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BEARISH RATING - XLE (SPDR SELECT SECTOR - ENERGY)It's been about seven sessions since we first issued our real time rating on XLE as bearish, and we still believe there will be opportunity to the downside. Volatility should continue as headline risk prompts uncertainty in the markets. Even if Saudi Arabia did happen to freeze or reduce production, it could not be enough in the long-term to offset production by Iran, Iraq, Russia and US shale producers. Furthermore, as we stated well over a year ago, the continuously slowdown in global economic growth will put a damper on crude prices. Here is our note from 9.14.16: Fundamentally, we do not see a meaningful resolution between Saudi Arabia and Russia curtailing their massive crude production, in part do to the unwillingness of Iran to freeze production until it reaches 4 m/bbl per day in production. With Russia - and most of OPEC - continuing course, any production cuts by domestic producers will be offset, and the supply glut will continue. What is troubling, too, is the IEA reduced its demand forecasts by 100,000 barrels due to weaker demand from Asia. The report suggested that the supply-demand imbalance will last until the first half of 2017. If subscribers remember, we foretasted, in August 2015, that demand would continue to slow due to the global slowdown and that Chinese demand would wane. The inability for the consensus to forecast the sharp decline in global economic growth has left crude prices quite volatile. We expect ongoing EIA inventory data to favor crude bears as the industry heads into the seasonally weak winter months. Technically, a break below $68 will press ascending support. We like the technical indicator make-up that suggests that the next leg of selling is beginning as long as it is supported by key fundamental factors. As bulls continue to unwind longs, the z-score will turn bearish which we prefer on the short-side until -1.5 to -2. Bearish targets are set up on key support. Rating Specifics : Signal Trigger: $67.98 Signal Threshold: $70.02 Signal Opportunity: $60 R/R Ratio: 3.91 Duration: 1 to 3 months _______________________________________ Current subscribers get access to research and analysis spanning multi-asset classes, and real time ratings is a unique way to put research into action. If you would like to be contacted about MacroView Research and interested in subscribing, please visit macroview.co
AMEX:XLE
by MacroView_Research
Only Gap At This Point Is RequiredAs Said in title only gap at this point can make this market move to dogs. Rules to short: Short when market breaches the red horizontal line Reasons To Short: Standing on the volume any gap can make this market to go bump Divergence will be eliminated after gap so there will be nothing left to hold this market Market will follow trend if gap down News looking like we can have a gap so waiting for that as well holded at this area and moving in a upward channel which is very strong pattern Do Join Our Daily Live Trading Webinars As Webinars Free Of Cost To Watch. attendee.gotowebinar.com In Order to stay Connected And Recieve Premium Features From 2smart2trade Logon to our website www.2smart2trade.tv Add us on different social media platforms as well. Skype:Toosmart2trade Whats app:+923131086711 Twitter: twitter.com Facebook: www.facebook.com Youtube:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNlWVSJS2GFrY3VFUgMputQ Google+:https://plus.google.com/u/0/+2Smart2Trade/posts Tradingview:https://www.tradingview.com/u/2Smart2Trade/#published-charts Linkedin:https://pk.linkedin.com/in/2smart-2trade-115248bb
NYSE:COPShort
by 2Smart2Trade
10
SPX Pullbacks Are Volumeless, Stay the CourseTraders have seen this before, and it continues to play out as the global economic climate breaks down. Although these pullbacks in the SPX are often lofty and swift, it is important to realize volume is the most import factor when considering the validity of a pullback. Here , we can see that the move in SPY is volumeless. The entire squeeze from the Feb. 11 low has seen volume under the 20-day average. On balance volume is not supporting this move. Next, when deciphering a mere pullback following a steep decline or an inflection point, think what is the "smart money" doing? Simple. They've been selling to the dumb money for the last five weeks . Corporate buybacks continue to be the only demand in US equities. Fundamentally, the index is highly expensive versus historical valuations. At a 21.79 P/E, the SPX is over 5 points over its mean. It's over 11 points higher that the "sweet spot." Shiller P/E, which tracks 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings, is at 24.98 (also, historically expensive outside a recession). Furthermore, earnings are, indeed, rolling over (along with the business cycle) while real earnings growth is cratering at -14.5 percent. Last time that happen, the US saw a recession in the early-90s, the recession following the tech bubble and the 2008 financial crisis. See that here ! Aside from there lack of conviction with permabulls being scooped up in buyback fever, the index is about 160 points of its most recent low. Yesterday, price action closed at daily resistance at 1,978 and near the 50% Fib. level from this years epic start. If it can close above these two levels, the next level that is key is 2,020. If bulls overtake this level a potential retest of 2,071 is probable. However, this is how I believe it will go as the dollar continues to strengthen and the Fed continues to be out of place: A bear market scenario like those that followed the tech bubble and financial crisis would put the SPX near 1,078. This year, we've also seen SocGen's Albert Edwards forecast a potential 75% decline for the broader index. 17 months ago, I published a chart showing a whopping 71% potential decline in SPY from then current levels . Granted, this was merely based on historical references and calculation, but interesting nontheless. Will you get a chair when the music stops? Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
SP:SPX
by CommoditiesTrader
6