Breakout Retest Possible?431 - 433 is a Good Support level as of now.
However, Extreme Pressure may bring the price towards
420 - 429 which is also the breakout re-test level.
Consolidation
GOLD → If you didn't catch the train, what should you do?FX:XAUUSD in a rally. Running into a train that is already in motion is prohibited due to the lack of ability to calculate risks. Ahead of the news, a correction is possible, which will allow us to find a place to trade
Gold continues to update an all-time high on the back of expectations of retail sales in the US and the speech of Fed chief Powell. Price growth was supported by strong data from China, increased demand for “protective assets” due to geopolitical tensions and trade risks between the U.S. and China. Additional support was provided by forecasts of gold price growth from ANZ to $3,600 by the end of the year
Technically, the psychological zones of interest 3325 - 3350 are ahead, from which a correction may form. The ideal scenario is to wait for a correction to local or intermediate support levels and only there look for an entry point.
Resistance levels: 3318, 3335, 3350
Support levels: 3275, 3265, 3244
On the background of a strong bull market it is worth using as a productive strategy to trade on the breakdown of resistance in order to continue growth, but in this case we need to wait for consolidation, we do not have it.
Or wait for correction, support retest and only then consider buying.
Regards R. Linda!
NZDUSD → Is there a chance for continued growth?FX:NZDUSD within the framework of the rally, which is associated with a strong decline in the dollar, is exiting the ascending channel and testing the resistance at 0.5922.
Against the backdrop of the falling dollar, which is associated with economic factors, the New Zealand has good chances to continue to grow. Consolidation of the currency pair above the level will indicate the readiness of the currency pair to continue to grow.
But! Today is quite a day full of economic news. Traders are waiting for Core retail sales & retail sales, as well as Powell's speech at 17:15 UTC. High volatility is possible!
Resistance levels: 0.5922, 0.6038
Support levels: 0.5853
A small correction may be formed from the resistance, but another retest and price consolidation above 0.5922 may be a good signal for both the bulls and us to make decisions. The currency pair has all chances to reach 0.6000
Regards R. Linda!
GBPCAD → False breakdown, where do we go from here?FX:GBPCAD is forming a false breakdown of trend support. Against the backdrop of the falling dollar, the pound sterling went into the rally phase, which is favorable for the currency pair.
The fundamental situation is in favor of GBP and CAD against the dollar, which continues its rapid decline.
As part of the correction, the currency pair forms a test of support without the opportunity to continue the downward movement. The maneuver ends with a false breakdown and consolidation above the level (inside the channel). The currency pair may continue the uptrend if the bulls hold the defense above 1.8144 - 1.823
Support levels: 1.81500, 1.79788
Resistance levels: 1.8233, 1.83796
Accordingly, based on the fact that we have an uptrend, a strong currency pair (on the background of a weak dollar) and a false breakdown of support, we can say that the price is not allowed down and it is worth considering an attempt to continue the uptrend.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Consolidation before the news. What to expect?FX:XAUUSD is not going to turn around. The level of economic risks is still at a high level and the price may continue to rise, but after the end of consolidation.
Gold is back to a record $3,246 despite calm markets. Lower US bond yields and a pause in capital withdrawals are supporting demand for protective assets.
Uncertainty around Trump's tariff policy and expectations of a Fed rate cut are driving prices higher. Additional support is provided by inflows into Chinese ETFs and expectations of Chinese GDP data. Further gold movement depends on headlines on tariffs and Fed rhetoric.
Technically, the focus is on consolidation 3244 - 3187 and internal support level 3208.
Resistance levels: 3244, 3270
Support levels: 3208, 3187
The market is likely to be in consolidation until tomorrow, when important economic reports will be published. But nevertheless, there could be strong movements intraday due to various factors. I expect to see a retest of support at 3208 or 3187 before further upside. But, consolidation near 3244, breakout and consolidation above the level may give a chance for growth
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Countertrend correction. What to do in this case?FX:XAUUSD , after a bull run, bumps into strong limit resistance at 3244 and enters a correction phase, which is generally a logical maneuver amid strong gains.
Gold corrects from Friday's record $3,245 and moves back to $3,200 amid improving market sentiment and progress in trade talks. The price pared gains after a strong weekly rally, reacting to U.S. concessions on tariffs on Chinese electronics and China's pledges to boost economic stimulus. Additional influences come from the dialog between the US and Iran, as well as the anticipation of China's GDP and trade data for March. Despite the pullback, downside may be limited due to ongoing uncertainty.
Technically, it is worth looking at the 3187 - 3167 conglomerate of support, which can stop (temporarily or even turn the price upward) a strong and sharp decline, as the fundamental backdrop within the tariff war is still tense.
Resistance levels: 3244, 3270
Support levels: 3187, 3174, 3167
The rally is temporarily halted, but there is no talk of a trend reversal, as the tariff war fire is still burning, Trump or Xi Jinping may add to the fire....
Within the framework of counter-trend correction, the emphasis is on the support of 3187, 3174, 3167 from which we can trade a false breakdown and catch the price rebound.
Regards R. Linda!
NZDJPY → Back in range, there's a chance to strengthenFX:NZDJPY is forming a false break of the range support and within the reversal pattern confirms the break of the bearish structure
The fundamental background has been extremely unstable lately and depends on any harsh statements of politicians, mainly related to the trade war.
But, technically, the pair is returning to the range on the background of local market recovery. A false breakdown of the range support is formed.
The break of the bearish structure, the formation of the reversal pattern and the return to the trading range give chances for strengthening of the price. If the bulls hold the defense above 83.7 - 84.2, the currency pair may strengthen to 85.15 - 87.4
Resistance levels: 84.196, 86.15
Support levels: 83.79, 83.31, 82.21
Consolidation above the key support zone may allow the bulls to strengthen the price to the local zone of interest. Global trend is neutral, local trend is upward.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Price is consolidating, but to what end? Growth?FX:XAUUSD continues on its way as part of a strong rally. Price is testing strong resistance and there is a good chance of a new high as the trade war escalation intensifies. Against the backdrop of the bull run, there is no need to think about selling!
Gold is trading near all-time highs above $3,200 on Friday, posting a weekly gain of about 5.5%. Rising prices are fueled by concerns over U.S. financial stability and the possible resignation of the Fed chief, adding to pressure on the dollar. Expectations of recession and Fed rate cuts are increasing amid escalating trade war with China, after the US imposed tariffs of 145% and Beijing retaliated - China raised tariffs to 125%. Inflation in March came in below expectations, reinforcing forecasts for a rate cut. Focus is on further trade talks and China's response
Resistance levels: 3219.5
Support levels: 3197, 3187, 3167
Emphasis on the local range: 3219 - 3187. Breakdown and price consolidation above the resistance will provoke rally continuation. But I do not rule out a correction to accumulate energy before the continuation of growth. In this case gold may test 3197 (0.7f), or support of 3187 range.
But we should be aware of the fact of unpredictability: If the US and China sit down for negotiations, the situation may change dramatically.
Regards R. Linda!
BITCOIN → Testing trend resistance. Will there be a breakout?BINANCE:BTCUSDT is approaching trend resistance and most likely it may test the liquidity zone and risk zone for sellers (liquidity hunt ?), but does the market have the potential to support the upside?
Bitcoin is strengthening and channel resistance may not stop this growth. Based on the nature of price movement (smooth, gradual, consolidating), bitcoin may test liquidity 84.7K - 88.8K. But it is too early to talk about further growth
On W1, the price is in a trading range (consolidation) between the previously broken global consolidation support and the current support. Short bodies, long shadows speak about consolidation. Also worth noting are the relatively long tails to the downside and the weak market reaction...
Fundamentally, the cryptocurrency market (community as a whole) for the past week did not get anything positive as from the very beginning of this year, the growth can be attributed to the 90-day technical break by Trump, but there are a number of nuances:
- the fire has not yet been put out
- just because they gave a 90-day break doesn't mean everything is fine. It's just a head start for the U.S. to prepare for the situation more thoroughly
- The escalating conflict between the U.S. and China has investors looking for less risky assets like gold. Cryptocurrencies are definitely not on that list.
- Rumors of a US interest rate cut are likely to provide support as well.
Resistance levels: 84700, 88800
Support levels: 78200, 73-74К, 66500
I would not hurry with conclusions about further growth. Growth could be considered if bitcoin overcomes 88800 and consolidates above this zone. But a sharp approach or a false breakout of one of the mentioned liquidity zones may provoke a reversal and fall.
Regards R. Linda!
HelenP. I Euro will decline to support zone, breaking trend lineHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. After breaking out from a long consolidation phase, the Euro entered a strong upward trend supported by a clearly defined trend line. This breakout was backed by strong momentum, allowing the price to push above Support 1 and climb rapidly. However, after reaching the 1.1450 area, bullish strength started fading. The market printed a sharp rejection from the highs, and soon after, the price broke back below the trend line. This breakdown signals a shift in sentiment. The price is now approaching the previous support zone between 1.1160 and 1.1120 points, which acted as a key accumulation area during the bullish move. The reaction from this zone will be crucial, but considering the breakdown from the trend line and the aggressive rejection from the top, sellers now appear to be in control. Currently, EUR is trading below the broken trend line, and bearish pressure continues to build. Given the rejection from higher levels, structure break, and weak recovery attempts, I expect EURUSD to decline toward my current goal at 1.1160 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
GOLD → Global economic risk indicator consolidates ahead of CPIFX:XAUUSD , rather quickly changes the market structure to bullish and continues its aggressive rally. The economic risk indicator is working perfectly. Technically, the focus is on the range 3135 - 3099
Gold is consolidating around $3,100 in anticipation of US inflation data. The escalating trade war between the US and China keeps demand for defensive assets alive despite the pause in price gains. Trump imposed 125% tariffs on Chinese goods and China retaliated with duties of 84% on U.S. imports. Increased tariff tensions are raising recession expectations and encouraging bets on a Fed interest rate cut, which supports gold. However, a rise in March CPI inflation (expected 2.6% y/y) could trigger a downward correction, although the impact could be short-lived - tariff news remains the main driver
Technically, the price failed to reach the 3135 liquidity zone and reversed, which attracted the crowd willing to sell (deceptive maneuver). But, after correction the price may return to the target quite quickly
Resistance levels: 3135, 3167
Support levels: 3100, 3090, 3077
Emphasis on the range boundaries, possible retest of 3100-3090- 3075 before continuation of growth. On the news or before the opening of the American session there may be a long squeeze before the continuation of growth.
Regards R. Linda!
DOGE → Will the market hold strength or lose it all?BINANCE:DOGEUSDT is testing the liquidity and resistance zone amid a downtrend as part of a news-induced rally. Will the market hold this trend or return to a sell-off?
The downtrend continues. As part of the correction triggered by the news backdrop, bitcoin strengthened and pulled the altcoins with it. But the market may lose all its growth quite quickly, as bearish pressure on the market is still very strong (There are no fundamental positive changes for the market). The fall of BTC may be followed by DOGE as well.
Technically, the price is forming a false break of the resistance zone 0.1622 - 0.15700, consolidation of the price below this zone will provoke the continuation of the fall to the nearest zone of interest 0.13646.
Resistance levels: 0.157, -0.1622
Support levels: 0.13646, 0.1277, 0.1154
A retest of the trend resistance is possible, but price consolidation below the key zone will be a good signal indicating the seller's strength, the decline may continue. On the weekly timeframe we have a trigger at 0.14217, break of which will open the way to 0.1277 - 0.1025.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Bounce back to accumulate energy before growthFX:XAUUSD confirms interim bottom at 2970 after a false breakdown and as part of the escalating trade war, price is strengthening from support to the important medium-term level of 3054.
Further dynamics will depend on the market reaction to the minutes of the March Fed meeting and the introduction of reciprocal tariffs between the US and China. The introduction of 104% duties on Chinese goods increases trade tensions, reduces investor confidence and supports the price of gold against the background of a weakening dollar. Even with the Fed's cautious rhetoric, gold may keep rising due to the escalating trade war.
The medium-term situation depends on the Fed (namely hints or actions on rate cuts), the trade war and negotiations on the situation in Eastern Europe
Resistance levels: 3054, 3077, 3099
Support levels: 3033, 3013 (0.5f), 2995
Since the opening of the session (the price has passed the daily norm) gold has exhausted the technical potential and the 3054 area may push the price down (false breakout). As part of a technical pullback, gold may test 3033 - 3013 before looking at upside attempts again.
Additional scenario: pullback to the fvg zone (0.7 - 0.79 fibo) before further growth.
Regards R. Linda!
USDCAD → Weak dollar provokes continuation of downtrendFX:USDCAD under the pressure of a weak dollar and downtrend may renew its lows. The fundamental background for the dollar is weak, the market reacts accordingly.
The dollar continues to fall - a reaction to the tariff war. Besides, additional pressure is created by the issue of interest rates reduction.
The currency pair is under the pressure of the downtrend. After a false resistance breakout, the price is consolidating in the selling zone. The trend change is confirmed by the cascade of resistances. Emphasis on the local range 1.4245 - 1.42018. The price exit from the consolidation will provoke the continuation of the fall
Resistance levels: 1.4245, trend boundary
Support levels: 1.4202, 1.415
Possible retest of resistance before further decline. But the price exit from the current range and consolidation of the price below 1.4202 - 1.4205 will provoke the growth of sales and further fall to 1.405 (zone of interest).
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Rising economic risks could push the price upwardFX:XAUUSD closed inside the range 2970 - 3060 and has all chances to strengthen as the situation between the USA and China is only getting hotter, which creates additional risks.
Gold continues to rally from its recent low of $2,957, back above the $3,000 level amid a weaker dollar and a pause in rising US bond yields. The market is reacting to escalating trade tensions between the US and China, including the threat of new 50% tariffs and possible countermeasures by Beijing. Strengthening expectations of Fed rate cuts and recovering risk appetite also support gold's growth, but the instability of global trade policy keeps investors uncertain.
At the moment the price is testing resistance at 3013 and after a small correction the assault may continue, and a break and consolidation above 3013 will open the way to 3033 - 3057.
Resistance levels: 3013, 3033, 3057
Support levels: 2996, 2981
The trade war and the complex, politician-dependent fundamental backdrop allows us to strategize relative to economic risk. Technically, we are pushing off the strong levels I have outlined for you. The overall situation hints that China will not just give up and Trump will not lose face. An escalation of the conflict could send gold higher.
The price may strengthen from 0.5 fibo, or from 3013
Regards R. Linda!
ADAUSDT → Correction to the liquidity zone before the fall ↓BINANCE:ADAUSDT is in a bear market, under pressure. An exit from consolidation and a pullback with the aim of retesting the resistance (liquidity zone) before further decline is formed
The fundamental background for cryptocurrencies is extremely negative. Bitcoin on yesterday's manipulation related to the 90-day tariff break, which was later denied by the White House began to form “helicopters” and high volatility. As the market calms down, the price returns to the selling zone, which creates pressure for Cardano as well.
Technically, a false breakdown of 0.5 fibo is formed and the price is consolidating near the local support at 0.5800. The breakdown and consolidation of the price below 0.58 will provoke the continuation of the fall. A retest of the previously broken consolidation support at 0.6300 is possible.
Resistance levels: 0.63, 0.6661
Support levels: 0.581, 0.5092, 0.4564
The market structure is exclusively bearish. A False breakout of resistance or breakdown of 0.581 will provoke a further fall, but the level of 0.5092, if broken, will finally drive the coin into the zone of emptiness, which may lead the price to fall to 0.45- 0.42.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Consolidation or continuation of the fall. 3013 triggerFX:XAUUSD is going through the strongest liquidation phase. The fall is triggered by profit-taking amid last week's strong news. Additional pressure is created by the strong NFP report released on Friday. The economic risk situation is bifurcating....
Gold prices rebounded after falling in the Asian session, consolidating the drop triggered by the intensifying trade war between the US and China. Donald Trump's comments about rejecting deals with China have heightened recession fears, raising the likelihood of a Fed rate cut.
Against this backdrop, there was increased interest in gold as a protective asset, despite the rise in the dollar and bond yields. However, further strengthening of gold is questionable due to profit taking and lack of new economic data from the US.
Technically, the price is consolidating under pressure against the support at 3017-3013. A descending triangle is forming on the local timeframe.
Resistance levels: 3033, 3057
Support levels: 3017, 3013, 2981
Based on the current situation and strong pressure on the market, we can expect two situations to develop:
1) breakdown of support 3017 - 3013, if the structure of the descending triangle on the local timeframe will be preserved. The target will be the support of 3000, 2981.
2) Or, the price will close inside the range with the target of consolidation between 3057 - 3033 - 3013 (consolidation of forces after a strong fall and liquidation)
Regards RLinda!
GBPNZD - TECHNICALS & FUNDAMENTALS📊 Technical Analysis – GBPNZD
🔻 Market Context:
Current Price: ~2.2838
The pair has been in a downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows.
Price recently revisited a previous support zone, indicated by the horizontal line and purple box, showing potential for either a reversal or a continuation.
🔍 Key Zones:
Support Zone: Around 2.2830 – 2.2800
Price is testing this area and has shown a few wicks indicating buyers are present.
Demand Reaction Needed: A bullish candle formation is crucial at this level to signal potential upside.
🔼 Bullish Scenario (Reversal Play):
If a strong bullish candle forms around current levels, it could lead to a push higher toward 2.3000 and potentially 2.3100.
Watch for a break of short-term lower highs with volume confirmation.
🔽 Bearish Scenario (Breakdown Play):
Failure to hold above the current support level (2.2830–2.2800) may result in a deeper drop, targeting the 2.2700–2.2650 area.
The Bear Bias zone (marked on the chart) suggests sellers are active and may continue to push lower if structure breaks.
🧠 Fundamental Probabilities – April 8, 2025
🇬🇧 UK Outlook (GBP):
No major economic data is scheduled today for the UK, but markets remain cautious due to:
Ongoing uncertainty around the BoE’s interest rate stance.
Sticky inflation and mixed signals from recent PMI data.
Pound strength has been mostly reactive to broader risk sentiment and interest rate expectations.
🇳🇿 NZ Outlook (NZD):
Key driver today: NZ Business Confidence & Dairy Auction
If business sentiment remains weak and dairy prices disappoint, NZD could come under pressure.
RBNZ's dovish bias is also lingering in the background; the central bank is expected to maintain or potentially cut rates if economic softness continues.
✅ Summary:
Bias Condition Target
🔼 Bullish Bullish candle at support 2.3000 / 2.3100
🔽 Bearish Break below 2.2800 2.2700 / 2.2650
XRPUSDT → The bulls won't hold support. Falling to 1.9BINANCE:XRPUSDT is under pressure despite quite positive news. The coin, being in a downtrend, continues to test the key support. The chance of a breakdown is growing
XRP continues to test a strong support zone on the weekly timeframe, relative to this zone, in the medium term, two scenarios can develop, which depend on the general mood in the market. If the current backdrop persists, the chance of a downside breakdown and further decline is quite high.
At the moment, the focus is on the key support at 2.0637, relative to which the retests continue, and the reaction is getting weaker and weaker, which in general only increases the chances of a further fall to 1.9 - 1.63.
Resistance levels: 2.265, 2.365, 2.509
Support levels: 2.0637, 1.9
The cryptocurrency market is going through bad times (Tariff War, high inflation, stock market decline, disappointment of the crypto community due to expectations) and until the situation starts to change, the technical picture will remain negative. XRP may continue its fall after a small correction.
Regards R. Linda!
CADJPY → Consolidation before the news. DowntrendFX:CADJPY continues to forge a downtrend, but within the current movement a symmetrical triangle of accumulative nature is forming
The currency pair may continue its decline due to the strengthening of the Japanese Yen, while the Canadian is consolidating in a narrow range.
The situation may be accelerated by today's news, namely Trump's speech, where he may announce new tariff measures.
Technically, the price is correcting after the false break of 103.56, being below the previously broken upside support. Price is testing key resistance at 104.90, and against 0.5 Fibo is forming a false breakout. A consolidation below 104.69, a break of 104.525 could trigger further decline.
Resistance levels: 104.900, 105.36, 105.74
Support levels: 104.525, 103.56
There are important news ahead, high volatility is possible, especially at the moment of Trump's speech, which may set a medium-term tone in the market.
The currency pair is in consolidation on the background of the downtrend and the priority is to expect a continuation of the fall
Regards R. Linda!
EOSUSDT → False Breakeout of resistance (counter-trend )BINANCE:EOSUSDT.P within the consolidation distribution 0.54 - 0.6 reaches the key resistance and forms a false breakdown without the possibility of continued growth.
The cryptocurrency market is showing weakness, especially after yesterday's Trump speech and the approval of new Tariffs, which creates risks and pressure on the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin is back in the red zone after rallying, while altcoins will continue to look for a new bottom. EOS stands out in this list, which strengthened quite strongly and the purpose of this maneuver was countertrend accumulation and liquidity capture relative to the range of 0.7 - 0.8. The distribution is tempered by a false breakout of the level 0.82 - 0.86
Resistance levels: 0.82, 0.86
Support levels: 0.793, 0.666
If the bears hold the resistance 0.82 - 0.86 and the consolidation under the level will end with the breakout of the trigger 0.793 and price consolidation in the selling zone, it may provoke a reversal and fall to the zones of interest: fvg, 0.64, 0.541.
Regards R. Linda!
SPXUSDT manipulated rise before the fallThe market is pulling back after a strong drop in the Asian session. At the moment, while bitcoin is showing -2%, BINANCE:SPXUSDT.P is accelerating by 15% in the hunt for liquidity.
Possible entry into liquidity zone and false resistance breakout
False resistance breakout
1) 0.5473
2) 0.6689
Market is bearish, no hint of growth
A pullback is forming with the aim of accumulation or liquidity before continuing the fall
The fall may continue after the bitcoin correction is over
GBPUSD → False break of weekly support + DXY fallFX:GBPUSD is going through a shakeout phase relative to the trading range. Last week was very challenging in terms of unpredictable moves and volatility.
A strong NFP report on Friday allowed the dollar to strengthen, but the reaction from the opening of the new trading week has already exhausted itself as traders are still watching the tariff war, which simply crashed the stock, futures markets.
Technically, the currency pair on this background can win out, as the pound sterling within the ascending trend, the fall of the dollar can continue the growth phase.
On the chart, the price forms a false breakdown of the support conglomerate, which in general may push the price up due to the imbalance of liquidity and interests of money moving away from the dollar
Resistance levels: 1.2932, 1.3010
Support levels: 1.2828, 1.2811
If the bulls will keep the price above 1.2868 and will be able to consolidate above 1.2932, in the short term the market can show growth up to the next target - resistance 1.3010.
Regards R. Linda!
