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Contrarian

Third Time is a Charm: Chinese New Year: Yatsen Retail$YSG has been down only for its existence (i got fleeced badly in the first few post IPO months) fundamentals vs share price are converging toward a point of must-buy China and Chinese ADRs are always known to be massive risk - because many Chinese frauds are in the history book IF this turns out not to be a fraud, Rather it turns out to be the NIO Motors of Retail MakeUp and lifestyle branding THEN this becomes an easy 4 bagger and potentially a 20 bagger in the next few years.
NYSE:YSGLong
by noam_chom
Nobody saw that comingIn the coming months, I expect the following catalysts 1. Oil coming down, already there are discussions about removing Russia from OPEC 2. 10 Yr coming down, currently forming an H&S 3. FED adopt a more conservative strategy for interest rates going into 2023 4. Massive short squeeze on tech, High short interest rate there! 5. Rotation from oil to tech 45% are comparing this to .com and the other 45% to 08. Guess what the market likes to do... This is not investment advice, do your own research!!! Look First / Then Leap
TVC:IXICLong
by Philoslother
6
End of Super Cycles for Bitcoin & S&P 500My guess on how the 2 supercycles of bitcoin and S&P 500 will likely end. Masses attention on the stock market and cryptos are fading BUT there is still money to be burned and I would expect a victorious new ATH for both the stock market and the crypto to take place somewhere next year! 1. The whole internet is so aware of shorting the market that is "entering recession" due to rise in interest rates and inflation pressures. While at the same time Robinhood gave access to all its members to short. 2. There is still money sitting on the sidelines waiting for a positive turn ( a new dopamine cycle) so to be invested in the market and crypto ( the final burn/trap). The self-fulling prophecy of Bitcoin to 100k has to come "true" prob not 100 but close to 90k so everybody will be joining the last part of the cycle in a super euphoric state. More money traped for decades to come. Aside from crypto a lot of retail is traped on many SPACS/IPOs, if at any given moment there is a relief rally they will put more in order to break even their losses. 3. Covid is still a thing but is slowly fading away... no way in my perspective to allow a market crash while we are returning to "normal", all that money being printed in case of a market crash will not be "burned/spent", we did not even have a proper X-mas yet :) 4. Our heroes Musk+Bezos+Dr Burry warned us of a market crash ( check my previous post about it) 5. Do you think Fed will take the blame for the market crash? All the above statements are out of my head. This is a more philosophical approach rather than a concrete fundamental and technical one, BUT as everybody expects a market crash soon I like to be on the other side...IMO the market will crash when nobody will be thinking about it!!! when inflation will be down, and when Covid will no longer be in our "head". "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" Look first/Then Leap
SP:SPX
by Philoslother
3
How To Be ContrarianMy goal is to try to make traders and investor THINK DIFFERENTLY about markets. I believe as humans we seek validation, comfort in affirming our beliefs, and that manifests in the wild swings of the market when the narrative is proven wrong. Back in January 2021 I made an uncomfortable bet on Exxon NYSE:XOM . It was uncomfortable at the time because the narrative was that "dirty energy" was dead, oil was going down to $12/barrel, and EV was the future. These may very well all be true... but it was early. And in investing; being early and being wrong are often indistinguishable. At the time, Exxon was trading below book value (market cap < assets-liabilities on balance sheet), it offered a 7% dividend yield which they did not cut, and had just hit a double bottom. It was NOT obvious at the time... only in hindsight. But these are the types of contrarian trades that investors MUST look at to achieve outsized gains.
NYSE:XOM
by norok
6
gold the next big rush and why people dont understand yet*shortwhile the world is distracted and panicking about silver and gold my recommendation, is to avoid and not to day trade. pick a conviction and stick with it. as for me i have watch read countless people ideas. best thing to come out of our current hyper-financialization world is we get real-time data and information. that way i look at charts is the emotion of the market. and just like any relationship you generally have an idea of how its going and how its going to end up, unless ur blinded by bias. so to make this short is that what's going to happen in the future is already determined and as we progress we find fewer possibilities of that outcome happening. so reasons why gold and commodities will be the best asset to own. 1) try to go a week without the plastic card( maybe your bank flag a purchase and froze you card) happen to me yesterday. how much cash do you have or are you reliant to wait on your phone to get in touch with the bank. 2) with the ease of getting credit, asset prices have ballooned homes, stocks, credit cards. interest rates will rise this is a fact. the best way is to look at other countries and see what they are doing. generally they will all be copying each other. 3) when u realise that sp500 is misleading index fund that we all not is not top 500 companies split equally but is actually top 10 percent holds majority stake. and that this boom in is fuel by big tech optmisum. in the wise words of benjamin graham from the intelligent investor. tech stocks grow the most and fastest and they also crash the most and fall the greatest. we all saw netlix crash and yeah was bad it will come up before a more devastating crash. but that is just one example of what is to come. 4) this year marks where boomers will be retiring more than working. congrats to them gonna suck when their retirement fund can only afford to buy a Bannan once a month. they wont lose their money outright cause that would cause violence but instead will devalue their worth in time over the course of 10 years. people who move their savings into commodities will be saved from this devastating loss and gold just happens to be the most convenient and easiest method and best all around. 5) with the world being less trusting of each other, and becoming more reliant on themselves. the demand for each other currency will be a fraction of what it once was. thus will result eventually in a commodity-based asset exchange unit, that is easy to move and store and won't expire, and cannot be cheated. 7) the world is heading towards violence and 70+ years of pentup peace will eventually crash and burn. we know thur history when conflict arises and we are getting there but we are far from actual conflict. a big indicator is when excessive food supplies is being stored up. no major nation has done this yet. here are just a few examples of why i belive gold will do well and in a predictable manner. don't get hyped into the fear. these are my ideas and as always stay rational
TVC:GOLDLong
by infusion
PALLADIUM THE WHITE KINGAMEX:SPPP 80% of Palladium comes from two main countries like South Africa and Russia. Since Dec 16th, 2021 Palladium has grown 68% in 72 days, less than 3 months. Palladium prices will potentially increase due to the supply pressures of palladium not moving from Russia due to the tougher sanctions stemming from the Ukrainian invasion. Roughly 50% of the worlds Palladium is produced in Russia. Banks, businesses and other countries will not be able to buy or do business with Russia, therefor causing palladium to potentially surge and breakout in my opinion due to the high demand of 8 million ounces the world needs every year. Palladium is currently at $2,364 per ounce--In any given general year approximately 10 million ounces of supply are provided a year for palladium. 7 million come from mines from two main countries like South Africa and Russia. The other 3 million come from recyclable palladium. "In 2000, both Russian and South Africa failed in suppling palladium which resulted in palladium increasing from around $200/oz to over $1,000/oz within a few months." So I can imagine based on the current economic situation how Palladium will perform in the future considering higher and multiple interest rate hikes, covid, inflation over 7%, War in Ukraine and World Wide market corrections, crashes and meltdowns as just a few examples of the abundant variables that could make palladium the contrarian investment to watch for 2022. 2020 was just the beginning in my opinion for palladium prices to start breaking out. In 2020 alone, platinum prices have climbed more than 90% (for the period 3/20/2020 to 3/26/2021) according to Sprott special reports and charts which I have personally observed. I have taken a position in the closed ended ETF by Sprott ticker symbol SPPP and will be increasing my position as I see fit as a long term investment and not as a trading asset. Thank You, CryptobuzzAnalyst-Contrarian Investor and Trader PS. This information should not be construed as trading or investment advice. This is only for entertainment and educational purposes. You should perform your own diligent research and be responsible for your own actions.
TVC:PALLADIUMLong
by CryptoBuzzAnalyst
energy is another sector looking for a higher low (XLE)energy bullishness is another sector rotation play that makes me think were in a better place than some seem to believe. i think we will experience additional bolatility for the time being, but so will the markets at large. we should keep a decent uptrend, unless the pullback proves more retracement than risk tolerance for outflows can support. the long and short of it is thag bulls have given themselves room to work with, even if we go sideways for a while.
AMEX:XLELong
by cerealtrades
OIL: Contrarian setup aheadEverybody knows that oil is heading to the moon. In recent days, I've heard numerous estimates like $150. However, I think those estimates may be based on panic. Contrarians dare to be wrong, in the face of crowd sentiment - obviously. Everybody can see the same thing on the chart - a well formed rising broadening wedge in a bull market. Expand the chart a bit for a better view. This presents a good probability of bearishness, though price is moving north. For this sort of picture there is an estimated >70% chance of a reversal. What that means is that there is a 30% chance that price will reach the moon. But what traders want is a solid prediction - which I do not do, because I have no ownership of the future. Price doesn't have to get over 90. There is no rule that says wedges have to be 100% complete. But the pattern is sufficiently well formed once there are 3 important points on the upper and lower edges of the wedge. So - in the above I am not saying that 'oil can't go to the moon'. I'm saying there is a lesser probability of that. The red faded line is only to give a picture of what could happen. A line going to the moon would not fit on the chart. 😲😁 I'll be keeping my powder dry, whilst some punch the air. Not a problem. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
O
by Captain_Walker
2
Aesthetic Analysis: Highest Point of the YearUDTRY had made a great jump in the past months, but if aesthetics are to be believe, the power of symmetry lies in a slight pull back before the end of the year. That's mainly due to being in the north edge of a long running logarithmic channel. If this is to be broken, symmetry would demand new balance points which would provide stability to the price above 14. This has a very low probability to happen within 40 days, Therefore, even though all analysts and technical indicators are hinting at a Strong Buy, it looks to me like a Strong Sell for the coming weeks.
Short
by MontyMacht
Buttefly Pattern in Bajaj FinserveBajaj finserv is in the super uptrend and looks like overbought on the monthly and weekly chart. We can also see some negative divergence on the daily chart. And if I go down to the hourly chart I can see it forming a Bearish Butterfly pattern. The Butterfly pattern is a reversal pattern composed of four legs, marked X-A, A-B, B-C, and C-D. It helps you identify when a current price move is likely approaching its end. The Butterfly is a reversal pattern that allows you to enter the market at extreme highs and lows. As we all know, Bajaj Finance is trading at extremely high levels, spotting this pattern can be a real deal. This pattern suggests two resistance zone as it might see a sharp sell-off from there, which would definitely scare the weak hands. Resistance zone 1: 17655 - 17716 Resistance zone 2: 17978 - 17992 This is a contra trade, hence risky, and should be traded with strict SL. This is purely an educational post and should not be considered as a piece of advice to trade in the stock.
NSE:BAJAJFINSVShort
by manuagarwal21
USDCAD Testing the Previous Swing Peak The price action of the USDCAD pair is currently nearing the last swing peak at 1.28000 (the Distribution area in red). If it manages to penetrate above it, the price would then likely head towards the 1.272 Fibonacci extension level at 1.29054. The dollar strengthening in the short term is owing to investors and traders' expectations of FED tapering. Notice that the current uptrend commenced following a breakout above the Pennant pattern. Bears can look for an opportunity to sell around 1.29054 on the expectation for a minor correction. The price action could then fall to the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 1.26191.
Short
by Trendsharks
1
Hidden Bullish Divergence BTC - Buy any dips major or smallA lot lining up speaking to a short to mid term recovery in BTC and possibly what could feed into a 2013 style double pump rally. MACD histogram crossed over and trending higher for first time since bearish move under. RSI and Stochastic both calling BS on BTC's price trend lower. Sentiment turning bearish and Saylor still has plenty of fire power. Call bullshit on any moves lower over the coming days but keep a bit of cash handy incase Bitfinex whales can flip momentum but it's more likely we see higher prices to kick off August.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by SeanBronato
1
GBPUSD Poised to Break Lower The GBPUSD looks set to attempt forming a new bearish correction at least to the descending trend line (TP Area 1). Notice that the latter had previously served as a major resistance but is currently taking the role of a descending support. In other words, it could initiate another bullish rebound once the price falls to it. At the same time, the recent bullish pullback has been unable to break out above 1.39000 decidedly, which implies that the underlying bullish pressure is running on fumes. This assertion is supported by the fact that the Stochastic RSI indicator is currently demonstrating rising selling pressure. Hence, the anticipated bearish reversal is likely to emerge soon.
Short
by Trendsharks
1
GBPJPY's Pennant Needs to be Completed Before a Bearish ReversalThe GBPJPY is currently forming a Pennant pattern, which presupposes diminishing volatility. Such conditions are typically observed whenever the market is ranging, potentially before the price gets ready to develop a new upswing/downswing. The current upswing could reach the Test Area in green before a major bearish reversal takes place. Bears can look for an opportunity to sell near the Area's upper boundary at 152.00 with the intention to catch the subsequent downswing towards the Target Area. Keep in mind that the price action is currently probing the 100-day MA, which could prove to be an impregnable resistance even before the GBPJPY manages to reach 152.000. Moreover, the 200-day MA (in purple) is currently converging with the lower boundary of the Test Area, so there are multiple places where a bearish reversal could occur.
Short
by Trendsharks
3
SAS (Scandinavian Airlines) - A contrarian COVID recovery bet?SAS(Scandinavian Airlines) has been butchered through 2020 as well as many other of its peers. Maybe now is the time to consider a contrarian bet on this stock? After experiencing extreme volatility to the upside and extreme volatility to the downside, SAS looks like it´s finally consolidating. it has a nice support area ranging from 1.57 to resistance at 1.93. It has also broken the falling trend from 1st October to 28th December. 1 option is to trade the breakout at 2 SEK or wait for a re-test at 1.57 For an investor, it could be the time to start accumulating at these levels.
SLong
by NorseTrader
1