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COP

Time for ConocoPhillips to end the skid?Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on August 16, 2021 with a closing price of 54.82. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 55.17 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 2.337% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 4.213% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 8.049% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% rise must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 7 trading bars; half occur within 21 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 34 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NYSE:COPLong
by StockSignaler
Colombian Peso under Pressure The Colombian peso has been making headlines lately. There are calls of Colombia to dollarize amidst some expert calls that the COP might be overvalued by as much as 30%. This chart is an update to my last year's chart that correctly forecasted the current price range in the usdcop pair. According to this chart, continued dollar strength and a weak cop could see prices rise by 30% $4500 once we break the key $3500 level. -- El peso colombiano ha estado en los titulares últimamente. Hay llamadas de Colombia a dolarizar en medio de algunas llamadas de expertos de que la COP podría estar sobrevaluada hasta en un 30%. Este gráfico es una actualización de mi gráfico del año pasado que pronosticó correctamente el rango de precios actual en el par usdcop. De acuerdo con este gráfico, la fortaleza del dólar y un policía débil del cop podrían ver los precios aumentar en un 30% a $4500 una vez que rompamos el nivel clave de $ 3500.
by You23
USDCOP Macro Flows Towards 3650Risk premium is low once more in EM and we have long term targets spotted at 3650 here. => The rise since April is now clearly impulsive and the last and final levels in play now for this 5th wave is 3650. Pullbacks should only be bought, as mentioned in the previous idea (see attached) and now that we have our pullback..you know what to do. To put simply, a Q3 hike is underpriced and markets will start trading increased odds of a move from the Fed later this year. It's time to start building positions on the buy-side in dollar for the next few months. Good luck, I know not many are trading EM so feel free to PM or open the discussion below. Thanks
Long
by ridethepig
BRAZILS STRETCHED RISK PREMIUM MAKES FOR "REAL" LONG OPPORTUNITYBRAZILS RISK PREMUM IS STRETCHED See "Summary Statistics" in doc below www.bcb.gov.br BRL's risk premium (currently highest across EM peers) looks stretched, given a continued pick- up in growth and reducing near-term political risk. COP's recent rally was likely driven mainly by a reversal of heavy short positioning, without a material shift in the country's economic and political outlook. Recent data releases showed that 2017 exhibited the slowest annual growth since the 2009 crisis (1.8%Y) and growth should remain sluggish in 2018, at 2.3%Y. Uncertainty about the upcoming elections poses an additional challenge for the investment outlook, given that implementing structural reforms could be key to helping to correct the fiscal deficit. The risk to this trade is that Colombia's economic data surprise to the upside, leading to further appreciation in the currency.
Long
by itzbert
Did ConocoPhillips (COP) Just Exhaust Itself?ConocoPhillips has climbed quickly in the previous month. The stock should not remain at such a high level according to technical indicators and historics, Will it head south with strong action around the 46 level? When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 65.6636. RSI tends to determine trends, momentum, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI has come down from overbought levels. The historical significance of this move and it current level are detailed below. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.2097 and the negative is 0.6935. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the stock is moving down. The positive and negative have begun to head back toward the 1 level after flirting with extremes consistent with positive stock movement. A retreat back to one typically flags the end of the upward movement while signaling a drop for the stock. The stochastic oscillator K value is 90.4177 and D value is 93.3957. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is certainly in overbought territory The D value has just overtaken the K value at the time of writing; meaning the stock will continue to decline and could drop quicker than it rose. SPECIFIC ANALYSIS I have created an algorithm which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria culminating in an oversold or overbought signal. The overbought signal could occur over the next few days. Seeing the other signs of a downturn, proactively positioning short for the stock's decline prior to seeing this verifying signal could increase profits. Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled overbought status 73 times dating back to 1981. The stock drops at least 2% over the following 35 trading days in eighty percent of these occurrences. The stock drops at least 3% seventy percent of the time and forty percent of the time loses 6.25%. Even though a drop does not always occur, these number combined with the following statistics have instilled confidence that a greater than 5% drop is looming. On 13 occasions since 1985, the RSI has exited overbought territory and been at its current level while the stochastic was simultaneously overbought and the positive VI was retreating from a level above it current one. This might not be a significant amount of data points, it is plenty for when studying historical movement. Based on this data, the stock sees a median drop of 12.09% over the next 20-35 trading days. Between all of the aforementioned historics, we are confident the stock could drop at least 5-7% over the following 38 trading days. A SAG gauge signal would further bolster this idea.
NYSE:COPShort
by StockSignaler