just an ideafind it interesting, this is the sum of all commodities divided by the money supply.
probably doesn't mean anything, anyway interesting.
Looking at the parabolic route of m2 and the commodities basket divided by it didn't move as expected because of it's rally the rally. lot's of money still in the markets.
give me your perspective and ideas
Copper
Copper back up to $4.40 ?Coppers trading range is narrowing quite a bit.
initially i got my timiing wrong on this (see other analysis), but now seems to be teh right time for a reversal breakout upwards.
expect copper to head up to $4.40. will need to reassess there to decide which way next.
overall long term expecting copper down.
Copper Selling WinnerCopper this morning was in a slow fall getting pressure from PSAR so I put in a sell order at 4.3295 seeing if price action would break down past 4.3 - Once it did it quickly hit my Take Profit of 100 points, my usual for Copper, at 4.3195. Now to monitor to see if Price Action will reverse and I can do it all again on the way up :-)
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 27 – Another drop is close Last week, we correctly anticipated Copper to start a correction that will push the price towards the resistance level.
In the coming days, we are expecting short-term bullish momentum until it reaches the resistance area. Afterwards, we anticipate the price to make another drop and break the support.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
Altamira Gold (ALTA) Unlocking ApiacasThis has been a superb ride since 2019.
In terms of the review, let's consider the following parts:
Altamira
Gold
Copper
↳ On the Altamira side...
Apiacas is the rainmaker, for context, after five years of waiting they were awarded this massive land package in the largest producer area in the belt. According to very good sources they have at least 1m/oz cooking here. Induced polarisation is already underway (this is where they pump a current through the rock and it comes back quicker if there are sulphates etc). For those who read the latest press release you will have seen very interesting readings there and positive signs, and with drilling starting this month drilling into 100-150m depth and they will look at gaging how far this goes down and start the next chapter.
We are +650% from the lows with both targets above cleared. A home-run for 2020 was the expectation, and a home-run was what was delivered from the Altamira Team. Very well done to those who " swung the bat " and are still holding from 4c/5c !!!
It ought to be known by everyone that is following the flows here that we have a final slingshot move cooking towards $2 in play over the coming Quarters. Highly recommend tracking 25c which is going to be STRONG support over the Summer, we look set for a quick test before a slingshot towards our final targets. For those asking about Gold (which I will come onto next) and if prices drop there, cost of production for these guys is around circa $500/oz, so it's irrelevant for the most part.
↳ On the Gold side...
We were tracking the highs in 2020 for Gold coming miles ahead of inflation, which is important, because the position only appears to be a temporary one, whereas in reality it can be opened up at any point via risk and further contractions in globalisation. This is true for almost 80% of private assets as we are witnessing a decisive move of capital from Public to Private markets.
All the cases of CPI overshoots just show that the function of Gold is not simply consisting of inflationary expectations, rather respective to confidence in the Public Sector. I would recommend looking to the work of Martin Armstrong - for those who have insomnia, a few pages of his work around inflation before bed time is the perfect cure.
After the test of $1,680 we successfully completed the 4th wave targets, before attempting a quick test of the highs in Wave 5, which was more skilfully rejected by sellers on the CPI overshoots. A very wide range is now in play which will be enough to take out the amateurs (and in some cases, masters too!!). For those wondering whether to start withdrawing troops, I will be updating a detailed Gold chart separately this week, as mentioned earlier, is really irrelevant from an Altamira perspective.
↳ On the Copper side...
Sure ok @ridethepig but why is Copper here and what does that have to do with anything?
Santa Helena is the third leg to the stool, this is where they have a lot of copper and other minerals. They have just put a lot of Subject Matter Experts (SME's) out there to put together the exploration program there to target the high grade gold veins, and secondly the copper source. This is also at Apiacas, I think there is probably a lot of Copper there too, will keep an ear to the ground there and keep this one updated.
The financing they have achieved is going to allow them to eventually spin off Apiacas and etc into different vehicles but not till we finish the moves in Copper. For those tracking the Copper chart, it is pulling back from the highs as widely expected. We are going to mark the Wave (4) lows somewhere around $3.30 in Q3 right on time for Santa Helena in Q4 for a move into $5.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming!
ridethepig | Copper for the Yearly Close📌 Copper for the Yearly Close
First with an immediate review of the flows.
We were tracking for the capitulation low which was our moment to advance...
It was a great choice of moment to load the longs.
Extending the belief in commodity shortages which have been entering into play all year long. The highs are worth striving for, all factors remain the same with the macro picture still equal. The main cases where this will play an additional note too at China and Australia flows which is something to consider.
After clearing our first targets it's time to aim for the 4.5 main impulsive zone. A flyaway break is in play with such a bullish close, which is generally not very common. Of course the last time this happened was in the early 2000's; and we exploded.
As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 26 – Expecting another drop.Last week, we correctly anticipated Copper to start a correction that will push the price towards the resistance level.
In the coming days, we are expecting the pullback to end around the confluence between the trendline and the resistance area, before dropping towards a new low.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
Ammo Inc. ($POWW) - Excellent Risk and Reward OpportunityAmmo Inc presents itself as an excellent opportunity in a market where a large number of stocks are significantly overvalued. Ammunition, as we know it, has been booming for a while since the pandemic and we're now in a shortage, which has allowed this business to position itself very nicely going forward.
Roth has labeled a $9 price target on the business. Subsequent to the valuation, it was announced that Ammo Inc. has been included in the June 4th preliminary list of member additions to the Russell 2000® Index and the Russell Microcap® Index, which become effective upon the opening of the US stock markets on June 28, as part of the 2021 Russell indexes reconstitution.
About (taken from their website):
AMMO, Inc. is a high-quality, technology-driven ammunition U.S.-based company; from our patented STREAK (R), HyperClean, and military ammunition technologies, to the latest and best manufacturing technology in the industry. Our manufacturing facilities and processes meet or exceed all SAAMI and MilSpec specifications.
Fundamentally, the company has established itself well and the underlying data can be found at FinViz
Technically speaking, the Risk/Reward opportunity is excellent. We can see it has broken out to the upside and has retested the $7.00 mark (the upper trend line) to validate the breakout. Let's be mindful of where this stands after next Friday's close. If we close below $7.00 next Friday, I'll be unwinding my position.
I have marked the Stops and Take Profit levels here accordingly.
Good luck and be sure to maintain your stops accordingly.
Jun 25, 2021 Copper WinnerCopper was in a sideways pattern since about 3am. I put in a Sell order for 4.3200 in case price action moved, which it did around 7:15am. Price action moved down through my 30 HMA and I put my usual Take Profit at 100 points, 4.3100 which it did in less than 1 hour. Again, price action continued moving down but I always like to take my profit and run :-)
Jun 24, 2021 Copper Early Bird WinnerPerfect setup for Copper this morning as soon as I woke up. In checking Copper chart you can see the sideways pattern with PSAR supporting for hours. I put a buy order in at 4.2900 and just in time, because just after 6am in less than 15 minutes, price action rose straight up through my 30 HMA and hit my TP at 2.3000 for a quick 100 point profit. Great start to the morning.
copper premarket. probably getting too specific.I think copper will continue to rise. Copper is a useful metal for lots of electronic devices.
Point of control might act as a magnet to draw price higher.
In march through april copper was at a decision point, and markets decided it was in high demand. I would be surprised if price went back lower through that heavily traded range. If I was ordering copper for a large company I would probably feel like I'm getting a relatively good deal and/or a good deal may be running away from me if I don't act with haste.
Jun 23,2021 Copper WinnerCopper was in a sideways channel when I woke up and checked it out. Through the 7am hour it stayed sideways but started looking like it might break up, as my 30 HMA was starting to turn from red to green. I put a buy order in at 4.2700 with a Take Profit at 4.2800 for a quick 100 points. Then it broke up and PSAR changed it up it shot and hit my TP within 30 minutes. Great start to a Wednesday :-)
Vox Royalty Exploration UpdateVox Royalty tells shareholders to look forward to a ‘catalyst-rich’ second half of 2021
www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk
Vox Royalty Corp (CVE:VOX) provided its shareholders with funding and exploration updates from five of its 50 operating partners.
The high-growth precious metals-focused royalty company noted each partner had been busy advancing their respective projects with studies, sampling and drill programs.
Highlights from the exploration update include, the expansion of the Puzzle North discovery at the Australian Ulysses project, a 221% increase in measured and indicated resource at Pitombeiras in Brazil and the commencement of a modern mining study for the potential restart of mining operations at the Lynn Lake nickel-copper-cobalt sulphide project in Canada.
Copper is hit by both hike of I/R and China decision20-06-2021
In the past week, some of the inflationary pressure in the market dissipated with a major sell-off across the commodities complex. The Fed’s policy talk helped spur a surge in the dollar, which was part of the reason for the selling.
But the first catalyst was a move by China to cool the hot commodities markets. Reuters reported that a Chinese government agency planned to release reserves of aluminum, copper and zinc caused the price to plunge.
TP: $3.85
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 25 – Pullback expected.Last week, Copper started a bearish rally that stopped around the support level.
In the coming day, we are expecting a pullback to occur and drive the price towards the resistance zone highlighted on our chart.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
Traditional market analysis 18/06/2021 #4The reflation trade seems to be over although there is still some hope. The FOMC meeting seems to have been the catalyst to confirm the end, but that reversal was brewing for quite some time. We had excess speculation, we had people truly believe this wasn't transitory... and we might get some persistent inflation due to supply constraints, but this isn't due to demand being high. Bitcoin & Crypto reversed months ago and that was the first sign of weakness. Bonds have bottomed for quite some time and Inflation expectations have also started rolling over. They seemed to have been in the same cyclical pattern as they were in 2008-2010 and nothing more than that. Of course this could continue for another year mainly due to oil going higher, as I am still bullish on it given the supply constraints and how good the chart looks like. Oil alone going higher doesn't mean we have true reflation, but some demand coming back and not enough supply which might take 1-2 years to get back. 63-67 Seems strong support for oil.
Bonds have had a very clear reversal and a very clear bottom and now they have formed a mini uptrend. I don't believe yields will fully crash or that we are going below zero soon, but I also don't believe they will go way lower soon. Usually when we get such a top like the one we go in March 2020 things don't come back super strong (look at UB & TLT), especially as we are closer to the 0 bound. Currently this looks like another typical correction for bonds... so if they keep going higher the hopes for inflation get crushed. And that's normal because the world is drowning in debt and soon people will have to start paying back their debts as things are re-opening. However the problem is that the economies are not in a good shape and the covid shock isn't one that can be ignored. The damage has been huge.
Bonds & USD going higher isn't a good sign, especially as the USD seems to be breaking out. It has now closed above the 200 DMA for the second time and not only that, but for example when looking at GBPUSD we see a clear breakdown for the GBP. Until it breaks 1.43 this could be a pretty bearish signal. Maybe this move is an overreaction and nothing happens, but we need to be aware that certain trends are showing weakness and it is better to wait before stepping in. Now stocks aren't in such a bad state, at least not yet. I am worried a bit that this very low volatility + some other catalyst could send them much lower. Maybe Tech stocks are the ones that benefit the most from lower yields, but smaller stocks could suffer. Nasdaq still looking strong and during such a period it could benefit the most if the rest don't have a mega crash. If everything crashes, then I would expect it to roll over too. Metals like Copper and Silver have also dropped a lot, but it isn't over for them. They are at support, but if the USD keeps going up along with bonds they might suffer more because real rates will be going higher again.
The truth is that the current move have been pretty large on FX and Metals so we might take a break here. After that we can re-evaluate what is going to happen. Stocks are still in a large bullish trend at least in the long term but if everything else has reversed I think stocks will eventually be affected. Now when it comes to Central banks, their moves will be such to test the market, potentially cause a correction and then they buy the dip. Essentially this is what they've been doing willingly or unwillingly. They can't really raise rates with debt levels so high but they are bluffing. They are essentially trying to manage expectations and actually claim they tamed inflation, when the inflationary trend (reflation) was already reversing. People believe they are so powerful and they know what they are doing... but they really don't. It isn't QE or their actions that create results, but people actually believe that they are powerful. The Fed is in the business of managing expectations, not money.
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Copper Elliott Wave Idea - Bullish Cycle Started?Taking a look at something other than Crude Oil for a change.
It appears that Copper is out of a 10 year bear cycle and a bull cycle started in 2016.
A look at the beginning; you can see wave 3 hit the 4.618 extension of wave 1 perfectly and then corrected perfectly to the 0.236 level for wave 4 >
If you add in the subwaves of wave 5 there is also a nice 0.236 correction of wave 3 for wave 4 >
All that would suggest an impulse move up and 4.0505 was the end of a larger degree wave 1.
If you look at the following years from 2006 to 2016 it appears to be a multi-year correction in the form of WXYXZ > It completed at exactly the 0.618 level at 1.9300 >
Looking at recent time it looks as though the first impulse wave up is completed and now in the correction, possibly to the 0.618 retracement area before up for wave 3 >
A look at daily level we could be in wave B of Y > the 0.618 extension lines up nicely with the 0.618 retracement level.
Something to keep an eye on I think as it could turn out to be a nice long trade with a stop loss below 1.9260