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Copper

COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 9 – Anticipating a bearish pullback.The copper market edged to new highs at the beginning of last week, with the price almost reaching $4.40 level before starting an aggressive bearish impulse. It seems that the consolidation that we were talking about in our previous analysis started, as we expect more bearish momentum for this week. If we break the trendline and consolidate underneath, there is a big chance that we will hit the liquidity pool area highlighted on our chart. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
OANDA:XCUUSDShort
by financialflagship
16
June 2021 - Copper 05/03 - Rebounce Sharply1. Fundamental Analysis - After Chile's announcement about rising copper output, Congo increased production of copper and cobalt. - Besides, US Treasury yield climbed higher, it directly made US Dollar stronger than currency peer. Therefore, this triggered a wave of sell-off from equities to commodities by funds. - However, news comes from China that they are targeting GDP growth (at over 6%) are quite impressive. In med tern i think Copper is still good. But near-term, long liquidation remains in place. 2. Technical Analysis. After forming the first wave down in daily timeframe (or three waves ABC in H1). I think, Copper will rebounce sharply with three waves up as i draw in my pic. Of course, we ne to watch close when prices likely break the downtrend in H1 timeframe.
COMEX:HGK2021
by commoditybulletin
Global Quad 2I want to apologize for my lack of activity the past few months. A lot has changed in the markets and a lot has evolved in my approach to reading and navigating the markets. When it comes to my process, I have added the use of multiple lenses beginning first with a fundamental macro overlay called the GIP (Growth, Inflation, Policy) Quad Model, which give us 4 possible macroeconomic environments on a rate of change basis that we are in and could be headed towards. This model protected investors in advance of the 2020 crash with big positions in cash, bonds, and puts and it had its users in Gold and TLT from 3Q2018 until 3Q20. This model also has its users begin shorting USDs and buying commodities and Emerging markets beginning in May 2020. It is impossible to be perfect in markets and the model has made mistakes but overall it has convinced me it is a model worth using and paying attention to. Currently the GIP Model is showing the global economy already in Quad 2 and headed towards a Deep Quad 2 topping out by the 2nd quarter of 2021. Quad 2 is the macroeconomic environment where both economic growth and inflation are accelerating simultaneously. What many equity bears, bond bulls, and gold bulls are missing is that in 1Q20 the global economy hit rock bottom and there is only one direction out of an absolute rock bottom. Whether that's going sideways, a slow grind higher, or a better than expected recovery, all of those outcomes give us something that is better than what the economy was in the March of 2020. It is all about the Rate of Change, this is what the market cares about. Yes, we are in a recession, but the direction the economy is headed right now is different than the direction it was headed in at the start of 2020. On the Margin, a Biden-Kamala administration means: - Less trade war with both allies and foes. A move away from nationalism and isolationism. - Continued push for more stimulus - Giving the Federal Reserve the power to spend not just lend. Retail Central Bank accounts with digital currency stimulus checks etc.. - Possible stimulus directly from the executive branch - Republicans forget that Biden and Kamala are corporatists first and foremost and not nearly as far left as Fox news says. So, this means $DXY continues its downtrend, potentially hitting 80, 70, and maybe a new all-time low over the next 4 years. In the short-term, DXY's trend range is 91-88. Many Gold Bulls are confused why Gold and Silver haven't rallied to new highs despite DXY dropping to new lows, and the reason is because yields have risen alongside expectations for slightly better growth in 2021, higher growth expectations means investors will want to take on more risk in stocks and commodities over yield-sensitive safe havens like bonds and precious metals. AT THE SAME TIME, I still think silver miners and junior miners can do alright in Quad 2 even as the metals themselves stagnate because the amount of money the miners are making is pretty ridiculous. The miners that are well-positioned to expand production into an elevated gold price environment will have accelerating earnings which makes their stock attractive. An example of such a stock is $AUMN Golden Minerals. You really can't go wrong with anything in the commodities. Since the election energy, materials, and industrials have been great places to be. I think energy will continue to be a strong winner. That includes USOIL, Natural Gas, and Uranium. I think the agriculture complex can surprise to upside, including oranges, cocoa, coffee, and cattle. And the Covid losers, in general, will continue to outperform the Covid winners if yields continue to rise (study the US10Y) which is spurred by increases in expectations for future growth and inflation. This is why Copper has been smoking gold lately. Another way to play the steepening yield curve, is $IVOL, which is a low volatility and asymmetric way to play interest rates if you think bonds are overpriced. So to summarize: Bearish on bonds until Q2 of 2020, Bullish on global equities, Bearish on the US Dollar, Bearish on VIX, and on the margin bearish gold and neutral on silver, but bullish on some of the well-positioned gold and silver equities. Once this Quad 2 growth peaks in Q2, or maybe the model output pulls the probability forward of growth peaking in late Q1, whenever that point ends up being we will pivot towards being long gold and silver and shorting Chinese stocks, Oil, Russell 2000, Nasdaq, Financials, etc. but that will be later in 2021 with a Quad 3 or 4 environments (Quad 3 rising inflation falling growth, Quad 4 Falling inflation falling growth). Basically the bullish case is this: - Economy hit rock-bottom in March - Fed overshot monetary policy by a mile - Fiscal stimulus was like 10x the 2009 Fiscal stimulus - A lot more stim is on the way with Biden-Kamala - Biden-Kamala also means more global trade, less volatility in foreign policy - Travel restrictions become loosened as vaccine distributions take place - Highly unlikely that most of the USA and most of the world ever sees anymore covid shutdowns
TVC:US10YLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
May 2021 Copper - Corrective PatternUpdated: Corrective Pattern. 1. Fundamental Analysis - Lack of news comes from China, which represents physical demand. - Waiting for news from non-china (i.e USA: readings from initial claims, unemployment rate...), which show the extent each country are recovering after pandemic. 2. Technical Analysis - Daily: Copper remains corrective pattern in daily timeframe . And it moves as Wave A-B-C as paragraph. - In H1: I predict that Wave B are forming, and it can reach to 4.24 - 4.30. Keep in mind that: 4.24 is resistance zone .
COMEX:HGK2021
by commoditybulletin
June 2021 - Copper (03/03/2021)Fluctuating in wide range (4.04 - 4.37) 1. Fundamental Analysis - Waiting for readings about U.S. factory orders, initial jobless claims and durable goods orders. - Despite Caixin PMI services and indutries were not gud as expected. But, Lots of people remains optimistic. - Sentiments about this market are seemingly improvement, even Chile annouced their production increased. 2. Technical Analysis - Daily, Supporting level: 4.04. - H4, price are fluctuating in a sideway. I expect that Copper need to accumulate, and then climb to former peak. (Around 4.30)
COMEX:HGK2021
by commoditybulletin
1
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 8 – Caution required.The copper market edged to new highs, with prices pushing above $4 a pound, its highest level since September 2011. However, we recommend caution as the rally looks a little unstable and overbought and a strong “bearish” impulse could be waiting around the corner. Yes, we are in a strong weekly uptrend, but we need at some point to start a bigger degree corrective pattern. For this week, we expect the price to pullback towards the trendline, having a big chance to make a new higher-high. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
OANDA:XCUUSDShort
by financialflagship
12
June 2021 - CopperCopper - Correction Ahead 1. Fundamental Analysis - US Housing Data was quite disappointing. - Equity market decline & the fear of rising US interest rates. - In addition, I think copper market is waiting for news which comes from US ( US government's plan for boosting produce electric vehicles) and China (confirmation about speculative buying and demand through readings of Shanghai copper warehouse stocks). 2. Technical Analysis - This market seems overbought, and there's a sign that people are taking profit. - Currently, i think copper contracts are moving in a range | sideway (4.08 - 4.37). - Intraday, prices can climb higher and reach a zone (4.30 - 4.33). It could be a good opportunity for sell to probe the strength of the market)
COMEX:HGK2021
by commoditybulletin
2
US Equity Market could bottom out soonTLT From a post view to analyze the market these days, "everybody" knows from the media that the reason is "fear of hyperinflation" But how much inflation is high enough and when does this correction ends? jump into my conclusion : the correction is ending soon. Why? there are 5 reasons to look for : 1 correction was triggered by diving T-note, looking at TLT, since the broke out from a 2B at early Feb, it accelerated, but approaching pre-pandenmic level. 2 raw material price on the massive run since last year, Copper and Crude oil had their times, but is approaching previous resistance 3 looking at nasdaq, 2Hr and 4Hr had made new lows but with MACD divergence 4 catalyst could be the freezing weather that send crude to the sky and the priced in stim bill, with dead line approaching, there still a big uncertainty in this, so could triggers some risk aversion 5 Nasdaq is approaching 12/18 quad witching support
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by JasontryHarder
2