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Copper

Industrial Metals: Copper the king of green metals!I have a long-term positive outlook on the industrial metal sector given the increase in demand towards the electrification of the world. I expect a dampening in shorter-term prospect however a renewed surge to fresh record high's in the new year by miners around the world, most notably from Central and South America as well as Africa. This will lead to copper gaining momentum due to electrification of the world (Less dependency on Russia). Massive amounts of new copper is needed in the years ahead for the power grids to cope, we are already seeing producers like Chile, the world’s biggest supplier of copper, struggling to meet production targets. China’s slowdown is viewed as temporary and the economic boost through stimulus measures is likely to focus on infrastructure and electrification—both areas that will require industrial metals. I have chosen Freeport-McMoRan Inc. as my trade idea, often called Freeport. Freeport is an American mining company based in the Freeport-McMoRan Center, in Phoenix, Arizona. The company is the world's largest producer of molybdenum, is a major copper producer and operates the world's largest gold mine, the Grasberg mine in Papua, Indonesia. FCX is looking strong with a strong financial situation and growing Inventories at good levels. Copper demand is increasing, electrification around the world will continue into the future.
NYSE:FCXLong
by JaredBooysen
1
Copper analysis and ideas: Will bears come back?Copper prices may remain under pressure in the coming months due to investors' apprehension about China's growth prospects in the wake of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which disappointed the market. Since September, copper prices have fluctuated within a relatively narrow range (3.2-3.6) after the earlier sharp declines occurred this year. The long-term case for copper remains strong, as it is a key metal for the energy transition and global inventories are currently very low. However, one of the main challenges it faces in the near future is its dependence on China’s economic growth. The brown metal will remain under pressure unless China announces new growth-friendly economic policies to counteract the predicted slowdown in the country’s economy. However, the latest China Party Congress appears to prefer fostering sustainable growth and giving more importance to inequality, national security, and ideological matters. Copper bull markets have historically coincided with periods of extraordinary global growth, driven primarily by China. We have now reached a crossroads in that regard, and if China is unable to maintain high and consistent economic growth, copper will have to wait for a new global wave of coordinated investments toward the development of renewables and green energy. However, given the issues with inflation and rising interest rates that we are currently facing, it may still be years before the transition fully takes hold on a global scale. This could take the price of copper subdued for longer. When we look at the daily chart, we can see that some bearish pressure was forming near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2022 range. Also the 50-day moving average has been a quite strong dynamic resistance later. The technical picture remains overall on the bearish foot, and copper needs to clear the 2022 trendline at around $3.75 and then cross the psychological $4.00 mark before materially inverting the downtrend.
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by Capitalcom
SCCO:Correction or Reversal?SOUTHERN COPPER CORPORATION Short Term - We look to Buy a break of 48.98 (stop at 45.51) Price action produced another positive week, last week. Trading within the Wedge formation. The bias is to break to the upside. A higher correction is expected. Our profit targets will be 58.22 and 60.00 Resistance: 48.90 / 60.00 / 80.00 Support: 46.80 / 42.00 / 34.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:SCCOLong
by VantageMarkets
Copper Futures (HG! ), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumType: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 3.5875 Pivot: 3.3815 Support: 3.2415 Preferred Case: The H4 price is in a downward trend and crossing below ichimoku cloud. The price may drop form the pivot at 3.3815, where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement is to the 1st support at 3.2415 where the swing low and 78.6% fibonacci projection sits Alternative scenario: If there is a price reversal, price will move to 3.5875, where the swing highs and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Genesiv
Copper’s many tangosIn the following charts below, we will highlight why copper looks interesting to us right now. Firstly, the Copper Outright prices (orange) vs the Calendar spread (black). Copper calendar spread tend to move in-line with its outright prices, until major turning points, when the calendar spread leads the outright price movement. In February 2022, we observed the copper calendar spread making a significant move lower, with the outright prices following suit in April. With the calendar spread making a significant move higher now, is this what they call déjà vu? Secondly, copper prices and the Chinese Yuan have a relatively high correlation as China is the world’s largest buyer of the metal, and by a significant margin. The recent weakness in the Yuan has led copper prices lower, but with the CNYUSD pair seemingly recovering now, could some strength in the Yuan lead the copper rally? Thirdly, the Gold/Copper ratio generally trades within a pretty defined range, with out-of-range moves happening during major market events. The ratio’s recent high can be attributed to copper weakness compared with gold. With signs of the ratio retracing off the upper range, have we marked the end of this move? And is it time for copper to gain some ground against gold? Looking at the price charts, we see copper trading near the significant long-term support level of 3.3. Previous attempts to break this support in July and September were both rejected. On a shorter timeframe, we see a descending wedge pattern forming, which is generally considered a reversal pattern. The same setup is also observed on the Micro Copper contract, which offers greater flexibility and precision in execution. Copper’s interesting relationships with major currencies and commodities, allow us to analyze it from multiple angles. With some relationships at major inflection points now, we lean bullish on copper. Entry at 3.44, stop at 3.1335. Target at 3.8320 and 4.0000 . If you’re keen on understanding more about Copper and its many relationships, do check out our previous research piece: www.cmegroup.com The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by inspirante
11
Copper Futures ( HG1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish MomentumTitle: Copper Futures ( HG1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 3.4025 Pivot: 3.3610 Support: 3.2545 Preferred Case: On H4, with the price moving below the Ichimoku cloud and descending trendline, we have a bearish bias. However, price is resting on the 1st support at 3.2545 where the larger 78.6% Fibonacci line and 127.2% Fibonacci extension line lies. Expect a possible pullback back up to the Pivot line at 3.3610 where the previous swing low lies. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may continue the bearish momentum and break through the 1st support and head towards the 3.1335 level where the previous swing low lies. Fundamentals: No major news
COMEX:HG1!Long
by Genesiv
Elliott wave Analysis of Dr. CopperCopper is in downtrend from the high of March-07-2022, as per elliott wave analysis the copper seems to be in (corrective) 4th wave. If my analysis and wave counts holds good, then the 4th wave should end below the low of wave 1 which is "4.0346". The 4th wave should clearly show the ABC corrective pattern. The trade idea is to SHORT COPPER in the 5th wave, there is no way to predict exact point when the 5th wave will start and end. But if the copper price keeps going up respecting 4th wave, we will have a good trade. Possible reversal from 4th to 5th wave can be determined by superimposing Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points on top of the elliott waves, I expect it to happen in early August. I will post an update whether we have a trade or not, until then keep an eye on Dr. Copper.
FX:COPPER
by spranav
Short Term Copper 'SELLS' heading into Q4 of 2022I think it's becoming more and more clear that copper sells could extend into the last quarter of the year. Corrective wave 4 seems complete at 0.382 of the second Minor wave count and price is currently in an impulsive bear wave of a lower degree. We should therefore expect Copper prices to plunge to $2.96/lb(-15.4% decline) with some minor bullish price action to around $3.2/lb before eventually finding support at $2.7/lb, representing a -22.42% decline based on the current market price. As indicated in the chart, this short idea comes into play ONLY WHEN Copper prices drop BELOW $3.35/lb, which is the terminus of the minuette wave 1. Additionally, I strongly recommend you to review my long term forecast in profile. Here is a link to my previous Copper forecast. Disclaimer: The information provided here is only for educational purposes and should NOT be taken as investment advice.
OANDA:XCUUSDShort
by Timgucci
Soybeans ZS - Lagging the Pack, but Ready to GoThis is a call I wanted to make yesterday, but didn't have time. With the time I had, there was a choice between this and a Nasdaq NS call and made the Nasdaq call: Nasdaq NQ - 8 Days & 1,700 Points But in fairness, I did pick up November options during yesterday's session, so at least I can say that much for myself, since this has some vibes of hindsight based on today's action. Regardless, Soybeans gives strong cause to believe bullish action is imminent, based on the monthly candles: What this tells us that our June high formed a double top with the '12 all-time high. But most critically, it formed a lower high double top, which means that MMs are likely to seek this level to crush bear skulls, and it's just a question of when. The post-resistance top was really a long gap fill and we've also had three months of consolidation. As everyone who's traded with real money knows, picking the direction and the price is not the hardest, but instead, the timing is the very hardest, and most critical, thing. And in terms of timing, the weekly gives us good cause to believe we're ready to go. We see that late July featured a gap up, which has been filled in and heavily consolidated over the course of five weeks: And thusly, there is significantly reduced reason to believe that Soybeans are set to seek new lows instead of new highs. And indeed, on the daily, what has manifested is a string of higher lows, culminating in this morning's gundown of the 1,400 level A gundown that looks exceptionally turtle soup on the 1H, albeit retrospectively since it already ripped. But note that the rip occurred at 9:00 just before NYSE opens, significant because there are ETFs like SOYB that get caught gap up. More importantly, maybe consider not trying to short the pop. Instead, going long on a pullback could be quite good. And so, in magnifying the timeframe down to the 4H, I discovered that targeting boxes that appeared correct on the wider time frame were a little too shallow on the lower time frames. Thusly, I have generated a "revised" targeting box. However, like I said, time is the harder consideration. I feel ZS will get there, but who knows when? In the meantime, a rundown of the 1,500 level, which corresponds with those August-July relative equal highs around ~1,485 is very realistic. Everyone knows the global food supply is in trouble because of all the drought . Whether it's corn, wheat, soy, or whatever. And while you can certainly expect a new all time high to be made, it's really a question of when. Months like December, January, and February when everything is both trapped in winter, a new calendar year, and people are struggling to pay incredibly high natural gas/electricity bills across the world resulting from problems governments have created since the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine this year, may be the more likely time target for 2,000 point Soybeans.
CBOT:ZS1!
by LordWrymouth
3
Copper HG - Is It Finally Time?I have witnessed much consternation on Twitter over the last months and weeks about how Copper, a critical industrial element, continues to decline in price. All the while, like most other metals, the exchange vaults are being raided of thousands of tons of physical spot, which futures markets need to back short positions. One would think this would result in a price increase, and yet, metals have remained exceedingly bearish. Whether Copper can constitute a commodity in a price action cycle that can be considered bullish, rather than bearish, boils down to whether or not you believe that the $5 all time high set during the 2021-2022 bull run is either the ultimate top or the medium and short term top. Looking at the monthly, the situation is more clear: This pattern stands in sharp contrast to say, Soybeans, which has a very similar pattern of price action, but is less bearish over the last 3 months and also failed to set a new all time high during the early 2022 supercycle test run. Soybeans ZS - Lagging the Pack, but Ready to Go And is somewhat more like Wheat, which did take out the previous long term high, albeit only on a short term sweep. Wheat Futures - ZW - Like Snakes in a Can The contrast is that copper ran the old high three times already. So you really have to consider that the ultimate top may be in. More information on Copper HG can be discerned from the weekly, which shows notable gaps above $4, a healthy V-Bottom following the July dumps, and a close, albeit not-too-close, range bottom to the key Sept' 20 pivot: Breaking it down into the daily, we can see that July month end and August open plinked out a dump high, followed by August being characterized by a slow grind upwards before finally selling off at the end of the month: September, thus far, has opened very bearish, taking out the August pivot (twice, now), yet retaining the overall market structure, and showing an indication that it wants to trade higher. September is not likely to finish in a straight line down. What I like about this call is that while I have mixed feelings that copper will ever see $5 again, despite all the fundamentals saying it really ought to trade for a lot more, the reality is that I believe if it were to turn around and dump to new lows in the low $3s or mid-high $2s, it certainly does this, more likely than not, after raiding the $4 level first, based on how price action has developed. Currently, we're still young in the month and copper has so far traded bearishly, although it's showing a lot of promise in its price action that higher prices, rather than lower prices, are sought for now. The situation in this world is very strange at present. Energy shortages and food shortages are looming, hard, especially if you are in Europe. Recession, aka "Depression" is looming everywhere, and yet the U.S. equities market is still trading pretty high and for a lot of us life is just normal, albeit not as pleasant as before. The dollar index is mooning and many critical currencies from other countries, including ones as strong and crucial as Japan, are being slaughtered, and yet, no matter how siren-sounding Twitter is, price action does not reflect a degree of panic really anywhere. Even WTI Crude Oil, which I called would trade towards the $81 mark at the beginning of August, is trading in such a fashion that despite losing 30% of its value, there is still no fear, no shock and awe. WTI Crude Oil - Running and Gunning And even so far as Natural Gas NG has already lost more than 10%, somehow despite all the fundamentals saying otherwise, nobody is batting an eyelid. Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull? Right now, everything, everywhere, is just business as usual, and another dip to buy. But for how much longer? A 72 VIX print is looming in the cards, and the lack of fear will truly have such a move catch many off guard. VIX - 9x8 = 72 The hardest thing in trading is not determining the direction or the targets. Instead, the hardest thing is gauging and predicting _when_ the move will happen and how it will unfold, since time is weaponized, and not very many things go up or down in a straight line all that often. Frankly, reason stands that the reality is that we will see Copper trade for prices like $10 in the relatively close future, and if so, then this price action we're sitting at is truly the place where the abyss will start to rage from. But to go long for that day... when does it really unfold? More likely than not, if you want to aim for numbers over $5, you're looking at a date in 2023, and it's very hard to trade options and futures that far out. And never forget, the world's greatest "black swan" looming is the coming collapse of the Chinese Communist Party . When that day really unfolds, most of the world's population will be bamboozled and caught off guard, which is why I call it a "black swan." But in reality, it is a development that is so, so easy to see. If you can't see it, maybe renounce your faith in communism, socialism, Marxist-Leninist stuff, and have better thoughts. Position yourself with the mentality that saw the world defeat Hitler in World War 2. The CCP has killed more than 100 million of its own people during its sanguine 100-year reign, including the 23-year-long organ harvesting persecution against Falun Gong meditation. How much longer can a group of rogues squatting in Shanghai last, soaked in sins like that? Rationality is simply too critical, and the level of one's rationality is connected directly to the level of their morality.
COMEX:HG1!
by LordWrymouth
3