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Copper

Why Silver stands out.In the ever-evolving landscape of global economics, precious metals like silver, often serve as key indicators and safe havens. This week, we'll explore the factors making silver an interesting prospect in today's market. Current Macroeconomic Indicators: The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicates a slight increase in the US for July, registering at 3.2%, up from the previous month's 3%. Predictive models from the Reserve Bank of Cleveland suggest an impending rise for the August CPI. Concurrently, the Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model projects a rise in GDP figures. Silver, Inflation & GDP: The above becomes important when historical data reveals that significant spikes in silver prices often follow periods of simultaneous rises in GDP and inflation. Notably, in years that saw increases in both indicators, silver recorded gains of 38% and 46% in 2009 and 2020, respectively. Conversely, 2002 saw a modest 2% return. Silver vs. Gold: A measure of relative value between the two major precious metals via the ratio of Silver to Gold, further substantiates the idea of a potential strength in Silver. The ratio is trading just off a trend support-turned-resistance and at the upper end of the symmetrical triangle. Resistance here can play out in the format of silver strengthening relative to gold. Yields and Silver: The longstanding inverted relationship of yield and silver can be observed in the chart, but the ratio provides some insights into the limits of this relationship. What’s immediately obvious to us post 2008 there has been a regime change in this relationship as yield grinded lower and silver remains elevated. With no immediate large catalyst on the horizon, it is likely the current regime will hold and hence, the ‘floor’ in this relationship is near. Meaning relative to current levels of yield, Silver is trading on the lower side. Equities vs ‘real’ economy: Beyond being a precious metal, silver's industrial applications—from automotive to solar panels and electronics manufacturing—make it a bellwether for the 'real' economy, akin to copper. Comparing the Nasdaq 100 against industrial metals illustrates a disparity between equities and the 'real' economy, positioning silver as significantly undervalued relative to peers like copper and gold. Positioning: Current market positions, particularly among net Non-Commercials, seem to favor silver with a growing bullish sentiment. Technical Analysis: A noteworthy observation is the persistence of the 22.5 level as a pivotal support and resistance mark for silver, a trend tracing back to the 80s. Prices currently thread above this level and remain supported by an uptrend that began in August 2022. Additionally, RSI points to oversold, and in the past 4 instances when RSI reached such levels, prices quickly rebounded thereafter. Against the above factors, we see support for Silver, on multiple fronts, such as economic cycle, relative value against equities, and underpriced when compared against gold. Hence, to express our view on Silver, we can set up a long position on the Silver Futures at the current level of 22.67 with a stop at 21.8 and take profit at 25.10 . Silver prices are quoted in U.S. dollars and cents per troy ounce and each 0.005 move is equal to 25 Dollars. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.atlantafed.org www.clevelandfed.org
COMEX:SI1!Long
by inspirante
TMC Offers Massive Upside Mining the Seafloor The weaker dollar has led to prices for commodities climbing sharply and quality mining stocks generating substantial gains. This has occurred in the face of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the fastest pace in history. Rising rates normally strengthen the dollar and we did see a USD rally in the first half of 2022 when the Fed began raising rates. But that rally fizzled and the dollar took a sharp turn lower in September of 2022, even with the Fed continuing to raise rates, doubling the Fed Funds rate from 2.5% to over 5%. This can be explained by the markets being forward-looking and anticipating an end to rate hikes on the horizon. But this is also partially due to inflation remaining stubbornly high with no signs of fiscal responsibility from the current administration. And now that most of the rate hikes are behind us and we are at or near a terminal Fed Funds rate, we think the dollar decline will accelerate, which will translate into significantly higher commodity prices. TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) TMC the metals company Inc., a deep-sea minerals exploration company, focuses on the collection, processing, and refining of polymetallic nodules found on the seafloor in the Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the south-west of San Diego, California. It primarily explores for nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese products. This company is interesting because they are the first publicly-traded company to attempt mining valuable metals from the sea floor. They claim to be developing the world’s largest estimated source of battery metals, with enough nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese to electrify the entire U.S. passenger vehicle fleet. They estimate massive In situ quantities of nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese with a total resource of 15,700,000 t Ni / 2,400,000 t Co / 13,300,000 t Cu / 350,000,000 t Mn. Some nickel projects have high grade, some have a large resource, but TMC is an outlier among peers with the largest NiEq resource and highest NiEq grade. The company estimates an NPV of over $10 billion at current nickel prices, based on just 22% of the NORI-D resource. Yet the company is trading at a market cap of around $300 million. This is a multiple of 10x to 20x less than their land-based peers, implying huge upside should they be successful obtaining permits and moving into production. In just the past week, TMC said it plans to apply next year for a license to start mining in the Pacific Ocean, with production expected to start as early as late 2025. The company has signed non-binding MoU with Pacific Metals Company (PAMCO) of Japan to evaluate the processing of 1.3 million tonnes per year of wet nodules But environmental campaigners say seabed mining could have a catastrophic impact on marine ecosystems, so it is still unclear if they will get the license needed to start mining. There are also questions around the costs to pull these nodules up from deep locations on the seafloor. TMC is an interesting speculative mining play. Management believes it has rights to the globe’s largest undeveloped Nickel project. Nickel is one of the most widely used minerals for EV batteries and will see increased demand in the years ahead. A supply gap is likely to push prices for nickel much higher in the years ahead, potentially increasing the value of TMC as well. Much will hinge on getting final regulations from the International Seabed Authority, which seems to be in no hurry. But if this happens and TMC gets permits, I think this stock is going to be 5x to 10x for investors buying shares ahead of the news. The share price spiked higher on increased media coverage lately, but dropped back just as fast. I recommend this balanced article from CNBC for continued reading on TMC. The price went from 65 cents to $3.00, before falling back to $1.10 currently. Everyone will have to decide for themself if this is a good opportunity to buy the pullback or simply catching a falling knife. A small allocation as a lottery ticket could be of interest for risk-tolerant investors.
NASDAQ:TMCLong
by jhamlin24
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 1/08US and European markets saw a relatively tame session to end the month. Major indexes remain buoyant and edge higher even as the USD gains and US Bond yields hold around long term highs. While traders focus on the end of a global interest rate rising cycle, share markets remain risk on. For me, the technical view remains positive for now with focus today on the RBA rate statement today in our local market and then it will shift to the US Key employment data at the end of the week. Expecting a stronger open in Asia with the ASX200 to open up 25 pts, the Nikkei to open flat and Hang Seng to open up 210 pts. Traders will be keeping an eye on coming employment data and rate Statements from the RBA today and BOE later in the week, for an updated outlook for Global interest rates and inflation. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
COPPER Two year Triangle may finally break.Copper (XCUUSD) is trading within a Triangle pattern since the March 07 2022 High. The price is currently above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), supported twice by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The 1D RSI shows that we may be replicating the July 15 - September 20 2022 fractal. If the price breaks above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Triangle, then based on the fractal should target initially the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level at 4.1800. As long as it closes below the Lower Highs, we will sell and target the 3.6870 Support. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
COMEX:HG1!
by TradingShot
1
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 26/07US and European markets continue the grind higher as focus remains on coming earnings from big Tech in the US. Overall, major indexes are extended so I feel that it will not take much to prompt investors to unwind and take some profits. In saying that, the trend remains up in the near term so there is no reason to close positions at the moment. The USD has been pushing higher while Gold is under pressure and Copper rallies. The previous few sessions US bond yields have been moving up ahead of FOMC statement due out tomorrow night where rates are expecting to be lifted. Expecting a mixed open in Asia with the ASX200 to open up 20 pts, the Nikkei to open flat and Hang Seng to open down 100 pts. Traders will be keeping an eye on inflationary data (AUS CPI out today) and US Rate Statement from the Feds, for signs that inflation is still easing. Whether that translates into lessening pressure on the wallet and the cost of living, I expect will take some time to play out. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper ** If you like the content then take a look at my WEBSITE in the profile to get more daily ideas and learning material ** ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. **
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Copper - (continued) SHORT; for now ...I fail to grasp the general consensus where the overall impression seems to be that "bad technicals" but "a very pretty fundamental picture"? LME stocks jumped +45% just since January alone! - How is that a "good" fundamental picture? (I must be missing something, especially with China not coming back, in any way resembling past demand.) Long(er) term, one could make a case, perhaps, but only by disregarding the hole that the decline of Chinese demand will poke into global fundamentals. On the other hand, Copper/Gold ratio looks rather bullish. Here is a close-up; As for the Copper/Gold Ratio; That is definitely what bullish looks like! Stay SHORT for now (... and then make a lot of money trading it from under 3.50 ;-)
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Nemo_Confidat
2
Copper Conundrum: Diverging Indicators Point to More DownsideThe last time we looked at copper was last October, and the trade played out nicely in our favor. Much has happened since then and we think another opportunity lies on the horizon now. Revisiting the same analysis now we observe the following… China, being the largest copper buyer, its currency pair CNHUSD traditionally shares a high correlation with copper. However, a divergence has emerged since May 2023. Moreover, copper's wide usage in manufacturing - from batteries to appliances and industrial machinery - makes China's import and export figures a good indicator of global economic health. These figures currently paint a gloomy picture, with YOY Exports & Imports pointing lower. Again, we notice a divergence between copper prices and these economic numbers. The Gold/Copper ratio, usually confined within a certain range, has recently tried to break higher. Despite facing resistance, the movement may still have momentum. Previous breaks upward have proven to be quite rapid. One way this could play out is if copper trades lower, the Gold/Copper ratio tends to trend higher. From a price action perspective, copper seems to be breaking out from a seven-month bull flag, inching towards the 4.00 price level. However, the significant resistance at 4.00 casts doubts on the breakout's success. Further fuelling this doubt is the emergence of a Simple Moving Average (SMA) death cross on the daily timeframe. On a shorter timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests slight overselling, while the overall price structure is encapsulated in a symmetrical triangle. Summing up, we foresee short-term downside for copper due to diverging macro factors from copper’s price and a downward trend in the dollar. Moreover, price action suggests overbought levels and looming resistance. CME has the Full-sized Copper Contract or the Micro Copper Futures which we can use to express this view, taking a short position at the current level of 3.904, stop loss at 4.10 and take profit at 3.55 the next level of support and subsequently 3.30 if the symmetrical triangle breakout happens. Each $0.0005 price move in copper per pound is equal to $1.25 for the micro copper futures and $12.50 for the full-sized copper futures. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
COMEX:HG1!Short
by inspirante
Nikkei break out? - China's JapanificationThe recent Nikkei rally is bringing it ever closer to that "magical" 30,000 level which it hasn't touched since the late '80s collapse. IFF a breakout occurs, expect a collapse in all XYZ/JPY pairs - since, true to form, every equity/hedge fund in the world is expected to pile in. Internal Chinese (export/import) numbers are showing a fair pick up in exports - post Covid - BUT a very anemic internal demand, with import numbers steadily surprising to the down-side (by a lot!). Simultaneously Japanese heavy industry is racking up some solid numbers lately, especially in regard to steel, automobile and electronic components. All of this is fueled by an abating chip shortage, giving world wide car production a boost. E.g. Watch the Nikkei price action and fully expect a blinding YEN rally should that 30,000 level get blown away!
OSE:NK2251!Long
by Nemo_Confidat
Gold - When A New ATH Prints, Will You Get Trapped?It's not that I am fundamentally bearish on gold. Actually, I am fundamentally bullish on gold. But it's because I think the fundamentals of gold are bullish that this commodity is not bound to pump while the MMs have tipped their hands that they're going to sell Artificial Intelligence and Chinese Communist Party garbage to a willing horde of retail zombies and dead money hedge funds. And so if gold is really to return to relatively significant lows, like say $1,500, the purpose would be accumulation for $2,500 and $3,000. And if that's to happen, with the way the last three months of price action has been, the gold MM, which is really quite a shark, is extremely unlikely to allow the funds and retail cowboys who have been short under the triple top ATH at $2,089 to enjoy the ride down with them This monthly is too obvious that new lows aren't going to come before the highs are purged: And the weekly shows that the $1,936 dump rebalanced the gap created by the big March candle. A significant calculation in the markets is rumors that came out on Friday that the CCP would be pumping some QE to save its crashing markets. This news came on the back of names as big as Elon Musk, Jamie Dimon, Henry Kissinger, and Condoleezza Rice either traveling to the mainland for the first time in years or attending virtually, along with the Starbucks and Pfizer CEOs. So what's going on, if you ask me, is that the Party has once again been given a blood transfusion, and that blood transfusion may be in exchange for that gold it spent the last several months buying. This would naturally mean that gold would pump so it can be sold at high prices and bought back even lower, with the dual purpose being that it would cripple the CCP's gold reserves, which are loaned on leverage. Whenever you hear someone barking about how strong the CCP is, or worse, if they conflate "China" to "the Chinese Communist Party," you need to take a step back and ask yourself how a country whose lost tens or hundreds of millions of people to a pandemic it's still doing everything it can to cover up could possibly be strong. It's not that the CCP is going to invade Taiwan. It's that NATO and the other global factions are thinking about how they can take over Beijing via Taiwan when the Party falls in the imminent future. The persecution of Falun Gong by the Jiang Faction and the Communist Party itself in 1999 wasn't and isn't Xi Jinping's fault, but as the Party Chairman, his head hangs in the noose for this crime, a weakness that anyone can exploit at any time to get rid of Xi and the Party at the same time. But the problem is that a lot of the western world and Europe and other countries have participated in the persecution, which has targeted 100 million spiritual practitioners and gone so far as to commit the sin of live organ harvesting. And so this means that the situation in China is Mutually Assured Destruction, a real Game of Thrones, and ultimately the Heavens are playing them all for a fool together. So, here's the trade: Expect the $1,936 pivot to hold. (But $1,920 will also work) Buy really here or anywhere under $1,950. Be patient and don't get scared Sell $2,150 Collect 7-12% Buy wine and whiskey and treat your friends Now the kicker is that shorting gold at $2,150-2,170 will be a really good trade, but for the bear case to really apply you want to see a liquidity purge and distribution, rather than a sweep. Like, you want to see a wick or tweezers form on monthly bars, but you want to see gold spend some daily and/or weekly candles distributing and getting knocked down and trying again and getting knocked down over $2,100. Otherwise an ATH that doesn't show signs of having its fever break can go quite literally anywhere, although the macro and timing does not currently make sense for this to be the case at present. One of the best ways to play this is in the GLD ETF. Calls when it trades to about $178.5 with at least 3 months on the contract will print a lot of money closing over $200 if my trade is correct. I can only tell you that the world is in trouble. A bull impulse when breadth is poor, macro conditions are poor, the timing doesn't make sense... all of them should be causes for alarm. One day these distractions won't be maintained anymore and there will be significant problems we all have to face outside of the computer in the real world. To make it through that, you have to be a good person, cultivate virtue, and go back to valuing and maintaining our traditions again.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by LordWrymouth
4
Copper: the irreplaceable raw material for renewable energyCopper is one of the few elements that has been used by humans for over 10,000 years. Archaeological evidence suggests that copper was first discovered and utilised by ancient civilisations as early as 9000 BCE1. Its malleability, durability, and excellent conductivity made it highly prized for tools, weapons, and decorative objects. Copper's rich history as a valuable and versatile metal showcases its enduring significance and timeless appeal. Today, copper’s importance in the global economy continues to rise, especially given the boom in renewable energy. Copper is an excellent conductor of electricity, making it an ideal material for renewable energy systems. Its high electrical conductivity allows for efficient energy transfer, minimising power losses during transmission and distribution. Moreover, copper's unparalleled malleability and ductility, which refer to its ability to be easily shaped and stretched without breaking, make it incredibly challenging to substitute with other materials. High intensity in wind and solar Today, wind and solar are among the most mainstream forms of renewable energy. The figure below shows how much more copper is required when generating power from offshore wind (wind turbines in the seas), onshore wind (wind turbines on land), and solar photovoltaic (PV) compared to fossil fuels like coal and natural gas. Copper is extensively used in wind turbines. It is employed in generator coils, transformers, and electrical cables. The strong magnetic properties of copper enable efficient power generation and ensure reliable performance in wind turbine systems. Copper is also a crucial element in solar panels. It is used in the wiring, busbars2, and connectors within the panels. Copper's excellent electrical conductivity facilitates the efficient conversion of sunlight into electricity and supports the overall performance of solar energy systems. For the power generated from renewables to ultimately be deployed effectively, electrical grid infrastructure and energy storage are also needed. Copper, once again, is integral in building both. In energy storage systems, which complement renewables by storing energy for days when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining, copper is used in batteries and supercapacitors3. It is utilised in the conductive components, such as electrodes and current collectors, enhancing the efficiency and durability of energy storage devices. In electrical grid infrastructure, copper is extensively used in power cables, transformers, and distribution systems, ensuring the reliable transmission of electricity from renewable sources to end consumers. Doing it sustainably Copper is deemed to have infinite recyclability. This means that the metal does not lose any of its properties and can be used again and again. Recycled copper requires 85% less energy than primary production4. This highlights the huge environmental benefit of recycling the commodity. Today, roughly a third of total copper production comes from recycling. This means that, as we scale up renewable energy, we must also bolster the recycling industry. Copper’s infinite recyclability will make that a fruitful endeavour. The irreplaceable metal In conclusion, copper stands as an irreplaceable raw material for renewable energy. Its exceptional electrical conductivity, second only to silver, positions copper as the ideal choice for efficient energy transfer in wind turbines, solar panels, energy storage systems, and electrical grid infrastructure. As the world embraces renewable energy on a larger scale, the demand for copper will continue to grow. And given its infinite recyclability, if the world deploys its resources appropriately, this growth can be sustainable. Sources 1 Copper Development Association. 2 A busbar is a rigid conductor used for connecting several circuits. 3 Supercapacitor is an electronic device that store large amount of electric charge. 4 Copper Alliance.
COMEX:HG1!
by aneekaguptaWTE