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Copper

COPPER signaling the start of rate cuts? Potential danger ahead.Copper (HG1!) completed two straight red months following May's High at the top of the 3-year Rising Wedge pattern. Last time the commodity formed this pattern was back from May 2006 to September 2008. In fact the recent May 2024 Higher High resembles that of May 2008, whose rejection broke the Rising Wedge downwards. As you can see, during both patterns, the US10Y (orange trend-line) stopped rising and turned sideways on Lower Highs, while the U.S. Interest Rate had peaked and started falling. What 2006 - 2008 suggests, is that possible rate cuts may be ahead of us, pragmatically the markets have already priced this to a large percentage in September. But at the same time, it highlights the danger of a market-wide collapse, as the first month after the September 2007 rate cut, the stock markets peaked and the U.S. Housing Crisis begun. What could be different this time and avert a new financial crisis of such proportions is that the stock markets haven't shown any signs of correcting yet. As a result, potential rate cuts may have a mostly positive bullish continuation effect as post July 2019. What do you think will happen next? Bullish continuation or new Bear Market? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
COMEX:HG1!
by TradingShot
2
Copper (HG) - Look for Longs?While the decline in copper persists, @HG is nearing areas of previous demand on intermediate-term timeframes. Specficially, we will be watching the industrial metal's action between the prices of 4.1130-4.0605 (with hypothetical stop lower @ 4.0250). Given the current momentum and potential add'l downside per larger timeframes, we recommend watching for micro-TF trend violation/reversal confirm signals before establishing positions. This idea is bolstered by a backdrop more broadly of metals having pulled back and a AMEX:USD that looks vulnerable vs. physical assets over the longer-term. Of course "Dr. Copper" is more closely linked to the global economy vs. GC (which we like better), but price, ultimately, remains undefeated + copper will become a value buy at some point... Godspeed, JHart
COMEX:HG1!Long
by LionHart_Trading
Dr. Copper: From Failed Breakouts to Fresh BreakdownsRisk assets are taking a hit. The major equity indexes are seeing red. Crude oil is slipping below eighty bucks. And gold is failing at new all-time highs. Perhaps the markets are navigating the summertime blues – a tune base and industrial metal investors have been humming for months. Dr. Copper is living up to the trading adage that from failed moves come fast moves in the opposite direction. The futures continue to fall – down almost 8 percent this week. That level coincides with a key retracement and former resistance area – a logical place for buyers to step in and defend price. On the other hand, momentum is drifting toward oversold conditions. If the 14-day RSI drops below 30, I imagine copper will reach four dollars.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by USDSZL
Potential bullish rise?Copper is currently on the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could rise to our take profit. Entry: 4.4210 Why we like it: There is an overlap support that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Stop loss: 4.3802 Why we like it: There is an overlap support that lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Take profit: 4.4843 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:COPPERLong
by VantageMarkets
Bullish bounce off 50% Fibonacci support?COPPER is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 4.5146 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 4.4253 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level which is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 4.6597 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:COPPERLong
by VantageMarkets
Macro Monday 54~Chile & Peru - Worlds Largest Copper ProducersMacro Monday 54 Chile and Peru The Largest Copper Producers in the world A staggering 36% of the global supply of copper originates from Chile and Peru. With AI, semiconductors and big tech leading the furore in markets, isn’t it any wonder that both countries are demonstrating incredible growth. Being the largest producers of copper in the world during one of the biggest tech booms in history seems like a golden era may be upon them. The wind is hitting the Chilean and Peruvian market sails hard and as investors, we need to pay close attention to these well placed emerging markets leading the way in South America. Chile is responsible for 24% of global copper production producing 5 million tons of copper ore in 2023 and Peru was the 2nd largest producer contributing to 12% of the global supply at 2.75 million tons. Copper plays a crucial role in semiconductor manufacturing which is booming at present with the likes of NVIDIA’s stock price soaring by over 1000% since Oct 2022. Copper is used for the connecting components via patterns on the wafer chips, it is very conductive minimizing energy and speed loss during signal transmission, its malleable for intricate wiring, and it manages/dissipates heat very well. Copper is also combined with other materials like silicon dioxide to create complex structures like transistors, capacitors and resistors. All these components are absolutely essential for semiconductors, technology hardware and general computing, meaning the demand for copper from both these countries is likely to continue. Chile is also the 2nd largest Lithium producer in the world giving it an additional advantage in the battery market. Chile GDP Growth According to the Chilean Central Bank GDP growth rate of up to 3% can be expected in 2024. The central bank in the world's largest copper producer also estimated copper prices to average $3.85 per pound in 2024, up from a previous forecast of $3.80 per pound. Copper is currently at $4.64 per pound and looks to be rising (previously having hit $5.19. This may suggest the Central Banks assertions have been modest across the board. Main Produce/Exports Chile plays a significant role on the global stage in several key areas: Copper: Chile is the world’s largest copper producer. Its abundant copper mines contribute significantly to global supply. ▫️ Lithium: As the second largest lithium producer, Chile benefits from the growing demand for lithium used in batteries for energy storage. This mineral has become an important source of exports and fiscal revenue for the country. ▫️ Renewable Energy: Chile is richly endowed with solar and wind resources. It has a comparative advantage in renewable energy production, with solar and wind costs lower than fossil fuels. The country’s shift toward renewable energy could boost economic activity and contribute to the global green transition. ▫️ Cobalt (Emerging): While not currently the largest producer, Chile aims to become one of the top three cobalt producing nations. This ambitious plan aligns with its efforts to boost copper output. Cobalt is primarily used in lithium-ion batteries, powering devices like smartphones, laptops, and electric vehicles. These contributions position Chile as a dynamic player in global markets now and into the future. Population Chile has a population of 19.6 million people of which c. 68% are between the age of 15 - 64 years of age. c.19% of the population are under the age of 14. Chile’s population growth has been decreasing since 1990 due to a declining birth rate a thus this would be a long term concern for the sustainability of the workforce. Demographic and History Chile was colonized by the Spanish and the main language spoken here is Spanish. White non-indigenous now make up almost 90% of the population with the native Mapuche makes up most of the remaining 10%. However, a genetic study found that the average Chilean’s genes are approximately 35% Amerindian (native) and 64% Caucasian. Many Chileans self-identify as white, while others identify as mestizo or indigenous The Spanish colonization of Chile began in the 16th century when Spanish conquistadors started to explore and settle the region. Chile remained a colony until 1818, when it gained independence from Spain. During this period, the settlers focused on agriculture due to limited precious metal resources. The colony’s economic development was marked by exports of agricultural produce, saltpeter (potassium nitrate), and later, as we are aware copper. Peru GDP Growth Rate According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Peru’s GDP will rise to 2.3% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. These increases are supported by more favorable financial conditions and reduced inflation that will bolster domestic demand. Main Produce/Exports Peru has made significant strides in various sectors, becoming a major player on the global stage. Here are some notable areas where Peru stands out: Blueberries: In just a decade, Peru has transformed from having virtually zero blueberry plantations to becoming the world’s largest exporter of blueberries. With more than $1.36 billion worth of blueberries sold overseas last year, it ranks third in global production, behind only China and the US – however is the lead exporter. Copper: Peru is a significant copper producer, with major mines like Cerro Verde leading the way. Peru achieved a steady production of 2.75 million metric tons, surpassing the Democratic Republic of Congo and securing its position as the world’s second largest copper producer. Natural Gas: Pluspetrol Resources Corp, Hunt Consolidated, and Repsol are the largest producers of natural gas in Peru, contributing to the country’s energy sector. Agricultural Exports: While not the largest producer, Peru is a major exporter of agricultural products. For instance, it supplies a significant portion of the world’s asparagus and avocados. Peru supplies approximately 10% of the world’s avocados and around 20% of the global asparagus supply. Peru is the 2nd largest Avocado producer in the world. These achievements highlight Peru’s diverse contributions to the global economy. Population Peru has a population of 34.4 million people of which c.66% are between the age of 15 – 64 years of age. c.25% of the population are under the age of 14. . Peru’s population growth is driven by factors such as a historically higher birth rate than the death rate, urbanization, improved life expectancy, and immigration (people from Bolivia, Ecuador, and Colombia have moved to Peru for work and other reasons). The latter suggests that Peru is turning into a country of opportunity for many South Americans. Demographic and History Peru is a multiethnic country formed by the amalgamation of different cultures and ethnicities over thousands of years. The Spanish conquest of the Inca Empire was a pivotal campaign during the Spanish colonization of the Americas. In 1532, conquistador Francisco Pizarro and his allies captured the Inca emperor Atahualpa, marking the first step in a long campaign. Over decades of fighting, the Spanish ultimately triumphed in 1572, leading to the colonization of the region as the Viceroyalty of Peru. The conquest had far-reaching effects, including spin-off campaigns in present-day Chile and Colombia, as well as expeditions into the Amazon Basin. The Inca Empire, once spanning vast territories, was assimilated into the Spanish Empire Approximately 60% of Peruvians self-identify as Mestizos, representing mixed Spanish and Amerindian ancestry. Around 20% of the population identifies with Quechua heritage, while about 5% have European ancestry. Additionally, 3% of Peruvians have African roots, and 2% identify as Aymara’s. This rich ethnic diversity contributes to Peru’s unique culture and multicultural identity. Peruvians exhibit a fascinating genetic diversity shaped by their complex history. Let's explore some key findings: 1. Chachapoyas Resilience: Contrary to historical accounts, genetic and linguistic research suggests that the ancient Chachapoya people (referred to as "Warriors of the Clouds") fared better than previously believed. Despite Inca conquests and colonial rule, their cultural and genetic traces endured. The Chachapoyas' fortresses and sarcophagi in the Amazonian cloud forests remain a testament to their resilience. 2. Amerindian Ancestry: Modern Peruvians have predominantly Amerindian genetic ancestry. This includes indigenous populations from the Andean, Amazonian, and Coastal regions of Peru. 3. European Influence: Many Peruvians are descendants of Spanish settlers from the colonial era. Additionally, European ethnic groups (such as Italians, Germans, British, French, Irish, Dutch, Portuguese, Polish, and Croats) arrived in the 19th and 20th centuries, contributing to the genetic mix. 4. High-Altitude Adaptation: A genetic mutation in the EPAS1 gene helps Andean highlanders thrive at high altitudes by lowering haemoglobin levels in their blood. This adaptation allows them to cope with the challenges of living in mountainous regions. In summary, Peruvian genetics reflect a rich tapestry of indigenous heritage, European influence, and adaptations to diverse environments. Peru has the 2nd largest city in South America Its worth noting that the largest city in Peru, Lima (the capital) is the 2nd most populated city in the whole of South America with 10 million people after São Paulo in Brazil which has 22.8 million people. Founded in 1535 as the Ciudad de los Reyes (Spanish for “City of Kings”), it is situated in the valleys of the Chillón, Rímac, and Lurín Rivers, overlooking the Pacific Ocean. Lima serves as the political, cultural, financial, and commercial centre of the country. Now for some great charts for both Chile and Peru which suggest these countries indexed ETF’s will soar in coming months and years. 📈CHARTS iShares MSCI Chile ETF- AMEX:ECH The iShares MSCI Chile ETF (ECH) seeks to track the investment results of a broad-based index composed of the largest market cap weighted Chilean equities. As of the most recent data available, its top holdings include: 1.Sociedad Quimica Y Minera De Chile: A major chemical and mining company. 2.Banco De Chile: One of Chile’s largest banks. 3.Banco Santander Chile: Another prominent bank. 4.Empresas CMPC SA: A diversified company with interests in forestry, paper, and packaging. 5.Empresas COPEC SA: Involved in energy, forestry, and retail. 6.Enel Americas SA: A utility company. 7.Banco de Credito e Inversiones SA: A financial institution. 8.LATAM Airlines Group SA: A major airline. 9.Falabella SA: A retail conglomerate. These holdings represent a diverse mix of sectors within the Chilean economy. Lets look at the chart. Monthly Candlestick Chart ▫️ You can clearly see a pennant forming and compressing price. Bollinger bands are also very tight on this monthly chart suggesting a break out is looming. ▫️ You can observe a series of higher lows with wicks pressing up price which is major positive. ▫️ There is a great Risk to Reward trade structure which is essentially a 10:1 reward to risk trade. ▫️ A break above the Point of Control (the red line) would be a positive signal. The wind at our back in this trade As discussed above, factoring in that Chile is projected to have a 3% GDP growth in 2024 and holds a significant strategic mining position in providing 24% of the worlds copper during a tech boom, the country is likely to continue to perform, as will its major mining and agriculture companies in the coming years. Being the 2nd largest producer of Lithium globally (critical to the battery market) and aiming to be the 3rd largest producer of cobalt (critical to lithium-ion batteries) will further enrich and contribute to this budding economy. MSCI Peru NTR Index - $MPU! The MSCI Peru NTR Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the Peruvian market. It covers approximately 85% of the Peruvian equity universe and consists of 3 main constituents. Here are the top three components of the index: 1.Credicorp: A major financial institution in Peru. 2.Southern Copper Corporation: A significant player in the mining industry, particularly in copper. 3.Buenaventura Minas ADR: A company engaged in mining and exploration activities. These constituents collectively are the main contribution to the index’s representation of the Peruvian equity market. •NTR: Net Total Return. This means the index accounts for dividends (income generated by holding the stocks) and adjusts for withholding taxes. ▫️ We can clearly observe an ascending triangle that has broken out to new all-time highs. ▫️ There is a stricter trade (only allowing for 4.5% downside) as it is only a 3:1 reward to risk but the trade has potential to be a 6:1 if the 1.618 fib ext level is reached. ▫️ Price could bounce at the recent lows at approx. $3,160 however that would be reaching towards an 8 ▫️ 10% loss that we cannot entertain on this trade as it only 3:1 reward to risk in lessor case scenario. It is worth noting that iShares also have Peru ETF Index which appears to suggest a breakout from a larger first forming pennant has occurred. The components for the index differ from the above. iShares MSCI Peru and Global Exposure ETF - AMEX:EPU This index has not performed as well as the above MSCI Peru NTR Index - $MPU!, however it provides a lower denomination at $51.43 a share and does suggests that a major breakout might be on the horizon, similar to the breakout on the NTR index. Could it just be following its tracks? The structure of the EPU is different to the MPU! In summary the difference between them is that the EPU generally only invests 80% of its assets into the component securities of the MSCI Peru All Capped Index whilst the remaining 20% (and this is main difference) can be, if warranted, more actively managed and utilised in futures, options, swap contracts, cash equivalents and securities not included but are believed to track or outperform the index. The chart looks very interesting: ▫️ We have a first formed long term pennant. What is so interesting is that the some other South American Countries like Brazil in the iShares Brazil Index AMEX:EWZ chart and the iShares Latin America 40 , all have similar pennant patterns forming but seem to be lagging and have not broken out. Could this suggest that Peru and Chile are leading all these pennants which will eventually lead to a Latin America Emerging Market major opportunity? Time will tell…but its looking promising. ▫️ The above chart has a short term 4:1 Reward to Risk with long term major upside potential. The wind at our back in this trade Peru is projected to have a to 2.3% GDP growth rate in 2024 increasing to 2.8% by 2025. Similar to Chile, Peru is a global leader in copper production coming in as the 2nd largest producer in the world after Chile. This means Peru will benefit from providing copper for the tech, AI and semiconductor boom much like Chile. Peru is also the largest exporter in the world of Blueberries and is the 2nd largest exporter of avocados. Peru hosts the 2nd most populous city in the whole of South America, Lima which has 10 million people, coming 2nd only to Sao Paulo in Brazil with 22.8 million people. Peru has population growth is considered to be increasing and people from Bolivia, Ecuador, and Colombia have been increasingly moving to Peru for work and other reasons. The latter suggests that Peru is turning into a country of opportunity for many South Americans. From a review of all of the above, Peru appears to be firmly in growth mode and is attracting people from neighbouring countries as one of the new burgeoning hubs of South America. Gold Production: Chile vs Peru. I am aware that copper is a by product of gold mining so I was curious was gold mining major in either countries, and was a copper, essentially just by product. Copper is more likely to be a byproduct of gold mining rather than the other way around. What I found was surprising. Chile is ranked 25th in the world for gold production whilst Peru is the world’s 9th largest gold producer accounting for approx. 3% of the global supply of gold. Leading gold producers in Peru include companies like Newmont, Pan American Silver, Hochschild Mining, Gold Fields, Compania De Minas Buenaventura SAA, and the infamous Glencore. This gives Peru quite the edge over Chile in terms of commodity diversity and quality. Notwithstanding this, Chile is undergoing promising exploration ventures at present and might in years to come become a notable gold miner/producer. We cant close off this Macro Monday without a review of the main commodity offered by Chile and Peru. Copper Futures - COMEX:HG1! Chart speaks for itself: ▫️ 10:1 reward to risk ▫️ Long term ascending triangle with 112% target ▫️ Pennant currently forming which when it breaks up or down will inform us whether to sit on our hands or pull out. ▫️ Limited 10% downside risk to a 100% potential return. ▫️ Beautiful chart demonstrating a series of higher lows with what appears to be congestion ahead of a breakout or…. Breakdown. And that’s it for this week folks, we have the wind at our backs for all of the above trades. All these charts are available on my TradingView Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next few years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide to see how Chile, Peru and the Copper Futures market are performing. I hope its helpful. PUKA
CBOE:ECH
by PukaCharts
Copper: Anticipating Potential Reversals Amid Bullish TrendFollowing a rebound at the $4.3320 Demand area, copper has started a bullish upside movement. In our analysis, we have identified two potential reversal points that align with recognized Supply areas and the seasonal trend analysis. These areas are critical for our strategy, as they indicate possible turning points in the current uptrend. Additionally, within these identified areas, there is a confluence of Fibonacci levels. While these Fibo levels are secondary in importance compared to the Supply and Demand analysis, they still provide valuable insights into potential resistance points. Given this comprehensive analysis, we are looking for short positions as copper approaches these key Supply areas. The confluence of seasonal trends, Supply area recognition, and secondary Fibonacci levels supports our anticipation of potential reversals, making this an opportune moment to prepare for short trades. ✅ Please share your thoughts about Copper in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by FOREXN1
1
Could Copper bounce from here?The price is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 4.5146 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 4.4253 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 4.6597 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:COPPERLong
by VantageMarkets
Copper (HG1!) - Ideahey guys, Yearly inside Bar - possible continuation of uptrend. 4.6400 is THE level to break on a Yearly close. Quarterly: Bearish Candles with a long wick. --> Setup is Bearish Monthly: A shooting star with a bearish Engulfing Candle. Stochastics Bearish -> at a yearly Key Level. This confirms the Quarterly Bearish Bias … Bearish Setup: Sell at a valid Resistance level with a goal to retest the 4.000 and 3.5400 area. Note: This bearish Setup will be invalid with a close above 4.4600 on the Monthly Chart. Thanks for reading
COMEX:HG1!Short
by MeruEU
Copper's Short-Term Demand Woes, Long-Term GapsCopper is known as the electrifying metal. Copper's warm glow and durable spirit, copper wires the heart of many a machine. This reddish rarity has been super bullish in the recent past but less so now. That doesn't make it less investable. Just that nuanced investing approach is called for. Outlook for copper has become mixed once more, with near term demand remaining downbeat given the continued slowdown in the Chinese property market and buildup in copper stock at SHFE. In the longer term, supply challenges risk pushing copper into a supply deficit with major copper miners Codelco and Anglo American facing supply challenges. Given the mixed outlook, copper has continued to trade in a tighter price range over the past two months. Counter to conventional wisdom, a sideways market also presents opportunities for savvy investors. This paper describes the diverging outlook for the red metal and how investors can deploy a calendar spread using CME Micro Copper futures amid the diverging short and long-term outlook. CHINESE COPPER INVENTORIES BUILD UP BECAUSE OF DEMAND SLOWDOWN Chinese copper inventories have surged to one of their highest historical levels. Furthermore, inventories have been rising during the part of the year associated with drawdowns. Source – Bloomberg Lower demand is one of the factors behind the increasing inventories. The Chinese real estate sector is a major consumer of copper. With the ongoing slowdown in the sector, copper demand has been hit hard. Moreover, manufacturing sector in China is also experiencing a slowdown as China’s official manufacturing PMI dipped back into contraction in May. Source: TradingEconomics Combination of property market slowdown and lower industrial activity is hindering copper demand in the near term. Furthermore, refined copper production among Chinese copper smelters has remained near all-time high levels over the past few months. Source: Bloomberg BULLISH SUPPLY SIDE AND INDUSTRIAL RECOVERY POSE UPSIDE TO COPPER While near-term demand outlook may be downbeat, the medium- and long-term outlook for copper remain bullish. In the medium term, higher demand from the rapidly growing PV (photovoltaic) manufacturing and EV industry are absorbing some of the higher copper supply. While both industries have slowed in recent months, analysts expect them to recover. At their current pace of copper consumption, these industries are more than compensating for the slowdown in the property market. Source: Reuters Additionally, major copper miners, Codelco and Anglo American are dealing with lower production. Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, reported a 9.4% decline in production in the latest quarter compared to the previous year. This decline is attributed to falling ore grades, water restrictions, union protests, and logistical challenges exacerbated by the global situation, including the pandemic and geopolitical tensions. Anglo American also announced plans to reduce its copper production in 2024 as part of a strategy to cut costs and adapt to market conditions. Lower output from major copper miners is a cause for concern given the rapid pace at which the new energy industries such as EVs and PVs are growing as well as the rapid growth in data centers which require substantial amount of copper. With inadequate supply, copper supplies face the risk of being pushed into a deficit. ASSET MANAGERS HAVE REVERSED VIEW ON COPPER BULLISHNESS While asset managers had built up substantial long positions during the sharp rally in copper which took price to an all-time high, they have started to close some of those long positions indicating that in the near-term price may have run ahead of themselves. Source: CME QuikStrike Over the past week, September CME options have seen a buildup in puts while calls have declined. The November contract has seen a similar trend. However, the March 2025 contract has seen a surge in call OI. Source: CME QuikStrike In a similar vein, CME copper future’s term structure has shifted from a steep contango to backwardation over the last three months. However, over the past week, this has started to shift once more as premium of later contracts over front month has started to rise leading to a steepening term structure. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Given the diverging outlook for copper in the near-term and later term, investors can express a view on the shift in term structure using a calendar spread consisting of CME Micro Copper futures. The below hypothetical trade setup consists of a long position in Micro Copper futures expiring in March 2025 (MHGH2025) and a short position in Micro Copper futures expiring in August 2024 (MHGQ2024). Investors can also deploy the same trade setup using CME full-size copper futures. The CME full-size copper futures also provide a margin offset for the trade, a calendar spread with the same contract can be deployed with maintenance margin of USD 2,500 as of 24/June. The below hypothetical trade setup provides a reward to risk ratio of 1.43x. Entry: 1.011 Target: 1.055 Stop Loss: 0.98 Profit at Target: USD 492 Loss at Stop: USD 342 Reward to Risk: 1.43x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX:HGH2025Long
by mintdotfinance
Copper Finds Support at Key Tech LevelsAfter hitting record highs in May, Copper has pulled back and heads towards a losing month, challenging critical tech levels. It has slipped below the EMA200 (black line), into the daily Ichimoku cloud and tests the 38.2% Fibonacci of the advance fromthe 2022 lows. This exposes it to 4.196, but sustained weakness does not look easy, technically nor fundamentally. Copper already defends the pivotal 38.2% Fibonacci and tries to reclaim the EMA200. Successful effort would reaffirm the bullish bias and create prospects for new all-time highs (5.200). The favorable supply-demand dynamics also point to further upside. The market has tightened significantly as key miners lower their activity this year, while consumption is boosted by the AI boom and the clean energy transition. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:COPPERLong
by FXCM
Could copper rise from here?Price is currently breaking out of a resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could potentially rise our take profit. Entry: 4.4291 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level. Stop loss: 4.3607 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 4.5416 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:COPPERLong
by VantageMarkets
Could copper rise from here?Price is currently on a support level which is a pullback support and could potentially rise to our take profit. Entry: 4.4291 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Stop loss: 4.3607 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level which aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Take profit: 4.5824 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:COPPERLong
by VantageMarkets