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Contrarian

Long EURJPY - Anticipating Reversing of Fear induced JPY TradeThis morning JPY strengthen across the board due to Trump and North Korea's comment. In my opinion the move is quite overextended as now the prospect of another bomb test is no longer a surprised. Fundmentally EUR is a strong currency and the reaction yesterday from Draghi's speech was positive. EUR is due a string of data today, of which I expected them to be weak. The reason I still long EURJPY is because these data are of no significant importance and that Draghi's comment likely weight heavier (I expect him to remain hawkish to certain extend just like yesterday). I'm in 1/2 and will add on retracement if data release was bad and that push this pair lower. Technical levels: I may add more if it dipped back to 133.5. My SL is ard 133 level and TP is around 135
Long
by vietbach1990
Long GBPAUD - Anticipating Good GBP Data NZD has strengthened across the board following the latest New Zealand election poll which places the ruling National Party in the lead with 46% of the votes and Labour behind on 37%. This is to me a much more a local issue and yet since AUD follows NZD closely, GBPAUD tanked too. Fundamentally, I am Bullish GBP and Neutral to Bearish on AUD, I'd like to fade the sentiment. In addition, given the general weak GBP and my expectation that Retail Sales will be a Beat, GBP may have some support going forward. I have not entered yet and will be in around half an hour leading to the event. In term of lined up events, both GBP and AUD does not have much. In term of technical level, I don't think it can go back to 1.72 without more significant news but maybe 1.7 is more achievable. My SL will be below round level at 1.675.
Long
by vietbach1990
Long USDJPY - Anticipating Dissappointing US DataBased on my statistics, the string of US data release will be dissappointing and the market so far sort of agree. The reason I want to go Long USDJPY is because if the market has priced in weakness and it match, there won't be much selling takes place. On the other if any of these data manage to surprise to the upside, I will be very happy. Why USDJPY? The strongest pair thus far is USDJPY and it's actually more of JPY move, if US data is as I expected them to be, USDJPY can have the next leg. TP is 111.92, SL is 110.5, I'm in half now and another halfif it retrace a bit to 111 round level
by vietbach1990
5
Short AUDUSD - USD Oversold heading into CPI DataMarket is Net Sell USD, thinking it's probably will miss the CPI data despite the base expectation of a beat. Now actually I think it does even need to beat the expectation rather just an on target outcome will be enough to send the USD higher. We just had the GBP release which are very good. Eventhough the vote was Neutral as expected, there was hint of BOE being closer to cutting down on their QE. Thus despite being the most over-extended I'd rather not go Short GBPUSD and instead choose AUDUSD to express my view. Again, this is the next most oversold USD pair and I think the early morning AUD is pretty much baked in and should be disregards. I entered Short at ard 0.8. My stop is above 0.818 and TP is depend on the intial re-action but I'd love to reach 0.7955
Short
by vietbach1990
Long GBPUSD - Anticipating a Good but not Great DataWe have USD PPI data coming up soon and I've been trying to decipher how the market may have anticipated this. Retail sentiment is Net Long of USD so my base expectation is unless its a better-than-expected number we shouldn't see too much of a jump in USD. Historically a beat is ~45% chances, going back to 2007 data. Now to position myself to the trade, there is a bit difficulty as I want to look the most extreme divergence to profit, GBPUSD looks particularly oversold (thanks to the mixed data releases this afternoon). On the risk management standpoint, I am still down on paper for my GBP long so I do not want to add too much GBP exposure here. I'm in 1.3276. SL is 1.323 and I expect this to move somewhat against me if the data is good or significantly in my favor if its a miss or just on target. CPI is the more important figure to watch and its for tomorrow.
Long
by vietbach1990
Short EURUSD - Anticipating good US data (No Entry Yet)Beside my GBP trade, I'm also looking at US data release. It's a preset for tomorrow CPI release which also anticipated to be good. The reason I don't want to pull the trigger right away is because retail sentiment is also pointing toward a Short on this pair and that makes me worry maybe as the price increase and slowly work through all those SL I may have a better entry. My trig.ger is when retail sentiments start to move to the long EURUSD side (short USD) I will enter. The more the retracement the more happy I am at the moment, probably to back to 1.2 and even try hovering nearer to 1.205.
Short
by vietbach1990
NZDCAD - CAD oversold leading heading into good dataNZDCAD erased all the gains from CAD rate hike. NZD is a high yield currency so understandably if they gain significantly against low yield currency such as USD but to gain a lot against another commodity currency such as CAD is puzzeling to me. Next week there is not much news for both NZD and CAD but the most significant data left this week is the CAD employment data which is expected to be good for CAD. The general price action so far today has zero consideration for this in my opinion. I checked sentiment all across CAD pairs and it's a general sell-off, leading by USDCAD but the actual most gain so far today is NZDCAD so I thought the odd to go short from here is better. Technical wise, it is re-testing the resistance at 0.885 round level and Pivot 0.886. I will enter Short here. Stop is above the Pivot and TP is around 0.878 level.
Short
by vietbach1990
NZDJPY - Long - Missed TradeShort term market sentiment can often drive the currency pair to a price level that does not make senses fundamentally. As my failed JPY trade unwinded in the morning, I've been too occupied with the NZDCAD play and totally disregarded the mean reversal aspect of FX as rate stray too far from general equilibrium. My observation: the overcrowded JPY trade should leave the JPY weaken against all the other pairs and yet in the 2 hours after the gap down in JPY, one partcular pair defines the fundmental and that is NZDJPY. This is where being a contrarian perfectly helps, the UK and US traders have yet to be able to unwind all of their Long JPY since weekend thus there is a very likely chance it will drift the whole day and the strong bounce from NZD is odd as there is no major news for it this week. This is a trade I only realize after observing the relative moment across all the crosses singled out by 1 currency at a time. As of this writing I'm seeing all the NZD and JPY agree strongly, short JPY and long NZD, fundamentally short JPY make sense but I'm reluctant to go along with long NZD thus I consider this a Neutral. If you want to have an expensive currency to bet against JPY, perhaps CAD is a better choice.
by vietbach1990
Short AUDCAD - residue play post rate hike (Late Entry)This morning as the beginning of Asia session you can see that the market bid up AUD prepping for a good Trade Balance Data. This is kinda hit and miss historically, I just did a quick statistics analysis to data release since end of 2013 and the missed forecast currently at 49%. Not very encouraging for a certain bet. The price action up until the announcement was strongest in AUDCAD, which again tilting the odds in the Short favor. If data is a hit, it likely won't move much further given the pair has had a big retracement since CAD rate hike last night, on the other hand a miss would prepare you the best entry to squeeze out the last juice from the rate hike. Again, retail IG Sentiment is Long, I wanna be Short. Technical level was 0.98 and this week Pivot at 0.9817. I did not take the trade as I was away from desk but if it's retracing to just around the 0.98-0.9792 (Last Week Pivot) I will enter. Target wise, I'd love to hit the 0.971-0.972 area but it won't get there if there is no further support from CAD news coming Friday. As for AUD, I don't expect Governor Lowe to make any hawkish remarks. It's still a bit of a risk event that if you make early entry now and trail your stop loss just before the speech, I believe that gives a better protection.
Short
by vietbach1990
3
NSPR Could Be Deep Value Comeback StoryI wrote an extensive piece on NSPR in which I go into depth on the company and the potential turnaround story, you can find it here: rockvuecapital.wordpress.com Trading at a 77% discount to book value, an 81% discount to sales, an 81% discount to NCAV, and a 43% discount to net cash, NSPR is roadkill in the market. However, no matter how great the value may seem, it does nothing for us if the price action doesn't coincide with our thesis. For this reason we must take into consideration the chart. As you can see from the chart, there is tremendous amounts of consolidation at the 0.76 to .60 price channel. In an effort to focus more on the price action, I am looking for a breakout from that 0.76 price level. If that breakout happens, it could signal the bullish thesis I laid out. A more convincing price action would be a breakout above the 50 MA. I am content to wait on this one and wait for the price action to confirm my entry.
NLong
by BrandonBeylo
3
S&P 500 - SPY Extremely Bullish Indications - Multi ConfirmationI have been operating on the assumption that the Dow Jones TVC:DJI will reach 20,000 as it certainly Makes America Great(er) Again(Than before 20,000)!!! *insert charming sentence about the interrelated...ness'... of markets* Thus the S&P 500 will likely also rally... that takes us to the end of the macro (arguably still mostly technical) analysis portion, thank you for your patience! Technicals have been setting up another bull-run. I've linked to yesterdays post based on PCRs that are showing extremes... i.e. today the OEX's Put/Call Ratio PCOEX is at .276 (This is the cagefree-shark-diving-with-chunks of-raw-meet-tied-to-your-body degree of extreme...ness'...) --- Also, the SPX Put/Call Ratio PCSPX is sitting at a 1.624 --- Please don't ask which ones are contrarian, seriously... If you saw the chart published yesterday that I have linked to this one, you would see that I had included a pennant, and flag version... I now conclude that multiple TFs have validated and confirmed it to be a rectangle, which was my thought all along. Many folks post without extended-hours included and thus base their judgement on an incomplete data set... It is crucial to include and analyze as much of the picture as possible! Some will have you believe this to be a right angled triangle (flat bottom, descending top) but in my opinion that is a stretch, if even an option due to the nearly zero touches of the proposed support... Check this out for yourself, drop a comment or two! You want more bullishness? More than 2.5 billion shares have advanced in last 36 hours across US equities markets... Most of which did so today... While I could list many more, that would leave no work for you intrepid technical detectives of sorts... quite frankly I couldn't sleep knowing I was such a selfish taker'... Ironically my wife sleeps quite well. Oh, nearly forgot... you may be wondering about my wave analysis... self-awareness is crucial in trading, and well, I didn't leave out "Elliot" by accident... Infact, I was trying to not use the word 'analysis' either but my hunger has overtaken my desire for grammatical accuracy... I have great respect for EWA and those who have mastered it, the only mastery I have related to EWA is a mastery of knowing I know very little about it... Despite the obvious ring to it, I am afraid that really isn't a mastery... Nevertheless, based on some of the Elliot Wave Analysis I've seen from the TradingView community you could very well confuse me for Mr. Elliot Wave himself... relax, I am obviously kidding... clearly I'm nearly entirely half joking. On a side note, what are the chances of such a well-suited lastname? This must be why one school of thought has always credited the theory to his parents, they often bring up the 83 months it took Elliot to successfully pass the Grade 2 English and Math literacy examinations (Knowing the first five letters in the alphabet, counting to to five, sometimes counting to five and being told to start again but count up to two less than last time... Sometimes combining the two, i.e. Please count to five and then say the first three letters in the alphabet)... If you ask me, this is a bunch of total b.s.! I digress, please consider my wave counts as you would the previous paragraph - If by some minuscule chance they are correct, the implications would imply the start of a massive rally... aka you would want to go long, and stay long... The counts did not contribute to, or affect, my sentiment and analysis! P.S. Please feel free to leave a comment or five, this is a community after-all! ... I am fine with constructive criticism, destructive criticism, compliments, personal insults and even childish name-calling....just PLEASE have some sort of opinion, and whatever you do, don't be a fence sitter, I hate fence sitters!!!!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Kantardziski
DB: Contrarian long opportunityI'm pretty sure 97% of people were short DB lately, and pessimistic about its outlook. I was on that bandwagon, and shorting every rally for some time, but the latest developments made me change my mind on it. I think we have a great opportunity to long the stock here, if not already in that is. I'm in with a 0.25% risk position, and will add gradually to it, until I reach 1% exposure. We have to monitor the activity here, but it's possible this was a terminal wedge or ending diagonal pattern, in Elliott Wave parlance. We can add to longs on a break of Friday's close, to the upside, risking a drop under the lowest low, and add more once we break above the earnings resistance above, at around 13.72, using the same stop loss. We can also buy dips under 12.38 but I think it's unlikely to happen here. We need to reach 14.89 within 3 days to confirm the bullish momentum in the short term. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:DBLong
by IvanLabrie
10
NZDUSD Potential 2618 TradeThe double top at the top of the chart has in fact finally reversed price as bears took control of the market The neckline has been broken Will now wait to see a retest of previous structure levels in the potential reversal zone (green rectangle) Look at price action for shorting opportunities here The 618 retracement would be most ideal, but it was a pretty strong impulse move, we might only make it to the 382 neckline/trendline level. Of course there exists the possibility that this impulse move is not done yet, in which case this entire setup is invalid. The move could be consolidating right now for a small flag, and then continue to push down. Wait for the perfect moment to place your orders, patience is key. Happy trading to all.
Short
by NickofJupiter
2