MACRO VIEW: XLY IN FIRM MACRO UPTRENDConsumer Discretionary SPDR ETF is looking good on both short term and long term basis.
On long term basis - XLY trades in both 5 and 10 year uptrend, as the price stands firmly above 1st upper standard deviations from both 5 and 10 year means It has tested its 5-year trend during the august selloff and held it successfully.
On short term basis - XLY shows no trends in particular, as the price is firmly within the 1st standard deviations from 1-year and quarterly means. It is a positive development, since nothing on short term basis stands in the way of long term trends.
Consumer
Johnson & Johnson vs USDJohnson & Johnson has seen extreme price consolidation since last November. Since they are a highly diversified healthcare company, currency translations affect their bottom line quite substantially. With the recent contraction of the US Dollar, Johnson & Johnson has broken out of a prolonged trading range. If the dollar continues to contract against other foreign currencies, Johnson & Johnson will make better on their hedges and increase the bottom line substantially, thus increasing free cash flow and overall economic opportunity.
Earnings Season Shows US Consumers Make a Come BackUnbelievable. Earnings reports this week show U.S. consumer stocks are doing pretty awesome. We had beats this week from consumer sensitive/cyclical stocks like: Amazon, Coca-Cola, Dunkin Brands, Domino’s Pizza, and Dr Pepper Snapple Group. Restaurant stocks are also getting some nice earnings growth.
Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management said, “We are finally starting to see the U.S. consumer spend. Generally the reaction of spending goes restaurants, food, cars, and housing. As we see the progression move forward, that would be the validation of a strong consumer and the growth of the U.S. economy.” That's pretty awesome. So BK Asset Management is going to watch the consumption progression to gauge the health of the U.S. economy.
The chart of SPY looks like an Ascending Triangle pattern has formed. That's crazy that this pattern would form going into the worst 6 months of the year but so far the earnings season for consumer stocks are coming in pretty good and so here we are.
Source: www.guerillastocktrading.com