HYPERBITCOINIZATION: dollar purchasing power down 94% since 1914Purchasing power ( PP -25.00% ) is a measure of strength of a currency. It represents a quantity of goods & services that can be bought by a unit of currency. Since 1914 the purchasing power of the US dollar -0.89% is down 96 %.
The calculation is simple. We take the consumer price index ( CPI 0.24% ) for the USA and divide every value by the value for our base year (1914), then multiply by 100 to get a percentage:
PP -25.00% = CPI_i / CPI_base * 100
The CPI 0.24% is itself a measure of economic strength and its rate of change forms the basis of inflation . From Wikipedia: "The CPI 0.24% is a statistical estimate constructed using the prices of a sample of representative items whose prices are collected periodically."
Since the introduction of a de facto system of free floating fiat currencies in the early 70s, the decline has been slow but persistent 3.66% . It looks very much like an asymptotic decay, where the value will go to zero over an infinite 2.39% amount of time. Inflation may effect the rate of decline, but it seems that the natural process in this case is decline.
Consumer
Slow, Steady Growth in 2018 w/ Tech + China (PT: $183)It looks and feels like MCD will be hovering/consolidating around the $160 mark until more news comes in to spurt growth back into the $170 range. No major recovery from February has really taken place, even with the last quarter beats. Death Cross?
As a company embracing more technology, initiatives have already been taken in the first half to help grow the second half. Operations initiatives will be updated as more upgrades happen and the China refranchising will also be concluded. I think it will be slow, but steady going the rest of the year for MCD, but it's a long term stock for a lot of people, so accumulate around $156 and below when possible.
Previous ranges show a characteristic "top" to where the stock will head and wait for the next big thing. It's not much higher at $183 than the all time high this year of $178.70. Hence, why the growth is slow, but steady back up to where it was. MCD is a great value, with a great brand worldwide that won't go away anytime soon.
Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) - Time to buy?Consumer Staples are breaking out of their highs, whilst the overall index driven by tech stocks is rallying on extreme momentum. Whilst the spread could widen further, the return to risk seems in favour of rotating into Consumer Staples, 30% behind in just 2 years. In 2007 to 2009 financial crisis, Consumer Staples fell only 30% against the broad market that fell 50% peak to trough.
ZAGGThe Current stock price is above both the 150 day and 200 day moving average.
The 200 day moving avg line is trending up (for at least one month) early in the year.
The Current stock price is trading above the 50 day moving average.
The current stock price is at least 30 percent above its 52 week low. (3.5x years low)
The current price is within 25% it's new high. (approximately with 10%)
The RSI: within the 30-70 range.
LONG VOXX FROM SMALL BASEAbout to go buy shares in VOXX due to the breakout from a small base with a pick-up in volume. This was on the radar previously due to a break from the much better base beforehand as marked. Strong sector also. Long-term target is $17 as highs back in 2013. All-time high is $72.
GBPAUD Long Entry Area - GBP-CPIThis entry area of 159.50-60 will be predicated on the GBP CPI driving price down to this level.
Once this level is hit I will look for a specific entry level and I will also post my price targets as well.
This is not a high probability trade..its ONLY valid if the CPI numbers drive the Cable lower.
We'll keep you posted.
XRT Retail Earnings POTENTIALRetail earnings are in full swing this upcoming week!
Here is a TA based version of my expectations for the week.
In previous quarters the strong USD and the slow down in Consumer Spending hit profits hard.
With retail sales up throughout the quarter and consumer confidence at 2016 high, all around beats are expected.
Driving retail market capitalization back to Q2 2015 level offers a short-term 8% return.
In the longer run, or collectively throughout the remainder of Q2, a 16% return is in the works.
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