Copper - Just the BeginningCopper futures broke out of their wedge this week, with per tonne prices breaking the $10,000 milestone. Names such as Freeport-McMoran (FCX) are benefitting from this, while TRQ is on discount due to. setback in their mining process. Despite Fed tapering, copper is strong, surprisingly. I believe that now is the time to get in "The New Oil", as stated by Goldman Sachs, who gives the commodity a 50% upside before 2025. If copper moving 10% has resulted in Freeport going from $30 to $39, think of what will happen if Goldman and the rest of the Street is right...
Thesis:
Goldman Sachs recently published a note declaring copper "the new oil," and forecasting it could reach $15,000 (50% inc.) by 2025 as the world transitions to clean energy.
As the movement to sustainability/clean energy progresses, the exponential increase in demand for copper will outrun supply due to slow mine creation, centralized property rights.
Although it may take a few years and experience some drawdown, depleted inventories and a demand spike will likely cause the price to rise significantly over the next decade, with Bank of America suggesting a possible 100% increase to $20,000 per metric ton by 2025.
Overall sentiment on the Street is extremely bullish in the mid-to-long-term.
Copperlongterm
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Exciting days for Copper. The brown metal reached the $2.8575 level. I'm confident that copper price will rise in the long run if copper demand, especially for China (largest copper consumer), will continue to record highs (527,000 tons in December 2019).
However, we still live on planet earth, and we need to make a deal with technical analysis. I believe Copper has terminated an Elliot wave impulse, with wave 5 hitting today's high ($2.8575). I will expect in the next days the A, B, and C corrective waves.
This theory is enforced by Volume Profile analysis (performed on Elliot Impulse Range) that shows POC support at $2.6436, and an exciting volume development around $2.7947. I expect corrective wave C to touch this support to bounce back for a new impulse wave 1 (If the market will let it).
Stochastic still confirm this analysis. The indicator showed no reversal for this cycle, and it is approximating the overbought area, by the way, again with a bullish setting.
Disclosure: My ideas contain statements and projections based on assumptions on capital markets, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks and uncertainties.
Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.
I am not a financial advisor.
Is EURUSD a leading indicator for Copper?Based on their correlation since 2002 we can say that EURUSD is a leading indicator for Copper. Especially since 2010, they both trade within a 1M Channel Down, with EURUSD however respecting the Lower Highs/ Lower Lows more. So with EURUSD on a long term bearish trend towards the 1.0358 support, we expect 2.000 long term for Copper. Technically Copper's 1M is on a pivotal point, being neutral overall (RSI = 53.441, Williams = -49.469, CCI = 9.9212, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) so expect the break lower to take place soon.
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