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Copper

Global headwinds for copper?Copper has attempted a rebound from technical oversold levels in recent days, following a 20% drawdown from its all time highs, thus officially entering a bear market. Is this an indication that investors have already priced in a global economic downturn and that the worst is now over? Or are we merely experiencing a copper bear market rally, with further declines to come? The previous days have acted as a relief rally in all assets that had declined in recent months. That's because interest rate fears cooled as inflation peaked. The market is beginning to believe that the Fed may not go all-in with rate rises and will thus need to release the brake to prevent more damage (a recession). However, the most significant concerns associated with copper, particularly Covid-19 in China and the negative repercussions on global growth, have not dissipated. If current geopolitical and economic challenges, such as Covid in China and the conflict in Ukraine, derail globalization efforts, copper prices may face further headwinds in the coming months as trade flows stall due to a drop in global consumer demand amid real income losses. Copper prices exhibit an extraordinarily close link with South Korean exports ECONOMICS:KREXP — one of the world's most open economies and a gauge of the health of global trade flows. Read more...
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by Capitalcom
Jamie Gun2Head - Selling CopperTrade Idea: Selling Copper after 78.6% resistance Reasoning: Intraday head and shoulders top, looking to hit measured move target Entry Level: 4.276 Take Profit Level: 4.175 Stop Loss: 4.301 Risk/Reward: 4.04:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Signal_Centre
Elliott Wave View: Copper Looking to Turn Lower Soon Short Term Elliott Wave View in Copper (HG #F) suggests cycle from 4/5/2022 high ended as a 5 waves impulse structure at 4.0372. This impulse wave lower ended wave 1 in red. Wave 2 corrective rally is now in progress as double three Elliott Wave Structure. Rally from wave 1 began the first leg of the double correction. Wave (a) ended at 4.2062 and a pullback in wave (b) ended at 4.1332. Copper then resumed higher in wave (c) and ended at 4.2833 as wave ((w)) in higher degree. Down from wave ((w)) high on May 17, wave (a) ended at 4.1915 and bounce in wave (b) ended at 4.2309. Then the metal extends lower in wave (c) towards 4.1316 which completed the connector as wave ((x)). Rally from wave ((x)) is a zig zag correction to complete wave ((y)) and wave 2. Wave (a) of ((y)) formed an impulse and ended at 4.3274. Correction in wave (b) ended at 4.2556. Next push higher we are calling an ending diagonal as wave (c) to complete wave ((y)) and the whole structure as wave 2 correction. This last leg higher should complete at 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension at 4.3776 – 4.53 where Copper should turn lower again or at least see 3 waves pullback.
COMEX:HG1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Volatility 19 May 22 Metal Commodities Copper, Gold, SilverHG/ Cooper Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5630 candles our expected volatility for today is around 1.45% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 1.82% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.077 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 82% probability for today are going to be TOP 4.231 BOT 4.08 GOLD/ GC Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5630 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.88% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 1.1% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 19.86 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 84% probability for today are going to be TOP 1835 BOT 1795 SILVER /SL Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5630 candles our expected volatility for today is around 1.68% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 2.1% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.45 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 84% probability for today are going to be TOP 21.88 BOT 20.98
COMEX:SI1!
by exlux
Jamie's Gun2Head - Selling Copper Trade Idea: Selling Copper on 50% pullback Reasoning: Rallied into resistance level, looking to continue move lower Entry Level : 4.2170 Take Profit Level: 4.0370 Stop Loss: 4.2440 Risk/Reward: 6.67:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Signal_Centre
Platinum - A better deal than it looks?Looking at the price of platinum, it looks kind of overpriced, like many other things. But when adjusted for M2, it's much lower than most things. Seems like a great deal TA wise. Longer term chart: 10x the price of 1970 = ~1500. This target seems pretty low not to mention we aren't even there yet! But the short term pattern looks like a bit of a topping pattern. Could take a while to setup. Just something to keep an eye on. What do you think? Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets :)
TVC:PLATINUMLong
by fringe_chartist
Copper Falls - An OpportunityIn May 2021, the nearby COMEX copper futures contract reached a record $4.8985 per pound. After a correction to just below the $4 level in August 2021, the red nonferrous metal made higher lows and higher highs, leading to another all-time peak at $5.01 per pound in early March 2022. Range trading gives way to a downside break Goldman Sachs believes higher highs are on the horizon Copper is a green metal with the demand outstripping supplies It will take a decade to bring new production online Buying copper scale-down on the dip could be the optimal approach The new record high on March 7 led to a period of consolidation where copper traded between $4.60 and $4.60 per pound. On April 25, the leader of the nonferrous metals fell below the bottom end of its trading range to the $4.40 level. The decline in copper could be the perfect opportunity to load up on the metal that Goldman Sachs calls “the new crude oil” because of its requirements for green energy technology. Range trading gives way to a downside break On May 7, the continuous COMEX copper futures reached a new all-time high at over $5 per pound. The chart highlights the rally that took COMEX copper futures above the May 2021 $4.8985 peak to $5.01 per pound in early March. Copper rallied on the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the highest inflation readings in over four decades. The chart illustrates July copper futures traded in a range from $4.4710 to $4.7660 per pound from mid-March through April 22. On April 25, the price dropped below the bottom of the range on the back of the prospects for higher US interest rates and the rising value of the US dollar against other world reserve currencies. Higher rates increase the cost of carrying raw material inventories, and a strong dollar tends to be bearish for commodity prices as they rise in other currency terms. However, 2022 is anything but an ordinary year as inflation will keep real interest rates in negative territory, and all currencies, including the US dollar, are losing purchasing power. July copper futures traded to the most recent low on May 2 at $4.2040 per pound, the lowest price in 2022, and since December 15, 2021, when it found a bottom at $4.1105. The short-term technical trend is bearish, but the longer-term path of least resistance remains bullish. Moreover, supply and demand fundamentals tell us that the current dip in the nonferrous metal is a buying opportunity. Goldman Sachs believes higher highs are on the horizon In 2021, as copper was on its way to the May $4.8985 high, Goldman Sachs’ analysts called copper the “new oil” because of its role in green energy technology. Electric vehicles, wind turbines, and other alternative energy initiatives require ever-increasing copper supplies. Goldman pointed out that decarbonization does not occur without copper. The leading financial firm expects copper prices to rise to $15,000 per ton by 2025. At that level, COMEX futures will eclipse $6.80 per pound, nearly 60% above last week’s closing level at $4.2670. Other analysts expect even higher copper prices. Meanwhile, markets tend to move to prices on the up and downside that defy logic and reasonable and rational analysis. It is impossible to identify tops for bottoms in significant bull and bear market periods. The latest example was crude oil, which fell to below negative $40 per barrel in April 2020. No analyst saw that price coming. Copper is a green metal with the demand outstripping supplies Copper demand is set to rise over the coming years, but supplies to meet requirements will be a challenge for at least three reasons: Addressing climate change - ironically, copper demand will rise because of green initiatives, but net-zero carbon emission pledges by mining companies will weigh on production. Copper production is energy-intensive, requiring hydrocarbons. Rising production costs - Inflationary pressures have caused labor, financing, energy, equipment, and all mining input costs to rise, putting upward pressure on prices and downward pressure on output. Supply chain and political issues - Global supply chain bottlenecks continue to cause problems in transporting all commodities from production sites to consumers. Moreover, the geopolitical landscape is creating price distortions. The war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, Russian retaliation, and the “no-limits” support between China and Russia create an ideological bifurcation with the US and Europe. China is the world’s dominant copper consumer. The tensions distort all raw material prices, and copper is no exception. The prospects for a growing deficit in the copper market are high in 2022. The five-year trend in LME copper warehouse inventories has made lower highs and lower lows, indicating that robust demand is outpacing supplies. It will take a decade to bring new production online The cure for high prices in commodities is always the high price level as producers step up output to take advantage and earn more profits. In copper, it takes eight to ten years to bring a new mine into production, meaning the high prices in 2022 will only yield new and higher output in 2030. Moreover, the leading mining companies are scouring the world for new proven and probable reserves. BHP, a leading mining company, is even exploring the potential for a copper project in the challenging political climate of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. BHP calls the area a “tougher jurisdiction” because of the DRC’s long history of corruption and political instability. The bottom line is production will struggle to keep up with copper’s growing demand. Buying copper scale-down on the dip could be the optimal approach- A similar pattern to the May through August price behavior The latest price action in the copper futures market looks very similar to the move from the May 2021 high to the August 2021 bottom. The chart shows the decline from $4.8985 in May 2021 to a low of $3.98 in August 2021, an 18.8% correction in five months. Copper futures only traded below the $4 level for one day in August 2021. The most recent correction took the red metal from $5.01 to $4.1900 per pound or 16.4%. If copper holds above the $3.98 level, it will make another in a long series of higher lows since the March 2020 bottom at just over $2 per pound. I favor buying copper on a scale-down basis as supply and demand fundamentals and the long-term technical trend remain bullish. The short-term trend is bearish, but that could be an opportunity for those looking to accumulate the nonferrous metal that is a critical component in climate change initiatives. I expect higher highs in copper over the coming years. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
THREAD #3 : Commodities Update ‼️I know it took time to get this thread update, I'm sorry for that, but here it is ! ▶️ How it works ? Ask me in comment my chart analysis of the asset you want if it didn't have already done under. If I find something intersting to say and show, I will update the idea with it. A comment of each asset expose will be post under, come react about it or debate. ▶️ Before to start I want to remind that we are in a period of conflict and news can emerge at any moment with strong effect and reaction on market. So invest carefully on this hard times and reduce your loss exposition on market when you can. Don't forget to take profit too. CRUDE OIL ✅ One of my perspectives in the last update was to see price going to the A line before to fall back rapidly, we falled but we can see we stopped just before the resistance. Precision of the market is remarquable so I keep this target in mind to get reach it in the future. For the moment we can expect a return on the 2b line, constructing a channel, even if the exact channel would be to target 3b but it can be an exageration of the market. Like each commodities update, I remind that it's a highly manipulated asset so, or stay away of it, or be very careful of your loss exposure. GOLD ✅ "The chart don't have change since the commodities update of the 20th of January. We are coming to the end of the bull scenario. I invit to take profits on the conjoncture of the resistance area and the (2c) resistance. There is no interest to sell a refuge asset like gold, even more in this time of conflict. So if there is selling signals take it like an opportunity to buy it lower. Especially here, we will wait for buying signals on the (1b) or (1a) support and the best case would be the support area of $1,700 - $1,675 but far from now." This was my exact words two months ago, I think there is nothing to add because it's exactly what is happenning. We've seen a buying pressure on (1b) but without buying volume, so no reason to buy, now we are going for the next area : the (1a) support. Wait signals, if there isn't on (1a), wait the support. SILVER ✅ Like for the gold : "I don't expect a breakout of (1b) and the resistance area, so for me we will see the construction of a range between them around $27 and $29. The biggest probability for me is a bull outcome of the range to target the (1c) resistance (scenario A) and probably more after. If we reject the resistance strongly after lateralization I expect price to go deeply retest the (1a) support around $20." Very close again from the reality, in fact, we ranged (2$ lower from my expectations). Unfortunetly we didn't got the bull outcome and strongly rejected on supply. Like expected a deep retest to the supports. Speaking of now, the close of tonight is really important cause we broke the 2b support and reacted with buying pressure on support area. If we close tonight back inside the channel (upper of (2b)), we could expect a reintegration and so with buying volume tomorrow, a confirmation of it. Else we could expect a simple pullback on the broken support (which mean short opportunities on lower timeframe) to go back lower to the expected bear scenario of 2 month ago, the $20 area. Furthermore we can see a stop hunt pattern taking place on support, nice setup to see climax. COPPER ✅ Copper have been one of the assets that I most spoke. Because of the Wyckoff Reaccumulation pattern we had, and which brought signals and targets. The last update was the failed SOS, closing the long position because of the expectation to see a pullback to the support. In fact we are going for it, we are always in between so expectations didn't changed. We will see on support if we have long signals to exploit. Maybe we could build a bigger Wyckoff pattern (reaccumulation or distribution), in this case it would be really interesting because we could exploit as long and short signals around, respectively, support and resistance. PLATINUM ✅ Very similar as silver we can observe the sames patterns, sames signals. So no much things to add, if we reintegrate we can exploit pullback on (2b), else we wait opportunity given by stop hunt to take a deeper position around $840 or $760. PALLADIUM ✅ "We made an SOS which has also failed. So technically, the biggest probability is to see it go down on the (2b) line in a first time (scenario A) maybe more with (1a) before to retest the resistance (1b)." Nothing more to add again, the plan continue to go in the right way. We are ranging around (2b), no signal for the moment so we can expect a continuation to (1a) (SCENARIO A) but it's important to stay aware about the possibility to see a Wyckoff acummulation here (SCENARIO B), no signal of it for the moment. WHEAT & CORN ✅ The master word on the last update on wheat was to take profit on ATH because of the expectation of a strong selling pressure like oil, in fact it happened. We already made half of the job to go back to the last resistance being broke. Wait signals around here to target a retest of ATH. Else each broken resistance become a nice spot to target entry. Corn is similar to it. For both, with the macroeconomic context we can expect retests of ATH. In all case stay careful, it stay heavily influenced by the macroeconomic dynamics so from news also. SUGAR ✅ A nice way to finish is to speak from the plan we had in the last update and which succeed ! We had a Wyckoff Reaccumulation Pattern, it was EXACTLY the same setup as the one on the copper which also succeed. The spot to survey was the pullback on the creek, entry signal was perfect on H4 timeframe. Target on 2:1 ratio, then second target on resistance level, then exit because of the failed SOS. It was a nice setup shared it and I'm happy of that. Let's speak of future expectation now, it's really close to the copper analysis. We will see if we could build a bigger pattern, in this case everything is exploitable ON SIGNALS always! Furthermore we stay in a monthly interest area where as Wyckoff Reaccumulation and Wyckoff Distrubution pattern could bring to a big movement. So it will be an asset to look closely on in the future. 🛑"Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions"🛑 👉 Like, follow or comment* if you like, I need it to continue ! *Speaking of comments, come ask questions, come share your point of view, come debate, I need to feel that my without counterpart work is usefull for some !
NYMEX:CL1!
by Kentg
18
Copper: Bullish Move From Key Level Copper reached a very peculiar confluence zone: we see a perfect match between a horizontal daily demand area, 618 and 786 retracement levels of the last two bullish impulses. Analyzing the candlesticks, we may spot a nice dodji candle being formed on that structure. Then, analyzing an intraday perspective, I spotted a bullish breakout of a falling wedge pattern formation. I assume that it will trigger a bullish move. Resistances on focus: 800 / 805 ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
MCX:COPPER1!Long
by VasilyTrader
8
AUMN - The Best 3-Year Setup I've Ever SeenIMO, Golden Minerals, AUMN , has arguably one of the best and most bullish setups I have ever come across. It will be fun watching this one play out. Amazing risk/reward play with easy invalidation levels as well to protect yourself in this trade. The featured content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. Everything shared here is my own opinion. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances. Please subscribe to our channel if you like what you are seeing!
ALong
by jstrasburger
1
Copper Sell (Short term)We have seen an impressive bull run on Copper and Copper stocks over the past few months, my calculations / analysis shows that this may now be coming to an end and we should expect a short - term sell off on Copper and Copper stocks in the next coming weeks. Copper (XCUUSD) will be entering a correction in the second quarter of 2022. At the current price, potential downside is about 22%. My first target for this quarter is $4.09/lb and $3.51/lb is the 'final safe' at which further analysis will be made available. DISCLAIMER: This is purely educative content and must not be taken as investment advise. Good luck
OANDA:XCUUSDShort
by Timgucci
COPPER 25th APRIL 2022The world's demand for Hg/copper is reduced from the previous weeks, this could lead to a correction in copper prices. there are sentiments to consider for trading COPPER. I usually use 2 sources to see the sentiment of big players: 1. LME : London Metal Exchange is a futures and forwards exchange with the world's largest market in standardized forward contracts, futures contracts, and options on base metals. The exchange also offers contracts on ferrous metals and precious metals. www.lme.com 2. CFTC : Commodity Futures Trading Commission is an independent agency of the US government created in 1974, that regulates the U.S. derivatives markets, which includes futures, swaps, and certain kinds of options. www.cftc.gov It can be concluded that copper tends to be bearish for correction in the short term , but in the long term it still tends to be bullish . 1. Interest in the LME has decreased slightly from 684k to 675k: as in the theory of supply and demand, when goods are not in demand, prices will fall. 2. Contracts on metal trading on the CFTC tend to be more short contracts for the short term. 3. price breakout on the daily time frame, target to the next support level
CShort
by DNP-FX
Copper Futures ( HG1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DipType : Bearish Dip Resistance : 4.7890 Pivot: 4.7740 Support : 4.7375 Preferred case: We see the potential for a bearish dip from our pivot at 4.7740 in line with 138.2% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st support at 4.7375 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 4.7890 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Fundamentals: No major news.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Genesiv