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Contraction

USDJPY H1 Triangle Continuation TradeLooking for the USDJPY to trade higher, but waiting for a breakout of the recent APAC session. Price action is forming a triangle that is encouraging based on other higher time frame continuation patterns. Depending on which time frame analysis you generate a trading idea, I am a firm believer that you should manage the trade in the same time frame. Though if there is a chance of a higher time frame target being reached, after de-risking on the lower time frame, you could leave a runner.
Long
by Macrobriefing
1
A Clear Signal of Economic ContractionUnemployment vs. Central Bank Tightening We know there's a shifting of the tides. With unprecedented Monetary Policy to rescue the economy due to never before seen economic maladies. Dotcom, Housing Market Collapse, and now the C-19 Pandemic. We saw the Fed's policies fail during the Great Depression, could we continue to trust this policy to course correct an inherently broken system? The simplest view of this is as an indicator of economic contraction preceding major Recessions. Now, combine this with yield curve inversions of both the 10 and 2-year yields, now, with a drastic move in the 3-month vs 10-year yield and we should be wary.
ECONOMICS:USUR
by TooGuru
1
Ugly Markets - Embrace the TrendsThe trend is always our best friend in markets across all asset classes. While many investors and traders waste their time interpreting the new cycle and other factors, the path of least resistance of market prices is a real-time indicator of the current sentiment. Stocks and bonds fall in Q2 Four of six commodity sectors post losses Rising interest rates and a strong dollar Economic contraction- Copper tells a story Go with the flow Market prices rise when buyers are more aggressive than sellers and fall when sellers dominate buyers. The current price of any asset is always the correct price because it is the level where buyers and sellers agree on value in a transparent environment, the marketplace. The results for Q2 were ugly in most markets. Stocks and bonds fell, the dollar index rose, and four of six commodity sectors posted losses. The best performing sectors reflect the supply-side issues created by the war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and Russian retaliation. Uncertainty in markets creates price variance, and markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscapes. As we move into the second half of 2022, uncertainty is at the highest level in years. Meanwhile, market liquidity tends to decline during the summer vacation months. Lower participation only exacerbates price variance as bids can disappear during selloffs and offers often evaporate during rallies. It is a time for caution in markets across all asset classes, but the trends on a simple price chart tell us all we need to know about the path of least resistance of prices. Stocks and bonds fall in Q2 The stock market was ugly in Q2: The DJIA fell 11.25% The S&P 500 declined 16.45% The tech-heavy NASDAQ dropped 22.45% Over the first half of 2022: The DJIA was down 15.31% The S&P 500 fell 20.58% The NASDAQ plunged 29.51% As the Fed began increasing the Fed Funds Rate and reducing its swollen balance sheet, the US 30-Year Treasury bond futures fell 8.19% in Q2 and were 13.75% lower over the first half of this year as of June 30. The long bond fell below its technical support level at the October 2018 136-16 low and reached 132-09 in June before bouncing. Four of six commodity sectors post losses While the energy and animal protein sectors posted gains in Q2, base and precious metals, grains, and soft commodities moved to the downside. The quarterly results by sector were: Energy- +6.77% Animal proteins- +3.31% Gains- -3.46% Soft commodities- -4.12% Precious metals- -12.91% Base metals- -27.24% Over the first half of 2022, four of six sectors were higher than at the end of 2021: Energy- +43.86% Grains- +14.65% Animal proteins- +10.96% Soft commodities- +1.46% Precious metals - -5.43% Base metals- -13.07% The results reflect the economic and political landscapes. Energy and food prices rose as the war in Ukraine threatens the global supply chains. Metal prices declined because central bank policies and economic conditions led to rising rates and a strong US dollar. Rising interest rates and a strong dollar The US Federal Reserve blamed rising prices and inflation on “transitory” pandemic-related factors throughout most of 2021. The central bank waited far too long to address inflation and is now playing catch-up when the war in Ukraine and geopolitical tensions impact the global economy’s supply side. Central bank monetary policy can affect the demand-side, but they have few tools to manage supply-side shocks. The rise in energy and food and the decline in metal prices tell us that central banks are struggling to address the current economic landscape. The US 30-Year Treasury bond futures chart shows the pattern of lower highs and lower lows. While the long bond bounced from the June low, the bearish trend remains intact in early July. The US dollar index, which measures the US currency against other world reserve foreign exchange instruments, rose 6.21% in Q2 and was 9.28% higher over the first half of 2022. The dollar index settled at the 104.464 level on June 30 and rose to a new two-decade high of 107.615 on July 8. Since the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency and the pricing benchmark for most commodities, a strong dollar caused raw materials to rise in other currencies, putting downward pressure on dollar-based prices. Economic contraction- Copper tells a story The US remains the world’s leading economy. In Q1, US GDP fell, and it likely declined in Q2. The textbook definition of a recession is two consecutive quarterly GDP declines. Copper is a base metal that trades on the London Metals Exchange and the CME’s COMEX division. Copper has a long history of diagnosing the economic climate, earning it the nickname Doctor Copper. In Q1, COMEX and LME copper prices rose by around 6.5%. In Q2, they plunged, with the COMEX futures falling 21.82% and the LME forwards dropping 20.41%. COMEX and LME copper prices were down over 15% over the first half of 2022. The chart of COMEX copper futures shows the move to an all-time $5.01 per pound high in March 2022 and a decline to a low below $3.40 in early July. The descent below technical support at the August 2021 $3.98 low and nearly 30% drop as of July 8 are signs that recession is not on the horizon; it has already gripped the economy. Go with the flow Inflation remains at a four-decade high, and while raw material prices have declined, the economic condition is far higher than the current Fed Funds rate. The central bank has pledged to fight inflation with monetary policy tools. Higher interest rates could put more downward pressure on raw material prices and the stock market as the economy contracts. Time will tell if the Fed continues its hawkish path or reacts to current market conditions. Waiting far too long to address inflation in 2021 suggests the central bank will likely remain hawkish regardless of market conditions in 2022. It is impossible to pick tops or bottoms in any market as prices often rise or fall far beyond where logic, reason, and rational analysis dictate. A market participant’s most effective tool is to follow the trends until they bend. The path of least resistance of asset prices can be the most significant factor for future performance. In these troubled times, where uncertainty is at the highest level in years, don’t fight the trends and go with the flow. In early Q2, it remains bearish in many markets across all asset classes. Stocks, bonds, commodities, cryptos, and other asset classes are making lower highs and lower lows, while the dollar index is moving in the opposite direction. Markets are ugly, but nothing lasts forever. Trend following can be the best route for capturing the most significant moves. You will never buy the lows or sell the highs when following trends, as they will cause short positions at bottoms and long positions at market tops. However, trend-following allows for extracting a substantial percentage from a significant price move. Embrace those trends until they change. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CBOT:ZB1!Education
by Andy_Hecht
Bitcoin in 1 Minute - Day 21Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. Quick Brief: BTC is still stuck inside the red range and we are expecting a couple of days more inside it until we eventually break the range upward or downward. Meanwhile, we will be trading the range, and we can clearly see that the range is getting contracted forming a symmetrical triangle which usually happens before an aggressive breakout happens. But of course, a breakout of the symmetrical triangle would be an early alert and might result in a fakeout, the real breakout would be above or below the red horizontal range. 21 out of 500 days done. I truly appreciate your continuous support everyone! Let me know if you like the series, and if you would like me to change or add anything. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good Luck!. All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TheSignalyst
20
TLT bottoms in weekly hammer & divergence;but 108 still possibleTLT may have already bottomed out & the US10Y topped out with weekly hammer candles. TLT may find equilibrium at 132, my inflation pivot zone while US10Y may stabilize at 3.6% inflection point retesting its upchannel. TLT is now completing its M-pattern & has just entered my bullish BUY ZONE at 114 to 120. DCA Dollar cost averaging up from this point presents a very good risk-to-reward ratio. MORE DOWNSIDE? TLT may still go down to retest 108 where it bottomed multiple times in the past. Inflation expectations are slowing & the economy is starting to contract with oil & commodities turning down last week with investors pricing in a coming recession. Not trading advice.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by xtremerider8
2
Could TerraLuna restore TerraUSD PEG with $Hi folks, The #Terra protocol is doing well and needs no further bailouts 1-2-3 or whatever planned by Do Kwon. Now we have to let the market regulate itself naturally. Indeed, the spectacular crash of the past week was painful for everyone. Nevertheless, I think it is part of algorithmic phases of the Terra protocol itself. The protocol grows by successive phases of expansion and contraction. We have simply witnessed a phase of brutal contraction. This phase could have been amplified by an hypothetical attack but no one knows right now. Now, we have to wait for the market to do its job of natural regulator. Namely, slowly raise the #TerraLuna $LUNA to the price of $0.0017 per unit. At that time, the #TerraUSD $UST will naturally PEG with the US dollar. It’s only a matter of weeks. In fact, the regulator is already playing its role. Once the market has played its role of natural regulator and therefore the TerraUSD UST will again be worth 1 US dollar thanks to its symmetry with the LUNA supply, we can begin the expansion phase of the Terra protocol. During this expansion phase, we will see the TerraUSD UST supply increase and the #LUNA supply decrease. Once the PEG is reached, the decrease/increase of LUNA/UST will begin at approximately 612 LUNA for 1 UST until reaching in a more or less distant future the value of 1:1 or even more depending on the pace of adoption. So, let the market regulate itself and digest this contraction naturally instead of trying to manipulate it with more or less hazy hypothetical rescue plans. This is the price to pay for a decentralized currency. Moreover, we are not safe in a distant future from a new contraction of the protocol which will resorb itself to leave after a few days or weeks a new phase of expansion. Therefore, this contraction could be beneficial for all #cryptocurrency markets since it will bring a significant amount of fresh UST to the market when people will redeem their LUNA for UST once the PEG restore. And we know that cryptocurrency markets are in desperate need of fresh liquidities. So, yes, I'm long. And the impressive volume of Terra Luna exchanged speaks by itself. Have a nice day
LLong
by HenriqueV
8
US 10Y Yield Nearing 3%I believe that watching the US10Y is a great way to gauge what's happening in the equity markets. As we've been witnessing, stock valuations are being compressed and investors are feeling the pain. I've been watching this chart for a while, and you can see that the 10-year Treasury yield is nearly at 3% and is at 4-year highs. This is something to definitely keep an eye on as we continue to see a hawkish fed. We could see a change in dynamic within the secular trend of the market if this scenario continues in this trajectory.
TVC:US10Y
by ZenitCrypto
[Netflix] When will the crash end?#Netflix #NFLX #NASDAQ #Daily - Here’s NFLX Daily chart. It recently has shown a huge drop about 73% from the historical high at $700. - During the fall, it made a consolidation zone (HVP: High Volume Peak) around $330~$400 surrounded by big gaps. - Currently NFLX reached 0.705 retracement level of the impulsive wave which also happens to be the bottom of the blue falling channel. - Also, there are some of major HVPs that were formed at 2017 at current price level and thus I believe this area is a PRZ(Potential Reversal Zone), expecting some technical price actions. - If it falls a bit more, some attractive buy zones are $153~$168 and $82~$97 which are confluent zones of trendlines, Fibonacci retracement levels, stop hunting level of an impulsive wave, and POC (Point of Control) levels of major contractions. - Some resistances that I am considering are $288~$303, $373~$388, and $443~$458. If you are looking for more conservative spot, I would recommend you to wait until it breaks the blue falling channel above and until then, I would maintain my bearish perspective.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by Tommy_Trader
1
Will Ascending Triangle fail soon?#EURUSD #FX #4H #Tommy - Here’s EURUSD 4hr chart and I have made an assumption that the bearish wave starting from around 1.23470 is an impulsive wave cycle in Elliott wave perspective. - It’s currently testing bottom of the orange ascending triangle with top located around 1.11240 and this very wave structure also can be expressed with an orange upward parallel channel. - At the same time, purple short-term downward trendline keeps showing strong rejections. I will be bearish if bottom of the ascending triangle breaks below first. - On the other hand, I will be bullish if purple trendline breaks above and even more bullish when it successfully breaks the top of the ascending triangle above. - If EURUSD successfully breaks ascending triangle above, a considerable resistance area to enter short position is at 1.13100~1.13600. - This resistance is a confluent zone of blue trendline, top of black channel, top of the orange channel, 0.786 retracement level, HVP pivot level, and inner trendline and is valid only until April 9th. - If I were to design a short trading setup, it would be as below. Short (Valid until 04/09) EP: 1.13100 SL: 1.13970 (-870 PIPS) TP1: 1.11790 (+1310 PIPS) -> RR: 1.51 TP2: 1.10260 (+2840 PIPS) -> RR: 3.26
by Tommy_Trader
Pure Technicals Outlook for SPX We can expect a minor contraction based on MACD, Guth 3x confirm, and D+ divergence cloud. Key word is minor! Our new point of resistance on the 45min chart is 4416.10 which would only be a 55 point drop ( 1.24% ) This drop could happen at the open, or intra day. This is not processional advice but I ask you fellow experienced traders to give me your thoughts on this and possibly a collab. I am using this as an indicator for if I am going long next week or short. What are your thoughts on the week ahead, it is always good to trade with the market trend.
SP:SPX
by Myantman101
$IDEXPrice have been moving in a slightly bearish channel since March, here it formed an ABCD pattern and broke out. Price then tested a bearish trendline and fell back into the channel again. On the weekly, price have been moving in a massive flag formation with a minimum target at 4.77 dollars if it breaks out bullish. This flag formation has just been broken to the upside and could be setting up for an uptrend to the moon. From July 14 to July 21 price contracted and lacked liquidity, afterwards it started expanding and tested support from lower breakout line at 2.07 dollars. This push down most likely came from smart money trying to get the stock at the lowest price, without breaking out the price bearish. Price is still in the expansion phase but with strength from the flag formation it could be testing the upper breakout line at 2.77 dollars. If the stock can break this line, it will go into the breakout phase and we could potentially see some big moves to the upside.
ILong
by Hami_Invest
USD/CHF could get less interesting than EUR/CHFHey tradomaniacs, I`m currently waiting for the FED to give the market more fundamental impulses. Looking at USD/CHF we can see that price is not really trendy, instead volatile within a cotnraction and weekly support-range. As mentioned before in my NZD/USD analysis, we need to see how the market reacts to a potential tapering. In case of a hawkish turn, we might see more USD-Strenght. In case of a shocked stock-market, we might see a cashflow into safe heaven such as CHF and JPY, which could cause choppy price-action as we get to see CHF and USD strenght. In this case it would be way more interesting to SHORT EUR/CHF. If FED dissapoints and we get more USD weakness, we might see more risk-on and so a falling USD/CHF. Let`s see! :-) LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me
by Trading2ez
1
Back to normal! Hurray!130 years ago the USA became the world largest economy, and roughly 60 years ago they were the most far ahead. Today their lead is the smallest it has been in generations. Also, the share of the world GDP that the west makes keeps getting smaller. On top of that the US is pulling out of Afghanistan and reducing their world presence if I got that correctly, and France is pulling out of Mali and losing influence in Africa. Centrafrique recently made a movie praising Russia and apparently mocking France called "tourists" and fired their prime minister that was friends with France which as a result of Russia presence is pulling away. The relevance of the "big 4" has faded so much that each time I talk about France someone asks me "why?". No one ever asked me why I speak of China. Here's your proof. France is even expected to not be in the top 10 economies by 2050. China share of world GDP peaked in the early 1800s with 33%, and India centuries earlier. France+UK+Germany share of world GDP peaked in 1900 with close to 25% (probably 30-35% nominal). And the USA share of world GDP peaked in 1950 with a little above 25% (nearly 40% in nominal). The peak of the middle east share of world GDP probably peaked 3000 years ago, and the persian empire is still to this day the largest ever in % of world population, nearly half of the entire planet lived in it. I just thought that was interesting, and shows nothing lasts forever. The "big 4" populations are getting older, with boomers getting close to retirement and a third of the cohort 5 to 15 years away from the life expectancy number. They also reached their working age population peaks: - USA: in 2019, sucking in millions of migrants to make up for bad demographics, - Germany: in 2019, same thing as the USA, "migrants welcome", they try so hard to attract them at any cost, - France: in 2018, it's more than a covid slump here - The UK: No peak, people still breed there, weird place If the US and Germany have not yet peaked, and the drop (500 thousand in Germany and 2 million in the USA) was not from the very top, the top is not far. It is not possible to entirely replace a population, and if they did that it would be entirely different countries. At some point there are just too many boomers to replace. For reference, Greece had a double top between 2004 and 2010, and Russia it's hard to say but it dropped violently in 1990. And let me tell you, the 90s were not happy days in the east 🙃 Not happy days at all. The entire world labor force peaked in 2019. Between 2019 and 2020 the labor force of Mexico collapsed from 58 million to only 54, much of it was probably sucked by the USA. Trust me, this is a gigantic drop, enough for a big fat depression. Not sure if their GDP has jumped out of the window yet. The US have a labor force of 165 million. And Mexico if you translate 5 years forward really have 50 million at best. Even if the US sucked in half of all Mexico they'd fail to replace their boomers. Birth control and abortions worked really well. As you can see the economy of Spain which is already bad will collapse. If everything goes well it will contract 50%! Of course, everything will not go well and bad things will compound! Similarly, using the Euromomo bulletin and population numbers (there are twice as many 70-75 year old boomers today than 70-75 year olds 5 years ago!), it is trivial to figure out the 10% covid spike in max weekly death will be a TENTH of what is too come... IF NOTHING GOES WRONG. BEST CASE SCENARIO. And as Russia has shown, things go wrong. So I think they spike won't reach only 180k but way more. Negatives will compound as ALWAYS. EVERY SINGLE TIME. I'm not saying a miracle is impossible, but you know it. Twice as less doctors, twice as many seniors to take care of. Taxes are already enormous. The west spends about 50% of the GDP. You literally can not keep the same standard of living even if you taxed all workers 100% and they magically were able to live with $0. Ah, and let's not forget "IQ points have declined by 7 points a generation since 1970". And let's not forget old people vote. Ye, lockdowns, mass panic, and more. It will not end. You can vaccinate against a coronavirus variant, you can not vaccinate against death. You stop 1 virus, 10 other infectious disease will come, and heart disease, and cancer, and more. Ah, and it is well known that economic contraction leads to a decline in life expectancy. And don't get me started with depressions and alcoholism. Russia men over 50 are all MIA. Women have more endurance, they are more resistant (not just to disease). Even with physical strength, men's is more explosive, short term. Men are not good at sucking it up and being humble. LOL I'd rather be dead than not be a winner. Better luck next time. If I wasn't overconfident (I see myself as an all powerful Poseidon) I don't think I'd see life as worth living. I'd just go next. But wait there is more. I will avoid politics, so I'll skip the best part. But let me just mention that Vladimir Putin explained that empires all had the same problem. They ignored problems. They think they are so powerful they can crush problems. Soviet Union did it, Romans did it, Persians did it. And so on. Putin only mentions the USSR, but it always works the same way. Empire make little mistakes, and find quick fixes, "bully these opponents", "give necklaces to these", "print some money for those", and so on. But problems accumulate, and there comes a time when they cannot be dealt with. "The US, with great determination, is following straight in the Soviet Union footsteps". The USD rallied after a FED announcement, probably a really short term rally, funny to think of the suckers that got scammed here. I wonder if Japanese investors are not pulling out from the US stock market. Might be the case. I think now is the time Gold will shine. This is it. The poor suckers selling are the same poor suckers that sold in 2008: They will buy only if it gets to 3000. What was the elected demagogue mastermind that sold gold reserves very recently? Last bull market had the brown bottom, this one has the whatever his name was bottom. Let the cowards wait for 3000, and the braindead incompetent elected demagogues with a stupid smiley look on their faces sell to me. I'll take all that risk, and I'll charge a huge premium for it. If the price keeps going up like 2008 I will buy on every single pullback.
TVC:GOLDLong
by MrRenev
6