Contractingtriangle
BTCUSD:Quick Wave (E) UpdateAs of my last post, numerous signs pointed to Wave (E) being complete. With this morning's move down, it re-opens the idea that Wave (E) is not complete (although it still could).
If Wave (E) is not complete then we have a good target for when it may complete.
The price target would be $630.09 which is the 61.8% fib ratio of Wave (C). Typically Wave (E) will be 61.8% the length of Wave (C) which takes us to that 630.09 target.
The time target is July 27th at around 8AM EST (noon GMT). This time is exactly the same time length of Wave (D). Fib ratio of 1.0 (60 bars on the 4 hour chart). Likewise, this is exactly the fib ratio of 2.0 of Wave (C) which was 30 bars on the 4 hour chart.
If Wave (E) is not complete, which is what I'm leaning towards then hitting $630.09 on July 27th at noon GMT makes a perfect target where we can place a buy order followed by a stop loss at $609.78 which is the bottom of Wave (C). If the low of Wave (C) is broken then that would be bearish and we would need to re-evaluate our waves.
BTCUSD: Contracting Triangle ABCDE Complete. Wave 4 As Well?Several signs are pointing to the ABCDE contracting triangle being complete:
Looking at the daily oscillator, you can see that each wave in the ABCDE corresponds to prior to the daily oscillator's fast (gray) line passing the slow (purple) line. The daily oscillator's fast line just passed the slow line giving us confirmation that Wave (E) should be complete.
The fibonacci time of the (E) wave is 1 (identical) to the (B) wave time.
Price has bounced off the top of the Ichimoku Cloud's resistance which is a bullish sign.
Confidence in the ABCDE contracting triangle now being complete is extremely high due to the above reasons.
The ultimate question is if wave (4) is now complete. If wave (4) is complete then wave (5) has begun which should take us up above the wave (3) high of $789.78. The first confirmation of wave (5) having begun will be price exceeding the wave (D) high of $683.20. If wave (4) is not complete then the end of the contracting triangle is wave (W) and we should see a three wave up (X) followed by another move down to complete wave (4). I would say there is a 60% chance that wave (4) is complete and a 40% chance that we experience an extended wave (4) WXY pattern.
Either way, you should be long at this time and if we see a three wave pattern up with a bearish oscillator reversal then we'll take profits before the move down.
BTCUSD: Contracting Triangle 4th Wave Ending on July 15-18thWe are currently in a corrective 4th wave of a bullish five wave pattern up that should result in price reaching above the top of the 3rd wave (789.78)
The fourth wave appears to be a five wave contracting triangle which will conclude on July 15-18th at which point the fifth wave up should commence.
Charting the 4 hour contracting triangle (thin green line) would expect the the triangle to converge on July 15th; however, several other factors are pointing more towards a July 18th convergence:
Timing of the ABCDE corrective waves would put the end closer to the 18th.
The fibonacci time ratio of 1.0 of the 3rd wave is on the 18th.
July 18th would make a perfect opportunity for the (E) wave to bump off the Ichimoku cloud.
Note: Keep in mind that it is common for an ABCDE pattern's E-wave to false breakout therefore it would not be a surprise if the E wave broke below the triangle before starting the wave (5) higher.
Contracting triangle . a chance to get involved long Contracting triangle . a chance to get involved long
EURUSD Long: A second Entry at Triangle CompletionEURUSD is nearing the completion of wave-(e) of a possible contracting triangle that could mark the end of wave-(2) before the three-of-C breakout. Entry at AB=CD inside of wave-(e) is confluent with the completion of a bullish cypher and may act as a catalyst for the bullish impulse. Long term target is placed at A=C. It is possible that another rebound off of the top of the triangle could occur, but we would avoid our SL as price would remain inside of the contracting triangle and the breakout would likely occur soon after.
BTCUSD - Outlook for 2016 -17 with 4 possibilitiesNOTE: Please keep in mind that just because I have drawn particular line or suggested a target does not mean I will cause the price to follow that path. I say this because many appear to have religious like zeal for BTCUSD to move forever upwards without any retracement where suggesting anything else is a gross sin.
Also I am ignoring all the positive and negative new developments and accept that I don't really know nor understand any of this.
Analysis -
Due to limited availability of price history longer term EW counts are near impossible. Therefore, it is possible as I have explained in previous charts publication we could assume Nov 2013 top as lager wave . If this is correct then we could have:
1. Jan 2015 low as possible wave and that we have started a possible expanding ending diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3 construction which could see retest of 2013 high or make marginal new high to complete the larger cycle of 5 waves (please see chart below for details).
2. as per No1. but that we are forming a contracting triangle since Nov 2013 high as wave as shown in the chart which means we could continue to chop about in tighter range till we complete this before breaking to upside to retest the Nov 2013 high or make marginal new high.
OR Possibly that we have November 2013 High as major top of 5 wave cycle
3. Then what we are seeing since is retracement of the entire cycle. Under this scenario we have Nov 2013 high to Jan 2015 low as 1st zigzag. Since when we have made a corrective zigzag to the upside with spike high in Nov 2015. If this proves to be correct then we could see another larger zigzag to the downside as illustrated on that chart. Based on AB-CD patter where we consider percentage drop from Nov 2013 high to Jan 2015 low and apply this from Nov 2015 spike high we get possible downside target of in the proximity of 65 which incidentally is also an area of wave 4 of one degree lower cycle often the area for retracement based on EW principle.
4. As per 3 above but with Nov 2015 spike high as being 1st part of the zigzag retracement to the upside where we could drop to 250 area and make another zigzag with upside target around 650 area as shown in the P&F chart below. Once the upside retracement is complete we could then drop in second zigzag at least to Jan 2015 low or make new low towards 65 zone.
It is interesting that Nov 2013, 2014 proved to be spike highs of the cycle. Could Nov 2015 also be the spike high of the cycle and that we now continue lower as per 3 above? Time will tell. Once we have some clarity, I will republish chart accordingly.
Conclusion: Due to the length of time for correction and lack of bullish counts to the upside, I am leaning on scenarios 3 or 4.
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
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Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV
danv-charting.com
