Consumer
XRT Retail Earnings POTENTIALRetail earnings are in full swing this upcoming week!
Here is a TA based version of my expectations for the week.
In previous quarters the strong USD and the slow down in Consumer Spending hit profits hard.
With retail sales up throughout the quarter and consumer confidence at 2016 high, all around beats are expected.
Driving retail market capitalization back to Q2 2015 level offers a short-term 8% return.
In the longer run, or collectively throughout the remainder of Q2, a 16% return is in the works.
above cloud consumer with volumestrong volume see why volume is important in our book on amazon-cci and percent r upper range-relative strength good-stop loss back in daily cloud-diversify-use limit orders
pennies to thousands strong candidate weak day consumercloud narrowing
above weekly cloud get our book on amazon importance of clouds
money flow strong
good group
relative strength strong
cci and percent r upper band
MACRO VIEW: XLP IN FIRM MACRO UPTRENDConsumer Staples SPDR ETF is looking good on both short term and long term basis.
On long term basis - XLP trades in both 5 and 10 year uptrend, as the price stands firmly above 1st upper standard deviations from both 5 and 10 year means It has tested its 5-year trend during the august selloff and held it successfully.
On short term basis - XLP shows no trends in particular, as the price is firmly within the 1st standard deviations from 1-year and quarterly means. It is a positive development, since nothing on short term basis stands in the way of long term trends.
MACRO VIEW: XLY IN FIRM MACRO UPTRENDConsumer Discretionary SPDR ETF is looking good on both short term and long term basis.
On long term basis - XLY trades in both 5 and 10 year uptrend, as the price stands firmly above 1st upper standard deviations from both 5 and 10 year means It has tested its 5-year trend during the august selloff and held it successfully.
On short term basis - XLY shows no trends in particular, as the price is firmly within the 1st standard deviations from 1-year and quarterly means. It is a positive development, since nothing on short term basis stands in the way of long term trends.
Johnson & Johnson vs USDJohnson & Johnson has seen extreme price consolidation since last November. Since they are a highly diversified healthcare company, currency translations affect their bottom line quite substantially. With the recent contraction of the US Dollar, Johnson & Johnson has broken out of a prolonged trading range. If the dollar continues to contract against other foreign currencies, Johnson & Johnson will make better on their hedges and increase the bottom line substantially, thus increasing free cash flow and overall economic opportunity.
Earnings Season Shows US Consumers Make a Come BackUnbelievable. Earnings reports this week show U.S. consumer stocks are doing pretty awesome. We had beats this week from consumer sensitive/cyclical stocks like: Amazon, Coca-Cola, Dunkin Brands, Domino’s Pizza, and Dr Pepper Snapple Group. Restaurant stocks are also getting some nice earnings growth.
Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management said, “We are finally starting to see the U.S. consumer spend. Generally the reaction of spending goes restaurants, food, cars, and housing. As we see the progression move forward, that would be the validation of a strong consumer and the growth of the U.S. economy.” That's pretty awesome. So BK Asset Management is going to watch the consumption progression to gauge the health of the U.S. economy.
The chart of SPY looks like an Ascending Triangle pattern has formed. That's crazy that this pattern would form going into the worst 6 months of the year but so far the earnings season for consumer stocks are coming in pretty good and so here we are.
Source: www.guerillastocktrading.com