Consensus Bullrun? Bitcoin still caught in long-term retracementHey fellow traders,
While trying to make sense of the bitcoin movements of the past weeks, I find that the fib retracement levels from last years latest bullrun still control much of the movements. Pretty much every high, every low and every sideways movement of the past few months is connected to a fib retracement level of this bullrun.
Our latest struggle has been the 0.618 fib level, which we failed to break convincingly last time. Bitcoin dropped down, finding support at the 50 day MA, and is currently trying to gather momentum to break through again. This time, however, we have the additional support of the Consensus 2018 event. In the past few years this event has consistently provided enough new energy and hype to propel the market significantly upwards, so I feel there is a good chance that we can use this energy to break through the 0.618 fib, and start hunting for the 0.5 fib which killed the previous attempt at a new run!
On the other hand, if we fail to convincingly break the 0.618 again, we should expect Bitcoin to drop down hard to well below 8k, and possibly towards new lows.
Bullish scenario (70%): Bitcoin touches 10k, falls back down to ~9.4k, finds support there, and then breaks 10k
Bearish scenario (30%): Bitcoin hits ~9.4k, fails to break through and falls back down below 9k
