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British pound jumps, US PCE inflation meets expectationsThe British pound has posted sharp gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at .1.2669, up 0.81% on the day. There are no UK releases today, but in the US it’s a busy data calendar. US GDP (second estimate) showed a gain of 2.8%, unchanged from the initial estimate. The economy is expected to show growth of 2.6% in the third quarter, below second-quarter growth of 3% but still a respectable clip. The US economy has remained surprisingly resilient despite high interest rates, as the Federal Reserve tightened policy in order to contain inflation. The economy showed some cracks due to high rates but the economy has avoided a recession as the economy has been growing and the labor market has cooled but not collapsed. Consumer spending and confidence remain solid and this has helped propel economic growth. Consumer spending rose to 3.5% in the second quarter and consumer confidence increased in October. The US personal consumption expenditures price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, came in as expected. The PCE price index was unchanged in October at 0.2% m/m, in line with expectations. Annually, the PCE price index rose 2.3%, matching the market estimate but above the September gain of 2.1%. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, gained 0.3% m/m, the same as September and in line with the market estimate. Annually, the gain of 2.8% in October was up from the 2.7% gain in September and matched expectations. The markets have raised the odds of a 25-basis point cut at the Dec. 18 meeting, even though both the headline and core PCE inflation readings rose in October. The probability of a 25-bp cut currently stands at 70% up from 59% a day ago, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. GBP/USD has pushed above resistance at 1.2620 and is testing resistance at 1.2673. Next, there is resistance at 1.2729 1.2564 and 1.2511 are providing support
by OANDA
USD/JPY dips as Tokyo Core CPI risesThe Japanese yen is in positive territory on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 129.76, down 0.33%. Inflation indicators in Japan continue to head northwards. Tokyo Core CPI rose to 4.3% y/y in January, up from 3.9% in December and ahead of the consensus of 4.2%. This is the highest level in 42 years, but what is more worrying for the Bank of Japan is that the indicator has exceeded the central bank's target of 2% for the eighth straight month. The increase was broad-based, with food and fuel prices the main contributors to the increase. The Tokyo Core CPI reading follows other inflation indicators which have hit decades-high levels, adding pressure on the BoJ to exit its stimulus programme. The BoJ insists that inflation will peak at 3% in March. but this view seems over-optimistic, given the trend we're seeing from inflation data. BOJ Governor Kuroda has said he will maintain the Bank's ultra-loose policy until wages increase, which would indicate that inflation is driven by domestic demand rather than cost-push factors. Kuroda winds up his term in April, and the new Governor could decide to tighten policy, which would boost the yen. US GDP climbed 2.9% y/y in Q4, down from 3.2% in Q3 but still a respectable clip. Will the US be able to avoid a recession? The answer isn't clear, as the economic data shows a mixed picture. The employment market remains robust and overall growth has been positive. Manufacturing and Services PMIs continue to show that these sectors are contracting and housing has been especially weak, as lowered Q4 GDP by about 1.3%. Much will depend on the strength of consumer spending, which accounts for some 68% of GDP. Consumer spending rose 2.1% in Q4, down slightly from 2.3% in the third quarter. However, the December release is worrying, as consumer spending declined by 1.1%. If this trend continues, it seems likely that the US economy will tip into a recession. There is resistance at 130.89 and 131.69 129.46 and 128.40 are providing support
by OANDA
XAUUSD new double bottom and potential price movementThis is the same double bottom from yesterdays rushed idea. Thursday 10th and 11th saw a rise from 1706 to 1764. Consequently, due to strong bullish pressure i have changed the neckline from 1706 to 1800. This will be determined in the coming days, if price challenges 1800, with XAUUSD needing to fill in from fib line 0.236 to 0 (This is nearly 4500 pips which seems like a lot however over the 10th and 11th of November price increased by a similar amount). If this occurs it can be considered a good indication for lasting bullish movement to come. If the arrow does get filled in and there are other strong indicators of bullish market pressure (such as candle types or chart patterns) i would look out for support and resistance and place buy signals for a semi long D1 entry and exit. NEWS: Friday 11th November: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment came out at 3:00PM in the afternoon uk time. FROM UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN This measures the level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers. The survey is of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE FINANCIAL CONFIDENCE IS A LEADING INDICATOR OF CONSUMER SPENDING. CONSUMER SPENDING ACCOUNTS FOR A MAJORITY OF OVERALL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. USUALLY: The 'Actual' is greater than 'Forecast' which is good for currency (GREATER CONSUMER SPENDING THEN FORECASTED = MORE MONEY IN CIRCULATION + HIGHER BUSINESS CONFIDENCE = STRONGER USD HOWEVER, ON THE 11th NOVEMBER: ACTUAL LEVEL=54.7 FORECASTED LEVEL=59.5 THIS IS BAD FOR THE USD AS IT MEANS THERES LESS CONSUMER SPENDING WHICH WOULD DECREASE FINANCIAL CONFIDENCE WHICH WOULD WEAKEN THE USD AND THEREFORE HELP DRIVE UP GOLD PRICES. THIS COULD BE THE CLUE BULLS ARE LOOKING FOR TO KEEP PRICES UP. IMPORTANT NOTE: THE LAST TIME ACTUAL WAS LOWER THEN FORECASTED WAS SEPTEMBER 16TH AND WHEN THE NEWS CAME OUT AT 3, THE DOWNTREND STOPPED AND PRICE STARTED CONSOLIDATING BEFORE HAVING A SMALL BEARISH EPISODE AND EVENTUALLY HAVING BULLISH MOVEMENT OUT OF THE PRICE ZONE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ALTHOUGH THIS DATA HAS A SLIGHT EFFECT TO BOOST BEARISH PRESSURE, IT ISNT A STRONG EFFECT AND SO MAY NOT EFFECT PRICE AS MUCH.
FX:XAUUSD
by haadimilli
3
WMT:Consumer spending declining?Walmart Short Term - We look to Sell at 127.66 (stop at 133.76) This stock has recently been in the news headlines. They issued a profit warning ahead of earnings. Our outlook is bearish. A firmer opening is expected to challenge bearish resolve. Resistance is located at 128.00 and should cap gains to this area. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 112.83 and 108.00 Resistance: 136.00 / 145.80 / 160.00 Support: 112.80 / 105.00 / 85.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:WMTShort
by VantageMarkets
Canadian dollar higher on retail salesThe Canadian dollar hasn't made any spectacular daily gains since May 13th, when it shot up 1.1%. The currency has, however, made slow but steady progress against its US cousin. Earlier today, USD/CAD touched a low of 1.2731, its lowest level in three weeks. Canada's retail sales for March helped the Canadian dollar rally on Thursday. The headline figure was virtually unchanged, but core retail sales rose 1.5%. According to StatsCan, retail sales jumped 3.0% in Q1, its highest level since Q3 2020. Consumers continue to spend despite red-hot inflation, but if consumers decide to tighten the purse strings, the economy would likely take a hit and drag the Canadian dollar lower. The US dollar finds itself under pressure as risk appetite has rebounded. Investors were pleased with the FOMC minutes, as the Fed signalled that it planned to press ahead with 50-bps rate increases in June and July, which soothed concerns about a possible massive 75-bps hike. This gave the equity markets a boost and sent the greenback lower. The US economy may not be in a recession, but negative growth in the first quarter is certainly a concern. Second-estimate GDP came in at -1.5% QoQ, shy of the estimate of -1.3% and revised downwards from the initial estimate of -1.4%. Growth in Q1 was hampered by a surge in Omicron as well as the Ukraine war. One bright spot was solid consumer spending, which remains strong in the face of spiralling inflation. Consumer spending, as gauged by PCE expenditures, rose 3.1% in Q1, up from 2.7% prior. The markets are keeping a close eye on Personal Spending and Personal Income, which will be released later today. The economy is expected to rebound in Q2, but could be much lower than the rosy GDP numbers we saw after the US economy reopened. There is resistance at 1.2866 and 1.2955 USD/CAD is testing support at 1.2750. Below, there is support at 1.2661
by OANDA
1
Japanese yen falls to five-year highThe US dollar continues to pummel the Japanese yen. USD/JPY pushed above the 117 line earlier today for the first time since January 2017. USD/JPY is up 0.61% on the day and has recorded a massive gain of 1.76% this week. We continue to see sharp volatility in the currency markets and the Japanese yen has not been immune to the turbulence. Risk apprehension has been fluctuating, depending on developments in the Ukraine crisis. Like the US dollar, the yen is also considered a safe-haven currency, but with the US economy in much better shape than that of Japan, the US dollar has been the big winner from the recent turbulence we're seeing in the markets. As well, commodities are priced in US dollars, so the recent surge in commodity prices has boosted the US dollar. If the Ukraine crisis worsens and commodity prices continue to soar, it is entirely feasible that the USD/JPY will continue its upswing and break above the 120 line. In the US, headline CPI continued to accelerate, with a gain of 7.9% for February YoY. This matched the forecast and was up from 7.5% beforehand. With inflation running at 40-year high, there's little doubt that the Fed will raise rates at next week's meeting, most likely by 25 basis points. Japan ended the week with mixed numbers. Household Spending for January showed a sharp rebound of 6.9% YoY, up from -0.2% in December and above the consensus of 3.3%. However, the BSI Manufacturing Index for Q1 came in at -7.6, down from +7.2 in Q3 and way off the consensus estimate of +8.2. The BoJ is expected to maintain a dovish stance, despite rising inflation. On Friday, a senior BoJ official stated Japan's current and economic price conditions would make it inappropriate to respond with monetary tightening. USD/JPY continues to climb and break above resistance lines. Earlier in the day, the pair broke above resistance at 116.27 and 116.72. The next resistance is at 117.33. There is support at 115.56 and 115.11
by OANDA
2
Will Japan Household Spending rebound?The Japanese yen is drifting in the Monday session. In North American trade, USD/JPY is trading at 108.67, up 0.05%. The yen has posted four winning weeks out of the past five, as the US dollar continues to struggle. Still, the US/Japan rate differential continues to support USD/JPY, which remains in no man's land slightly below the 109 level. Japan will release Household Spending (GMT 23:30), and the consumer spending indicator is expected to rebound after two straight declines of 6.1% and 6.6%. The March release is projected to show a gain of 1.7%, which would mark a five-month gain. The market was gearing up for a blowout party from US nonfarm payrolls on Friday. In the end, however, the economy created just 266 thousand jobs, nowhere near the estimate of 990 thousand. There were expectations that NFP would break above the one-million mark, and some analysts even projected a reading above the two-million mark. The unemployment rate rose to 8.1%, up from 7.8%. Still, the news was not all bad, as wage growth rebounded with a strong gain of 0.7%, after a read of -0.1% beforehand. The US economy remains in good shape, and investors are unlikely to let a weak NFP report ruin optimism over the economy. The Fed has maintained a dovish stance, even with the economy posting strong numbers. The disappointing nonfarm payroll report appears to have justified the Fed's position, but investors will be keeping a close eye on this week's inflation numbers. A sharp rise in inflation could renew calls for the Fed to consider tapering. On the other hand, if the upcoming inflation numbers are weaker than expected, there will be less pressure on the Fed to change its accommodative policy. USD/JPY is facing resistance at 109.42. Above, there is resistance at 110.24. On the downside, there is support at 108.06 and 107.52
by OANDA