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Copper

COPPER: 4month Support on the 1D MA200. Bullish.Copper is trading inside a Channel Down pattern that is approaching the bottom of a Rising Megaphone pattern. The price is almost neutral (RSI = 44.491, MACD = -0.036, ADX = 22.406), stuck between the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200. As the RSI is on the S1 Zone as well, the conditions for a longterm buy are pilling up. First we target the Channel Down top (TP = 4.1000) and if we get a daily closing over it, continue buying to R1 (TP = 4.3500). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
COMEX:HG1!Long
by InvestingScope
9
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 9/05European and US markets were relatively tame as traders focus now turns to the CPI data release ahead of the US open Wednesday. The USD found support to move up while Copper and Oil also moved higher on expectations for a lift in demand. Gold edged higher although is showing signs of selling pressure. Expecting a flat open for Asian markets as the Nikkei, ASX200 and Hang Seng were largely rangebound in overnight trading. With stronger economic data comes stickier/resilient inflation so bulls may be getting ahead of themselves as the US Fed will have to think about another rate rise if the CPI continues to show strength. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 8/05Stronger than expected employment data in the US sent bulls into a frenzy and pushed share markets higher into the weekend as recession fears eased. On the flip side, a resilient economy will flow over into inflation and mean that inflation will stay higher for longer and put further upside pressure on interest rates. US Bond yields spiked as to did the USD while Gold nosedived off highs. Copper and Oil found some love from higher expected demand. Expecting a strong open for Asian markets with the ASX200 to open up 70 points, the Hang Seng to open up 130 pts while the Nikkei may open relatively flat thanks to Fridays US market rally. With stronger economic data comes stickier/resilient inflation so bulls may be getting ahead of themselves as the US Fed will have to think about another rate rise if economic data continues to show strength. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 5/05US indexes again came under pressure after European Indexes went lower for the session. Concerns over US regional banks and contagion into the banking sector weighed heavily on the US open. The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points as expected to follow in the footsteps of the US Fed Reserve and the RBA. Traders may be more contained today ahead of the key US employment data just prior to the US open. Expecting a weaker open for Asian markets with the ASX200 to open down 25/30 points, the Hang Seng to open relatively flat while the Nikkei will still have to wait to play catchup as the underlying index is closed until Monday. With Global banks still raising interest rates and economies potentially slowing down, I expect bulls will have life more difficult in the near term. Focus will be on economic data to see how the US economy is fairing. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
2
Copper :Short Term DOWN/MID TERM LONGMID TERM LONG The price of copper has made some headway after falling to its lowest level since November 2020 on 15 July 2022. The metal started 2023 at $3.84 and has risen 6.7% to trade at around $4.10 as of the time of writing on 14 April, although base metal prices have retreated significantly since the record highs seen in March last year. Metals markets remain highly volatile in the face of macroeconomic pressures. The price of copper came under particular pressure last year due to fears of a global recession, weaker demand from Chinese manufacturing giants and China’s zero-Covid policy, a higher US dollar, and a mass sell-off on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Over the closing months of 2022, however, the metal began to recover as investors once again flocked to cyclical metals in response to a lower USD and rising prospects for a reopening in China. Copper retreats from record highs The price trend of copper was choppy at the start of the year, as pandemic-related lockdowns across several regions in China raised concerns about a slowdown in economic growth just as industrial production had ramped up following the Lunar New Year holiday. Manufacturing plants in Changchun suspended operations and construction work was halted in Shanghai, reducing consumption in the world’s largest copper market. At the end of February, traders weighed the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on commodities and stockpiled industrial metals. On rising demand and tightening supply, prices for copper – as well as aluminium, tin and zinc – reached record highs in March. The COMEX copper price chart shows that the metal climbed by 130% from the March 2020 low at the start of Covid-19 lockdowns to trade up to HKEX:5 a pound in early March 2022. In addition to the recovery in demand after the pandemic, there are several long-term demand trends that have been supportive to copper. The transition to clean energy requires larger quantities of copper, which is used for wiring in electric vehicles (EVs) and solar panels. Higher crude oil and gas prices are raising operational costs for copper producers, but also accelerating the energy transition and in turn increasing copper demand. The pandemic also saw a boom in demand for manufactured goods, including electronics and household appliances, as consumers turned to home entertainment and home improvement during lockdowns. What’s more, while demand has climbed, output from copper mines has not kept pace, tightening the supply balance. Aggressive interest rate rises by central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to tackle 40-year-high inflation have increased concerns among traders that the global economy could be facing a hard landing. At its 31 January – 1 February policy meeting, the Fed opted to moderate the pace of rate hikes, lifting its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 4.50%-4.75% range. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America recently said they expect the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three more times this year, lifting their estimates after data pointed to persistent inflation and a resilient labor market. "In light of the stronger growth and firmer inflation news, we are adding a 25bp (basis points) rate hike in June to our Fed forecast, for a peak funds rate of 5.25%-5.5%," Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a note dated Thursday. The Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for China edged up to to 49.2 in January 2023 from a three-month low of 49.0 in December, coming in below market forecasts of 49.5. However, the reading marked the sixth straight month of declining factory activity, amid sluggish operations after an abrupt shift in COVID policy. Output fell the least in 5 months while a fall in new orders eased. Buying levels dropped at the slowest pace in 3 months; while foreign demand remained weak, falling for the sixth month. “The pandemic continued to take a toll on the economy in January,” said Dr Wang Zhe, an economist at Caixin Insight Group. “Supply and demand weakened, overseas demand was sluggish, employment declined, and logistics hadn’t fully recovered, while the quantity of purchases shrank, inventories dropped, and manufacturers faced growing pressure on profitability. But optimism in the sector continued to improve as businesses expected a post-Covid economic recovery.” Zhe added: "Since Covid controls were optimized at the end of 2022, China has seen a surge in Covid infections. According to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the numbers of fever clinic visits nationwide and people hospitalized with Covid peaked in late December and early January, respectively, and have declined since then." "After being hit by the latest wave of Covid infections, the primary focus of economic work should be on accelerating economic recovery and promoting normalized production and social orders. Improving expectations, restoring confidence, increasing income, expanding consumption, and stimulating domestic demand will be among the priorities. There is still uncertainty in how the pandemic will develop, so full preparation should be made to deal with the next wave of the virus. China will still need to effectively coordinate pandemic containment with economic and social development." In the most recent Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI press release, the report highlighted the impact of Covid restrictions on the manufacturing sector, stressing that market optimism was at it highest in close to two years: "The return to more normal business operations, and hopes that the economy and new business will rebound, helped to lift business confidence at the start of the year. Notably, the degree of optimism was the highest recorded since April 2021." In the latest copper news, LME on-warrant copper stocks have fallen the most since 8 December, according to data from the exchange cited by ING Group's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey. On-warrant stockpiles fell by 7.5% to 51,800 tonnes, with declines coming from warehouses in Germany and the Netherlands. First Quantum will suspend copper ore processing at its Panama mine on 23 February, according to a report from Reuters, due to limited storage capacity at the site. The Maritime Authority of Panama banned loading copper at Cobre Panama’s port over a certification issue in December last year. The mine accounts for 1.5% of global copper production. Investors are continuing to monitor the extent of improved Chinese purchasing after the country’s economic reopening, as new home sales grew for a third straight week in 16 major cities. Industrial demand is also expected to pick up as the government is set to announce further stimulus measures at its National People’s Congress in March. On the supply side, a series of production and export disruptions by major producers in South and Central America compounded concerns about low inventories in the US and Europe, adding to worries that copper markets could be heading into a severe deficit. The metal was trading at around $4.15 per pound as of 21 February 2023, down from its record high of $4.27 on 26 January and tracking the increase in other base metals amid persistent supply concerns and strong demand expectations. It is also worth noting the market remains well above the March 2020 low of $2.17. The copper price history shows the market has been trending higher since 2018, turning around an extended decline that started in 2010. What is the long-term copper outlook? Do analysts expect prices to rise or fall? We look at some of the latest copper price forecasts and analysis below. Copper price forecast: Should you buy, hold or sell? On 21 February 2022, analysis of copper on the Comex exchange in the US by brokerage Zaner was hesitant to show a bullish forecast for the short-term price trend of copper: “Despite a risk off vibe in financial and many physical commodities markets this morning, the copper market has extended last week's sharp recovery move and nearly tested the February high. While the COT report has been suspended due to hacking, the last spec positioning report showed a relatively low net long with the market currently sitting $0.05 below the level where that positioning was last measured. Apparently, the copper trade is unconcerned about the buildup of Chinese domestic physical supply and has also seen signs that China continues to utilize scrap copper to produce cathode rods. In fact, Bloomberg overnight indicated that domestic copper stocks inside China added 4500 metric tons over the weekend. However, the current copper trade is willing to discount the 2023 trend of higher Shanghai copper stocks and even higher regional copper inventories in China." "Initially March copper has found resistance at $4.20, but the market from last week's lows has gained $0.22 and has managed those gains in the face of distinct supply building inside China. If it were not for the risk off sentiment and looming rate hike threats from the US, we would be more upbeat toward near-term copper price action. Nonetheless, the strength of the market looks to lift prices above $4.20 and consolidate with resistance seen at $4.30." Capital.com analyst Piero Cingari highlighted the metal’s price dependence on the situation in China in his copper price outlook for 2023: “Copper’s chances of hitting the $4.00 zone and shattering it increase the sooner China announces an economic openness. $4.62 might be an intriguing bullish target for the first half of 2023, as it would represent a 78.6% retracement of the range of 2022. “If the scenario doesn’t play out as expected and copper retraces to the downside, the $3.50–$3.58 support area, if reached, may likely reinstate bull buying action on dips. Copper traded at these levels when Chinese authorities first announced efforts to ease Covid restrictions in November." “A fall to $3.50 or below would signal a complete reversal of Chinese authorities’ attempts to unlock the economy and a broader dollar surge on the basis of fresh hawkish fears from the Fed, and thus a retest of such levels seems to have fewer probabilities at this time.” In a comment to Mining.com, independent consultant Robin Bhar said: “There’s high-level data showing that things are beginning to stir in China, but when it comes to infrastructure and construction, it will take a bit more time. There’s good dip buying around to support the underside. People are taking the opportunity to build longs, whether tactically as we go into Q2 or strategically because of the green energy transition.” Saxo Bank Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen recently told CNBC that industrial metals such as copper, aluminum and lithium would undoubtedly benefit from the “enormous political capital” being invested in achieving the “green transformation.” “The new geopolitical environment will mean a massive boost for the European defence industry which should see double-digit growth rates close to 20 percent per year over the next economic cycle as the European continent doubles its military spending in percentage of GDP." Hansen added that the metal's strong start to the year – copper futures have gained close to 10% year-to-date – are due to “technical and speculative traders frontrunning an expected pickup in demand from China in the coming months”. “Once the initial rally is over, the hard work begins to support those gains, with an underlying rise in physical demand needed to sustain the rally, not least considering the prospect of increased supply in 2023 as several projects go live. “Overall we see copper settle into a $3.75 to $4.75 range during the coming months before eventually breaking higher to reach a new record sometime during the second half.” Analysis by Trading Economics also leaned towards the bearish side on the future price, expecting copper to trade at $3.96 a pound by the end of the current quarter and $3.70 in 12 months’ time. Algorithm-based forecasting site Wallet Investor was more positive regarding the longer-term market outlook, predicting the price could rise over the coming years. The website’s copper price forecast for 2023 estimated that the price could reach $4.162 by the end of the year, while its copper price forecast for 2025 suggested a copper price target of $4.985. On 14 March 2023, analysts at Fitch Solutions revised up their forecasts, suggesting copper could average HKEX:8 ,800 a tonne in 2023 and HKEX:8 ,000 in 2024. “Our increased copper assumptions for 2023-2025 reflect our expectation of a tight balance in the market. China’s re-opening will support growing short-term demand as China accounts for 55% of global refined copper consumption. Medium- and long-term demand for copper is supported by the energy transition. Still, mine underperformance in Chile, political protests in Peru and recent issues in the smelting sector may constrain copper supply.” they said. Analysts at Canada’s TD Securities see the potential for further downside, writing in a copper price analysis: “Timing a market squeeze is an art, particularly amid poor liquidity conditions. Under the crushing weight of a collapse in commodity demand, copper prices have slashed through every support level.” In its October 2022 commodities forecast, the World Bank expected prices to decline over the next few years, from £8,700 a tonne in 2022 to HKEX:7 ,300 in 2023 and HKEX:7 ,361 in 2024. Citi previously predicted in its copper price forecast for 2030 that the metal could trade at HKEX:10 ,756 a tonne by the end of the decade, with a bull case of HKEX:14 ,341 and a bear case of HKEX:8 ,963. When considering any market predictions, it’s important to keep in mind that commodity prices are highly volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict where prices will be at any given time in the future. You should always do your own research. Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future returns, and never invest any money that you cannot afford to lose.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by DaveBrascoFX
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 3/05Major Indexes in Europe and the US came under pressure as traders went risk off. New banking concerns for the US weighed on the action along with worse than expected economic data. Traders will be focused now on the FOMC rate statement to see what the Fed has to say about inflation. Expectations are that the Fed will raise rates 0.25% and potentially signal one more rise....as long as inflation data comes down further. US key employment data out Friday will also be a focus for the remainder of the week. Expecting a weaker open for Asian markets after the selloff into the overnight session. Expecting the ASX200 to open down 35/40 points while the Hang Seng to open down 180 points. With a resilient US economy, sticky inflation is the big issue and also a slowing economy. Traders will be eager to hear what the US Fed has to say in the FOMC statement. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
GOLD, SILVER, COPPER. Is the latter leading the way?On this 1D chart we see Gold (XAUUSD) against Silver (XAGUSD) and Copper (HG1!) displayed by the orange, blue and black trend-lines respectively. There is a lot of worrying lately with Gold's pull-back since the mid-April High. Even though Gold and Silver have made Higher Highs, Copper has been declining since since its late January High. On this chart we see that Copper has been a leading indicator to the other two in the past 2 years. When it started rising earlier, the other two followed shortly after. Similarly when is started falling and the others lagged, they followed suit. As mentioned, Copper has started falling in the past 4 months while the other two lag and made Higher Highs. Does this mean we are about to see Gold and Silver start a strong decline? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
3
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 27/04Major Indexes in the US and Europe moved lower as concerns about the banking sector and contagion (seeing more regional banks come under fire) reared its ugly head again. First Republic Bank dumped 30% after reporting a 40% drop in deposits which pushed the broader market lower while Tech found support after some good earnings beats brought in the bargain hunters. The USD found some buyers through the US session to reverse earlier losses which put pressure on Oil, Gold and Copper. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue but it remains a balancing act for the Fed. Traders will now have to deal with recession talk and further banking concerns which will hamper bulls and stoke selloff fears. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 26/04Major Indexes in the US moved lower led by the Nasdaq while Europe is expected to play catchup when they open for the coming session and open weaker. Sentiment turned sour after some key companies either missed the mark on earnings or guided down while economic data came in weaker than expected triggering recession concerns again. The action was 'risk off' which could continue in coming sessions as both Gold and USD rallied on a safe haven bid and Copper and Oil (focused on demand) fell. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue but it remains a balancing act for the Fed. Traders will now have to deal with recession talk which will hamper bulls and stoke selloff fears. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 24/04Major Indexes edged higher Friday into the weekend with both Europe and the US posting minor gains. The US had economic data out that came in stronger than expected and sent US Bond Yields higher to add further fuel to the interest rate rise narrative. Share market traders have been in a holding pattern awaiting a big week of earnings this week in the US as some big tech names will release results and guidance. Expect that the tug of war between good and bad economic and earnings data will continue to see tough markets this week. Longer term, I still feel that share markets are looking heavy and expect to see some risk off moves or at least the market to cap bullish moves. I either expect sticky inflation or expectations for a recession to weigh on markets. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue but it remains a balancing act for the Fed. Traders are continuing to anticipate the end to the rate rising cycle and may be wrong again. If the Fed stops too soon, then shares will rally and put pressure back on inflation. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 20/04Major Indexes were generally flat to lower both in Europe and the US as traders digest the UK CPI print and what may be in store for US inflation. The UK saw core CPI out at 6.2% vs 6.0% expected which is unchanged from the previous release. The BOE will not be happy with the figure as inflation remains high and they will need to raise rates further. This sets up for an interesting US FOMC in a few weeks as US CPI shows sticky inflation. Longer term, I still feel that share markets are looking heavy and we may see some risk off moves which will pressure major indexes lower in the near term. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue but it remains a balancing act for the Fed. Traders are continuing to anticipate the end to the rate rising cycle and may be wrong again. If the Fed stops too soon, then shares will rally and put pressure back on inflation. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
copper longBuy: 4.730 or lower Stop: 4.550 Notes: maybe copper will catch up to other metals The model: The Ingenuity Trading Model is a Geometric Markov Model with specific inputs related to Price, Time, Volume , and Volatility. The model attempts to predict local minimums and maximums in price on a daily and weekly basis. A fancy way of saying a trading system that detects specific patterns in price, time, volume, and volatility and indicates whether to buy or sell. On winning trades after 1 day take at least ⅓ of the position off and move stop to breakeven
COMEX:HG1!Long
by IngenuityTrading
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 18/04Major Indexes were relatively flat overnight as traders digest US earnings and the continued rally into Bond yields. Inflation remains the main focus along with Company Guidance over the coming weeks. The USD continued the move up which pressured commodities and USD denominated currencies. For now, traders are happy to remain risk on into shares although they are unwilling to add further risk into portfolios which to me suggests a swing lower....especially if yields continue higher. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue but it remains a balancing act for the Fed. Traders are continuing to anticipate the end to the rate rising cycle and may be wrong again. If the Fed stops too soon, then shares will rally and put pressure back on inflation. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 6/04Major Indexes were either range bound or weakened in Europe and the US. The DAX drifted lower from the open and the FTSE gave up most of the earlier gains into the close while the DOW ended slightly higher and the Nasdaq added to the previous sessions losses to end lower. Traders will be risk adverse coming into Easter and add to that the US employment data which could easily trigger increased volatility in a relatively thin market. I expect the Asian session to be range bound or a grind lower today. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue but it remains a balancing act for the Fed as they potentially come to the end of a rate rise cycle. With the OPEC Production cuts and resultant spike in Oil ( and clear potential for higher levels), bulls will have something to think about regarding inflation. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper Trade what you see not what you think! RELATED IDEAS TradeTheStructure
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 5/04Major Indexes moved lower as banking concerns weighed on the US along with fears of an economic slowdown. Employment data out in the US disappointed and pointed to a slowing jobs market which sets up for an interesting Payrolls release Friday. The USD took a hit, which supported Gold, as traders start thinking of a recession. Being the end of quarter, we may see a decent unwind of recent buyers but I expect this will be closer to the employment data release. Either way, I feel that major Indexes are looking heavy and may need a flush lower at the least, prior to any further upside. The RBA statement was happy to leave interest rates on hold even with inflation around 6.8%. Homeowners (especially recent buyers) were relieved although many still expect further rises to tame the high inflation. The ASX is expected to open relatively flat around the previous close while the Nikkei is set to open down 164 pts while the Hang Seng is closed for trading. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue but it remains a balancing act for the Fed as they potentially come to the end of a rate rise cycle. With the OPEC Production cuts and resultant spike in Oil ( and clear potential for higher levels), bulls will have something to think about regarding inflation. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below :- Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure