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Contagion

Bank Run to Gold Rush Gold rush up accordingly to each major news during the bank run crisis in March. Problem seems to subside for now. We will explore the possibility of a contagion effect to a wider bank run in this video. A story of having too much money problem • It is a bank – need to pay interest to depositors • During pandemic - invested 10yrs bonds yield average 1.79% • Before Feb 2022 Fed fund rate at 0.25% • Mar 2023 Fed fund rate at 5% How about the other banks, will they also have a similar problem in time to come? With uncertainty still lingering I am seeing opportunities in Gold, other precious metals and commodities. 3 types of gold for trading: • COMEX Gold 0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 • E-mini Gold 0.25 per troy ounce = $12.50 • Micro Gold 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by konhow
1
Market outlookThe S&P500 has done exactly as I feared. Thesis: The US is transitioning. The US dollar was the reserve currency of the world. We exported dollars and it either sat in banks or was imported back as investment (Bonds and stocks). When we locked up Russia's money we made EVERY country re-evaluate their relationship with us. A significant pivot is happening on the macro scale. The US's future lies in how we make use of the US coming back home. I expect production of goods and base commodities to begin to truly take over for years to come. I do NOT expect to invest significantly in the S&P500 again until 2028-2032. Things to keep in mind: 1. Valuations are still absurd. and either significant inflation or a drop in price is needed to bring them back to levels I would purchase at. 2. Relief rally should happen soon. Remember bear market rallies rip harder and faster than rallies in a bull markets. 3. The fed is squeezing the economy trying to reduce inflation. Until they pivot, expect lower lows. 4. There is a non-zero percent chance we enter a sustained bear market until 2028 ish. The first "real" one in 40+ years. 5. Commodities are looking great. They may drop for a bit longer but if you look back 50 years and adjust for inflation we are in the initial innings. For reference silver is 21.93$ and based on my calculations of inflation, its high was above 800.00$. 6. I am forecasting gold to go to 8000 over the next 6 years even if everything goes "well" for the west just due to the USD being revalued lower. If things get truly dicey I am expecting gold to reach 25,000 an ounce. 7. Remember the insidious nature of inflation. Even if we assume official levels of inflation are accurate and expect 5% for the next 5 years, cost of living will increase by at LEAST 29%. I expect levels closer to 80-300% increase cost of living based on my macro thesis. Large unknown factors: 1. Europe is looking terrifyingly weak. If Europe begins to destabilize I expect a rush into the dollar for a time. This will have many unpredictable problems. We may see inflation cool for a time due to that but it just makes the problem bigger down the line. 2. If the US gov suddenly finds a cause that allows them to bless off on 50-200T in money printing I expect that to drastically shift what happens. It may prop up the stock market or it may be the final proof to investors they lost control and create a global bank run. 3. Contagions: in 2008 we saw one of the largest expressions of a contagion event. The entire financial world locked up. There are 100X's more dangers of similar events now than there where in 2008 because we never fixed the underlying problem and allowed it grow exponentially. 4. Food and energy are becoming huge global risk factors. Don't underestimate the global effects of wide spread starvation and loss of energy augmentation to humanity. My call is just based on the worlds Covid response. This is not even factoring in Russia and Ukraine. Western countries will be buffered from both of these trends but we will still strongly feel this through second and third order effects. Don't underestimate the power of starvation and lack of energy to produce large scale contagious risks unlike we have ever experienced in anyone's memory.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Nexusfurian
Still Waiting on Southern Company*not investment advise. do your own research and invest at your own risk* $SO is presently in a sell-off. I saw this coming (see my previous idea on SO) but the movement's strength and momentum has surprised me. From what I've read, this doesn't appear to be related to anything significant beyond general market selling and a pervasive over-valuation fear that grips every sector. There have been hiccups with the nuclear project related to Vogtle Unit 3 (surprise...not) but reports I've read have misconstrued the premise. Southern Nuclear self-reported many of the cable non-compliances to the Nuclear Commission. This is a non-issue. Despite this, given the strength of the sell-off, I think we'll have a repeat of last year. Strong selling (probably profit-taking of those who bough early late 2020 - early 2021) going into winter with a noted downward trend until spring of 2022. Now would not be the time to buy up shares, in my opinion. If earnings are reported as strong this might alter my assertion, but the numbers would have to be impressive. Southern's fair value still hovers around $60.00 so any purchase at or below that mark would be acceptable. With less growth and higher risk-free rates (not likely over long term) one could fairly price the stock as low as $53.00 - $48.00. I don't think SO will reach those levels but, if it did, that would be a very strong buy, in my opinion. I'm looking for a downward move to around $58.00 - $60.00 at which point I'll start buying again. I'm short.
NYSE:SOShort
by forever_green