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Interesting divergence SPY/XLYI was messing around with my charts and noticed that SPY and XLY (Consumer Discretionary) are diverging. Looking back in time - with the exception of one littler divergence a couple years ago - I can't find anywhere else this has happened. Is this maybe a sign that the consumer is getting overly confident? When fear is turned off, things eventually get out of control. The other thing I noticed is that XLP (Consumer Staples) is gapping away from SPY and XLY to the upside. Guess when the last time XLP gapped away from SPY and XLY?? Yep, you guessed it! It was last year right before the market tanked. This would also (maybe) be a sign that consumers are getting overly confident.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Bankuur
Month-End Continuation & MoreSame idea as in previous chart. This is zoomed in to show the main points of resistance. 2 areas of concern with rising wedge in these recent times and stretched RSI. Very likely turnaround point in the next week or so. If it breaks past the fib line, then there will assuredly be snubbing right at the resistance line set by the previous peaks. The overall trend aims downward still just with greater range for volatility. The broad chart shows areas of potential bounce from the long term trends set from the previous 10-20 years. Intruding beneath these points will violate extremely long term sets of support. 2 are depicted here from the 'line 1' and 'line 2'. I'm making a "why not" prediction as far as the timing with the green line I'd crudely drawn in our future. Seems as though that historically, the steeper climbs give steeper falls, and the more gradual inclines will mirror a gradual descent. We are in an era of just the opposite. Short periods of time with rapid ascent. So, I'd imagine just the same with the coming down from our highest high at nearly 27,000 pts for the DJI. Though I have no crystal ball, and I could be painfully wrong, this seems passable to me. Consumers still have the power to extend themselves for longer than we can predict, and the mere culture of my country can exhaust every bit of leverage capacity in ways not seen before. It very well could be that we climb out of these slows and right up past the highs to reclaim new territory and keep this sick machine turning for another half-decade, and I would be equally unsurprised, but I have no doubt that what we are doing now has incredible consequences.
DJ:DJIShort
by thehoplite
KSS - Neutral Iron CondorThe stock price broke out from a range, made what looks like a head-n-shoulders pattern, and can mirror the channel pattern it made before the head-n-shoulders. Volatility is high and this is a neutral directional bet on the price action. 47.5/50/77.5/80 JAN19 IRON CONDOR @ 0.45 CREDIT General plan: Roll if necessary & if possible to reduce risk. Target maximum profit, unless significant profit appears early. Comment or direct message for discussion, or on other interesting ideas! Follow for updates.
NYSE:KSS
by themdtrader
DEO breaks out of ascending triangle to gap above .50 FibEstablish long position now and accumulate strongly if shares break above 143.75. DEO shares rose 1.33% on 11/8 and closed near the top their range, forming a bullish pin candlestick. This comes after having opened significantly higher (>$3) than the previous close, leaving a gap around $140 that may enact some gravitational pull on share prices in the near-term. This risk is far outweighed, in my view, by looks to be a break out out from an ascending triangle continuation pattern, an interpretation which would allow shares to move quickly higher into 2019 as they reclaim and then far outpace the appreciation they enjoyed in September. - Bullish cross of DI+ above DI- reflect the lower highs and higher lows throughout October, a classic sign of an ascending triangle continuation pattern. After a brief but intense period of consolidation, the buying pressure in the stock has finally 'won' out, and yesterday's bullish - While ADX continues to decline further below 20, this is acceptable in my view given the large positive and negative swings associated with triangle consolidation. Note: ADX measures strength (but not direction) of trends, and levels below 20 are generally associated with weakening or non-trending (rangebound) shares. This is technically the weakest part of the chart, and improvement in this line back above 20 would give strong incremental confirmation of the potential bullish continuation. - I still think some shares are definitely worth buying before this occurs. Looking closer at ADX, the rate of decline has been decelerating over the past week, and the rightmost edge of the line has just shown a minor but undeniable inflection back into an upward slope. - MUCH MORE IMPORTANT (and more intuitive), the movement of the ADX line shows visible correlation with the green DI+ line throughout October's ups and down. Since DI+ and D- are measures of trend direction (cumulative recent up moves vs. down moves), the relationship suggested strong commitment from Bulls throughout the month of October, 'stepping up' to fuel brief recoveries while not strong enough to notch higher highs (hence Rising Triangle). -------- Rough Notes: *** The idea is that these mini-rallies, with the DI+ crossing above DI-), create pent-up volume...confirmed in BOTH signals... would lvoe to have three but might as well take a chance now...shares look cheap, The one bar outside the triangle suggested Current share prices of are ALMOST EXACTLY EQUIDISTANT in upside/downside between 52-week high and low. at first that the bears shows INDECISION, another debatably positive sign in my view (Bulls are 'stepping up' to meet selling pressures). - This correlation is a notable change from September, when a sub-20 and weakening ADX line failed to confirm the short-term lift - There are several obvious recovery in DEO. Note that the signal was falsely - Last but not least we see a consistent building in On-Balance-Volume (OBV), a leading price and volume indicator that may be interpreted as "Smart Money". Just as we saw in ABX, OBV did NOT confirm the pre-October run-up in DEO shares, and I note current declines are reflecting recent consolidation in the stock as bears give up their tough is acceptable in this case as triangle's are precursors giving further support to the ascending triangle interpretation, - More notably, a close - Above logic may imply ... -
NYSE:DEOLong
by jginnetty17
XLY Elliott Wave View: Trading At Equal Legs ExtremeXLY ended the cycle from 08/02 low (109.99) at the peak of 09/20 at 118.23 in blue wave (3). Below from there, the ETF has been correcting that cycle in the sequences of 3-7 or 11 swings. From 09/20 peak XLY has reached the equal legs area towards 115.55-114.95. The internals of that pullback has been unfolding as an Elliott Wave A-B-C correction. The first leg lower ended red wave A at 09/24 low (115.72). Above from there, it ended red wave B pullback at 10/01 peak (118.14). The internals of that pullback unfolded as an Elliott Wave Double correction which ended black wave ((w)) at 09/26 peak (117.76), black wave ((x)) pullback at 09/26 low (116.65) and finally black wave ((y)) of red wave B at 10/01 peak (118.14). Below from there, it reached the mentioned equal legs area (blue box) and it should see soon a bounce higher. Currently, it is trading at the equal legs extreme area (blue box) of red A-B and soon it should end blue wave (4). Afterwards, the ETF is expected to find buyers looking for new highs or for 3 wave bounce at least as long as pivot at 113.98 stays intact.
AMEX:XLY
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Massive Alpha To Be Found In This Chicken Spread!So this spread revolves around the simple, brutal strength that we are seeing in the economy right now. People are spending huge amounts of money on eating out right now, and given the ISM and UMCSI numbers I don't see that slowing down any time soon. Here, we pit a strong, cyclical restaurant chain specializing in chicken against a weak, defensive, consumer staples that is losing market share and in the worst spot from a macro perspective. This one's an easy winner. I was in this morning with a 3-1 R:R 40% target. Don't forget to hedge out those betas! Cheers, Andrew
NASDAQ:WINGLong
by wolneyaa
HYPERBITCOINIZATION: dollar purchasing power down 94% since 1914Purchasing power ( PP -25.00% ) is a measure of strength of a currency. It represents a quantity of goods & services that can be bought by a unit of currency. Since 1914 the purchasing power of the US dollar -0.89% is down 96 %. The calculation is simple. We take the consumer price index ( CPI 0.24% ) for the USA and divide every value by the value for our base year (1914), then multiply by 100 to get a percentage: PP -25.00% = CPI_i / CPI_base * 100 The CPI 0.24% is itself a measure of economic strength and its rate of change forms the basis of inflation . From Wikipedia: "The CPI 0.24% is a statistical estimate constructed using the prices of a sample of representative items whose prices are collected periodically." Since the introduction of a de facto system of free floating fiat currencies in the early 70s, the decline has been slow but persistent 3.66% . It looks very much like an asymptotic decay, where the value will go to zero over an infinite 2.39% amount of time. Inflation may effect the rate of decline, but it seems that the natural process in this case is decline.
REducation
by RealMcafee
13
Slow, Steady Growth in 2018 w/ Tech + China (PT: $183)It looks and feels like MCD will be hovering/consolidating around the $160 mark until more news comes in to spurt growth back into the $170 range. No major recovery from February has really taken place, even with the last quarter beats. Death Cross? As a company embracing more technology, initiatives have already been taken in the first half to help grow the second half. Operations initiatives will be updated as more upgrades happen and the China refranchising will also be concluded. I think it will be slow, but steady going the rest of the year for MCD, but it's a long term stock for a lot of people, so accumulate around $156 and below when possible. Previous ranges show a characteristic "top" to where the stock will head and wait for the next big thing. It's not much higher at $183 than the all time high this year of $178.70. Hence, why the growth is slow, but steady back up to where it was. MCD is a great value, with a great brand worldwide that won't go away anytime soon.
NYSE:MCDLong
by N3utra