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HG1! One word - CLEAN!COMEX:HG1! One word - CLEAN! What a beautiful chart for copper! Technically it's ever so clean, when it comes to set ups like this - Be careful of fake breaks. Pattern - Triangle/Pennant Highs: 4.2100 Lows: 3.8255 A break of highs I expect: 4.3550 & 4.5570. However, a break of the lows I expect: 3.6740 & 3.5040 and perhaps lower! Currently, as long as we within this channel and within these ranges... until break either side! Have a great week ahead & it's a long weekend for some of us! 🔆 Trade Journal 🔆
COMEX:HG1!
by Trade_Journal
Copper analysis and ideas: Will bears come back?Copper prices may remain under pressure in the coming months due to investors' apprehension about China's growth prospects in the wake of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which disappointed the market. Since September, copper prices have fluctuated within a relatively narrow range (3.2-3.6) after the earlier sharp declines occurred this year. The long-term case for copper remains strong, as it is a key metal for the energy transition and global inventories are currently very low. However, one of the main challenges it faces in the near future is its dependence on China’s economic growth. The brown metal will remain under pressure unless China announces new growth-friendly economic policies to counteract the predicted slowdown in the country’s economy. However, the latest China Party Congress appears to prefer fostering sustainable growth and giving more importance to inequality, national security, and ideological matters. Copper bull markets have historically coincided with periods of extraordinary global growth, driven primarily by China. We have now reached a crossroads in that regard, and if China is unable to maintain high and consistent economic growth, copper will have to wait for a new global wave of coordinated investments toward the development of renewables and green energy. However, given the issues with inflation and rising interest rates that we are currently facing, it may still be years before the transition fully takes hold on a global scale. This could take the price of copper subdued for longer. When we look at the daily chart, we can see that some bearish pressure was forming near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2022 range. Also the 50-day moving average has been a quite strong dynamic resistance later. The technical picture remains overall on the bearish foot, and copper needs to clear the 2022 trendline at around $3.75 and then cross the psychological $4.00 mark before materially inverting the downtrend.
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by Capitalcom
Copper analysis: Has the bear market rally ended already?After a 37% decline from its peak of $5.03 per pound in early-March 2022, copper has risen 14% since July's lows. However, the metal has recently been unable to overcome key resistance levels represented by the 50-day moving average and the descending channel trendline, as fresh worries about global growth slowdown and monetary policy tightening reemerged this week. Key macro events of the week: China, the world's largest consumer of copper, unexpectedly lowered lending rates in an effort to boost demand after reporting weaker-than-anticipated July numbers for industrial production (3.8% vs 4.6% expected), fixed asset investments (5.7% vs 6.2%), and retail sales (2.7% vs 5%). In the United States, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged to -31.3 in August of 2022, from 11.2 in July. This is the lowest reading since May of 2020, and it indicates that business activity is weakening as a result of a collapse in new orders and shipments. Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index has fallen to its lowest level since October 2008, and the UK inflation rate has risen to double digits, the highest in 40 years, adding fuel to the fire and reigniting fears of a global recession. Ultimately, the Minutes of the FOMC's July meeting revealed that there is still a long way to go before declaring the war on inflation won, with members indicating that adopting a more restrictive policy stance was critical to avoiding a worsening of inflation expectations. This implies that the Fed's tightening is far from over. Copper technical analysis A bear market rally that is nearing exhaustion can be seen on the copper daily chart. The price action this week has been unable to break above both the bearish channel and the 50-dma, the RSI has tilted to the downside, and the MACD is getting close to a bearish crossover. A similar pattern occurred earlier this year, in the first week of June. After a 14% rebound from May's lows, copper briefly surpassed the 50-day moving average before beginning a severe, steep decline that lasted until mid-July. The RSI and MACD indicators both showed similar patterns to what we are seeing now. Bottom line, a copper's short-term pullback to the bearish channel's midline in the $3.2-3.3 area seems more likely, given the current technical setup. Breaking decisively the 50-dma and bearish channel resistances would invalidate the thesis and raise the odds of a $4.00 per pound test. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by Capitalcom
Copper is in a death cross: $3.5 is the next crucial supportThis week, copper plummeted to fresh 52-week lows, breaking below the $4 per pound support level held since April 2021. Prices have now reached oversold territory as the 14-day RSI went below 30 this week, and is currently trading at 22, reflecting the brown metal’s severe sell-off. Moving averages have also created a so-called death-cross pattern, with the 50-day crossing the 200-day, possibly indicating a shift from a bull to a bear market. Copper sales have surged as recession concerns grew significantly, especially in the United States. Inflationary pressures in many nations of world are much harder to control than expected, and they are also widespread in goods and services not directly connected to energy prices, requiring higher interest rates that would inevitably slow economic activity. Copper , being one of the most sensitive commodities to the economic cycle, suffers substantially during phases of slowdown in the US ISM Manufacturing index , as we explained in this analysis . Copper prices are presently testing the $3.7 resistance level established in January ’21 and are down 27% from their March ‘22 highs. Below this level, the $3.5 pound support in December 2020 and January 2021 could be tested. This is a crucial threshold for the Fibonacci retracement analysis since a fall below the 50% level would boost bearish' convictions and confirm the presence of a copper's bear market.
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by Capitalcom
Global headwinds for copper?Copper has attempted a rebound from technical oversold levels in recent days, following a 20% drawdown from its all time highs, thus officially entering a bear market. Is this an indication that investors have already priced in a global economic downturn and that the worst is now over? Or are we merely experiencing a copper bear market rally, with further declines to come? The previous days have acted as a relief rally in all assets that had declined in recent months. That's because interest rate fears cooled as inflation peaked. The market is beginning to believe that the Fed may not go all-in with rate rises and will thus need to release the brake to prevent more damage (a recession). However, the most significant concerns associated with copper, particularly Covid-19 in China and the negative repercussions on global growth, have not dissipated. If current geopolitical and economic challenges, such as Covid in China and the conflict in Ukraine, derail globalization efforts, copper prices may face further headwinds in the coming months as trade flows stall due to a drop in global consumer demand amid real income losses. Copper prices exhibit an extraordinarily close link with South Korean exports ECONOMICS:KREXP — one of the world's most open economies and a gauge of the health of global trade flows. Read more...
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by Capitalcom
COPPER- Poised for a Correction Copper prices snapped a five-session winning streak on Tuesday as investors held off on making large bets ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting expected to give more direction on monetary policy. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange was down 0.8% at $9,735 per tonne at 1635 GMT, after touching its highest since June 15 at $9,924. “Given the scale of moves we have seen since the (close of business) 19th July ... some sort of pause was to be expected especially given the Fed’s two-day meet,”.
FX:COPPERShort
by FX_Professor
2
Copper Long SetupCopper Long Setup Entry: $3.4989 TP & RR: $3.6094 (3.47) Stop Loss: $3.4671 REASONS FOR THE TRADE Opening a long order at a support level. As simple as that. The Stop Loss is set below the previous low and the Take Profit is at the lower trendline from the triangle that we broke down from. The market Flow indicator is printing a divergence on the 4h chart, so I believe the price should start trending up. I will be quick to trial the stop loss if the price indeed goes up. This is one of those trades that can go wrong very quickly and I don't want to give up profits.
FX:COPPER
by Quant_
COPPER - Approaching our first Take Profit LevelI like to set at least 4 take profit levels). Trading becomes really difficult unless you can have the power of patience and the power of taking profits gradually. This way: - you don't close in profit too early (oh fuck, i mad 200$ but if i had kept i could had made 2,000$) - you do take profits along the way ensuring you make something (best trading habit) - you can change the stop loss at entry (zero risk, you can also calculate the spreads and swaps and do it perfectly) - if the market reverses against you after at least 1 of the 4 take profit levels has been checked you are guaranteed some profit. Which is still a winner - you manage to finally create those long-lasting good trades that you opened 2 months ago but they still making you money Patience is key, Planning is essential, Taking Profit gradually is the Winning Recipe. ps. there is another element here. To correct your trades early and follow what the chart says. I had to change from sell to buy and I did that efficiently, which makes me happy.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by FX_Professor