Copper: Like a Lead Weight ⚖️No worries – we didn’t confuse our metals! However, like a lead weight, copper should continue to sink further, heading for the green zone between $3.08 and $2.59 in the south. Already the price has broken free from the recent sidewards movement and has developed a new low, showing more and more downwards momentum. Once copper has arrived in the green zone, it should complete wave 2 in green, marking a distinctive low, which should then introduce a strong upwards movement.
Coppertrading
COPPER: 4month Support on the 1D MA200. Bullish.Copper is trading inside a Channel Down pattern that is approaching the bottom of a Rising Megaphone pattern. The price is almost neutral (RSI = 44.491, MACD = -0.036, ADX = 22.406), stuck between the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200.
As the RSI is on the S1 Zone as well, the conditions for a longterm buy are pilling up. First we target the Channel Down top (TP = 4.1000) and if we get a daily closing over it, continue buying to R1 (TP = 4.3500).
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Copper Prices at Risk as Inverse Cup and Handle Takes Shape Copper prices are at risk of moving lower as an inverted handle takes shape following an inverted cup. The Inverse Cup and Handle pattern is an inherently bearish formation. A break below handle support would threaten the 3 psychological level.
Copper analysis: Has the bear market rally ended already?After a 37% decline from its peak of $5.03 per pound in early-March 2022, copper has risen 14% since July's lows.
However, the metal has recently been unable to overcome key resistance levels represented by the 50-day moving average and the descending channel trendline, as fresh worries about global growth slowdown and monetary policy tightening reemerged this week.
Key macro events of the week:
China, the world's largest consumer of copper, unexpectedly lowered lending rates in an effort to boost demand after reporting weaker-than-anticipated July numbers for industrial production (3.8% vs 4.6% expected), fixed asset investments (5.7% vs 6.2%), and retail sales (2.7% vs 5%).
In the United States, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged to -31.3 in August of 2022, from 11.2 in July. This is the lowest reading since May of 2020, and it indicates that business activity is weakening as a result of a collapse in new orders and shipments.
Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index has fallen to its lowest level since October 2008, and the UK inflation rate has risen to double digits, the highest in 40 years, adding fuel to the fire and reigniting fears of a global recession.
Ultimately, the Minutes of the FOMC's July meeting revealed that there is still a long way to go before declaring the war on inflation won, with members indicating that adopting a more restrictive policy stance was critical to avoiding a worsening of inflation expectations. This implies that the Fed's tightening is far from over.
Copper technical analysis
A bear market rally that is nearing exhaustion can be seen on the copper daily chart. The price action this week has been unable to break above both the bearish channel and the 50-dma, the RSI has tilted to the downside, and the MACD is getting close to a bearish crossover.
A similar pattern occurred earlier this year, in the first week of June.
After a 14% rebound from May's lows, copper briefly surpassed the 50-day moving average before beginning a severe, steep decline that lasted until mid-July. The RSI and MACD indicators both showed similar patterns to what we are seeing now.
Bottom line, a copper's short-term pullback to the bearish channel's midline in the $3.2-3.3 area seems more likely, given the current technical setup. Breaking decisively the 50-dma and bearish channel resistances would invalidate the thesis and raise the odds of a $4.00 per pound test.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
Copper MCX chart indicates strong bull run about to startCopper is managed to bounce from 750 level and in last trading session give strong recover from bottom.
On daily time frame made a bullish pin candle near resistance zone.
Breaking above 760 will trigger strong buying and target will be 770 to 775.
Copper Long SetupCopper Long Setup
Entry: $3.4989
TP & RR: $3.6094 (3.47)
Stop Loss: $3.4671
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Opening a long order at a support level. As simple as that. The Stop Loss is set below the previous low and the Take Profit is at the lower trendline from the triangle that we broke down from. The market Flow indicator is printing a divergence on the 4h chart, so I believe the price should start trending up. I will be quick to trial the stop loss if the price indeed goes up. This is one of those trades that can go wrong very quickly and I don't want to give up profits.
COPPER - Approaching our first Take Profit LevelI like to set at least 4 take profit levels). Trading becomes really difficult unless you can have the power of patience and the power of taking profits gradually.
This way:
- you don't close in profit too early (oh fuck, i mad 200$ but if i had kept i could had made 2,000$)
- you do take profits along the way ensuring you make something (best trading habit)
- you can change the stop loss at entry (zero risk, you can also calculate the spreads and swaps and do it perfectly)
- if the market reverses against you after at least 1 of the 4 take profit levels has been checked you are guaranteed some profit. Which is still a winner
- you manage to finally create those long-lasting good trades that you opened 2 months ago but they still making you money
Patience is key, Planning is essential, Taking Profit gradually is the Winning Recipe.
ps. there is another element here. To correct your trades early and follow what the chart says. I had to change from sell to buy and I did that efficiently, which makes me happy.
COPPER - New flight inbound Copper price continues to form bullish waves to settle above 3.6400 and confirm the preparation of recording new targets in the near term and medium term basis, expecting to crawl positively towards 3.73 followed by attempting to press on the next barrier at 3.7880 to form the next station of the bullish bias.
The expected trend: Bullish
COPPER- Offering us a second chance to SELLThis is our small chart for Copper.
As you can see from previous ideas we were able to sell it at a perfect time right on the mega-resistance . That level is a massive barrier that Copper will find great difficulty breaking.
The take profits are on our previous charts
COPPER- Our first 3 (of 5 ) take profit levelsWe take profit gradually, always.
Find on the chart our first 3 take profit levels
ps. it takes 1 take profit level for us to secure some profit and then have the stop loss at zero (entry) to secure a guaranteed profit. Try to do the same and your trading will become better. 💌
Copper (HG): Strong long term Buy Signal.Copper is on a three day bullish streak since the February 3rd rebound near the 2.4800 Support. The 4H chart has already turned bullish (RSI = 54.648, ADX = 36.919, ADX = 36.919) but 1D is still bearish (RSI = 34.595, MACD = -0.070, ADX = 52.434, Highs/Lows = -0.0336) so the risk remains.
That risk is concentrated on the 1D MA200. As you see the MA200 on the 1D chart has acted as Resistance on previous occasions especially on the first rebound attempt after the last -13% fall in May 2019. If the price is rejected again (especially if a Double Top is made), then we expect a new rejection. On a different occasion (MA200 break out) we expect a new rally towards at least the 2.8800 Symmetrical Resistance (which is our Target).
There are numerous reasons that give more probabilities for a bullish break-out:
* The 1D RSI has bounced on a monthly Support level, which was last hit in July 2018. What followed last time the RSI hit 19.500 on 1D was a strong rally towards the 2.8800 Symmetrical Resistance, which is our Target.
* The current rebound is practically a Double Bottom as it was made near the 2.4800 Low of September 3rd, 2019.
* Last time Copper made a Double Bottom was on January 3rd 2019. The result was a bullish rally even higher than the 2.8800 Symmetrical Resistance.
Previous successful Buy Signal on Copper made last August:
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Copper Tempest: The Bear before the BullIf you like this idea, don't forget to hit the Like Button and to Follow Me!
Exciting days for Copper. The brown metal reached the $2.8575 level. I'm confident that copper price will rise in the long run if copper demand, especially for China (largest copper consumer), will continue to record highs (527,000 tons in December 2019).
However, we still live on planet earth, and we need to make a deal with technical analysis. I believe Copper has terminated an Elliot wave impulse, with wave 5 hitting today's high ($2.8575). I will expect in the next days the A, B, and C corrective waves.
This theory is enforced by Volume Profile analysis (performed on Elliot Impulse Range) that shows POC support at $2.6436, and an exciting volume development around $2.7947. I expect corrective wave C to touch this support to bounce back for a new impulse wave 1 (If the market will let it).
Stochastic still confirm this analysis. The indicator showed no reversal for this cycle, and it is approximating the overbought area, by the way, again with a bullish setting.
Disclosure: My ideas contain statements and projections based on assumptions on capital markets, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks and uncertainties.
Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.
I am not a financial advisor.