Last week , we examined Natural Gas from a seasonality perspective. This week, we aim to extend that discussion and explore other ways to implement a similar view. To quickly recap: From a seasonality standpoint, we identified short-term opportunities for a downward move in Natural Gas. Factors such as higher-than-normal storage levels, unseasonably warm weather,...
WisdomTree has long-standing expertise in commodities, and this asset class constitutes a core part of our business. We aim to debunk several myths that surround commodity investing1. Myth 1: Commodities are only a tactical instrument Some believe that commodities trade in a range and do not outperform over the long term. Furthermore, they think commodities...
Investing physically in most commodities is almost impossible due to operational constraints: they tend to be voluminous, expensive to store, move and insure, and can be very perishable. Most commodities investments are, therefore, made through futures contracts and therefore suffer, most of the time, from negative roll yield. However, this is not true for...
The financial markets are a complex ecosystem where a multitude of factors influence the movement of securities. One of the key aspects of understanding market dynamics is recognizing patterns and monitoring key levels that can indicate possible future trends. In this article, I will discuss the leading diagonal pattern, its importance in technical analysis, and...
Still a contango market. Growth up...vol down = long SPY etc. You really need a news event to kick off a reversal spike otherwise roll premium is a killer.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;) That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users. Kindly, Phil
Capture of Bitmex March 2020 Futures data for future reference. Also, just released a new indicator that captures Contango in terms of percentage. Added both indicators for analysis of futures curve in $ value or % value
While studying XBT Contango and Backwardation I noticed a repeatable pattern that XBT was going into backwardation every month for the last 5 months around the same time. I don't have an answer for this, but my assumption is it has to do with commercial interests and how they are driving the XBT Futures market. The strategy does not always catch the top/bottom...
Could be another downtrend retest, could be a breakout. Waiting for confirmation. Locked in gains from earlier move (See attached chart).
G'Day mate, How are we all today, it is a nice fresh winters day in North Queensland Australia this morning, wonderful weather for sitting with the feet up doing some TA analysis on our favourite cryptocurrency Bitcoin. After closing the week yesterday in great stead for the bulls, we closed the first day just a bullish. We are though sitting firmly underneath a...
With crude inventories seemingly increasing week on week since the start of 2017, crude oil price has been trading in a range of $50-55 per barrel. From a technical perspective, the market has rejected price levels from 53s to 55s on 8 different occasions. My view is to stay short on CL while resistance at 55 still holds, key support areas will be 50s to 51s....
Use this chart to see whether the Front month VIX contract is trading at a standard discount (contango) or premium (backwardation) to the second-month contract.
This chart shows how much the backwardation - when the front month trades at a premium to the second month - impacts the price of VXX which is constantly exposed to the roll-down between the two months.
See chart. Bears really need to move things down on the indexes or contango will return to rolling volatility plays. See notes on chart. * note: looks like TradingView, in its wisdom, is now resizing indicators from how publishers intended them to be zoomed. Will follow up with another graphic later.