Bearish Structure on CORN 8 June 2019Market has failed to close above 29 MAY candle and is trading within this candle range for this past week. Bullish momentum is losing its steam as can be seen from the market structure and also the high volume candle. Waiting for confirmation to close below 29 May candle for trade entry. Watch 3.935 support very closely. I am expecting 3.935 to hold.
CORN
Not a farmer but corn could be ready to pick here. MMHVW - so apparently the adverse flooding and wet weather hitting certain parts of USA at the moment will have a negative impact on corn as the lands over waterlogged and therefore nothing is grow at the moment. Could see a break out from this descending wedge soon.
ETFS Corn is designed to enable investors to gain an exposure to a total return investment in corn by tracking the Bloomberg Corn Subindex (the "Index") and providing a collateral yield. The product reflects the performance of the Index such that, for example, if the Index were to rise in value by 5% over a period, the product would increase in value by 5% over that same period (before fees, expenses and adjustments) and if the Index were to fall in value by 5% over a period, the product would fall in value by 5% over that same period (before fees, expenses and adjustments). The product is an exchange traded product ("ETP"). Securities in this ETP are structured as debt securities and not as shares (equity). They are traded on exchange just like shares in a company. The ETP is backed by swaps with Citigroup Global Markets Limited and Merrill Lynch International. The payment obligations of the swap counterparties to the Issuer are protected by collateral held in a segregated account at an independent custodian, The Bank of New York Mellon.
Again - this should not be taken as financial advice.
Corn, the Weather Drives the RallyFollowing the disappointment of the failed talks between the United States and China about two weeks ago, grains, particularly corn and soybeans, have fallen. The corn price dropped to a new low of the year (Monday, May 13). Since that time, the corn has started a steep rise due to the known meteorological problems.
If we take the chart of the futures contract delivery July, we can see how strong has been the rise over the last seven days, and that has led the price to break the trendline resistance of the bearish channel, within which corn was moving from July 2018.
When these situations happen, when an external factor (in this case the climate, the heavy rains) influences so strongly the price of a commodity, the best thing to do is to wait for the effect ends, and for the price to start a "return" towards a normal value.
Yes, because if we exclude the weather, the situation for corn (and all other grains) is not improved, on the contrary...
This rally of the price is a real breath of fresh air for American corn farmers. The collapse of the price has brought to their knees many of them. The trade disputes have already caused a $6.3 billion loss to corn farmers in 2018, and 2019 could be even worse.
It does not mean the rally has to stop right here. The forecast promises more rain the next ten days, and that will give new fuel to the strong bullish phase, but do keep in mind that the rallies, particularly short-covering rallies, can end just as abruptly as they began.
So, I repeat, we have to be patient, wait for the climate effect ends, and only then will we be able to open bearish positions, taking advantage of a return of the price to a value more consistent with the moment we are living.
A fundamental rule in trading is to never anticipate market entry. Remember that it is always better to take a small part of a big movement, rather than a large part of a little movement.
So never be impatient to click on buy or sell.
Ideas on EURCAD: Long Term Short This pair has huge potentials on heading down. Previous high on Mid-march 2018 doesn't impressed that many traders, and it's been forming a weird H&S pattern. I may set a sell order at 1.51. expecting to hold for a while with positive swap income as well.
Sell Order: 1.51
TP 1: 1.4963
TP2: 1.4808
TP3: 1.455
SL: 1.5137
Resistance & Excessive SweatingAs we come up to bat against this resistance once more, it's important to remember to stay hydrated and keep those electrolytes up as the price does its best impression of the little-engine-that-could in mid-air.
This is not a spot where the TA is super clear, it's primed for a fakeout in either direction.
For the bullish case we have made some lower highs and broken upward out of the downtrend that saw us hit a yearly ATL, the price is is also still bouncing off diagonal support while it holds in the 4k-ish area with more stability than it has in the past.
For da bears it's not a higher high, and the last touch up into the 4k's missed the mark too....which is never a good sign. It's leaning on the support it has established a bit more heavily as well, and there isn't any notable volume going on yet to support a strong break upward. Frankly, the price action looks a bit tired...but Bitcoin has always been willing to play head games that would put Brent Crude traders in a mental ward; so, as always anything can happen.
As far as the psyops, it's a juicy short opportunity since setting a tight ass stop is easy, especially for all the 5m chart scalpers...which can lead to all sorts of types of traders piling on for a short at this point. Bitcoin bulls are also completely irrational when it comes to short term trading and whatever horribly disfigured HODLr's have managed to stay alive and are still waiting for a run to 10k have gone so far beyond suffering they'll be foaming at the mouth to see BTC break upwards.
S t a y f r o s t y .
BULLISH DIVERGENCE MAY CORN two cases of clear bullish divergence here on the 60 min chart. new contract low was made during the last session.
I expect some short covering into the beginning of the week, a bounce off the lows signaled by the bullish divergence is possible. I could also see some further pressure occur until the bounce materializes
Everything here is purely my opinion, and in no way advice or recommendations on making trades. I may or may not hold positions in the instruments I analyze.
CORN DAILY CHART ANALYSISKey Level: 387’6
I’m working on the idea of triangle wave (B) complete and wave (C) is developing into 5 wave motive structure.
By using Elliot rule of “WAVE 2 never retrace 100% of wave 1”, we can establish an invalidation level that served as our key level of this analysis.
If wave (B) complete, corn has no business to go above 387’8 level and I’m looking forward to short with corn in wave 3.
Let’s see how corn market develop in the next coming days, week and month :D
Please leave a comment if you have any idea and suggestion to improve this corn analysis.
Happy trading
Corn Futures? A big question mark.What is going to happen with ag commodity futures in the coming months. Where are we going?
We are getting closer to the ever so important growing season in the United States, and ag futures have been stuck in a rut. Specifically corn.
February 8th, the USDA released another one of their important reports and traders saw a decrease in stocks/yield as well as other juicy information. Overall the report was nothing to get the market too excited. After the close us traders saw yesterday, it leaves me even more curious of where these futures are going to go.
From a chart prospective, we have seen strong congestion in corn futures. Looking at the chart here for CZ9 (dec 19), you can see a possible ascending triangle. I am not completely convinced.
I am torn fundamentally with the idea of larger acres coming and then throw in the size of the corn carry out, which is lower than we have seen in a while.
Off the cusp there are a few very interesting variables at play in the ag futures world. Throw in the continuing trade negotiations and every analyst prediction is radically altered.
For now it will be interesting to sit back and watch how this unfolds.
Comments always encouraged.
Everything here is purely my opinion, and in no way advice or recommendations on making trades. I may or may not hold positions in the instruments I analyze.
L.R.