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L/S Swedish Equities Pairs TradeConsumer Defensive / Consumer Cyclical 30/12/2019 Close Long: ESSITY_B Current Price SEK: 301.80 Short: WESC_AB Current Price SEK: 0.0046 ESSITY / WESC spread Entry Range: 65608.70 ESSITY / WESC spread Hard Stop: 59076.70 (10%) ESSITY / WESC spread Soft Target: 85374.00 (30%) BETA hedge For every SEK 1.00 Long of ESSITY_B SEK 9.00 Short of WESC_AB *Build you position in two stages enter with 50% of desired exposure. *+add too the position on a breakout or at the soft target. *Hedge your currency exposure, unless you have a view on SEK. *HIGH RISK trade. Essity: Consumer Defensive (Manufacture Tissues, Toilet paper & other hygiene products) Strong fundamentals, very defensive and predictable earnings with consistent global demand, outperformed all of its competitors in 2019. *Market Cap = 212B *EPS = 14.10 ESSITY_B Consensus Jan 2020 =F1 Jan 2021 =F2 F1 P/E: 20.10x F2 P/E: 17.60x F1 Earnings Growth: 22.38% F2 Earnings Growth: 6.70% F1 Sales Growth: 2.70% F2 Sales Growth: 3.00% F1 PEG: 0.89 F2 PEG: 2.62 Risk: Reflation of the global economy, and solid resolution of political tensions. And therefore a full risk on scenario and defensive stock underperformance. Wesc: Consumer Cyclical (Trades Apparel & related products, under it brand name WESC) Weak fundamentals, very cyclical and “polluting” as it’s fast low quality fashion. Loss making. In desperate need of a turn around, I feel the business will not attract new talent (As the brand is notoriously NOT cool for millennials and gen z) and isn’t worth turning around as a brand, also no analyst and very hard to find relevant financial information in for the company. *Market cap = 22M *EPS = -0.0150 Risk: Merger, acquisition or turnaround. Otherwis I’d be happy to keep this position on for the foreseeable future. *KEEP YOUR POSITION SIZE SMALL* This is a risky pairs trade as WESC could get bought out, or turned around and go to infinity, but I’m betting against that. LONG High quality Swedish Consumer Staple. SHORT Low quality Swedish Consumer Cyclical.
OMXSTO:ESSITY_B
by Impreza
Is TNYBF trading in a Ascending Triangle?We've had the highest volume on the U.S side this year recently, along with the highest short on TNYBF on Dec 24th with 100% of the trades short, keep in mind it's not uncommon to see over 50% of TNYBF short, TNY on the CSE usually trades much higher volume, which is the Canadian ticker symbol. Anyway, this recent move has put TNYBF over the MA50&200, and it also appears like we're trading in a Ascending Triangle. Key Takeaways The trendlines of a triangle need to run along at least two swing highs and two swing lows. Ascending triangles are considered a continuation pattern, as the price will typically breakout of the triangle in the price direction prevailing before the triangle. Although, this won't always occur. A breakout in any direction is noteworthy. A long trade is taken if the price breaks above the top of the pattern. A short trade is taken if the price breaks below the lower trendline. A stop loss is typically placed just outside the pattern on the opposite side from the breakout. A profit target is calculated by taking the height of the triangle, at its thickest point, and adding or subtracting that to/from the breakout point.
OTC:TNYBFLong
by ScotianBot
Is TNY trading in a Bull Flag or Symmetrical Triangle?Bullish flag formations are found in stocks with strong uptrends. They are called bull flags because the pattern resembles a flag on a pole. The pole is the result of a vertical rise in a stock and the flag results from a period of consolidation. The flag can be a horizontal rectangle, but is also often angled down away from the prevailing trend. Another variant is called a bullish pennant, in which the consolidation takes the form of a symmetrical triangle. The shape of the flag is not as important as the underlying psychology behind the pattern. Basically, despite a strong vertical rally, the stock refuses to drop appreciably, as bulls snap up any shares they can get. The breakout from a flag often results in a powerful move higher, measuring the length of the prior flag pole. It is important to note that these patterns work the same in reverse & are known as bear flags & bear pennants, but the bullish volume recently indicates that it's unlikely to result in a bearish outcome... Only time will tell, and when it comes to Tinley Beverages, "My favorite time frame for holding a stock is forever." Warren Buffett On a Macro level Tinley has held their share price impressively well comparable to "any cannabis related stock" over the past 4 years boasting roughly 523% gains... On a Micro level we're potentially seeing a trend change from bearish to bullish, indicators that support my narrative is the recent Triple Bottom pattern that's linked to this chart. Also, the increase in buy volume indicates that short sellers are either losing money in their positions to the downside, or they're running short on shares available to short, or they've simply reached their target buy in price... Keep in mind hopium is a schedule 1 narcotic & has killed many Moon Boys in the cannabis sector during 2019.....
CSE:TNYLong
by ScotianBot
Is COT trading in a giant Bull Flag?Maybe a descending triangle as well, but seeing the recent bullish upward since Goldman Sachs recommended a buy rating from neutral. It actually appears as though COT has formed a Triple Bottom, which also appears slightly as a Ascending Triangle. The triple bottom is similar to the double bottom chart pattern and may also look like ascending or descending triangles. When STZ entered the Cannabis space they used Goldman Sachs to broker the deal. Goldman Sachs went bullish on Cott a in July, and why? Well, we know Goldman Sachs is supportive of cannabis via the previous brokered deal with STZ & Canopy. They'd be privy to any Safe Banking & States Act regulations, so that may simply be the answer, front running Cott's entry into the cannabis space? Cott has sold off several assets over the past couple years & have some cash to spend, and seeing so many previous Cott employees in the Cannabis space leads me to believe they may make a surprise entrance into the sector..
CLong
by ScotianBot
Triple Bottom for TNY?It appears as though $TNY may have formed a triple bottom where I have the red fingers pointing right on the chart. In my previous post linked to this chart I spoke about the descending triangle & potentially testing .335c, clearly visible on this chart we can see .33c is about exactly where a new double bottom was created, and thus potentially creating the third bottom of a triple bottom. We will need to see continued bullish price action next week & break out of this pattern flush to the upside, maybe create a top at 44c & consolidate sideways before continuing, who knows, only time will tell..... The RSI appears to be breaking out of a Bull Flag, and on 5 year & 1 year time frame the RSI is fairly low with lots of room to move to the upside, "if we're looking at a longer term trend reversal." Key Takeaways A triple bottom is a visual pattern that shows the buyers (bulls) taking control of the price action from the sellers (bears). A triple bottom is generally seen as three roughly equal lows bouncing off support followed by the price action breaching resistance. The formation of triple bottom is seen as an opportunity to enter a bullish position.
CSE:TNYLong
by ScotianBot
TNY Update.Tinley appears to be trading in a Ascending Triangle creating a series of "micro" higher lows & higher highs. The 46c range would be ideal to hold because that's where we created our first "significant" higher high on a micro level that was representative of a potential trend change. On the RSI we can clearly see higher lows & higher highs forming a Ascending Triangle as well. Worth noting. We've seen a double top where I have the two red gavels that coincides with an increase in short positions during this exact time period, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them cover if they didn't already with the pending news of Canadian expansion with two unkown LP's, one Big & one Small, IMO only. Time will tell per usual.
CSE:TNYLong
by ScotianBot
TNY Update.200 Day MA is only 26% away at the time of posting. Tinley has broken out of a ascending triangle, look at the rsi as well, very telling of a possible trend reversal after creating lower highs for months consecutive. Now Tinley is creating higher highs & higher lows on a micro level consistently. If we do see a retracement of any sort, I'd like to see 46c hold, which is the top of the ascending triangle, and one of the recent lower highs of the continued downtrend is at that level. On a smaller time frame & chart attached to this one you can notice a bull flag pattern that broke to the upside as well.
CSE:TNYLong
by ScotianBot
TNY Update. Possible Bull Flag.Unless Tinley breaks above 47c in the next few trading sessions we're basically just looking at another lower high. There's clearly a possible bull flag pattern that may play out. The RSI was at an all time low on "all time frames" recently, which is reflective of the aggressive bounce we had in the share price. On the RSI I've made some notes that may indicate a trend reversal. On a five day chart I'll post attached to this chart you can notice the RSI bounce off the top of what was once a descending triangle, this may indicate the trend is changing due to old resistance becoming new support. Time will tell per usual.
CSE:TNYLong
by ScotianBot
TNY Update.Today's move is nice to see everyone, but we're still looking at a lower high on a macro level since Dec 2018. That may not seem macro to some investors, which is fine, but it's still important to note in regards to charting. All information helps, especially in hindsight when trying to learn new trading methods, I guess I'm speaking for myself. Anyway, a follow up news release may still be required to prevent the shorts from playing whack a mole. For a meaningful higher low I'd say the safest area is above the Dec low, and that's where we have a recent lower high as well. If we can get up to 47c in the next few trading sessions it would be a nice V shape recovery. Time will tell per usual.
CSE:TNYLong
by ScotianBot
IRBT Vanguard Purchase - iRobot @$44.14 on 10/23/19Got a Vanguard notification of a purchase this morning. I'd like to attempt to document, on the same day , all individual stock purchases for future reference and timing studies. Vanguard purchases are my Long-to-Ultra Long term holdings. Companies purchased reflect positive outlooks on - Valuation, Growth potential, Technicals, and Future trends. I want to make these public so that I keep myself honest by allowing everyone to view my winning trades and losing trades. Sometimes months go by where I won't purchase anything, I have my limit orders preset. I wait for price to come to me. Best, RH IRBT Daily View: Recent Purchases: TLRD: MO: CC: PETS:
NASDAQ:IRBTLong
by RHTrading
Is Cott entering the cannabis space? I know that when Canopy entered the Cannabis space they used Goldman Sachs to broker the deal. Goldman Sachs went bullish on Cott a few months ago, and why? Well, we know Goldman Sachs is supportive of cannabis via the previous brokered deal with Canopy, and they'd be privy to any Safe Banking & States Act regulations, so that may simply be the answer.... Cott has sold off several assets over the past couple years & have some cash to spend, and seeing so many previous Cott employees in the Cannabis space leads me to believe they may make a surprise entrance into the sector.. On a micro technical level it looks like Cott may have formed a double bottom, with the right bottom slightly lower & is trading in a bull flag. On another note, It could be also be a descending triangle, and a double top with the right top being slightly higher, only time will tell. The 200 Day MA isn't far away either, interesting.
BLong
by ScotianBot
1
TNY Chart.Just a bunch of lower highs since late April / May PP. Anytime we've tried to get over the 200 Day MA since April, we've been knocked back down like whack a mole. In order for Tinley to change this trend they're going to need some material news, very simple... Otherwise, it will be a slow bleed down into the single digits, IMO. Let's not forget that the entire cannabis sector has been bleeding for months on end, and surprisingly TNY has held up nicely in comparison to many other much larger companies... But we can only pat ourselves on the back for so long.... Time will tell per usual
CSE:TNYLong
by ScotianBot
TNY Updated Chart.It appears as though tny may be trading in a ascending triangle. It's clearly noticable on the rsi as well. The 30-45 day estimated time frame for Tinley's two canadian LP's is fast approaching. Sunday would be 30 days from the previous news release. A Friday or Monday news release would be likely & timely for some sort of announcement in regards to this topic. Anything else like LBF licensing early or a new product would be left field & unexpected at the moment. It's worth mentioning that Tinley will be utilizing the standard operating procedures, blueprints and other IP gained during the buildout of their own facility to help its prospective Canadian partners with their own bottling plant buildouts. In other words, the several years of design, engineering and construction work, enabled by learnings from the real-world sales and market experience that Tinley has gained as a Company through their Phase 1 and Phase 2 facilities, will be given to these two Canadian LP's under some sort of agreement beneficial to both parities. “With a first-class production and sales team in place, Tinley is well-positioned to help third-party CPG and lifestyle brand owners extend their offer into the growing cannabis beverage market, in the same manner as our team has done for over 100 such brands globally in the cola and wider beverage industry,” said Ted Zittell, director of the Company. Time will tell per usual.
CSE:TNYLong
by ScotianBot
TNY updare.So, since the last time I posted a chart on TNY we were trading in descending triangle that broke to the downside on a "short term time frame." I had mentioned that the pattern could also be a bull flag , but that was not the case. It is interesting however to see Tinley get back up to the 56c level where there seems to be historic support dating back to Aug 2018. I can speculate all I want about where the share price may be in the future, but only time will tell per usual.
CSE:TNYLong
by ScotianBot
Interesting divergence SPY/XLYI was messing around with my charts and noticed that SPY and XLY (Consumer Discretionary) are diverging. Looking back in time - with the exception of one littler divergence a couple years ago - I can't find anywhere else this has happened. Is this maybe a sign that the consumer is getting overly confident? When fear is turned off, things eventually get out of control. The other thing I noticed is that XLP (Consumer Staples) is gapping away from SPY and XLY to the upside. Guess when the last time XLP gapped away from SPY and XLY?? Yep, you guessed it! It was last year right before the market tanked. This would also (maybe) be a sign that consumers are getting overly confident.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Bankuur
Consumer goods in indonesiaFundamental: rising in monthly sallary in every province by almost 8%. Current inflation (y/y nov 3.1%),means rising sallary is higher than inflation. Weakening of usd against idr,may cause decrese in industry's import component. Historycaly,consumer spending always incrased on the christmax,new year,chinese new year and "idul fitri". One thing to be consider as a negative point of view is the slowdown in indonesia's economy as impact of 'predicted' on global economy slowdown and US and China 2019 economy slowdown.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by Adiengel