Copper
Copper's momentum has changed.XCUUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 4.099 (stop at 4.139)
Our bespoke support of 4.130 has been clearly broken.
Offers ample risk/reward to sell at the market.
We look for losses to be extended today.
Short term bias has turned negative.
Our profit targets will be 3.999 and 3.979
Resistance: 4.130 / 4.160 / 4.185
Support: 4.075 / 4.030 / 3.990
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Copper Is Simple (Bullish)Massive breakout on Copper
Wait for the pullback and green shade on the Jupu to buy
Copper to see a higher correction.XCUUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 4.128 (stop at 4.168)
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
A higher correction is expected.
A break of the recent low at 4.130 should result in a further move lower.
50 2hour EMA is at 4.129.
Bearish divergence is expected to cap gains.
Our profit targets will be 4.028 and 4.018
Resistance: 4.200 / 4.223 / 4.250
Support: 4.165 / 4.150 / 4.130
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
HG1! Potential for Bullish Continuation Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 3.9335, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 3.7085, where the recent low is. Take profit will be at 4.4555, where the 88% Fibonacci line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Copper (HG) Rallies in Nesting Impulse According to Elliott WaveCopper (HG) rally from 9.28.2022 low is unfolding as a nesting impulse Elliott Wave structure. A nest is a series of 1-2-((i))-((ii)) which is an extended version of an impulsive structure. Up from 9.28.2022 low, wave 1 ended at 3.96 and wave 2 pullback ended at 3.5410. Wave 3 is currently in progress with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 3.929. The 1-hour chart below shows pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 3.708. The metal has extended higher again in wave ((iii)).
Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 3.865, and pullback in wave ii ended at 3.7985. The metal extends higher again in wave iii towards 3.988, pullback in wave iv ended at 3.932, and final leg wave v ended at 4.044 which completed wave (i). Pullback in wave (ii) then ended at 3.987. The metal extends higher again in wave (iii) towards 4.186 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 4.129. Expect wave (v) higher to complete soon with a few more high and that should complete wave ((iii)) in higher degree. Afterwards, the metal should pullback in wave ((iv)) to correct cycle from 1.4.2023 low before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 3.708 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
COpper and other futuresCommodity traders are pumping everything, gold, oil, copper, cattle, hogs, everything I checked.
If they continue to do so, it will force the Fed to go .5% regardless of CPI. A Fed member speaks every day next week, at least one of them will probably say something.
Not as bullish as I was earlier today. Besides, CPI of 6.5% is still above 2% target.
They can't undo QE because they're under water on all of their MBS, so they're slowly letting them expire. I think interest rates will have to remain high until their balance sheet goes down. Take a look at this chart (and now you know why I keep calling Powell stupid):
www.federalreserve.gov
Copper rally to be capped.XCUUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 4.185 (stop at 4.230)
With signals for sentiment at overbought extremes, the rally could not be extended.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Early optimism is likely to lead to gains although extended attempts higher are expected to fail.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Our profit targets will be 4.075 and 4.055
Resistance: 4.160 / 4.187 / 4.250
Support: 4.150 / 4.080 / 4.030
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Fibonacci Retracement on CopperCOMEX:HG1!
Fibonacci Retracement applied on daily timeframe of COMEX:HG1! suggests that it will rally towards 4.47 after crossing 4.16 as strong candlesticks are being made.
Tracking the China reopening basket: HSI, Copper, KRW and AUDSince early November, when China initially hinted at lifting statewide Covid restrictions, a basket tracking assets linked to the Chinese reopening story has surged by 22%.
In the last 11 weeks, the China reopening basket, which is equally weighted with copper , Korean won , Australian dollar , and the Hang Seng index , has outperformed a global stock market (MSCI ACWI index) benchmark considerably.
The China reopening portfolio has gained 22.3% versus a 6.8% gain of the MSCI All-Country World index since November 1st. Because the total volatility of the China reopening basket has been lower (19.2% compared to 21.8%), the Sharpe ratio has been even more positively skewed (9.61 vs 1.89).
The Hang Seng index, which has climbed by 45% since November, has been the portfolio's best contributor with a weighted return of 11%, followed by copper with a weighted return of 5.3%.
XCUUSD ( COPPER / USD ) Commodities Analysis 10/01/2023Fundamental Analysis:
china is the biggest copper consumer and as of now we can see the most of its manufacturing plants and factories are getting shut due to Protests and ongoing havoc in the country.
DXY is very bullish which can go up to 130 and ultimately will result in the more price fall in the commodity sections.
World economic Crisis and Supply chain Disturbance which will lead to the Manufacturing Halt.
Technical Analysis:
Bearish Divergence of Price and MACD,
Hidden Bearish Divergence Formation in the process which is a very strong Bearish Trend continuation sign.
Nest Resistance and Potential Pivot Point 9500$
lower Support at 8450%
Bearish Targets: 5800$, 5250$, 4300$
#DR copper broken solid resistance and back above 200dmaHard to be bearish on global markets when probably the biggest proxy for growth is showing really strong technical action. Dr Copper has broken out its triangle which has kept price action constrained and under the 200dma for the better part of 2 months. It has now also broken above the 200day moving average with higher targets in play
HG1! Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 3.9335, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 3.7085, where the recent low is. Take profit will be at 4.4555, where the 88% Fibonacci line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short-Term Short Trade in CopperAs copper futures might technically drop the leveraged short ETF on copper will rise ...
HG1! Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 3.9280, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 3.7085, where the recent swing low is. Take profit will be at 4.2575, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Copper going for itLooks like it could make a run here above this level and a breakout from the ascending triangle.
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop
Type: Bearish Drop
Resistance: 3.9600
Pivot: 3.6885
Support: 3.5545
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to head back down towards the pivot at 3.6885 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Alternative scenario: Price may possibly head towards the resistance at 3.9600, where the previous swing high is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Silver is gearing for a move up, but is it ready?Silver had a huge move up in 2020, but that was all it managed to do back then. Since its first significant peak in August 2020, it went sideways and started declining. Silver was in a big bear market since 2011, then entered an accumulation range, and then had its capitulation move in March 2020. Then with all the fiscal stimulus, it skyrocketed, but most capital flowed into crypto and stocks, not precious metals. As inflation remains high and interest rates could be near their peak, and investment in metal miners has gone down a lot over the last decade, this precious metal that seems to have lost its shine might be ready to shine again.
It looks like silver had a very healthy pullback into the top band of its accumulation range. Now resistance seems to have turned into support, and the market could head toward 24$ in the next few months. The truth is that I don't believe that the market has fully bottomed yet, although it could very well have, and that eventually, it will have on final leg down towards 16$ and bottom there. The main reason I think that has to do with how the market bottom is that there are two double bottoms around 17-18, and there is a little 'gap' at 16. Essentially I would like to see the market test 16$ because I want to see it thoroughly test that untested breakout, the Yearly S3 Pivot, and the Volume Profile Point of Control.
Another reason that I think the market will go down there again is that I expect a major deflationary episode to take place in 2023, one that has the potential to create a liquidity squeeze (risk asset collapse) that would affect precious metals too. In my opinion, the current move up in Gold, Copper, Silver, etc., mostly has to do with low production/inventories of metals, while demand seems to have bottomed in the short term. Eventually, the market will get crushed again, but I think the bounce has legs for now.
Therefore it would make sense to look for longs in the 16-20$ zone and take profits in the 21.7-24$ area. Shorting 24$ might be a good idea, but I would prefer to watch how the price action develops before I step in.
Update on my previous copper ideasDespite Copper falling 38% from its ATHs, we still haven't seen deflation, even though inflation seems to have peaked for now. The inflation story doesn't seem to be over; even inflation moderates and goes close to or below 2%. The big problem right now is that the Copper inventories are extremely low and that the demand for Copper seems to be increasing because of all the green technologies that are being developed. Therefore despite the high-interest rates and the drop in the money supply globally (reduction in overall liquidity, along with a strong dollar), it is possible to see Copper rally higher from here. With the recent drop in the dollar and the potential peak in the USD and short-term interest rates, the market may have bottomed.
Of course, this isn't the only reason the market has bottomed. Copper fell a lot, and it hit critical support. They seem to have bottomed at their previous significant highs along with Silver and reversed the upside. I don't think the final bottom is in, although it could be. In my opinion, the market is heading towards 4$ in the short term. Still, in a long time, it is directed towards 2.7$, and maybe even towards 1.6-1.9$ if we get the short-term deflationary collapse, I expect. After the failure, I think new ATHs will come, as Central Banks and Governments globally will print insane amounts of money to save their economies from collapsing.
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish Rise
Resistance: 3.9600
Pivot: 3.6885
Support: 3.5545
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 3.9600, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the pivot at 3.6885 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
The Rise and Fall of Chinese YuanCME: USD/Offshore RMB ( CME:CNH1! ), COMEX: Copper Futures ( COMEX:HG1! )
Two weeks ago, China abruptly overhauled its strict Covid policy that had been in place for nearly three years. Lockdowns, health codes, massive testing, and domestic travel restrictions are no longer enforced. “The world changed overnight,” said one of my friends.
From Zero-COVID to “Lying flat”, the literal translation of a Chinese term which means doing the bare minimum to get by, this is a 180-degree policy reversal. It brought overwhelming joy and fear at the same time. People rejoiced over a long-overdue normalization of life and work but feared for surges of widespread Covid infections. I am sending my prayers and hope that a weaker Omicron virus would result in less severe health issues.
China’s reopening could have significant implications to its economy and to financial markets. Today, I focus on its currency, its stock market, and the global commodities markets.
The chart above illustrates how the Chinese Yuan (aka RMB) has moved up and down during the 2-year trade friction and 3-year Covid:
• In 2018, President Trump imposed import duties on thousands of goods originated from China. This sparked a Tariff War that met with retaliation from China.
• As tension escalated and tariffs raised from both sides, the USD/RMB exchange rate depreciated 12%, from 6.28 in March 2018 to 7.16 in December 2019.
• After nearly two years, the two countries signed a First Phase Trade Agreement in January 2020. The Yuan rallied 4% to 6.87.
• Two weeks later, Covid broke out in Wuhan, the capitol city of Hubei Province in central China. It shocked the world. As the pandemic quickly spread all over China and to the rest of the world, RMB depreciated back to 7.16 in May 2020.
• As China’s Zero-Covid policy quickly restored its manufacturing, the “World’s Factory” ramped up exports to other countries which were still shut down by the pandemic. The Yuan rallied again, all the way back to 6.3 by February 2022.
• The citywide lockdown in Shanghai, China’s largest city, was a turning point. Yuan nosedived to a record low of 7.3.
• Finally, the opening of Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s 20th Congress in October and November signaled a change of courses. With Zero-Covid ending a month after, the Yuan is now back up to around 6.95.
In my view, China’s relations with the West are the key driver of RMB/USD exchange rate. When China embraces the world, Yuan goes up. When it decouples from it, Yuan goes down. As the time of writing, RMB has rebounded 5% in 2 months. I expect Yuan to further appreciate in 2023.
China’s Stock Market
China’s Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) index moved sideways. The five-year cumulative return is -7%. This highlighted the severe impacts delivered by both the Trade friction and Covid on the Chinese economy. By comparison, the S&P 500 yields +80% for the first four years. Even after the big selloff in 2022, its 5-year return is +45%.
We are witnessing initial chaos from reopening and Covid surges. After time goes by, I expect China’s stock market to rebound in 2023. For certain, the Chinese economy faces a lot of headwinds. However, massive bailout from the State is on its way. Next year is a year for stock picking. State-run enterprises are in a better position to receive government stimulus disproportionally. My suggestion is to follow the money. Keep an eye on industries and companies which benefit the most from State economic policy.
Commodities Will Get a Lifting
China’s reopening is welcoming news for commodities. Take CME Copper Futures (HG) as an example. Since the past summer, the base metal had been beaten down by 20% amid the market fear of recession. However, it moved above its 50-day MA in November, as the end of CCP’s 20th Party Congress signaled changing courses.
I am also bullish for agricultural commodities. With people going back to work and regaining income, consumption for corn, soybean, wheat, pork, beef, and poultry shall increase next year. This is good news for big exporters such as the US, Brazil, and Argentina.
Takeaways:
1) CME CNH Futures may continue to pull back due to US dollar softening and China reopening. Please note that CNH is quoted RMB per USD. If the Yuan appreciates against the Dollar, futures price would fall. Therefore, if you are bullish on Yuan, shorting CNH is the proper action.
2) SSE stock index may rebound, but we are better off picking individual stocks benefiting from government stimulus. For investors who can’t trade China’s stock market, you could search for Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, or their American Depository Receipts (ADR) listed in the US markets.
3) Copper (HG) continues to weigh in between demand reduction from global recession and potential demand increase from China’s reopening. In my opinion, recession has already been priced in. The end of Zero-Covid would be an extra booster. Copper could erase its 2022 loss once China factories are pumping out products once again.
I wish everyone a Happy New Year.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish Rise
Resistance: 3.9600
Pivot: 3.6885
Support: 3.5545
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for HG1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 3.9600, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the pivot at 3.6885 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
