Copper to $10+ by 2024. Easy. ~$4.50 today is fundamentally not the same as ~$4.50 in 2011 - the last time copper traded at these prices. QE was fresh off the block in 2011. today, it is standard operating procedure and although the fed talks a good game with tapering, we have yet to see any balance sheet reduction.
Looking at this monthly chart, I noticed an interesting double bottom that hits its' target before entering price discovery between 1999-2006. the pattern is not perfect but it looks really similar to copper 2016-2022. Double bottom, target reached around $4.30, and now we're off to the races - price discovery.
I think copper to $10 in under 2 years is a very safe bet. It doesn't threaten fiat as much as gold/silver and is manipulated less as a result. It is critical in many industries and the push for everything to go IoT will continue the increasing pressure on copper as well.
Let's see how this one ages.
Copper
Copper in free fall, but ...It is well known that due to the current circumstances of multifactors of the negative order, they are causing a Global crisis, which in turn cuts the industrial demand, clearly that happened in the past and is clearly illustrated in the last crisis ( "Subprime Crisis" ).
we have clear then the "high ceilings" and the "low floors",.
although there is copper falls without stopping,
but remember that this element is essential for the industry
in future mankind in electromobility plus also of electronics in general and industrial and so on.
and that is why the deep zone would eventually be a good buying zone. ,
also the fall of this metal is closely related to the Chilean ( clp ) peso.
copperThe support index lost $3.3.
But static support is $2.96 and dynamic support is #2.
The negative divergence caused the price to fall, but now we are seeing a positive divergence as it approaches the $2.7 support.
We should wait and see if the price will be supported by this strong downward momentum or not?
Lets Kill Copper (HG) Back To BackHi Traders,
Looking at Copper (HG) Again, Since the last post it has effortlessly melted to my target. I Now see another short opportunity coming up and I am looking at making sure we can capitalize on the commodity.
The way I am playing this one is that I am using less risk as I would not want to give back any profit if the setup does not work. Looking at the technical, Price has created a small consolidation and then has managed break it with a strong engulfing candle. Price came back is retesting the resistance at 3.25.
I have already entered the position and I am looking to ride the next leg down to 3.0365 which I think will be a beautiful trade.
Let us see how this one plays out.
Renaldo Philander
Silver Bullet Mines Major AchievementSilver has been beaten down and is pairings to bounce higher given rampant inflation and global economic strain. Both silver and copper are critical to industries including things like solar panel manufacturing for silver and electrical vehicle manufacturing for copper.
Silver Bullet Mines just announced it has successfully produced its first silver concentrate yesterday 7/12/2022at its wholly owned 125 metric ton per day mill near Globe, AZ.
They expect to produce copper from their Buckeye mine as well and have experienced no major setbacks, positioned now to achieve further milestones and increase production.
Both the mill and the Buckeye Mine are 100% controlled by SBMI.
Incredible opportunity at an incredible entry point with an ultra low cap early stage mining company.
Copper (HG) Double Top Setup In-Play Hi Traders,
Copper (HG) Double Top Setup In-Play, this is a very simple play due to the fact that we are still in a down trend and the lower high at 3.5640. We can see price tapped this price twice and then proceeded to fall. This surely shows that right now the bulls aren’t strong enough to push price.
We then see that a double top has formed and this has pushed price to break the neckline at 3.4750 and now we are currently retesting. I am currently short on the commodity and I would like to see bearish candles form in order for me to add more positions to my investment.
My target is the lows of 3.2740 where I will close my trade.
Be safe out there.
Renaldo Philander
Copper - where are we from a technical perspective?Disclaimer:
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Joe Gun2Head Trade - Copper at a key levelTrade Idea: Buying Copper
Reasoning: Copper oversold and trading at a key 50% Fibonacci retracement level
Entry Level: 3.5079
Take Profit Level: 3.6428
Stop Loss: 3.4763
Risk/Reward: 4.04:1
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King Gold #gold vs #copper vs #silver vs stocks "since the money printing started" with QE1, and each having their time in the spotlight as macro narratives change over the years.
Gold on top to-date, and it 10 years it will likely still be on top.
Few understand this.
The AUD getting smoked - a change in the market is happeningI think we’re seeing a turning point in the economic cycle and markets are moving to reposition for this – one where we’ve been myopically focused on inflation, to the next phase, a pure global growth focus, with inflation subsequently falling back to 4-5% range. We’re all scrambling to price recession risk and how protracted it will be and whether the result will be a lift in layoffs as consumption is hammered..here in Oz housing is the major unknown and is central to financial system and that is showing some worrying signs.
Central banks were far too late to lift rates (stop QE), will they now be too late to react to the economic change as well?? The fact we’re pricing more and more rate CUTS for 2023 (certainly in the US and UK) suggests it can’t be too far from a major turn from central banks – So, I think we get another 150bp of hikes (from the Fed) and other banks, but by late September that the Fed and others will be forced by the markets to make a shift to firmly ease up and start to more actively support growth. It becomes more and more political in the US given the Nov Mid-terms.
It means the AUD and NZD are our default plays in FX…it means copper and crude are front and centre in commodities and it means energy, materials and cyclical plays will remain underperformers vs utilities and staples…it means we likely trade to 3200, maybe 3000 (at a push) in the US500 and crypto is going to $12-10k range….
We’re already seeing market pricing of future inflation cratering and that won't have gone unnoticed by the Fed… the question is will they get it wrong again, and could something in the financial system break along the way….we shall see, but the base case is the Sept FOMC meeting will herald a shift from the Fed that could create a monster rally in gold, crypto, growth equities into year-end – this will then be compounded by active funds chasing performance…cash is king till then, so save your pennies or learn how to short…markets are never dull but they force you to be open-minded.
Dr Copper is telling us deflation is comingAt the beginning of June I put out an idea about shorting Copper . The market didn't do me the favor to get up to my entry, as I ignored past resistance. Probably got a little greedy too. Currently copper is sitting at support and could bounce up to 4$, maybe even up to 4.25$.
However in the long term, I see it go much much lower. In my opinion we are in a global recession, and probably even in a global depression. As interest rates and energy costs have risen rapidly, the demand for many things has gone down. We haven't seen the full effects of too much debt + lockdowns + WW3 + not enough energy production yet, but we are getting there. Copper going down is just the first step, and this could turn really really ugly.
The 2006-2008 top on Copper looks pretty similar to this one. Huge rally up, consolidation, attempt to breakout, failure, massive collapse. This time around we had a shorter cycle due to the lockdowns + stimulus + low rates + ESG , but this situation is truly reversing. We have no lockdowns, no stimulus, high rates and the ESG movement is clearly losing steam. Overall volume is low and that's a sign that demand for Copper isn't all that high. It was mostly supply being low, and not demand being high.
So how low could we go? The truth is that for some time this could be a bottomless pit. However, I believe the bottom will come in the 1.5-1.9 area, as the market needs to sweep the double bottom at 1.9. In terms of technical analysis this is the area anyone should be targeting. Once we get there, we could see a swift reversal as the Fed and all central banks are forced to cut rates and print money once again, in order to save the system from collapsing. They are stuck between a rock and hard place, and although they are doing their best to fight inflation now, they will soon be trying to fight deflation.
LONG ON COPPER - Will This Chart Save us From Recession Worries?It probably won't but a relief rally could be in play.
Watch Our Bronze Age Bitcoin Video today:
The Bronze Age followed the Stone Age and began around 4000 years ago. The Iron Age followed the Bronze Age and began around 3000 years ago. That's some time ago, yes.
Could Bitcoin play a role as the beginning of a 'new age'? Sure.. it's a trustless system in a stupid planet with no trust between it's 'nations'.
Funnily enough, I come from the island of Cyprus. 🏖️🌴🐬
Cyprus was famous in antiquity for its copper resources. In fact the very word copper is derived from the Greek name for the island, Kupros.
Watch this if you like history: www.youtube.com
Copper Price as an indication of what happens next:
The price of copper is largely influenced by the health of the global economy. This is due to its widespread applications in all sectors of the economy, such as power generation and transmission, construction, factory equipment and electronics. Sometimes referred to as Doctor Copper , the base metal is seen as a reliable leading indicator. A rising market price suggests strong economic health, while a decline suggests the opposite.
So we keep having many Copper related articles lately: Copper has entered a bear market , which may indicate a stronger chance that recession is coming.
OUR ANALYSIS:
We had shared with YOU, HERE a perfect short on Copper last summer:
COPPER- Poised for a Correction
At this stage we see Copper on MAJOR SUPPORT and this is only Good news:
snapshot
Hope it all makes some sense.
If you Like the idea, we Like to see you Liking our post.
One Love,
the FXPROFESSOR
Bitcoin Today: Let's Talk about 'BRONZE AGE'The Bronze Age followed the Stone Age and began around 4000 years ago. The Iron Age followed the Bronze Age and began around 3000 years ago. That's some time ago, yes.
Could Bitcoin play a role as the beginning of a 'new age'? Sure.. it's a trustless system in a stupid planet with no trust between it's 'nations'.
Funnily enough, I come from the island of Cyprus. 🏖️🌴🐬
Cyprus was famous in antiquity for its copper resources. In fact the very word copper is derived from the Greek name for the island, Kupros.
Watch this if you like history: www.youtube.com
Copper Price as an indication of what happens next:
The price of copper is largely influenced by the health of the global economy. This is due to its widespread applications in all sectors of the economy, such as power generation and transmission, construction, factory equipment and electronics. Sometimes referred to as Doctor Copper, the base metal is seen as a reliable leading indicator. A rising market price suggests strong economic health, while a decline suggests the opposite.
So we keep having many Copper related articles lately: Copper has entered a bear market, which may indicate a stronger chance that recession is coming.
OUR ANALYSIS:
We had shared with YOU, HERE a perfect short on Copper last summer:
At this stage we see Copper on MAJOR SUPPORT and this is only Good news:
Hope it all makes some sense.
If you Like the idea, we Like to see you Liking our post.
One Love,
the FXPROFESSOR
COPPER Copper has rejected an important level also violated EMA's to show a clear correction. Natural gas following the same path lagging but to follow the similar path I think, Option Volatility in commodity currencies such as AUD,NZD have been of interest the past two weeks.
Selling commodities and Commodity currencies, Buying the Dollar and waiting for and an entry signal to get back in to Equities, My ideal trades till September.
Silver is leading Copper.
Copper Responding to SupportThere is a lot to like from a technical perspective regarding copper. Price carved a doji on Friday and price has reacted to a level defined by VWAP from the March 2020 low and former resistance (January 2021 high). Also, the decline from March consists of 2 equal legs. I'm thinking higher as long as last week's low holds. The May low at 4.0370 is a soft target.
-Jamie