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Copper

COPPER is one of the best investments on a 2 year basisInvestors looking for value long-term better have a look at Copper, which has been consolidating ever since its May 2021 All Time High (ATH). The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting all this time, indicating that the market has found a new long-term demand zone where buyers step in. The last time a similar demand level on the 1W MA50 took place was half-way through Copper's historic parabolic rally of the 2000s. In particular, in February 2004, the market made a similar High (red flag), then turned sideways into a +1 year accumulation period, when again the 1W MA50 was supporting. Eventually that demand level initiated the last and more aggressive part of this rally during 2005-2006. The 1W RSI sequences between the accumulation phases of today and 2004 are also identical. The 2006 rally peaked a little higher than the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. That should be a solid benchmark for long-term investors looking for value. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMEX:HG1!Long
by TradingShot
1
Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Copper! Macro series pt4Part 4 This is the fourth part of the macro analysis series. In this part we'll focus on analyzing the current situation of the commodities market based on fundamental and technical analysis, while trying to map out the future depending on how the Fed and the economy move. The key focus here will be on Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Copper. You can find the rest of the analysis on the links down below. The final component of our analysis will be some major commodities and more specifically Oil, Natural Gas, Copper and Gold. Oil and Natural gas have played a huge role in the inflation story as both of them have risen dramatically over the last 1-1.5 years. Oil and Natural gas are the largest component of determining energy prices, while energy prices are pretty much an input to every economic calculation. Therefore, the clearer the outlook on the energy sector, the clearer our outlook on inflation. At the moment Oil is in a very strong and clean bullish uptrend, with 100$+ oil in the next few months or years being possible. When it comes to oil, on the one hand demand is slightly below what it was in Jan 2020 and is expected to keep dropping, while on the other hand production is lower than what it was back then. Demand was actually pretty low for many years post GFC relative to what it was before the GFC, and the bad financial conditions indicate that we won’t have a major change there for the foreseeable future. In terms of supply, the 3 key components are 1. OPEC+ deciding to keep output low 2. Many producers going bankrupt in the bear market and especially in the April 2020 crash and banks not lending to oil producers, 3. Many oil wells haven’t been re-opened since that crash because it takes a while to do so, but also because of all the ESG mandates. Due to the ‘green movement’ there are less explorations, drills and overall operations of oil wells, something that isn’t going to change any time soon. Pretty much the same goes for Natural gas too, even though the situation there is a bit different, at least for Europe. In Europe its price went up 36x in just 18 months, as more and more people had been lured in the trap of low prices, thinking they will stay low forever. Well, let’s say that that was never the case, especially when Europe is getting most of its natural gas from Russia, a country with which it has had tensions historically. Won’t get into the politics as to what is going on Europe and Russia at the moment, but focus on the fact that higher energy prices have been a huge problem for the world and especially Europe, as they’ve destroyed a lot of wealth. Energy prices going higher, which seems to be the case based on the charts could inflict even more damage. On the bright side however both Oil and Natural gas might not be far off from putting a major top in. Based on technical analysis, crude oil prices are overbought and are showing signs of divergence, while there is plenty of resistance in the 90-100$ range. Natural gas prices in Europe went parabolic in such a fashion, that it is hard to imagine the pressures will continue, especially as we are half way through the winter and demand for NatGas will go down… naturally. Everyone is slowly moving to other sources of energy, and this could be potentially why oil keeps going higher, while Natural gas both in the US & Europe got cheaper. The difference between NatGas prices in Europe and US is stark as European prices are insanely higher, so at the moment it looks like prices in the US could appreciate significantly, while in Europe they could chop for a bit and then start going down in the spring. To sum up the energy outlook, higher energy prices are actually likely in the short term, so they could push the Fed even more to raise rates, but in the medium to long term we could see Oil go back down to 50-60$ before it shoots up again. Let’s now close with the major metals, Gold and Copper. Gold had started rallying since Sep 2018, when bond yields started coming down while the Fed was hiking rates. Then it kept rallying and in August 2020 in made new ATHs and broke the 2000$ mark. At that point everyone thought Gold would go to 3000-5000$ due to the Fed doing QE and keep interest rates low. Little did they know, as the Fed doesn’t print money and Gold was the biggest proof that the inflation in 2021 wasn’t really caused by fiscal or monetary policy. Some could say that gold had rallied enough, buy the rumor sell the news, the crypto stole its thunder and so on... and although these might have played a role, they still don’t explain how gold hasn’t really moved for more than a year. Now as real rates are going higher, Gold could go down significantly, something confirmed by technical analysis as it is looking pretty weak. It failed miserably to get back above its ATHs and that failed ATH breakout seems to have been a bull trap. On its chart vs the USD we can see 2 major areas with some double/triple/quadruple bottoms that are ready to be broken, as well as the 1300-1400 breakout zone that was never retested. At the moment it is still holding and there is hope for Gold, so maybe investors betting on a policy error is what could revive gold from here. Breaking and closing below the current diagonal support would be bearish, but closing below 1670 would be very bearish. Until it closes above 1940, we remain neutral/bearish. Copper had a really huge rally from its March 2020 lows, one that was bigger than that of Gold, despite the fact that it took Copper about 9 extra months to break its ATHs. Some interesting facts are that Copper essentially had no pullbacks for months, but like Gold, once it broke above its ATHs it fell back down and chopping right below its ATHs. This could be yet another example as to how a drop in production, as well as increased demand due to Copper usage in the ‘green revolution’, were able to make Copper skyrocket. However, someone could attribute this and the rise of other commodities to speculation, in a similar fashion like in the aftermath of the GFC. We have a major shock; markets have a massive dump, the Fed starts talking about printing money, everyone panics and starts speculating on commodities, and all that while several producers have gone offline. Once the supply and demand imbalances start clearing out, once speculative money stops running in and the government/Fed stimulus runs out, markets roll over. Of course, back then China played a major role in the rise of some commodities, but now even them, the world’s largest producer seems to have slowed down. The second largest economy in the world is in big trouble, and there is no way this doesn’t affect the rest of the world heavily. Again, Copper has some interesting dynamics, and is also affected by ESG mandates, as the ‘green advocates’ are fighting against oil or copper producers because mining is damaging the environment, yet they actually need those things to build the tools to facilitate the green revolution. When it comes to comparing Gold’s and Copper’s charts, it is clear that Copper looks a lot more bullish than Gold. Both of them are sitting below their 2011 ATHs, though Copper is sitting above its 2006-2008 highs and somebody could call its consolidation since May bullish. It does look a bit like a penant, so a close above 5% could send the price to 8-9$. However, in the case of major turbulence in the macro environment, it could dump and head down to 3-3.7$.
TVC:USOIL
by BitcoinMacro
45
HG1! (COPPER) STILL IN A TRIANGLEHG1! (COPPER) is still making a triangle on the primary degree 4th wave. We will finish the triangle around 61.8% or 78.6% of Fibonacci. The 78.6% area is also a trend-line support zone. With the high chance, we will rebound from the trend-line area. Wave E can take further time to develop. DISCLOSURE - Please be informed that the information I provide is not a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of my work is for educational purposes only. All labeling and wave count have been done by me manually and I will keep changing according to the LIVE MARKET PRICE ACTION. So don't bias, hope on my trade plans. Try to learn Elliott Wave or other strategies and make your own strategy. Following is not that much easy. I am not responsible for any losses if u took the trade according to my trade plans. #HG #HG1! #COPPER
COMEX:HG1!
by anantadhungana
Feb 10, 22 Copper Sell Almost TimeDr. Copper is almost ready to embark on a SELL of epic proportions - at least that's what the MACD Indicator is telling us. When the blue line crosses over the red line heading down? Oh boy!! Notice that you are looking at the Monthly Chart. If you check on the web for monthly charts for Copper re MACD history, you will find that when this 'DEATH CROSS' occurs, there is usually a recession (which we will be in sometime over the next several months), a stock meltdown (which we will be in sometime over the next several months), and more or less 'the world is ending' feeling (which we will be in sometime over the next several months). When you look at the MACD the red and blue line are very very close, and with todays sell off it is getting even closer. I'm not saying that this is a trade that's going to happen next week, but definately sometime over the next few months - just something I'm keeping an eye on to make a lot of money. I hope you do too :-) HEIKO
COMEX:HG1!Short
by HEIKOTradingSystem
9
COPPER LOOKS BEARISH ON INTRA-DAY - Elliott waveWe are tracking a big impulse to the downside, from the 4.58 lvl. on COPPER. Red waves 1 and 2 are completed, so current price action from 26th of January can be a big wave 3 in the making, with its five-wave substructure, and can target the Fib. ratio of 1.618, where support can be seen. Intra-day price activity suggests a minor correction in action (iv), which can look for resistance at the fib. ratio of 0.382/0.5, from where a final leg lower for a sub-wave iii of 3 may show up.
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by Gravity33
Bargain hunters go shopping into tech and support US IndexesMorning Jumpstart Macro View and US market recap 31-01-22 US ended the week with a bang as bargain hunters went shopping to support the broader US market. Tech was again the favoured stocks which lifted the SP500 while the DOW lagged the enthusiasm. There may be some end of month window dressing on the cards also which may have provided some support. For a deeper look at the price action, key levels and what I see playing out...watch the video and feel free to leave any comments. View more at www.tradethestructure.com
CBOT:ZB1!
by TradeTheStructure
2
GOLD: A run to $2K? Looks bullish right?As the DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ begin to shake up, it is expected that investors will park capital in GOLD. However, gold has historically under performed leading up to the Feds decision on interest rates. In the short-term, I think GOLD will re-test the $1500 area. A clear bullish pennant can be seen as of now, but I will wait for the pattern to develop more before adding to my position. (The monthly MA100 is at $1444.01) __________________________________________________________________________ - A bullish pennant indicates an upward continuation in price ;)
TVC:GOLD
by TTECH
Sell COPPER As a basic observation in The Monthly chart of copper Futures (HG1) . Copper reached during the last year it's highest levels since 2011 breaking its all time high . As a result of the high demand from china in 2020 and the lower production from the miners in Chile and Peru . In the other hand the Chart has shown selling configuration .There's a high probability that the prices might visit the 4.7 level before it starts dropping down and visit some of the lowest levels passing by $3.5 - $3 as first target in the next few month and if the price breaks down this level then the target will be $2.5 , and there is a lot of fundamental reasons . -Lately the Li Keqiang Index has dropped down as sign of china's Industrial situation . and as known the high correlation between Copper and the Li Keqiang and it lower the demand on copper in 2022 . -Chile started rising its production rate so this will affect the supply in the market . -The US federal Bank has been declared that they will rise The Interest rate by the end of March and it will affect all industrial and technological sectors.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by ossamaouadih
6
BULL ANALYSIS (Wyckoff Reaccumulation) - COPPER (HG1!) - 1DWHAT WE HAVE Daily Wyckoff Reaccumulation pattern Monthly / weekly linear up trend Bull monthly channel (waiting for contact with resistance) WHAT I THINK One of the best view we can see here for a reaccumulation and continuation setup. This isn't a signal for entry on market for the moment but here we have the context. Should we expect a spring ? No, I don't think so, volumes decrease during all the reaccumulation, furthermore creek have been already jumped. So I will more expect a retest of the creek support. With a signal in it, it should be a nice entry spot, but if you prefer wait for a spring and doesn't happen, don't jump in market desperately. You will have to wait signal on the last point of support after SOS like I will do if we don't have signal around the creek support. It's always frustrating to buy the top of the range but it's always better to enter in a strategy pattern than on emotional reaction. What should we target if plans happens ? First target should be the top of the monthly channel with profit taking. Before that always secure your losses to breakeven. If you enter around creek support or on a spring, it's important to be breakeven at the moment you see the SOS appears (it's not fool to take profit on it too). Market can always reject the price and go down again to the support or even worse go for a more deep consolidation. After that, if we reach the top of the channel : if you see short signals on it, close your position ; if we break it, just let run your profits to higher targets. Macro economically we have a good setup to see the materials sector growth, we are in an up trend on every higher timeframe, we have continuation pattern, stars are aligned to see nice move in this way. Like I say frequently : "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions" . Here we have probabilities and strategy so don't let your emotions guide you and follow your plans. PS : Apologize for my english, I do my best. I wish you all success you need for 2022, on every side !
COMEX:HG1!Long
by Kentg
8