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Contrarian

EURAUD, RETAIL TRADER POSITIONING A SCREAMING LONG!EURAUD is trading in a tight range of 1.5650 to 1.5800, the pair is in a pause before the next leg up and over 1.5800. I am looking for an entry @ 1.5650-65 with a bullish candle. Also the the pair is resting on the 20 day ema, the only indicator I use, coupled with over 77% of retail trader short on this pair lends me to look for longs. I think you can get a nice rr of at least 5 plus if you can get in close to the bottom of the box.
Long
by tartantrader
CLF: Contrarian OutlookCLF is a buy in my opinion but the price must close above the .786 fib retracement box I have placed in on the chart for a long position to be considered. Noted for a lagging share price to the industry, yet considered a great company with potential. To those trading the steel market, fundamentally the opinion is definitely swaying towards bullish for 2018. --US housing starts rose 3.3% to a SAAR of 1.297 million units (November) and The Architectural Billing Index rose to 55, both of which are good signs for an increase in the demand and spending on steel. Coupled with the future infrastructure projects proposed by trump signs are looking good. --Toyota/Mazda plant has just been approved in Alabama, estimating 300,000 vehicles per year starting in 2021. --Chinese Steel exports have fallen for over 15 consecutive months. ---CLF announced a new HBI plant in Ohio w/ a capacity of 1.6+million tons a year. For a safe position, i am looking for price to close above the .786 fib as stated above, this would reject the potential pattern i have drawn on the chart. The boxes are calculating +/-2 % variance of the Fibonacci ratios. If we do not see a close above, a daily doji and a bounce of the .786 could be signs for a lower share price. In that case look to enter around 5.70 which seems to be a good support, or look for a completion of the ABCD pattern.
NYSE:CLF
by Jroge107
Sell GBP Anticipating Bad GBP DataToday is generally a quite day. In term of price action thus far USD is most bearish vs AUD most bullish. The tier 1 event today however is with GBP. I do not think it is going to have huge impact but nevertheless the GBPCHF is very Net Long and looks like the market in general is expecting supportive GBP data. My analysis shows otherwise and I'd like to be there if market is wrong. Price action is still mildly bullish for the pair and I've set a Limit Short around the 1.29 level. If it's not hit, I'll use market order to enter closer to data release. If data is bad as I anticipated I expect strong reverse reaction to take out Long's Stop-loss. If data is bad however, I'd take the trade off, I may also take it off if initial market reaction show that it doesn't care for the data, in which case I think retail sentiment can take over and push the pair above 1.29 level.
Short
by vietbach1990
Long NZDCAD - Anticipating Bad CAD dataThis is probably will be my 2nd trade of the day. I don't intend to put it on yet since I may give market too much room to go against me. The thesis is again based on my expectation that CAD data is bad vs the good expectation. It is however not a very significant data and it's isolated. If market has little reaction I'm not interested in holding it for long. The pair in focus for me is NZDCAD. It is Net Short so far indicating CAD is bought there. Entry plan for me is to enter nearer to event announcement, ideally if the pair just hovering in the 0.885-0.883 area. I'll exit if the news came out good for CAD and also since this is an isolated event, if I can be in profit I'll probably take it off in the hour after the news.
Long
by vietbach1990
Be Brave. Short BTCFOMO at its peak right now makes it a good time to think outside the square... BTC at the top of the channel at point of resistance around 4600. RSI overbought. Money has shifted into BTC from Altcoins in a wave of fomo that spread across the globe with people trying to 'cash in' on the upcoming forks. But... The depleted altcoin market now presents a much stronger opportunity to claim large gains...gains that will be stronger than those of the Bitcoin Gold fork taking place late October, and the distrubution of coins likely Early November - still a while away. Expecting a swing back to the 4400 level due to this combination of technical and macro analysis. Good Luck.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by cajones85
Short USD Anticipating Bad DataUSD Analysis: - Positioning: Net Long, most in USDCHF, no pair is Net Short - Price action: Net Short at this point thus there is a disagreement between the Retail's position and the market's sentiment. USDCHF in particular is down. - Fundamental: I think the ADP data will be a Miss while ISM will be a Beat thus Neutralize each other Conclusion: ADP data miss will add to the overall bearishness of the USD Pair. Those USDCHF Long is the least well position for that so I will short USDCHF for ADP release. Whatever the initial reaction, I will look to reduce the position. For the ISM release which I expect Fundamental to be strong so probably that will affect my USDCHF short a fair bit. Technical levels: - Support: 0.97 - Resistance: 0.975
Short
by vietbach1990
19
Long GBPJPY Anticipating Strong GBP DataI've realized that I've making too many trades lately and with increasing complication in my analysis. This trade is my attempt to go back to the core of being a contrarian, trying to find the most "pain" in the market and benefit from it. My game plan is now: first looking at retail's positioning that is the most extreme for the currency pair in focus, monitoring the price action associated with the pair to see if market has been agreeing/disagreeing to that view from the retail's perspective. Finally is to assess the % probability of the fundamental event in focus and conduct a scenario analysis. Analysis: - Positioning: Net Short, most in GBPJPY, no pair is Net Long - Price action: Net Long at this point thus there is a disagreement between the Retail's position and the market's sentiment. GBPJPY in particular is relatively flat. - Fundamental: Service PMI is expected to be flat but I think it has a better chance to beat the estimate. Conclusion: Go Long GBPJPY, if the data is bad I expect the initial reaction of people who Shorted early is to TP and that will send the pair temporarily higher and I will TP there. If the data is indeed a beat, I can hold this trade longer, maybe to end of day. Technical levels: - Support: 149.0 - Resistance: 149.5-150
Long
by vietbach1990
Short EURNZD - Overextended post EUR Bad DataI re-assess the EUR pairs heading into the Spain data release by benchmarking what the Retail Sentiment was relative to what the market was expecting and my conclusion is EURNZD is the one that is most overextended relative to the fundamental of the pair. It has been the best performer during Asia session and ever extend gain after bad data during UK session and I think it should be losing steam now. Timing wise I intend to hold this until end of today, betting it will reverse course during US session. I do have the Short EURUSD on though so for risk management purpose, I'd only bet 1/2 the usual size here.
Short
by vietbach1990
Long EURNZD or EURGBP Anticipating Good EUR DataThis is not a significant event to trade on. Nevertheless, I would still put it on as a practice for my analysis. * Fundamental: The Spain data is expected to be Good, I expected it to be even better. * Positioning/Supply-Demand: EUR is Net Short, most heavily in EURNZD vs Net Long in EURGBP * Sentiment/Price Action: EUR is Net Long, most is EURNZD vs least is EURUSD To me, the path of least resistance is to go Long EURNZD which has already gone up despite being Net Shorted as people will have to cover their short once the news data is released. Alternatively one can go Long on EURGBP as people who Net Long it may add to their position following the data release. On the flipside, if the data is worsed than expected, best pair to short EUR against is EURUSD which has already been bearish on both the Sentiment and Positioning standpoint. Technical level to watch: 1.645 and 1.63 for EURNZD or 0.885 and 0.88 for EURGBP
Long
by vietbach1990
Long EURUSD - Trade in and Swap US Good Data This is my first attempt to simultaneously trade "into" and "out of" data release. The thesis is on ISM PMI release later, which the USD expected to do badly. My game plan is I'd like to trade with the data expectation for now despite my calculated odd that the data will be good. Meaning I'll short USD and revert my position closer right before the data release. This is more or less an experimental trade that I come up from my very limited experience trading news. Positioning wise: - EUR: Net Short, most heavily is EURJPY while EURGBP is Net Long - USD: Net Long, most heavily is EURUSD while none is Net Long Technical level to watch: 1.17 - 1.18
Long
by vietbach1990
Short EURGBP - Bad EUR vs Good GBP DataToday is going to be a very slow day with little event to trade on. The most important news today is the UK and US' PMI number. Even though they are expected to be bad, my statistic shows it is a better odd for them to beat expectation. On the other hand, I think EUR will be negative although not by much. The sentiment for EUR, GBP and USD are: - EUR: Net Short, heaviest in EURJPY but EURCAD and EURGBP are Net Long - GBP: Net Short, heaviest in GBPJPY but GBPNZD is Net Long - USD: Net Long, heaviest in EURUSD but AUDUSD is Net Short I'd prefer not to take USD given the Tax discussion overhang. It has potential to gap USD. Choosing EURGBP for this quite day seems the most enticing risk-reward. I'm in and will hold the trade through the EUR and GBP data release. Technical level to watch: 0.88 - 0.875
Short
by vietbach1990
Short GBPCAD - Anticipating Dissappointing GBP News FlowMy statistical studies shows that GBP hard data release today is likely to be dissapointed. CAD will also have somewhat dissapointed data in my opinion, however relatively it will have the smallest "dissapoinment gap" amongst the Majors. In addition, today we will have 2 speeches coming out from MPC Member Broadbent and the BOE Governor Carney, both of whom has sent the GBP lower during their previous speech. Positioning wise: retails are shorting GBP with the most significant Short being GBPUSD and GBPJPY. For CAD, CAD is also net shorted with CADJPY the most shorted. I am already in and I do intend to hold this trade all the way today unless stopped out. My SL is 1.676 and there is no major TP (some interested technical level would be 1.665 and 1.660). Of course I may adjust throughout the days as the news are released.
Short
by vietbach1990
Sell USDCAD - Anticipating Weak US data and Hawkish CAD commentUSD has been increasing consistently over the Asian session. It's a aftermath effect as market digest more of Yellen's yesterday speech, plus there are some more US data coming up and is on average expected to be good. My statistical analysis shows that the data may not be as good as expected. Furthermore I think Governor Poloz's speech later in the day is a more important driver for the pair and my base expectation is it is going to be a hawkish comment and that may send CAD higher. Sentiment wise, retails are Long USD and Short CAD. Most severely Short CAD is USDCAD and most severely Long USD is GBPUSD. I would fade USD strength and bet on CAD strength reversal. I'm still looking for an entry, either via price action or I will enter closer to the data release if the pair pull closer to 1.24 level. My TP is after Poloz's speech, of course it depends on how hawkish he is going to be but I can use price action to take off then, interest level are 1.235 or 1.23.
Short
by vietbach1990
Long EUR - Anticipating Hawkish Draghi SpeechActually I do not believe Draghi's speech will be "very" hawkish. What gives me more confident to put this trade on is because the market may have oversold EUR. More particularly EURGBP (following PM Theresa May's last week comment). Retail sentiment is short EUR (except for the EURNZD - which is due to NZ's mixed election result) so I want to go Long. Technical levels: it is trading within the 0.879-0.88 support range (it has been a strong support since the GBP appreciation two weeks ago) and I put my SL below 0.875.
Long
by vietbach1990