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Contrarian

Is the top behind us ? Has the downtrend begun ? I think so Key concepts I talked about in this video are outlined below. I wish I could cover more concepts and go into more detail but had a 20min time limit for the video. Maybe I could make a part 2. - false breakouts - global indices showing topping patterns and breaking down - FED balance sheet peaked in june 2020 - parabolic mania in tech stocks - PUT/ CALL ratio reflecting extreme complacency - 2nd wave of lockdowns and layoffs due to the virus
SP:SPXShort
by markethunter888
8
Is Tesla overvalued ?Hello Traders, I am back from holidays and a lot of action happened during the past month. The SP 500 Future did hold the 3000 and broke above the 3150 to make a fresh high at 3290. Dollar weakened due to the colossal amount of money printed by the FED and as a consequences pushed the GOLD to an All time high (Around 1950$). So inflation is most likely to eat the value of your dollar and smart people are looking at the stock market as a way to protect their wealth. Tech is profiting big time from this strategy and an outsider is also taking advantage of this fear, tech heaven oriented market aka TESLA . NASDAQ:TSLA Tesla which is directed by Elon Musk who is seen as a modern hero is profiting from a big inflow of cash which in my opinion is due to several factors. Fundamentally : Pros: 1.Tesla is revolutionary in this way of making car as they aim for Powerfull electric driverless cars . 2.Demand for green and sustainable product are increasing after the Covid19 crisis, consciousness in the mass has apparently shifted for a greener economy.. 3.Tesla is considered as a tech company even though they produce car, so they are also profiting from the flight to tech observed since march. 4.After the last earnings, it's seem that Tesla meets the requirements to be included in the SP500 Index and will profit of massive flow from ETFs. Cons: 1.Tesla is barely profitable (Earning Per Share) is 1.14$ vs 1500$ Share Price .. (Source Investopedia) 2. Sells declined this year and might continue to do so if the real economy doesn't pick up 3. Valuation is way too big compared to the other big player in the sector as they are massively invested in EVs and will continue to do so. 4. Trade War with China could slow down the access to the Chinese market which is a huge factors in Tesla's future profitability in my opinion as China need more than anyone else this type of vehicules. 5.Classic Long/short market neutral Strategy becomes attractive to hedge fund to short Tesla and Buy all the others auto companies 6. SP 500 inclusion will take time Technically : 1.Tesla return of 542.6% over the last 12 months, more than 60 times greater than the S&P 500's total return of 8.9%. All figures are as of July 20, 2020. (Source Investopedia) 2. Tech stocks are in overvalued and Tesla could come down if techs enters in correction or sector rotation. Levels : The stock holds on a daily support at 1374 $ and helped by the 20 days MA On a weekly basis the stock is overextended and we could see a consolidation or even a sharp sell off to 1000 $ On a monthly chart a correction on the 650/700$ could be healthy which would be in line with others automakers market cap but still on top. Always risk management according to the Trade probability Speculative Contrarian Trade Idea : if breakdown Short below 1374$ Stop 1500$ (Above the break) Target 1000$ (Weekly Support) Invalidation of the scenario would a break above the al time high (1800$) with the support of the SP500 and Nasdaq 100, Thanks for reading, Like if you like and/or leave a comment below to share new ideas, Peace,
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by atraderinthecity
3
General Electric - contrarian buy?NYSE:GE is not the stock you probably want to own given all the heat experienced by the company recently. But from contrarian perspective, nice levels right now to attempt speculative buy. Price retraced by 61.8% of previous bounce and is holding the line of previous resistance. Today may be the third daily candle when 7.8 is held, indicating that good support zone might be formed at around current levels. Trade: stop at 6.39 (previous low), target at ~13$
NYSE:GELong
by Silvestrov
Fertilizer Stocks look ready to bottom and Nutrien best pick.The promise of better weather this growing season (Farmer's Almanac) than terrible 2019, Locusts in Africa destroying crops and possible higher demand in China for agricultural products should improve sales for nutrients. Canada has the 2nd largest reserves of Potash in the world, and is the leader in terms of global production. One advantage for the price of potassium chloride is the fact that more than one producer has curtailed production of late. Low natural gas prices an advantage for Nutrien in Canada when it comes to Nitrogen fertilizer. They also have large retail network worldwide. At a P/E of 16X trailing earnings, a 4% dividend yield and substantial free cash flow, the stock seems good value here.
NYSE:NTRLong
by malvinspooner
1
Want some ETH for 45 bucks?Want some ETH for 45 bucks? Well, this could be your lucky year. Blood is going to flow on the streets and the ones' that are prepared are going to bate in it. What we are about to see in the following months is fear and greed gripping the minds of everyone in this crypto world, everyone that has remained oblivious to the true nature of this market that is. ETH could possibly retrace back to 228$ before the big fall. The count gives a technical opportunity that is usually realized by manipulation, but nonetheless the count usually comes true. I personally believe that BTC dominance is going to retrace a little bit, giving the major altcoins the opportunity to "stretch their legs". After that false hope, there is going to be a massacre, pure and simple. Subscribe for this channel and prepare your popcorn, because the following months are going to be remembered in history as some of the most outrageous and painful for bulls.
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by Kairos_Alpha
10
Trapping Breakout and Retracement TradersThis is by no means to be anti-breakout/anti-retracement. I find these entry methods as a valid entry method. As valid as it is, the triggers for such entry method are mostly obvious hence easily to be taken advantage of by the institutional traders. For breakout traders, how these banks would trap is the normal fake breakouts. We all know this as it is a guarantee that it is part of a retail trader, to be the receiving end of this stop hunt. Even if the breakout turns out to be the start of a trend, the institution would tap into the breakout traders stop-loss first (if there is not enough liquidity) before the move continues away from the breakout level. For retracement traders (who prefers the price to retrace first upon the breakout before entry) are not safe with this stop hunt as well. Whatever triggers it was, the stop loss for this traders tends to reside the recent highs or lows of the underlying move. In this example, let's assume the trigger was a bearish engulfing candle. The stop loss would normally be a few pips above the high of the candle. This is just my personal preference with all due respect for those who trades breakouts and retracements (and I am sure some of you made tons of profits trading this way, I just can't make it work and I never able to be comfortable with it, for these reasons I tend to fade breakouts and avoid "retracement" and "continuation" trade triggers respectively. Read my other posts on that has titles like "Navigating the Market" and other educational posts which I share how I navigate the market to eliminate the noise and finding the optimal time to trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by sufiansaid
Trade the Other Side of RetailSpotting where the buy stops and sell stops (which the institutional traders would look for and eventually consume it) is not that difficult. All you need is to think "when I was a newbie trader, where would I put my stops based on xyz method" The most common stop losses that is easy to spot are ones for reversal traders (using reversal candlestick pattern such as the bearish engulfing candle for a short signal) and retracement traders (and MA crossover traders) You can refer to the chart what I am talking about. Once you determine the potential stops, then that becomes your own discovered liquidity pool. It will come very handy for your own entry points, bias setting or simply knowing which levels to avoid to put your stops. Remember, institutional traders have BIG positions to make and with big positions you need liquidity so there will be no slippage when they make their market order (i.e Bank Trader in Canada wants to buy 500 million units AUD at 0.90600 but not enough supply/sellers at that price, so to avoid being filled at much more expensive price (slippage), then he wait and/or manipulate the price where there are enough sellers for him to buy the AUD that is at a better price than 0.90600. Liquidity Pool is the area where the Bank Trader in Canada would look to buy the AUD and where that liquidity pool would be? Where there are a lot of stops. 0.89800 resides a lot of stops that would be enough for the 500 million order to be filled without slippage (This is just an oversimplification, sometimes Banks would split their orders) Using my own personal market navigational method, I draw Friday High and Low, and see where the price would close above/below. If price breaks above Friday low, I would see if it could breaks above the blue line where the bank would take out all the stops around 0.90400-0.90800 (the higher the better) there and then perhaps push the price down after that. If price breaks below Friday low, I would see if it could break the stops around 0.89800-0.89600 (the deeper the better) and then I would be looking for a bullish trigger to long AUDCAD
by sufiansaid
Could Bitcoin double-top at ATH ($20k) end of THIS month?!Hi everyone, Welcome to another unpopular idea on Bitcoin. ATH end of this month?! I present it because I don't see anyone offering it as a possibility. Could Bitcoins current parabolic rise since beginning of the year be mimicking almost exactly the parabola of the 2nd half of 2017? We present the 2019 parabola as an exact replica of the 2017 parabola. If price action rhymes and day range of parabola too, Bitcoin could hit $20,000 end of August 2019 or early September. Yep, that's end of THIS month. How likely is this scenario? Not much. But then again, our job is to offer all possibiilities. And since everyone seems to be talking about a relatively boring sideways action re-accumulation phase for a few months, this idea then becomes juicy as a contrarian - not thinking the same as all analysts. This is not financial advice - just an idea :) Cheers, Leb Crypto
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Leb_Crypto
$LTC >> Tomorrow halving event. Bullish or bearish?Hi everyone, Welcome to an update on Litecoin. Litecoin looks bullish to me, even after having corrected 47% from the June 2019 highs. My main argument in this idea is that Litecoin will continue to be bullish after the halving event (tomorrow) because everyone is looked at history and thinking that Litecoin usually crashes after the event, "buy the rumor, sell the news" type thing. I don't think this will be the case this year. As a contrarian, I believe the market makers will do just the opposite of that. Litecoin will probably continue to surge and break its recent highs this month, especially if Bitcoin continues its trajectory to $13k. What's also very interesting is that people are not talking about it; Litecoin tweets and posts on social media have significantly reduced since June. That's another contrarian market sentiment indicator, leading me to believe that LTC is preparing for a rip to the upside. Technically, in the short term, $LTC is in a bullish ascending triangle with a healthy upward trending RSI and MACD... It's also maintaining the 2019 trend line support! Hope you enjoyed - if you find this valuable, please leave a like as this helps to develop our channel and audience. Cheers, Leb Crypto
COINBASE:LTCUSDLong
by Leb_Crypto
2