakeout before the breakout, or it was the top of this rally. Still slightly too early to tell, but I expect it to be much more clear by this time tomorrow. I am still long, however I have started to scale out and I would not be looking to re enter until we close above the 50 EMA.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 324)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P > L MA > S MA > M MA with L MA flattened out Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel | 1h bull flag Horizontals: S: $3,589 | R: $3,625 Trendline: Bear channel (see yesterday’s post) Parabolic SAR: $3,336 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 0.82% spread. Appears to be re entering Contango after taking out the 2 week high. BTCUSDSHORTS: Continuing to pull back from the shooting star. Funding Rates: Longs pays shorts 0.01% TD’ Sequential: G2 = G1 Ichimoku Cloud: Thin cloud shows little resistance above if we can take out yesterday’s high Relative Strength Index: Back above 50 Average Directional Index: Bull trend Price Action: 24h: +0.2% | 2w: +2.&% | 30d: -8.1% Bollinger Bands: Showing the first signs of a bull trend (turning MA and top band up) Stochastic Oscillator: D, 3D and Weekly Cross. Is very / powerful for those to occur at roughly the same time. Summary: I like to start with a very long term view and then zoom in when the markets start moving. Have been keeping my eye on the 1h chart over the last 24 hours and I like what I am seeing. Volume declining during consolidation while forming a 1h bull flag. Entering a stop order at $3,640 makes a lot of sense and provides very good risk reward. Could also set a order at $3,716 which would be a daily green 2 above a green 1.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
6
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 318)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < L MA = fully bearish Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel | Symmetrical triangle Horizontals: S: $3,415 | R: $3,477 Trendline: Symm triangle Parabolic SAR: $3,323 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 2.1% spread. Was under 2% earlier today. BTCUSDSHORTS: Higher low still valid Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0066% TD’ Sequential: Price flipping Ichimoku Cloud: That Tenkan-Sen is blowing me away. Pretty much perfect resistance for 15 straight daily candles. Relative Strength Index: At trend resistance Average Directional Index: Price Action: Watching for it to cross 25 to confirm bear trend. Bollinger Bands: MA at $3,517. Price consolidating below MA while BB’s squeeze is bearish. Stochastic Oscillator: Daily buy signal. 3D and Weekly posturing. Summary: Price is retesting a bullish 200 week MA. I am still expected a bounce to $5,200 - $5,800 before breaking down $3,200 support. Yesterday was a green 2 above a green 1 and I was expecting that to continue with a green 3 above a green 2. Instead we retraced and close below yesterday’s low. While that was happening the spread in the backwardation was narrowing and that had me paying very close attention. Seeing that start to expand again along with the daily candle closing inside the symmetrical triangle made me feel more comfortable about my long exposure. The market remains in a very crucial spot. Large cap alts - ETH, LTC and XRP - are at major support and could be due to a face melting bounce. If BTC holds support and gets a bounce then I am expected 2X - 3X moves out of the alts. LTC interests me most right now. It is testing critical resistance of 0.01. A close above would give me targets of 0.02 and 0.028. The 50 & 200 day MA’s are making golden cross while the LTCBTCSHORTS are at trend resistance after creating new ATH.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 317) Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: S MA < P < M MA < L MA Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear channel | Symmetrical triangle with $1,000 measured move Horizontals: S: $3,386 | R: $3,500 Trendline: Symm triangle Parabolic SAR: Broken SAR Futures Curve: Backwardation with 1.97% spread. Arbitragers have been chipping away at this spread selling spot and buying futures. BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back, will be interesting to watch Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0002% TD’ Sequential: G2 closed > G1 Ichimoku Cloud: Absolutely amazing how well the Tenkan-Sen has been acting as resistance. I am a firm believer that traditional settings are best in all markets. Relative Strength Index: Testing trend resistance Average Directional Index: If crosses 25 then that would confirm bear trend Price Action: 24h: +0.8% | 2w: -5% | 1m: -7.6% Bollinger Bands: Squeeze with price below MA Stochastic Oscillator: D buy signal. 3D posturing for buy Summary: You could make a very strong bullish and bearish case right now. That is usually a good time to stay out of the market. Conversely it can also be when some of the best signals happen to occur, when there is equilibrium a big move is likely to follow. Bearish Case Outside of the short term MA Consensio is fully bearish and the long term MA is acting as clean resistance in confluence with the Tenken-Sen & Bollinger Band MA. For me symmetrical triangles also carry a bearish bias when the overall trend is bearish. The backwardation is a bullish indicator but I view the narrowing spread as bearish. Flipping back to Contango would make me seriously reconsider position. BTCUSDSHORTS appear to have created a higher low. Even though they are pulling back right now I still view that chart as a bearish indicator (primed for shorts to pile on). Bullish Case I have been expected a bounce to $5,200+ since November. The gap in the visible range volume profile needs to be filled and I expect that to happen now before the final capitulation. The daily Stochastic just got a buy signal. The 3D and Weekly are not far behind. I love seeing all three in confluence. We just had 32 consecutive Bearish SAR’s on the Daily chart and they just turned bullish. I have recently started backtesting how many consecutive SAR’s can happen before a correction and > 30 is definitely on the higher end. The TD Sequential just closed a green 2 > a green 1 following the 32 consecutive bearish SAR’s is particularly interesting. It triggered a long entry this afternoon, but only a very small one due to Consensio. I didn’t another Bubble Comparison this afternoon and that provided very good confirmation of my short term bullish bias. Analyzing the 200 MA and the 200 EMA on BTC has illustrated some very interesting results. 200 MA crossing 200 EMA with price below happened at the bottom in 2014. 200 EMA crossing 200 MA with price above called the beginning of the following bull market. Bitcoin
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
4
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 316)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: S MA < P < M MA < L MA Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave / bear channel Horizontals: S: $3,375 | R: $3,476 Trendline: Bear Channel Parabolic SAR: $3,452 | I pay very close attention to the SAR when it is this close to the price, indicates big move upcoming. Futures Curve: Backwardation with 2.18% spread BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to look like A&E bottom but that would be very hard to believe. Take a look at the LTCUSDSHORTS! Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% TD’ Sequential: G2 = G1 Ichimoku Cloud:Tenkan continues to act as resistance Relative Strength Index: Lower lows and lower highs Average Directional Index: Crossing 20 Price Action: +1.3% | 2w: -3.8% | 1m: -10.6% Bollinger Bands: BB MA is acting as clean resistance Stochastic Oscillator: Daily buy signal. 3D entering oversold. Summary: When the parabolic SAR’s get this close to the price I pay very close attention. It is a strong indicator to me that a trend is exhausting and / or that consolidation is coming to completion. I have entered a stop order to buy if we break through yesterday’s high. That would break the daily SAR and provide a very nice risk:reward. If the SAR holds as resistance and the futures market reenters contango then I will be looking for a short. After looking at some long term charts on alt coins I am thinking that there is a good chance we see a big bounce over the next 1 - 3 months. I am seeing horizontal support holding and some very bullish setups. LTC and XRP are the two that have me most interested now, and ETH shouldn’t be far behind if the former two end up leading a bounce.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 314)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < L MA = fully bearish (current candle is testing S MA) Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear channel Horizontals: $3,478 provided the preliminary support on November 25 and the last few days have been threatening to turn it into resistance Trendline: Channel Parabolic SAR: Differs significantly based on exchange. Bistamp at $3,500 is most important to me. Futures Curve: Backwardation with 2.5% spread BTCUSDSHORTS: Pumping right through a G9 Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0351% TD’ Sequential: R6 Ichimoku Cloud: Look at how well the Tenkan-Sen is acting as resistance. Beautiful! Relative Strength Index: Testing trend resistance Average Directional Index: Crossed 20 indicating bear trend. Watch for confirmation with a cross above 25. Price Action: 24h: +2.1% | 2w: -3.4% | 1m: -5.9% Bollinger Bands: Resuming squeeze which indicates to me that the selloff on the 19th was a trap Stochastic Oscillator: Daily buy signal. 3D still pulling back. Weekly posturing for buy. Summary: The market is at a rather crucial spot and longs are starting to look very appealing. If we can close back above $3,500 then that would signal for me to start scaling in. On the other hand a close below the MA of my channel (~$3,325) would be very bearish. The Bitcoin Market Cap dominance is very interesting to me right now as well. Since the summer of 2017 BTC has found strong resistance at 60% dominance and currently appears to be forming a descending triangle. A breakdown from here would be likely to retest 40%. On the other hand if we could manage to return back above 60% then a return to 80% would be very likely. This is all right in line with the two options I am expecting from here. My most likely outcome is one last dead cat bounce from here to fill the gap in the VRVP in the $5,200 - $5,800 area. If that happens market cap dominance will likely fall back to 40% while alts pump even harder. Then the rug gets pulled out from under and the market flies back to safety during capitulation. My slightly less likely outcome is breaking down $3,000 from here and capitulating over the following weeks - months. I remain resolute that would be the quickest way to find a bottom. Flight to safety occurs during capitulation pushing BTC market dominance back to 80%+ and sending alts down the toilet where they belong. Still too early to make a confident call either way. Time to remain on the sidelines and wait for more information.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 313)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < L MA = fully bearish Patterns: Phase 7 of hyperwave | Bear channel Horizontals: Kind of in no mans land after closing below $3,500. Next area of support is $3,200 Trendline: Bear Channel Parabolic SAR: $3,527 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 2.72% spread | Tightening spread as we near support is bearish and I will be watching for that to flip back to Contango. BTCUSDSHORTS: Higher lows and higher highs. Making another higher high while capitulating makes a lot of sense. Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0008% TD’ Sequential: R5 Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan-Sen continues to act as strong resistance Relative Strength Index: Lower lows and lower highs Average Directional Index: ADX crossing 20 with -DI > +DI indicating the potential start of a new bear trend. Price Action: 24h: -2.9% | 2w: -6.1% | 1m: -9.4% Bollinger Bands: Close below bottom band and now the BB’s are no longer squeezing. Stochastic Oscillator: Watching for D, 3D and Weekly buy signal. Summary: I am finding the XAU:BTC ratio very interesting right now. Throughout the first 11 months of the 2018 bear market BTC barely lost value against gold and the ratio remained below 0.2 during that time. However there was a sudden and drastic change that occured in November. Gold found a bottom and Bitcoin continued to sell off. The ratio currently sits at 0.387 and it is threatening to retest 0.5. This is alarming and has me wondering about the possible fundamentals behind the shift. Regardless the technicals indicate that Gold is on the verge of another massive bull run while BTC still appears to have a way to go before finding a bottom. Will be very interesting to see how this develops. From here I am expecting a retest of $3,200 and I think there is > 50% chance that it holds as support and provides a strong bounce to $5,200 - $5,800. If that happens it would form a Bulkowski Big W on the weekly chart. However if the market re enters Contango while retesting $3,200 then I will become bearish and will look for possible short entries.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 312)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < L MA = fully bearish Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Parallel Channel Horizontals: $3,480 - $3,500 was support, watch for it to become resistance Trendline: Parallel Channel Parabolic SAR: $3,566 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 3.15% spread BTCUSDSHORTS: Formed higher low. Now it is testing the 34 MA Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% TD’ Sequential: Daily R4 | 3d R7 | 1w: R3 Ichimoku Cloud: Kumo has twisted back to bearish and price has closed the last 9 daily candles below the Tenka-Sen. Watch for C-Clamp. Relative Strength Index: Lower highs and lower lows Average Directional Index: Threatening to cross 20 in the next day or two. Price Action: 24h: -2.9% | 2w: -6.1% | 1m: -9.4% Bollinger Bands: Squeezing with price below MA. MA at $3,567 and acting as strong resistance. Stochastic Oscillator: Weekly oversold while 3D and D approach oversold territory. When all three line up it can be a very powerful signal. Summary: It appears that we have been eating away at $3,500 support over last two weeks and today was the first daily close below that level since the middle of December. Almost all of the metrics that I care about are fully bearish: Parallel channel, Consensio, Ichimoku Cloud, TD Sequential, Bollinger Band, along with close below horizontal support. Normally that would be more than enough for me to enter a large short. However, I view this as a no short zone until the futures curve re enters Contango. As long as the backwardation remains I will have a preference for longs. A big move is coming and the risk:reward appears favorable for either direction - which is often the case when the market ranges for this long. I am very interested in the Stochastic Oscillator on the D, 3D and Weekly charts. If those line up and all get a buy signal around the same time then I will be looking to open a large long. The two most likely outcomes that I am seeing from here are: A) retest $3,000 - $3,175 for support and get a strong bounce to $5,200 - $5,800. B) Range from $3,400 - $3,550 for 2 - 3 weeks and retest top of bear channel. If the less likely third option happens where we break down $3,000 and potentially capitulate then I have high hopes that I will be able to enter a short as soon as the futures market re enters Contango (believe that if it’s a bear trap there will be Backwardation, if it is a real breakdown there will be Contango).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
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