Unlocking the Power of Option Analysis for Forex TradingFiltering Options by Sentiment: A Key to Profitable Trading
As traders, we're constantly on the lookout for ways to gain an edge in the markets.
Option portfolios analysis is not a magic solution for success itself, but it can and should be a great tool to add to your trading strategy.
Learning how to analyze the option portfolios of big and successful players on one of the world's biggest exchanges can really improve your market awareness and give you more confidence when reading the current market trends.
The Power of Option Analysis
Option analysis is not just about identifying bullish or bearish sentiment. It's about understanding the nuances of market psychology and identifying opportunities that others may be missing. By filtering options by sentiment, we can identify portfolios that are more likely to result in profitable trades.
Key Factors to Consider
When filtering options by sentiment, there are several key factors to consider:
1. Size and value of the option portfolio
2. Distance from the central strike (Delta)
3. Time to expiration
4.Appearance on the rise/fall of the underlying asset
By considering these factors, we can identify option portfolios that are more likely to result in profitable trades.
As mentioned above, option portfolios with names such as vertical spread, butterfly, and condor (in English - VERTICAL SPREAD, IRON FLY/FLY, CONDOR/IRON CONDOR) have predictive sentiment regarding the direction of the asset's price movement. However, it is critically important to be able to filter out such sentiment, since similar portfolios are widely used and appear almost daily in CME exchange reports, but only a small percentage of them have predictive value.
Portfolios that are traded during a price movement with an obvious trend have low value. On the other hand, if a portfolio appears in a sideways market before the start of a trend and meets other conditions, which will be discussed later, it is reasonable to fix such a portfolio on the chart and subsequently track its correction (closure/partial closure/re-sale).
If you "caught" such a portfolio that is already generating profit for its owner, i.e., the price is moving in the desired direction, you get an additional bonus: by tracking changes in this portfolio, you can understand whether the price movement will continue in the chosen direction or whether the movement is fading or has exhausted its potential and it's time to close your position.
It is necessary to track changes daily using QuickStrike and GlobexTradeBrowser by CME GROUP.
If you track less frequently, you can lose the thread of sentiment. I recommend performing analysis on a regular basis.
Some examples:
On July 17th, there was a really big beat on the Japanese yen in the options market for October. The bed was based on the idea that the yen futures would go up (or the dollar/yen forex rate would fall). As we saw, the bat started to pay off almost immediately, and the yen came really close to the target in just a few days!
Could we have used this information for forex trading? Absolutely. The risk-reward ratio on this trade was about 1 : 3, but importantly , when we made this trade, we had real insider information. Insiders are required by the exchange to disclose their trades, just like other market participants.
Not using this free information in your trades would be a big mistake for a serious trader who doesn't want to gamble in market.
Another example:
In April this year, we saw a strong bullish option sentiment for Silver prices rising between $32 and $35, based on a large options portfolio stated at around $27.5. We released our forecast for Silver, and you can find a copy of it with our reasoning at the link
Cooper example:
The forecast was made after analyzing option activity on the CME exchange on April 2. You can check the results yourself and see if the time we spent studying option sentiment and analyzing was worth it.
In conclusion, as you can see, incorporating option analysis into your toolkit can really help you make more informed trading decisions.
To all serious traders, I wish you patience and dedication on your journey to trading success. Remember that mastering the art of trading takes time, effort, and perseverance. Don't be discouraged by setbacks or losses, but instead, use them as opportunities to learn and improve. Stay focused, stay disciplined, and stay committed to your goals.
Cooper
EU faces pressure to defuse mounting anger as farmers protest aGiven the mounting anger and protests by farmers across Europe, there appears to be a significant challenge stemming from contradictory and potentially detrimental agricultural policies. The grievances include increased costs for agricultural diesel, additional fees for water consumption, complex regulations, and objections to bans on pesticides and herbicides mandated by the EU's Green Deal. The farmers are also concerned about the import of beef from countries like Brazil and Argentina, which they argue have laxer rules on animal welfare, making competition difficult.
This unrest, originating in France but spreading to neighboring countries, signals a broader issue with unpredictable government decisions affecting agriculture. In the Netherlands and Germany, similar protests have arisen over regulations to cut nitrogen emissions and phase out fuel subsidies, respectively. In Germany, there is also resentment over what is perceived as the unfair application of environmental policies.
With protests extending to Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria, concerns range from unfair competition from cut-price cereals to high taxes and tight regulations. The impact of droughts, floods, and wildfires, combined with the squeeze from green policies, has fueled discontent.
For investors, this could be a pivotal moment to consider commodities such as cereals, soybeans, and copper. The disruptions in European agriculture may create fluctuations in the market, making these commodities potentially attractive for investment. However, it is crucial to monitor developments closely as tensions continue to grow, and the agricultural sector shapes up to be a major issue in the upcoming European Parliament elections in June.
Copper, Lower High? Copper / 1D
Hello Traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
Copper looks heavy after a deviation from a Long term Macro level. I would be looking for more confirmation to confirm the lower high is in which can send Cooper much lower for a second leg down.
Trade safely,
Trader Leo.
Copper Futures March April Challange Hello my friends! How is going your trading week? I hope that is doing well, anyways lets talk about this operation!
Bulish: Here we are waiting in the bullish way for a retest on TL that was recently broken, and from there we gonna wait for the retest then a break on the most recent high and the we gonna see if the price gonna reach the closest resistance (DR).
Bearish: Here for the bearish term we gonna wait for the price going back to his last channel and then get in bearish for a channel strategy of selling high and then buying low.
Buy $RIO - NRPicks 27 AgoRio Tinto Group is engaged in the exploration, extraction and processing of mineral resources worldwide. The company offers aluminum, copper, diamonds, gold, borates, titanium dioxide, salt, iron ore and uranium. It also owns and operates open-pit and subway mines.
Revenue TTM 58B
Net Income TTM 18.7B
EBITDA TTM 31.9B
Cash TTM 14B
Net Margin TTM 32.2% EBITDA margin
EBITDA Margin 54.8%
P/E 6.42
P/S 2.06
Dividend yield 6.27
Ivanhoe Mines - Minimum Retracement Almost ReachedInternational mining consultant Wood Mackenzie has ranked the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Project as the world's fourth-largest copper discovery, with copper grades that are the highest by a wide margin of the world's top 10 copper deposits.
The company has 3 principal projects in Southern Africa: the development of new mines at the Kamoa-Kakula copper discoveries in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the Platreef palladium-platinum-nickel-copper-rhodium-gold discovery in South Africa; and the extensive redevelopment and upgrading of the historic Kipushi zinc-copper-germanium-silver mine, also in the DRC.
Friedland is executive co-chairman. For more than 25 years, Friedland has been recognized by leaders of the international financial sector and mineral resource industries as an entrepreneurial explorer, technology innovator and company builder. He has successfully developed a portfolio of respected public and private companies whose initiatives have led to several of the world’s most significant mineral discoveries and mine developments, applications of disruptive technologies and contributions to significant economic growth in established and emerging markets in the Asia Pacific Region, Southern Africa and the Americas.
Cooper: the next pullback stage is necessary.Since Mars 2020 until now, Cooper did make an extremely bullish run phrase. What I am looking at the resistance area where Cooper needs to take a "breath", that could likely be a great shorting chance.
I’d consider that a nice arche rally - distribution phrase in Cooper is about to finished/ completed, then we will see the huge SPRING, mark down phrase towards the 3,6-3,8$.
Market Area: (DOUBLE top resistance) 4,33 - 4,39$ (above this area, this trade could be reconsidered or even invalid)
Entry: 4,33 - 4,36$
Stop loss: Above the Swing high (4,39$)
Taking profit:
• Target 1 in the first white box areas 4,15 - 4,25$
• Target 2: 3,9-4,0$ (around right at the EMA 200)
• Target 3: 3,6-3,8$ (the bottom in my own opinion could be LOWER than the SWING low of 21 Mars 2021 at 3,87$).
Risk/ Reward: 1:6 ( If price did make a SWING Lower low to refill the wicks in 21 Mars, then it would rally again, target 3 = reached)
The main bias in Cooper chart is still bullish, however a big correction is necessary now to attract more buyers in the demand zone.
Thank you for any comments and sharing.
CopperThe Copper after COVID-19 underwent changes, this utility metal use in Electronic devices, Telecom industries, Kitchen appliance and … . due to quarantine and preferring online jobs and increasing communicating between firms via internet and working from home, The online businesses and works developed and the producing Electronic instruments and telecom infrastructures raised.
Now we are in highest value for this metal and countries started to vaccination of all people, So it seems be better for traders to going to short. I think it will has a correction during the next couple of weeks.
Freeport w43 2020. Buy on positive earnings Q3 up to 20$Montly
Flat correction in Downtrend
Weekly
Reversal and Uptrend
Daily
Strong Uptrend
Price in 5th Elliot wave.
Looking for pullback and open position.
Positive earnings on Q3 will help to continue uptrend with steam
It is little bit risky active due to has Debt/Equite=1.1
However Freeport has other attractive financial stats, looking comptetive in sector "Cooper".
Open 18
TP 20
SL 17
COO - COOPER COS INC "Potential increase in Volatility"07/10/2020 $COO
Sentiment Algo uses advanced big data analytics. This stock has potential for a significant increase in volatility. This is not a buy/sell signal
Elliott Wave View: Copper Rallying as an ImpulseShort-term Elliott Wave view in Copper (HG_F) suggests that the metal is rallying as a 5 waves Elliott wave impulsive structure from November 15, 2019 low. Up from there, wave ((i)) ended at 2.69, and wave ((ii) pullback ended at 2.619. Subdivision of wave ((ii)) unfolded as a double zigzag. Wave (w) of ((ii)) ended at 2.653, wave (x) of ((ii)) ended at 2.679, and wave (y) of ((ii)) ended at 2.619. The metal has resumed higher in a powerful wave ((iii)) with more than 161.8% extension of wave ((i)). Up from 2.619, wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 2.676, wave (ii) of ((iii)) ended at 2.676 and wave (iii) of ((iii)) is proposed complete at 2.77.
Expect the metal to continue to extend higher to end wave ((iii)) as 5 waves up from 2.619 low. Afterwards, it should correct the cycle from December 4, 2019 low (2.619) before the rally resumes again. We don’t like selling Copper. We expect dips to continue to find support in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside. This view is valid as far as pivot at 2.619 low stays intact.
Cooper Tire: Long Term PatternCooper Tire shows recurrent pattern and is in the habit of bouncing around $25.00 and reversing back at $41.00 every few months.
It's about to cross the MACD with RSI only in the middle.
There is resistance at $35.
Cooper Tire is bullish and has support at $30.50Cooper tire might bounce around $28.14 and has previous support at $29.30 and $30.50.
There is a strong trend and an upcoming wedge.