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The crisis in Argentina and Corbyn attacks JohnsonThe crisis in Argentina. Argentina’s stock market lost more than 30% on Monday, and the Argentine peso also fell significantly. The ghost of default in Argentina scared investors around the world. Given that it is all about the 25th largest economy in the world, their fears are more than understandable - this could well be a signal for a full-fledged global crisis, the prerequisites for have been formed for a long time ago. In this light, the constant attempts of gold to “gain” a foothold above 1525 are understandable. But on the other hand, our recommendation to sell on growth paid off all week, giving good earnings almost every day. So this week we will continue to adhere to a similar tactic. As for the Pound. Even though its weekly growth was slightly more than 100 points, it is important, that in dollar pair, it was able to gain a foothold above 1.21. The reasons for growth were good statistics on retail sales and the labor market and Brexit. So, last week, pound sellers were flustrated by aggressive rhetoric from the British opposition. Jeremy Corbyn, British politician serving as Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition, called for a vote of no confidence and declare a caretaker government that ensures that the country will not leave the EU without a deal and will hold early UK elections. We emphasize that it is all about the rumours, so this week we will continue to look for points for pound purchases. As for the dollar. U.S. retail sales came out pretty good, however, we still continue to recommend its purchasing. Market expectations regarding the September FOMC meeting unchanged - 100% of traders believe that the rate will be lowered by at least 0.25%. This alone is enough to maintain our confidence in a dollar decline. As for the upcoming week, in terms of macroeconomic statistics, it promises to be relatively calm. The main event will be a symposium in Jackson Hole - guaranteed a lot of comments from representatives of leading central banks, which will certainly lead to spikes in volatility in the foreign exchange market. So you should be prepared for this and adjust the parameters of open positions for this factor.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Trump backs up, May and pound problems and ruble is in dangerYesterday, the markets continued to watch with bated breath what was happening around the negotiation process between the US and China. Just before the start of the American session, a sigh of relief swept over the financial markets. It is about Trump's tweet, that the Chinese would come to Washington to conclude a treaty. But this time no aggressive rhetoric. The Fear Index (VIX) declined by more than 10% during the day, However, it is still too early to relax and rejoice. On Friday, the United States is going to raise duties on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion. Bloomberg, meanwhile, has decided to calculate the “price” of Trump's tweets for stock markets. It was about $ 13 billion per word. It does not come cheap to financial markets. Sad news for the pound is coming from the UK. It is about the lack of progress in negotiations between Theresa May and Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn. And this means that the hopes for a partisan compromise on Brexit are melting. Accordingly, it is not necessary to count on a happy ending in the near future. The pound was under pressure and it is understandable. However, the situation may change any time - new information from May or Corbyn may radically change the attitude of markets to the pound. Given the complete current uncertainty, we still refrain from working with the pound in anticipation of any clarity. It is worth noting information from the Ministry of Finance of Russia regarding plans to implement the budget rule. So, from May 14 to June 6, 300.5 billion rubles will be spent on buying foreign currency, that is 16.7 billion rubles a day. For the ruble, this is definitely an alarming and extremely negative signal. Without excess supply in the market recently the ruble felt unwell. And the appearance in the foreign exchange market of 300+ billion rubles is a powerful factor of the downward pressure on the ruble. Recall that our position on the ruble remains unchanged - we use any of its growth for sales. About our vision of the most promising positions for trading today. They are unchanged: buying of the Australian dollar and the euro against the dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen.
Long
by Trade24Fx