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Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 6/04Major Indexes were either range bound or weakened in Europe and the US. The DAX drifted lower from the open and the FTSE gave up most of the earlier gains into the close while the DOW ended slightly higher and the Nasdaq added to the previous sessions losses to end lower. Traders will be risk adverse coming into Easter and add to that the US employment data which could easily trigger increased volatility in a relatively thin market. I expect the Asian session to be range bound or a grind lower today. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue but it remains a balancing act for the Fed as they potentially come to the end of a rate rise cycle. With the OPEC Production cuts and resultant spike in Oil ( and clear potential for higher levels), bulls will have something to think about regarding inflation. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper Trade what you see not what you think! RELATED IDEAS TradeTheStructure
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 5/04Major Indexes moved lower as banking concerns weighed on the US along with fears of an economic slowdown. Employment data out in the US disappointed and pointed to a slowing jobs market which sets up for an interesting Payrolls release Friday. The USD took a hit, which supported Gold, as traders start thinking of a recession. Being the end of quarter, we may see a decent unwind of recent buyers but I expect this will be closer to the employment data release. Either way, I feel that major Indexes are looking heavy and may need a flush lower at the least, prior to any further upside. The RBA statement was happy to leave interest rates on hold even with inflation around 6.8%. Homeowners (especially recent buyers) were relieved although many still expect further rises to tame the high inflation. The ASX is expected to open relatively flat around the previous close while the Nikkei is set to open down 164 pts while the Hang Seng is closed for trading. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue but it remains a balancing act for the Fed as they potentially come to the end of a rate rise cycle. With the OPEC Production cuts and resultant spike in Oil ( and clear potential for higher levels), bulls will have something to think about regarding inflation. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below :- Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 4/04Major Indexes were mixed to start the new week in Europe and the US. The DAX was down while the UK100 was higher while over in the US the DOW was buoyed by a strong energy sector and the Nasdaq ended lower. We may see the markets drift in the coming sessions as they await the key US employment release and further direction for inflation and interest rates. The USD rallied from the start of the Asian session only to take a hit from the European open and give back all the gains plus more which triggered buying into gold. US bond yields eased as Manufacturing data came in slightly weaker than expected. The local Aussie market will be eagerly awaiting the RBA statement today at 2:30pm Syd time. RBA is expected to leave rates on hold. Asian markets are expected t open flat after a relatively range bound overnight session. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue but it remains a balancing act for the Fed as they potentially come to the end of a rate rise cycle. With the OPEC Production cuts and resultant spike in Oil, bulls will have something to think about regarding inflation. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below :- Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
CPER see brrrrLooking at the weekly chart with 200MA for CPER. I'm a fan of owning physical metals but CPER is a nice way for people to dabble in copper without actually getting bullion. The 200MA is now coinciding with the lower boll band. On a weekly chart I'd expect this to serve as rock solid support. I've mapped out the trajectory of the 200MA if it continues to uptrend like it has, and its represented as the bottom line of the white parallel channel. Price action around the green rectangle should present a great entrance opportunity, with a target to exit at the top of the parallel channel. Fundamentally I'm quite bullish on copper. It drives the green energy revolution and inventories are tapped out worldwide. Disputes between miners and governments are taking place and those never end quickly. Good luck out there, NFA.
AMEX:CPER
by ChartswithChip
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 30/03European markets rallied from the open which led to a strong open to the USD and a very bullish session. All indexes were up as stock traders went bargain hunting as they brush aside banking woes. For me inflation still needs to cool a lot further before bulls can take control and US consumers are not in a good way which may eventually weigh on markets again. Bond yields are also hinting at inflation concerns as they go higher while the USD is showing signs of basing for a leg up. The US was generally supported by a handful of big Tech stocks and banking shares. Asian markets are expected to open higher with the ASX set to open up 45pts. It will be interesting to see if the HSI has another squeeze lower or fires up the rockets again for a big move up. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue but it remains a balancing act for the Fed as they potentially come to the end of a rate rise cycle. The Fed will need to see hard evidence that inflation is coming under control first. A review of the price action from the European session and the US session where I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 29/03European markets gapped up and then saw a slow grind lower while the US could not take out the previous sessions highs and also moved lower into the close. The US was weighed down by big tech as inflation and rate rises are again the main focus. US Bond yields continued to press higher which weighed on tech stocks and the overall broader market. Elevated Consumer Confidence levels gave the market some confidence as the banking crisis starts to fade to the background for now. Asian markets are expected to open mixed with the ASX200 set to open down 25 points, the Nikkei set to open flat and the Hang Seng to open up over 300 points after a strong overnight session. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue but it remains a balancing act for the Fed as they potentially come to the end of a rate rise cycle. The Fed will need to see hard evidence that inflation is coming under control first. A review of the price action from the European session and the US session where I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 28/03European markets bounced back to finish higher and provide a stronger start to the US session. The US was mixed with the DOW higher while Tech was lower as traders now re-focus on inflation and higher interest rates. This can be seen through support into the USD and higher US Bond yields. As the banking crisis takes a backseat in the news, I expect traders will again be dealing with the prospects of further rate rises and may punish risk assets. Asian markets are expected to open slightly stronger with the ASX200 and Nikkei to open up while the Hang Seng may open flat and find further selling pressure after yesterdays choppy trading day. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue but it remains a balancing act for the Fed with the lingering concerns for the banking sector. A review of the price action from the European session and the US session where I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 27/03European markets were sold lower again on the back of banking fears and look ready to be pressured again at the start of the new week. The US opened weaker to follow on from Europe but found an intraday low and rallied into the close to brush aside the earlier weakness. The USD is back moving higher after breaking the recent downtrend leaving Gold to find some selling pressure and move lower. Copper is finding buyers while Oil fended off more selling pressure and is looking for a move higher. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue but it is now a balancing act for the Fed with the concerns for the Regional US Banks leading many to expect an interest rate pause. A review of the price action from the European session and the US session where I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 10/03A review of the price action from the European session and the US session. Major indexes again took a big hit lower in a risk off move ahead of the Key US data release on employment. Investors feel it is hard to take up the slack of higher prices when labour market is at capacity and the consumer becomes more reluctant to spend. Inflation and rate rise expectations kept the major indexes under pressure. The USD edged lower while US short term bond prices moved higher. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue and will weigh on share markets if the Fed, and other major central banks, can not get it under control....this all points to more 'risk off' into major share markets. I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 9/03A review of the price action from the European session and the US session. Major indexes were generally range bound to mildly higher. Inflation and rate rise expectations kept the major indexes under pressure with the focus now on the major US employment data release. The USD held onto the recent gains while US bonds held onto the recent lows. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue and will weigh on share markets if the Fed, and other major central banks, can not get it under control. I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
CBOT:ZT1!
by TradeTheStructure
Nutrien - Fertilizer Plays Into Growing Season, But a Coinflip2022's droughts and the Ukraine War put a lot of the world's food supply into question. Food commodity futures had a pretty bullish year. Since we're in mid-February and Western Hemisphere growing season is right upon us, fertilizer stocks are really worth paying attention to. Food scarcity is an even bigger issue with the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic smashing Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party over in Mainland China. The Party claims less than a hundred thousand people have died from COVID since this all began. But the Party is obviously lying about that, since China had 1.4 billion people and was the epicenter of the virus. America is on the other side of the ocean and lost 1.1+ million people. My point is that if China has really lost, say, 40 or 50 or 100 million people to the pandemic, the Party will need to import crops because there won't be all that many farmers around anymore to do the work of feeding the regime. This should be a bullish situation for food commodities and fertilizer. Nutrien is one of the market leaders, but this is a really difficult setup, a lot like flipping a coin, and here's why. 1. A monthly microgap at $64 that the algorithm spent a lot of effort keeping lows away from 2. Already a 40%+ retrace, but new lows haven't been set. 3. Daily bars show a perfect continuation of the downtrend line 4. Weekly bars show a sweep of the downtrend line 5. Earnings is Feb. 15 So, here's what I think at the moment. It's something of a gamble, but I think you can generate Alpha with puts on Nutrien before earnings. I say this, but realize that "generating Alpha" doesn't buy rice at the grocery store. It's like Sklansky Bucks in poker. Cool, you got +EV, but the donk took all your money. At least you can post a bad beat, I guess. In this case I think the play is not as unrealistic. Another fertilizer giant, CF Holdings, has earnings the same day: Feb. 15 postmarket, and started doing the bearish "orderblocking" thing two sessions ago These patterns before earnings are generally (emphasis on generally ) harbingers of a big gap down coming. The logic being that sell orders are being filled in anticipation of what smart money's big data analysis has already very accurately determined is about to happen Monday you get an FOMC member jawboning and Tuesday we get the dreaded CPI printout. It's a lot of volatility confluencing together in one big coagulate and if you guess right you win a cookie and if you guess wrong Wall Street guys will pay stripers with your money at 11:00 PM happy hour. In Nutrien's Q3 '22 financials the company told investors that they expected demand to be hot going into _fall_, and not spring, "Weather has been favorable in North America and we anticipate that the rapid pace of harvest will support strong fall ammonia demand and normal application rates of potash, phosphate and crop protection products." They also said, "We have lowered our global potash shipment forecast to between 60 and 62 million tonnes in 2022, largely due to the impact of higher-than-expected inventory and cautious buying in North America and Brazil during the second half of 2022." These two factors contrast against expectations from the company that expectations of higher 2023 commodity prices will lead to an increase in farm production, while noting that Ukraine will be down some 45% because of the war, notable because they were pretty much the world's wheat kings. Also noteworthy is Q3 was a big revenue/EPS miss for Nutrien. Estimates were 3.85 EPS and came in at $2.49. Revenue was $8.53B and came in at $7.91B. Q4 is a lot easier of a goalpost to hit, with estimates at $2.534 EPS and $7.392 Revenue. A miss here would (logically) definitely be a dumpster. So, ultimately, I think $110 Nutrien will come, and we may very well see this in the later part of '23, if not the early part of '24. But before then, it seems that the $60s are imminent. So, I'd rather do puts on CF than Nutrien into earnings as it stands, but staying flat and playing the consequences is a lot less risk. The two areas to watch for on Nutrien: 1. $63 to buy 2. $110 to sell It would be a big, bullish deal if Nutrien doesn't break this daily trendline and just dumps on earnings. $65 commons prices and 3-6+ month expiry call options should definitely be a fat return if you can ride it to the top.
NYSE:NTR
by LordWrymouth
2
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 3/03A review of the price action from the European session and US sessions which gave us some choppy price action but generally bullish from a weak open both in Europe and the US. To me, markets remain under pressure but bulls continue to provide support on pullbacks. There is no fear driven selloff which shows that bargain hunters still believe in a longer term move up. I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Have Gold and Silver bottomed? What do charts tell us?Gold has had a very healthy pullback into a critical zone. Last year it had a significant move down, took out all the lows around 1700, and bounced hard. Despite interest rates and the US Dollar being much higher than 1-2 years ago, Gold has held extremely well. After its rally since its November bottom, it finally pulled back and got into crucial support. To me, it's critical support because that's where the market topped before the last leg down, and a level around which it chopped for a while before breaking out at the beginning of the year. These levels are also crucial because they acted as resistance in 2011-2012, while this is an area the market traded at for a long time. Gold went in a relatively short period, from oversold, to overbought to back into a fair price (all on the weekly chart timeframe). It looks like it will aim for the 2100 level to sweep the double top that formed right after the Russian invasion, as the current structure doesn't look bearish. It feels pretty unlikely that we will get prices lower than 1700 before we take out the highs first. I would consider a close below 1700 a significantly bearish signal, but until then, I see the market as bullish. As it is now at the yearly pivot, it might have one last dip to fill some of the gaps lower and then start aiming for all the higher gaps, along with the double top, as such blatant double tops tend to be broken. Silver seems to be in a somewhat similar position. Silver has a double top created much more recently and has significant gaps to the upside. In my previous ideas, I discussed Silver going up to 24 and topping around that level. My longs worked, but I never shorted, and I am okay that I didn't because it took the trade a long time to work. Timing in trading matters, and you can't be in a short trade like this for too long. In this case, the market bottomed at massive support, bounced, had a healthy correction, and is now getting closer to support again. The chart is somewhat weird, but I doubt we will see much lower prices before seeing new highs. Both for Gold and Silver, I thought lower prices were possible, but until I see a liquidity crisis begin, I can't call for much lower prices. Both formed excellent bases, especially Silver. Gold to 1300-1400 and Silver to 14-16$ before going higher isn't impossible. However, given what's happening with inflation and the financial system, I doubt it will happen. China and Russia are buying Gold; long-term inflation won't get under control, and the risk of a significant financial crisis is looming. I would say that silver doesn't seem to be in a good situation, mainly due to its industrial demand being heavily impacted and the fact that central banks would only buy gold, not silver. So what's the bull case here for gold and silver? 1. Liquidity cycle turned up. Dollar and rates will come down while money will keep flowing. 2. Tensions among countries leading countries/investors to neutral alternatives. 3. Hedges in case of escalating crises of all sorts. It's possible that due to all the material and labor shortages, investing in stocks isn't ideal. Investing in commodities like Copper might be a better alternative, given their importance in a rapidly changing global economy. Gold and Silver might do very well in an environment of many negative changes but might not outperform some commodities that face major shortages. Below we can see the nice bounce of Copper off support and its clean reclaim of the Yearly pivot. For example, Copper could be one of the great beneficiaries of the transition to the green economy and the Chinese reopening.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BitcoinMacro