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Copper

Copper is in a death cross: $3.5 is the next crucial supportThis week, copper plummeted to fresh 52-week lows, breaking below the $4 per pound support level held since April 2021. Prices have now reached oversold territory as the 14-day RSI went below 30 this week, and is currently trading at 22, reflecting the brown metal’s severe sell-off. Moving averages have also created a so-called death-cross pattern, with the 50-day crossing the 200-day, possibly indicating a shift from a bull to a bear market. Copper sales have surged as recession concerns grew significantly, especially in the United States. Inflationary pressures in many nations of world are much harder to control than expected, and they are also widespread in goods and services not directly connected to energy prices, requiring higher interest rates that would inevitably slow economic activity. Copper , being one of the most sensitive commodities to the economic cycle, suffers substantially during phases of slowdown in the US ISM Manufacturing index , as we explained in this analysis . Copper prices are presently testing the $3.7 resistance level established in January ’21 and are down 27% from their March ‘22 highs. Below this level, the $3.5 pound support in December 2020 and January 2021 could be tested. This is a crucial threshold for the Fibonacci retracement analysis since a fall below the 50% level would boost bearish' convictions and confirm the presence of a copper's bear market.
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by Capitalcom
COPPER High probability for a reboundCOPPER (HG1!) has been trading within a Channel Down ever since the March 07 High caused of the Russia - Ukraine war escalation. Right now the price isn't just approaching the Channel's Lower Lows trend-line (bottom) but also the March 04 2021 Low of 3.8500. With the RSI dropping below the oversold 30.00 barrier on the 1D time-frame and making a Double Bottom. the market may soon reverse towards the Channel's top again. The last time we saw all these parameters aligned in the same order was during the May - August 2021 Channel Down, where the price after the RSI Double Bottom on the 30.00 mark, it rebounded above the 0.618 Fibonacci to the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel. Our strategy is to initially settle for a short-term target just below the 0.618 Fib extension at 4.3000 and then re-evaluate as a break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is most likely needed in order to reverse the trend completely. If on the other hand 3.8100 breaks, we expect a sharp sell-off towards the 3.4500 Low of December 10 2020, where the price can also make contact with the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMEX:HG1!Long
by TradingShot
2
Copper Futures setting up for a potential long tradeCopper / HG Futures market may be setting up for a move back to the upside. After a huge expanding bullish candle in the beginning of June that saw price blast through the volume Point of Control (POC) which goes back to October last year the price then immediately reversed and we have seen a sell off for the majority of this month. However yesterday we saw a spinning top candle form at a critical point which had been a support level, this has also painted bullish divergence on the RSI indicator. Further to the above technical analysis we have also seen net buying activity from commercial operators which indicates a slight under supply : demand imbalance. On many occasions large commercial buying can lead to a price hike as supply squeeze takes hold. Lastly commodity seasonal reports also show that copper does have a tendency to sell off in the beginning of June but then turns around at the end June and price upwards again through until end of July before dipping again coming into August. I would like to see price close above yesterdays close and hold above ~$4.05 which is roughly a support zone. Ideal entries could be above yesterdays high with price targets at ~$4.25 and / or ~$4.40, which are both just below previous support and resistance levels and large volume clusters. However if price cannot break above and hold $4.05 and instead falls and closes under $4.00 then I would not be looking at any long trades.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by gary_trades
Copper Is Forming A Bullish Running Triangle PatternHello traders, today we will talk about copper, its price action from technical point of view and wave structure from Elliott wave perspective. Copper is trading sideways since May 2021 and we see it trapped in consolidation, ideally within a bullish running triangle pattern in wave (4). Triangles are overlapping five wave affairs A-B-C-D-E that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3 as an a-b-c. They appear to reflect a balance of forces, causing a sideways movement that is usually associated with decreasing volume and volatility. Triangles fall into four main categories i.e. ascending, descending, contracting, expanding. It is quite common, particularly in contracting triangles, for wave b to exceed the start of wave a in what may be termed a running triangle. Triangles, by far, most commonly occur as fourth waves. Triangles are very tricky and confusing. One must study the pattern very carefully prior to taking action. Prices tend to shoot out of the triangle formation in a swift thrust. When triangles occur in the fourth wave, the market thrusts out of the triangle in the same direction as Wave 3. Well, looking at the daily chart of copper, seems like it has completed a three-wave a-b-c decline for wave C and it's already trading now in final stages of "c" of wave D, so final leg E yet to come before rally back to highs for wave (5)? Technically speaking, we see intraday resistance for wave D around 4.6 - 4.8 area, from where we may see final wave E slow down back to 4.3 - 4.1 support zone. Trade well! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by ew-forecast
Copper rallying hardCopper bounced very hard off the Yearly Pivot, however it doesn't look ready for a new sustainable rally. Maybe this bounce had something to do with a fundamental catalyst, but nothing to do with the bull market resuming. To me the market is in a very clear distribution phase, and it simply bounced after taking out several major lows. Essentially this is a short squeeze / dead cat bounce, and going for the retest of the breakdown. The market tends to go back and retest such key areas before moving to the original direction. Similar story for Gold which is also bouncing and has some room to the upside before it reverses to the downside. In the long term I do believe Copper will be headed much much higher, especially as governments print more and more, along with the ESG movement. Copper is necessary for the green revolution and that's why I can see it much higher in the long term. However in the short term the price got too high, too fast, and as it failed to sustain above the 2011 ATHs, it is probably headed towards 3.75 and maybe even lower in the next few years. For now the first key target for this trade 3.95, although someone could simply take partial profits there. The trade has a fairly decent R/R and decent probability of playing out as long as the market gets to our entry.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by BitcoinMacro
1
Global headwinds for copper?Copper has attempted a rebound from technical oversold levels in recent days, following a 20% drawdown from its all time highs, thus officially entering a bear market. Is this an indication that investors have already priced in a global economic downturn and that the worst is now over? Or are we merely experiencing a copper bear market rally, with further declines to come? The previous days have acted as a relief rally in all assets that had declined in recent months. That's because interest rate fears cooled as inflation peaked. The market is beginning to believe that the Fed may not go all-in with rate rises and will thus need to release the brake to prevent more damage (a recession). However, the most significant concerns associated with copper, particularly Covid-19 in China and the negative repercussions on global growth, have not dissipated. If current geopolitical and economic challenges, such as Covid in China and the conflict in Ukraine, derail globalization efforts, copper prices may face further headwinds in the coming months as trade flows stall due to a drop in global consumer demand amid real income losses. Copper prices exhibit an extraordinarily close link with South Korean exports ECONOMICS:KREXP — one of the world's most open economies and a gauge of the health of global trade flows. Read more...
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by Capitalcom
Jamie Gun2Head - Selling CopperTrade Idea: Selling Copper after 78.6% resistance Reasoning: Intraday head and shoulders top, looking to hit measured move target Entry Level: 4.276 Take Profit Level: 4.175 Stop Loss: 4.301 Risk/Reward: 4.04:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Signal_Centre
Elliott Wave View: Copper Looking to Turn Lower Soon Short Term Elliott Wave View in Copper (HG #F) suggests cycle from 4/5/2022 high ended as a 5 waves impulse structure at 4.0372. This impulse wave lower ended wave 1 in red. Wave 2 corrective rally is now in progress as double three Elliott Wave Structure. Rally from wave 1 began the first leg of the double correction. Wave (a) ended at 4.2062 and a pullback in wave (b) ended at 4.1332. Copper then resumed higher in wave (c) and ended at 4.2833 as wave ((w)) in higher degree. Down from wave ((w)) high on May 17, wave (a) ended at 4.1915 and bounce in wave (b) ended at 4.2309. Then the metal extends lower in wave (c) towards 4.1316 which completed the connector as wave ((x)). Rally from wave ((x)) is a zig zag correction to complete wave ((y)) and wave 2. Wave (a) of ((y)) formed an impulse and ended at 4.3274. Correction in wave (b) ended at 4.2556. Next push higher we are calling an ending diagonal as wave (c) to complete wave ((y)) and the whole structure as wave 2 correction. This last leg higher should complete at 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension at 4.3776 – 4.53 where Copper should turn lower again or at least see 3 waves pullback.
COMEX:HG1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Volatility 19 May 22 Metal Commodities Copper, Gold, SilverHG/ Cooper Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5630 candles our expected volatility for today is around 1.45% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 1.82% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.077 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 82% probability for today are going to be TOP 4.231 BOT 4.08 GOLD/ GC Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5630 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.88% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 1.1% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 19.86 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 84% probability for today are going to be TOP 1835 BOT 1795 SILVER /SL Futures 19 May 2022 Based on the HV measures from the last 5630 candles our expected volatility for today is around 1.68% However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 2.1% This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.45 With this information our top and bottom , with close to 84% probability for today are going to be TOP 21.88 BOT 20.98
COMEX:SI1!
by exlux
Jamie's Gun2Head - Selling Copper Trade Idea: Selling Copper on 50% pullback Reasoning: Rallied into resistance level, looking to continue move lower Entry Level : 4.2170 Take Profit Level: 4.0370 Stop Loss: 4.2440 Risk/Reward: 6.67:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Signal_Centre