Consumer
Facebook for scam crypto adsOn Friday, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) said it had instituted federal court proceedings against Facebook owner Meta Platforms, Inc.
“The ACCC alleges that this conduct was in breach of the Australian Consumer Law (ACL) or the Australian Securities and Investments Commission Act (ASIC Act),” the Australian regulator said in a statement. “It is also alleged that Meta aided and abetted or was knowingly concerned in false or misleading conduct and representations by the advertisers.
Debt-Demand-Inflation-Crypto- ! WHAT HAPPENED IN FEBRUARY ! This is CRYPTOFILIO - Your dark knight in the lightness... Your peaches and cream, your crypto dream
Sometimes it's best to look under the bed to find the economic boogeyman!
This chart illustrates the interesting correlations between various macroeconomic factors. There are two key moments of recent divergence. The beginning of the pandemic and recently, February 2021. The first is rather obvious - THE PANDEMIC - but the second event... not so obvious!
Pre-pandemic these economic macro-factors were dancing in lockstep. Debt,Consumer Demand, and Inflation - Then you can see the wild divergence at the beginning of the pandemic. What's not so explainable and kind of interesting is the recent, very noticeable shift in February of this year. The bottom pane is the total crypto market cap (in a different scale). The percentage increase is very dramatic - showing just how much money has moved into crypto.
ABCD Pattern of ICBPDisclaimer on,
This is a personal opinion, I am not responsible for your trading results.
Trade with your own risk.
After experiencing a correction and stalled at the 0.5 Fibonacci ratio area which also coincides with the EMA 21 and EMA 34 areas, ICBP stock are seen to continue their strengthening.
The price target to be targeted is at the level of Rp10,025, with the basis of the ABCD pattern and also the classic resistance level.
$SONO back towards $45It has maintained overperformance over the consumer discretionary sector (represented by XLY) but has lost some of its relative strength against it.
It appears that the extra alpha and extreme overperformance is going to be back on SONO 's side based on the chart bottom chart where the relative strength is hitting a level that usually would result in a bounce back.
They have earnings coming up and tend to trade very well after earnings, at least initially. On average based on the last 3 earnings reports, they could have roughly a 25.77% return after this upcoming earnings report.
This is also a holiday/seasonal trade for me. They should have a killer quarter.
The company is also extremely well managed and the product is unbelievable. Sonos isn't going anywhere anytime soon unless they get acquired AT A PREMIUM.
Midea Announces the First 3 Quarters' Financial Results for 2021For the first three quarters, the domestic revenue increased by 24.7% and the overseas revenue increased by 15.51% compared with the same period last year.
According to Midea's financial results for the first three quarters of 2021:
- The revenue increased by 20.57% to CNY 261.342 billion, and net income attributable to the parent company was CNY 23.455 billion, with an increase of 6.53% year-on-year. Among them, Q3 revenue achieved CNY 87,532 million (up 12.66% YoY), while the net profit attributable was CNY 8,446 million (up 4.4% YoY).
- The company's domestic revenue increased by 17% in the third quarter of 2021, while overseas revenue increased by 6.4%. By the end of September, the company had added more than 36,000 overseas private label outlets for the whole year.
- The net cash flow from operating activities was CNY 27,897 million, with an increase by 11.52% compared to the same period last year, while its own capital amounted to CNY 128.1 billion (up 2.4% YoY).
- The company's research and development expenses amounted to CNY 8,765 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.51%.
- The online and offline shares of the domestic air-conditioning market are 34.8% and 35.8%, respectively.
- The online and offline shares of washing machines are 35.2% and 27.5%, respectively.
- The online and offline shares of refrigerators are 18.6% and 14.5%, respectively.
Founded in 1968, Midea is a global technology group covering five business sectors. It has about 200 subsidiaries with more than 60 overseas branches and 10 strategic business units, whose products and services benefit more than 200 countries and regions around the world for over 400 million users. It was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on September 18, 2013. As of the close of trading on October 29, 2021, the company's share price edged up by 0.95% to CNY 68.77, with a market capitalization of CNY 480.2 billion, ranking first in the domestic white home appliances industry.
ATER heading back to $20?Not a financial advisor.
ATER has recently pulled back after seeing movement back to the $18ish area. (Extended Hours)
I previously stated that I have a price target of $25. I believe we have the potential to see that fairly soon.
If we manage to get over the 50 MA on the daily, see a little retest of breaking past that, we should see the movement coming to bring us to that $20 area.
So if we can get ATER to run close to that 13.08 fib then retrace creating divergence for an up coming bounce off the 50 MA around 12.14 area. That should give us enough pop off momentum to get back to that $17 range. From there I would think we would need a little extra cool off to gain the power to retest / breakthrough that $20 resistance.
Higher timeframes have more room. Just calling it how I see things unfolding. Chime in with your thoughts, always great hearing others voice their thoughts.
Dada Nexus Beats Q2 2021 Earnings Estimates, Growth AcceleratesCreating extra value for JD.com's 530 million active users will be the company's next strategic endeavor.
With the tumultuous unfolding around China's major New York-listed tech companies, plenty of mid-cap stocks have been affected as well, losing their market value in 2021. In some cases, however, investors' fear has little to nothing to do with the firms' real fundamentals.
Dada Nexus (DADA:NASDAQ) may be one such company. The Chinese operator of on-demand delivery and retail platforms recently posted its Q2 2021 financials. This time, the key results slightly exceeded both the analyst consensus and the firm's own projections, showing a pro forma revenue growth of 81.3% (the revenue recognition model was changed in April) and CNY 549 million in net loss – the Street's average expectation was CNY 615 million.
Dada was founded in 2014 as an "open local on-demand delivery platform" and took its present form after a merger with JD.com's (JD:NASDAQ) spinoff JDDJ in 2016; since the completion of that deal, it has been developing around a duo of products, boosting the core services' scope and building adjacent businesses and partnerships. In June 2020, the firm went public on Nasdaq, raising funds vital to stay competitive in the ongoing battle for Chinese consumers.
A growth-stage company, Dada is scrambling for a larger market share while moving towards profitability. Throughout the June quarter, its expansion continued.
This article looks at the key indicators' dynamics to analyze Dada Now and JDDJ's performance within those three months. We first crunch the newly reported data, then calculate key ratios to track the progress in financials and unit economics. To top it off, we provide a glance at Dada's tech initiatives beyond the two platforms.
"JD's over 530 million users" and COVID-19
In the twelve months through June 2021, the number of JDDJ's active users reached 51.3 million, increasing by 58.8% year-on-year. Dada relates this growth, among other things, to its cooperation with JD.com. During the earnings call, the company's executives stated that it "continued to win customers' trust" and is going to proceed with the "in-depth cooperation with JD to better serve the omnichannel and on-demand needs of JD's over 530 million active users." In addition, a new tool is being constructed at the intersection of the two digital ecosystems: 'Fujin', the former's entry point within the latter's app, has been tested in a handful of cities, including Shenzhen and Shanghai.
The duet's convergence is happening amid a post-COVID boom in the Chinese on-demand retail market. The number of users in the space has lately skyrocketed and is projected (link in Chinese) to grow at a 31% CAGR from 2019 to 2023. Consumers have changed their shopping habits forever.
It's also crucial that despite the magnitude of new possible outbreaks in China, this trend will remain strong, as the fix-cost-burdened offline stores are embracing online traffic. And Dada is among the country's top platforms that drive brick-and-mortar players' online sales, accelerating their adoption of digital tools.
From the ESG perspective, COVID-19 has pushed Dada Group to shoulder more social responsibility. Its executives stated that the company had worked "closely with local governments to provide the daily supplies and the on-demand delivery for the customers," and, as a result, "received recognition from the government."
More merchants, new partners and categories
Users are just a part – although the most critical one – of the story. The supply-side matters as much. As per the company, this quarter, JDDJ made significant progress in category expansion.
In retrospect, Dada started its business with groceries and has now covered a number of areas, such as pharma and apparel. By now, it has been taking the lead in the supermarket category and seeking partnerships with big chains. By the end of Q2 2021, hands had been shaken between Dada and "80 chains out of China's top 100."
The most recent attempt in the consumer electronics arena was emphasized a couple of times in the investor conference. As on-demand retailing has gradually been recognized by smartphone manufacturers, Dada has partnered with hundreds of distributors and established cooperation with Apple and vivo, among other major brands. Besides, the company stepped further into the PC category, cooperating with Microsoft, Asus, Dell and Alienware, among others. In response to an analyst's question, the executives disclosed that the potential of some new categories, including home appliances and cosmetics, will be further explored.
User acquisition at full pelt
In Q2, Dada's total expenses have added to around CNY 2.21 billion. The sales and marketing cost grew from CNY 386 million in Q2 2020 to CNY 824 million in Q2 2021. According to the unaudited financial results, this boost was mainly driven by the rising "incentives given to JDDJ consumers" and "referral fees paid to retailer store staff and third parties" to attract new users to the platform. Considerable investment was also directed to R&D, showing the intention to build comprehensive tech products on top of the company's commercial network. (One is Haibo.)
The operations and support expenses reached CNY 1.14 billion, compared with CNY 1.10 billion in the same quarter of 2020. The rise in rider cost stemming from the increasing intra-city delivery order volume mainly contributed to the accretion of this category; but this was partially offset by the decrease of rider-related costs incurred by the last-mile delivery business model upgrade – "effective since April 2021, the cost of riders for last-mile delivery services has been directly paid through third-party companies instead of through the company."
Even though the company experienced massive revenue growth in Q2, the spending on market expansion has kept the net profit margin at low levels. On a sequential basis, though, Dada improved its net profit margin, thanks to the efficiency gain in operations and consumer incentives.
Unit economics steadily improving
Positive dynamics in absolute figures, be it revenue or user pool growth, are never enough to claim success for a pre-profit platform economy enterprise. Dada's key business ratios, nonetheless, show some progress, too.
The trailing-twelve-months (TTM) revenue of JDDJ jumped from CNY 1.10 billion in Q4 2019 to CNY 2.97 billion in Q2 2021. In the meantime, the number of the platform's new users has been growing steadily, from 24.4 million to 51.3 million, up by 110.2%. The average revenue per user (ARPU) thereby rose from CNY 45.20 to CNY 57.90.
Using Meituan's Q2 2019 number (53.6%) as a proxy for quarter-on-quarter user retention rate (as opposed to customer churn) and the only assumption in this analysis, we found that JDDJ's user base may not only grow on the TTM basis, but the speed might have been accelerating continuously over the past eight quarters, which was perhaps caused by the platform's significant word-of-mouth marketing potential and effective referral system.
New tech, no red flags
Reporting a financially solid three-month period, Dada announced a few other updates this time. For one thing, it included an extra 1,000 stores into SaaS Haibo's network. The company is also developing an open autonomous delivery operation system, enabling on-demand retail applications for various hardware providers. The system has been tested and reportedly adopted by JD's SEVEN FRESH and Yonghui Superstores.
Both projects are narratives to keep tabs on. Those are highly likely to become key differentiators in the upcoming maturity phase of the on-demand delivery and retail market.
Over the past quarters, Dada Nexus has been growing at high double digits; good fundamentals and a balanced tactical arsenal are set to protect its market position.
For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
AFRM UpdateAffirm - sold and closed out of it today hoping for a gap fill of some sort so I can re-buy. Average cost was $64 on AFRM.
I bought because big time traders were pissing all over it on Twitter but since they dont visit consumer sites - they didn't see it. I saw Affirm logo on many many e-commerce stores and Amazon's big stamp of approval just showed that Affirm is the winner.
I will be honest, I have been very nervous about it from day one but not once thought of selling, instead added on the dip. In fact, I am even questioning why I decided to sell today. Anyways, will rebuy lower if Powell lets me. Neutral at the moment to see what price actions tells me next.
Nayuki Announces H1 2021 Financial ResultsNayuki turned losses into profits in the first half of 2021 and its stock price rose 10% following the opening on August 26. As of the noon break, the tea maker was priced at HKD 11.1 per share.
According to the firm's mid-term performance report for 2021:
- The revenue reached CNY 2.13 billion, achieving a year-on-year increase of 80.2%.
- The adjusted net profit reached CNY 48.20 million, compared with a loss of CNY 63.50 million in the same period last year.
- In terms of business, the revenue of Nayuki was CNY 2 billion (up 0.4%), accounting for 94.4% of the total revenue; the revenue of Tai Gai, another business under the company, was CNY 77.53 million (down 1.7%), accounting for 3.6% of the total revenue; and revenue of other businesses was CNY 41.89 million (up 1.3%), accounting for the remaining 2.0%.
- As of June 30, 2021, Nayuki has up to 578 stores. During the first half-year, 93 new stores were opened, with 65.6% of them situated in Tier 1 and new Tier 1 cities.
- In terms of the type of stores, within the first half-year, 49 new PRO stores based in shopping malls were opened, adding up to 20 in total; 29 office-building PRO stores have appeared up to a total of 12; standard stores have reached a total of 492 in number with an increase of 9.
- As of June 30, 2021, the number of members had reached 36.5 million, representing a year-on-year increase of more than 30%. The repurchase rate reached 30.3% in Q2 2021, compared with 25.6% in 2019 and 29.8% in Q4 2020 respectively, all above the industry average.
MARKET ALPHA - UNUSUAL OPTION ACTIVITYI am going to post some more ideas from our unusual options screener.
After seeing some of the plays uncovered here I think it would be awesome if more people could benefit from charts and ideas like this one.
For this post we are looking at Starbucks. We are seeing increasing call activity come in on the October 1st Contract at the 125 strike. Let's see how it plays out! Thanks for tradingview for allowing the feature where we can easily track the progress of ideas.
NASDAQ:SBUX
Vipshop Announces Q2 2021 Financial ResultsIn Q2 2021, the company generated CNY 29.6 billion in revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 22.8%.
According to Vipshop's Q2 2021 financial announcement:
- Revenue rose by 22.8%, reaching CNY 29.6 billion.
- Net profit hit CNY 1.1 billion, representing a year-on-year decline of 26.7%.
- As of June 30, 2021, Vipshop had cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of CNY 16.5 billion.
- In Q2 2021, the company had a total of 51.1 million active users, showing a year-on-year growth of 32%, and the size of its VIP paid membership increased by nearly 50%.
- Moreover, GMV exceeded CNY 48.1 billion, representing a rise of 25%, while the number of orders reached 222 million, showing an increase of 30%.
- The firm's total operating expenses were CNY 4.8 billion (up 26.3%), accounting for 16.4% of total net revenue compared with 15.8% in the same period of 2020.
- Among them, its fulfillment expenses hit CNY 2.1 billion (an increase of 23.5%), marking up 6.9% of total net revenue compared with 7.0% in Q2 2020.
- At the same time, Vipshop's marketing expenses reached CNY 1.4 billion (up 40%), taking up 4.8% of total revenue compared with 4.3% in the previous year; technology and content expenses were CNY 370 million, increasing 21.3% year-on-year; and its general and administrative expenses hit CNY 1.0 billion (a growth of 24.2%), accounting for 3.4% of total net revenue compared with 3.3% in the same period in 2020.
Bitcoin Rally Induces More Bag Holders Plus RSI DIVERGENCEGood day guys! Let me start off by saying that I do like Bitcoin and what it represents for us as retail traders. Now with that being said, I posted an analysis about two months ago or so pointing out the massive head and shoulder pattern. I received some disgruntled Bitcoin supporters. Then, a couple weeks later other big analyst started pointing it out as well. Mind you, we did profit from the 12000+ pip move to the downside and off the buying as well.
Furthermore, with Bitcoin going as low as to the 29k mark. However, our stops were triggered in profit and we recognized the exhaustion. The exhaustion was presented at the neckline of the massive head and shoulder pattern. The unique thing is Gold had revealed the same massive pattern as well. We all know how that ended, before the massive rejection. You can check the previous analysis that was posted, I called that setup.
Continuing on, Bitcoin is showing some extreme bearish divergence in the RSI, while price action continues to suck others into this rally. Understand this, when it comes to market structure, there is always a rally in a downtrend and a sell off in an uptrend. The bigger the rally in an uptrend, the bigger the drop and vice versa. When it comes to trading on higher time frames or from a macro view, it sometimes take time for you to see it through. However, that does not mean it is not going to happen. Those who have been following me knows that I am a long term trader. I look for setups that can be held for several days, weeks and if necessary months. However, I do provide intraday setups as well to snack on. You can see that we are approaching a level where this divergence is unsustainable.
In conclusion, I still do see the price of Bitcoin going back to its 2017 highs to build up support. There is a high probability that if the 2017 highs does not hold up, it will fall through to find a new floor and that mean Bitcoin could go as low as $9700. This is not an opinion with no data. This is simply the technicals are telling a story in regards to where the price of Bitcoin could be headed. Most who are crypto traders know that when Bitcoin suffers, other cryptocurrencies go with them. This will be an even greater opportunity to buy at these levels. For beginner traders or those who are not as experiences I want you to understand this, Bitcoin is volatile and can move aggressively. Therefore, make sure you are aware of risk management before trading and consult with a financial advisor before entering into a position. If you enjoy seeing mark ups from us, feel free to leave a comment to let us know. Well we do appreciate you for checking out our post and remember, we will see you on the other side.
Rodrick Goss (CEO)
Third Eye Traders
Consumers are pulling back quickly as Uncertainty ReignsThe Indices will see a healthy correction into the Seasonal Period of Extreme Weakness.
We Anticipate a LARGE Selloff to begin during Globex Sunday followed by further selling
into Monday.
The PRICE of the things we need is an issue... it is not lost on Institutions.
They are heavily positioning for SELL.
AiHuiShou: Company with Strong Closed-Loop Chain CapacityThe second-hand 3C platform is among the most promising businesses in the space in China.
On June 18, 2021, Aihuishou was listed on NYSE under the ticker RERE by issuing 16.23 million American Depositary Shares (ADS). According to the company, 60% of the funds raised in the IPO will diversify services, and expand its AHS store network and sales. 20% will be used to improve technology capabilities further, and another 20% will be used for general operations. As the first ESG US-listed Chinese share offering, the IPO has attracted much attention.
Founded in 2011, Aihuishou is one of China's largest second-hand computer, communications and consumer electronics (3C) platforms and one of the pioneers in the industry. After ten years of development, it now has four major business segments, realizing a C2B + B2B + B2C closed-loop value chain: C2B recycling platform (Aihuishou), B2B trading platform (PJT Marketplace), B2C retail platform (Paipai Marketplace), as well as its overseas business (AHS Recycle). On the supply side, the JD.com and Aihuishou offline stores attract stable supply. At the processing end, it has set up seven regional operation centers and 23 city-level operation stations in China for proprietary inspection, grading and pricing. At the end of the sales, the PJT Marketplace can ensure the products flow at high speed (shortening the flow time by three times), while the B2C platform can make the products go directly to the C-end to improve the profit margin.
Aihuishou has completed six rounds of financing prior to its IPO. Many well-known institutional investors have great regard for the company, such as JD.com, 5Y Capital, IFC, Cathay Capital and Guotai Junan International. Before the IPO, JD Entities held 34.7%, being the largest institutional holder. 5Y Capital owns 14.0%, the largest VC investor, while Tiantu Investment and Tiger Global fund have 8.5% and 7.3%. Notably, in its IPO, two existing shareholders, JD and Tiger Global purchased USD 50 million Aihuishou ADSs respectively, showing an optimistic attitude towards its long-term development.
Financials
In 2020, Aihuishou achieved revenue of CNY 4.86 billion, up 23.6% year over year, and reported a shrinking net loss of CNY 470.6 million (CNY 202.8 million with non-GAAP adjustment). Then in the first quarter of 2021, its revenue surged by 118.8% to CNY 1.51 billion compared with the same period of 2020. It indicates a strong growth momentum of the company.
Further analysis of the company's revenue structure, net services revenue is a bright spot. The proportion of net services revenue rose from 0.4% in 2018 to 13.5% in the first quarter of 2021. In 2020, the company's net services revenue reached CNY 614 million, with a CAGR of 627.7% since 2018. Net services revenue comes from charging commission fees to merchants and customers for transacting in its online marketplaces, and the increase of the proportion indicates it gradually wins market recognition and continuously refines its revenue structure. As for the primary revenue source, the company's net product revenue reached CNY 4.24 billion in 2020, up 13.8% year-over-year, remaining robust.
High operating costs are serious problems for the company. In 2020, the company's costs reached CNY 5.35 billion. When deconstructing the costs, merchandising costs accounted for more than 70%, mainly consisting of the cost of acquired products coming through the AHS platform and inbound shipping charges for its product sales. Although we think that the rising costs reflect the company's expansion plan, the high cost may damage the company's profitability.
Opportunities and threats
The company's opportunities are obvious. First of all, Aihuishou joined a market with great potential. According to Aihuishou's prospectus, China's second-hand electronic products trading and service market has great potential. China's pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services market size reaches CNY 252.2 billion GMV in 2020, and the market is expected to grow at a 30.8% CAGR to reach CNY 967.3 billion by 2025.
Secondly, the company occupies a high market share and maintains a high growth. Its total GMV reached 22.8 billion, and the number of consumer products transacted on its platform reached 26.1 million for the twelve months ending March 31, 2021, up 66.1% and 46.6%, respectively, year-over-year. In the second-hand 3C trading sector, in 2020, The company’s GMV for electronics and the number of devices transacted on its platform were both ranking the top and greater than the following five largest platforms combined.
At the same time, the profit model of the company's offline stores has been proved feasible. According to TMTPost, the early decoration cost of an Aihuishou offline store is estimated to be CNY 70,000 to 100,000, and the rent and salary expenses are about 30,000 CNY per month. Considering the average monthly sales revenue is about 600,000 CNY, and the gross profit rate is about 20%, the payback period of investing in such a store is less than three months. More than 98% of its stores have made profits, indicating that the company has a great chance to turn losses into profits in the future.
However, there are two obvious threats or risks. First, the company does not have an advantage in the whole second-hand e-commerce market, though it is a leader in the second-hand 3C sector. According to Big Data Research, in March 2021, Xianyu (Idle Fish) and Zhuanzhuan occupied about 90% of the second-hand e-commerce market, with a total MAU of over 70 million. In contrast, the MAUs of Aihuishou only take less than 2% of the whole market, through two platforms with only 1 million MAU. Although its main competitors may focus on other kinds of second-hand products, high traffic on these platforms means they can encroach on Aihuishou’s shares easily.
Another risk is that, before the IPO, the two founders sold their holdings at a discount, indicating a lack of confidence. According to the prospectus, founder and CEO Xuefeng Chen reduced 1,995,981 shares, and co-founder Wenjun Sun sold 600,645 shares in February 2021 in a series F with a price lower than the preferred shares. It may not be a good sign that the founders are selling their holdings at a discount when the company's operating cash flow is insufficient.
Valuation and bottom line
Considering that the company has yet to turn a profit and no Chinese ESG company can be used as comparable companies, we used EV/revenue ratios to analyze its valuation and picked five related companies: BQ, MKD MPNG.Y, PDD, and SECO. The average EV/revenue of the competition is 5.42x, while RERE's EV/revenue is 5.43x. Based on the valuation and the analysis of its opportunities and threats, we gave it a neutral rating.
Further analyzing the strategies that it should adopt, we think the company may need to focus on the following two ways to maintain its industry advantage. First, helping to establish industry standards is a way out. Second-hand recycling is a specific non-standard industry. The second-hand pieces of 3C equipment sold online and offline are numerous brands and of uneven quality. The establishment of a relatively transparent price evaluation mechanism can stabilize its market share. Secondly, it is necessary to control C-end costs. In the second-hand e-commerce market, both users and sellers naturally gather on the top platforms. A higher user utilization rate will also reduce the marginal cost of each offline store, which we think is the key to turning losses into profits. Considering this IPO aims to develop new sales channels for the B2C platform and further improve the penetration rate of C-end purchases, we think it is a good omen and is worth further attention.
For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.