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Consensio

Bitcoin Daily Update (day 309)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < S MA = M MA < Bullish L MA Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear channel Horizontals: S: $3,580 | R: $3,673 Trendline: Bear Channel Parabolic SAR: $3,862 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 3.95% spread BTCUSDSHORTS: Appears to be finding support at 21,300 Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0321% TD’ Sequential: Price flip Ichimoku Cloud: Bearish kumo twist Average Directional Index: Still threatening to cross 20. Price Action: 24h: -0,1% | 2w: -5.4% | 1m: -2.1% Bollinger Bands: MA at $3,750 which is in confluence with the bottom of the cloud Stochastic Oscillator: Still creating higher highs and higher lows Summary: Over the past four days the price has not moved a percent. Even though that is the case we still got some significant changes. Consensio is almost fully bearish. The only thing left would be for the L MA to flatten / roll down. If we continue to consolidate below it for much longer then that is exactly what will happen. The Ichimoku Cloud recently had a bearish kumo twist and the Tenkan-Sen is diverging from the Kiju-Sen in a bearish manner. It is fully bearish. The Stochastic has managed to stay bullish throughout all of that which is interesting. Yet again the only important indicator that is telling me to be bullish is backwardation and it is important enough for me to expect continued consolidation / a dead cat bounce as long as that is the case. The spread is wide which makes me things we are still a ways from reentering Contango.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 308)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: M MA < S MA < P < bullish L MA Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Parallel channel inside Bear channel Horizontals: S: $3,532 | R: $3,658 & $3,984 Trendline: Bear channel Parabolic SAR: $3,887 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 4.13% spread. Getting more and more bullish by the hour BTCUSDSHORTS: Bull div in the RSI indicates that I was wrong about pulling back to 20,000 support and that short sellers could increase from right here. Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0413% TD’ Sequential: Price flip Ichimoku Cloud: Still acting as resistance w recent bullish kumo twist Average Directional Index: Getting very close to crossing 20 Price Action: 24h: - | 2w: -4.7% | 1m: -1.5% Bollinger Bands: MA = $3,758 Stochastic Oscillator: Didn’t make a bearish recross yesterday like it was so close to doing, now diverging in bullish manner. Summary: Not much has changed since yesterday except for one key difference which is an increase in the backwardation spread to over 4%. As that the continues to increase the more bullish I become. However remember that backwardation is not a timing mechanism it is simply a way to determine a bullish bias. Since that is the only thing that has changed in my opinion, I would like to talk about is how much I am loving the Ichimoku Cloud with traditional settings. Using the ‘crypto settings’ I almost gave up on it entirely due to it lagging all of my other most important indicators. Over the past month or two I have been following it with traditional settings and now it is absolutely one of my favorite indicators. As a matter of fact it is even rivaling Consensio, and that is something I am still trying to wrap my head around. The last month it has worked wonders on BTC and LTC (as well as others I am sure). LTC broke through a bear trend, confirmed a cup and handle, got a golden cross and rolled the L MA up. Everything was screaming at me to go long, except for the cloud. I decided to wait for a daily close above the cloud to enter. That never happened and it saved me. Similar situation happened with BTC: Consensio went fully bullish but the Cloud disagreed and was right. Furthermore they are very similar and I am starting to think that the rules of Consensio can be applied to the cloud. In bull markets the Tenkan-Sen acts as the S MA, the Kijun-Sen acts as the M MA and the cloud acts as the L MA. In bear markets it is the same but switch the Tenkan and Kijun. The important thing is to always be thinking and analyzing for yourself. If something doesn’t seem to be working, or if another option seems to be working better then don’t be afraid to explore it. “Don’t fix what isn’t broken” is terrible advice and only leads to complacency. Do not let that be you! Heck we would still be in the stone ages if that were good advice. Instead I encourage you to think for yourself and always strive to evolve.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 307)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: S MA < P < M MA < bullish L MA - M MA attempting bearish cross today Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Seeing a parallel channel forming inside the bear channel Horizontals: S: $3,542 | R: $3,675 Trendline: Bear channel Parabolic SAR: $3,923 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 3.99% spread. Increasing spread is very bullish. BTCUSDSHORTS: Took out local low. I view this as bullish in that I expect shorts to continue to pull back to the 20,000 area which would indicate less selling pressure over next week or two. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.008% TD’ Sequential: Bullish price flip Ichimoku Cloud: Cloud continues to hold as strong resistance. Relative Strength Index: New local low while price stays flat Price Action: 24h: +0.9% | 2w: -6.9% | 30d: +2.8% Bollinger Bands: MA = $3,764 Stochastic Oscillator: Making bearish re cross < 20. Very bearish sign. Summary: The overall picture for Bitcoin is starting to turn more bullish as far as I am concerned. At the same time things are starting to turn more bearish for alts. That has me scratching my head and very interested to see what happens. ETH:USD is getting a death cross with the 9 and 33 MA’s while also forming a h&s looking pattern on the daily. The only reason I did not short at today’s close is because of an expectation for it to pump along with BTC (if that does happen). XRP:BTC appears to be breaking down the symmetrical triangle as well as rolling down the 33 MA. The only reason I feel comfortable holding onto that long is because my view of BTC. However I strongly believe that we will see alts decouple from BTC before this bear market is over. That can only happen in one of two ways: BTC pump, alts flat / dump or BTC flat and alts dump. Just because alts have been pumping harder than BTC over the last few months, when it bounces, does not mean that will continue to happen. I can honestly say this is the first time I have sensed a divergence in the technicals. Will be watching very closely to see how everything proceeds from here.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 306)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < bullish L MA (recent death cross, watch for L MA to flatten / angle down. If that happens the fully bearish posture) Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Massive falling wedge??? Horizontals: R: $3,660 | S: $3,515 Trendline: Potential falling wedge Parabolic SAR: $3,942 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 3.79% spread (increased ever so slightly) BTCUSDSHORTS: Attempting to take out local low. If that happens target is 19,569 Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0028% TD’ Sequential: R2 = R1 Ichimoku Cloud: If you consider yesterday re entering then today it fell out along with a bearish TK Cross Average Directional Index: Still tracking toward the 20 threshold Price Action: 24h: -2.3% | 2w: -5.8% | 1m: +11.1% Bollinger Bands: MA is starting to flatten after finding support from the bottom band Stochastic Oscillator: Buy Signal Summary: In yesterday’s post @DVemer pointed out a long term bear trendline that stared with 2017’s ATH and connected to November 8, 2018. I found that very interesting and after further analysis I am seeing a potential falling with. If it is real then it carries at $16,800 measure move. It is far too early to make that call but so far there are four out of six boxes checked, based on the rules that I use. The last two steps would be breaking through the upper boundary on high volume. I would need to see the buying volume exceed the selling volume from November 20th, at an absolute minimum, in order to consider it sufficient. Even if that does happen I will be extremely skeptical due to the built up resistance at $6,000. I would likely go long but I would have a very, very hard time using a greater target than that in order to determine risk:reward. The craziest part of all is if we get to $16,800 I still would not be considering it an end to the overall bear market. Phase 7 of a hyperwave is "the most maniacal" according to Tyler Jenks and as long as it resists below the peak of phase 6 then it is still valid / in tact, meaning that a return to phase 1 would still be the target. Wouldn't you know that the top of my phase 6 is $17,252... Even though it is too early to call this pattern real, it is not to early to pay attention and mentally prepare yourself for anything. Never say never and always be open to possibilities. That is what I try my best to do. Even though I am firmly bearish I want to understand every bullish signal / indicator that is happening so that I don't get blind sided.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
5
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 303) b]Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < S MA < bullish L MA < bearish M MA - Price below a bullish L MA can represent a good buying opportunity. Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Parallel channel inside bear channel Horizontals: S: $3,561 | R: $3,709 & $4,000 Trendline: Connect end of March 2018 to bounce on Nov 27, 2018. Connect bottom of Feb 5 to bottom of Dec 7th. Parabolic SAR: $4,052 Futures Curve: Backwardation maintaining > 3.5% spread BTCUSDSHORTS: Closed below S MA. Watching for it to close below 22,700 Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0249% | Funding rates from last couple days are very bullish TD’ Sequential: R4 Ichimoku Cloud: I am amazed by how the price continues to stick to the bottom edge. Barely closed inside today and just close a bullish TK Cross and bullish Kumo Twist Relative Strength Index: Created new local low Price Action: 24h: -0.5% | 2w: -4.8% | 1m: +9.1% Bollinger Bands: Expecting a return the MA after closing below the bottom band. Look at how tight the 3d is squeezing! Stochastic Oscillator: Entering oversold territory. Recent sell signal on 3d. Summary: The bearish indicators are declining and the bullish indicators are building. Most important bullish indicators to me right now: Support holding strong at $3,500 following the selloff from a few days ago Price below bullish L MA (can indicate being oversold in a bull trend) Backwardation in the futures market Ichimoku Cloud - The best entries can occur when multiple metrics flip simultaneously Funding indicates shorts being overleveraged despite BTCUSDSHORTS pulling back to an area of support. Most important bearish indicators to me right now: We are still in a bear market Bear channel appears to be taking over as the dominant pattern (not including hyperwave). If the top of the bear trend holds for another week or so then a retest of $3,200 would seem inevitable. Stochastic sell signal on the 3d. Over the last few days it appeared to be a much more even fight. Now the bulls appear to be taking over, however I will not be confident a bounce is coming until we close above the top of the bear channel. I plan on waiting to see if that happens before looking to add to my long exposure. Even though there are more bullish indicators the fact that we are still in a bear market could be all that it takes to continue the selloff.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
11