Wheat target 955Wheat is forming a bottom , especially in daily a double bottom has already been formed , also a wedge formation is looking really good , waiting for bullish 2024 .
CORN
Go woke go broke? - Anheuser Busch
From a technical perspective, Anheuser-Busch InBev (AB InBev) presents an attractive opportunity due to a substantial drawdown of over 20% since April, attributed to a perceived shift toward 'wokeness.' This phenomenon, commonly expressed as "go woke go broke," often reflects boycotts against companies embracing diversity, equity, and inclusion, or, in AB InBev's case, partnering with transgender influencers. However, this negative sentiment has potentially led to AB InBev being undervalued.
The uniqueness of this situation lies in AB InBev's diverse brand portfolio. Many of its brands are not immediately associated with the company, and while certain recognizable ones may face boycotts, the other brands continue to thrive. Notably, several of these brands hold higher market values than the more affordable ones that have been boycotted, which suggests that this strategic diversity could benefit the company.
Additionally, as the outrage associated with 'wokeness' appears to be subsiding, AB InBev may find itself in a more favorable market position. Furthermore, in times of economic uncertainty or conflict, consumer demand for alcoholic beverages typically increases, and AB InBev's comprehensive product range positions it well to meet this potential surge in demand.
Price Levels:
Strong Support: $49.80
First Resistance $59.90
Target 1: $65.80
Target 2: $88.93
Long-Term Target: $106.00
CORN - KEYLEVELS - 2DHere I am neutrally bullish, we see a (possible) double bottom, which if it breaks the next level of resistance, could bring buyers and even greater interest.
On the other hand, we must take into account that this correction is normal for grain, taking into account that the situation in Ukraine has calmed down and grain exports have resumed, thus all that growth since the beginning of the war, has now been closed and completed by a correction.
The price is also decreasing due to the fact that the grain harvest was done in August-September and the stocks are full, but with the time when we get closer to spring, the prices must rise again.
10 Year Corn Projection (potentially)10yr Corn outlook: 1 thought (of many) on the potential course of the corn market for the next 10 years. I feel the job of the current market is to find a price high enough to ration future demand. Could be current price, 8.50, or 9.50. The potential is there for any of those numbers to mark a major swing high for Corn. The higher that mark is nearby, the more corn begins to ration future demand. The low found after a major high is made, could mark an area for the future multi year market structure. The market should remain very sensitive for another few years. Sensitive to world demand and production misses across the globe. There are many climate cycles coming ahead that could add to potential Ag production shortages. **Not a prediction, something to watch**
At some point we return to a tighter, more defined market structure working low prices against the long term uptrend line… 4.50-5.25 ???
🌽 Corn Technical Analysis (GrainStats)Corn Fundamentals ( CBOT:ZCZ2023 )
Corn Harvest Progress 🚜➡️🌽
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░ 59%
Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎
437,549 Metric Tons
⬇️ 29,055 Metric Tons week vs. last week
⬇️ 22,514 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year
⬇️ 370,24 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-year average
Export Sales
16,176,285 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year)
⬆️ 2,753,396 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year
Noteworthy News / Themes
🟢 Argentina is behind pace on Corn planting (12% complete)
🟢 US River levels have improved on the Mississippi river (barge freight down)
🟢 Mexico purchased 117,200 metric tons in a flash sales news announcement
🔴 The US still has a +2 billion bushel carryout
🔴 Corn failed to stay above $5.00 futures
🟢 Dry forecast in Argentina
🔴 Wet forecast in Brazil
Corn Technicals
Corn couldn't settle above $5.00 for too long given the ample expected carryout being priced into the market in the middle of harvest. Consider the sales that were sold above $5.00 as a gift to the farmers and we hope farmers prices some bushels.
Outside of this, there really isn't much to say anymore about this market except that after 3 years of a bull market, we're finally getting back to reality and reality in the grain market is quiet.
Watch the following levels for now👇
🟢 Current Upside Target: 5.00
🔴 Current Downside Targets: 4.74, 4.675
Corn Price Rollercoaster: A Technical BreakdownDive into the intricacies of corn price movements in this focused video analysis🎥. We'll tackle key support levels, observe the recent price plunge💥, and discuss what could be in store. Remember, I'm not a commodities expert, just a passionate observer👀 sharing my insights. Hop on this rollercoaster ride and let's decode the chart together! 🚀📊🤓
Got a take on these corn price moves? 🌽Drop your thoughts in the comments below. Let's get a conversation going!
Agricultural Commodities: On a Landscape of Market ManipulationThis Fib layout consists of the most important agricultural commodities. Beef, Pork, Soybean, Corn, Wheat, Rice, and Orange Juice Futures.
-Orange Juice is sold as a frozen concentrate which makes it a commodity.
Each Schematic is worked through by Large Institutions on behalf of the Fed.
Market Manipulation through inflation and destroying meat processing plants/Killing livestock shows its effects.
$CORN Bearish to bullish Reversal The narrative around AMEX:CORN is shifting from a bearish to a bullish outlook. The reversal in sentiment suggests that the asset could be entering a new upward trend, departing from its previous bearish trajectory. Investors may want to recalibrate their strategies to capitalize on this evolving market dynamic.
Is Corn Ready To Pop?Last week, we were looking for a potential bottom in corn. Since then, we’ve mostly traded sideways to slightly higher. However, the end of this week brings a “triple-witching” event - the end of the month, the end of the fiscal quarter, and the quarterly grain stocks report all occur on Friday. In last quarter’s grain stocks report, the market sold off fairly sharply as corn stocks were reportedly 54% higher on a year-over-year basis.
The contract’s resilience in defending the lows is very encouraging considering the positioning of managed funds. In the chart below, you can see that managed funds have amassed a substantial short position over the course of the last 6 weeks. As of last Friday’s CFTC Commitments of Traders report, managed funds held 319,079 short positions. Meanwhile, prices have maintained a very tight 15-20 cent trading range.
As such, there is significant fund rebalancing in Friday’s session, it may induce a short-covering rally. What does that mean? In order to exit a short position, the contract holder will have to buy a contract. If there is substantial buying volume, it will press prices higher, and force short-positions to exit ultimately resulting in a rally.
The question then becomes - how high can we go? Considering that the December corn contract was unable to close above 500 a single time in the month of August or September thus far, that may be an ambitious initial target. In order to retest 500, and ultimately our 502-506 ½ 3-star resistance pocket, we will have to surpass 3-star resistance between 489 and 491. If we manage to trade through 491, it could lay the foundation for December corn to surpass 500 once again.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Close to A Bottom in December Corn? After scoring a new contract low early in Tuesday’s trade, December corn futures managed to stage a late-session rally to close in positive territory. Moreover, the contract managed to close above trendline resistance that’s been in place dating back to June 20th.
Price action on Wednesday served as a continuation of the late-session strength, with the contract closing 6 cents higher to close at 482 ¼ - marking a second consecutive close above trendline resistance. Prices have clung to the trendline very tightly over the last 8 trading sessions, and the previous two sessions are the first instances of prices closing above trendline resistance.
So the question now becomes, are we close to a bottom in the December corn contract? Looking at price history and seasonal tendencies, we can see that the December corn contract typically bottoms out between the final week of September and into the first couple of weeks of October, before ultimately staging a moderate rally in late October.
www.seasonalgo.com
If we are indeed attempting to put in an intermediate bottom, we can expect a support/resistance flip. Meaning, that previous trendline resistance should now act as trendline support. In other words, if prices falter in the coming days, and test the trendline, we should likely see bulls come to defend the trendline.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CORN vs CRUDE Here's a quick view of CORN vs CRUDE which has been moving together for the past ten years with some variation.
With CRUDE pushing highs here (Price Inflation fears rampant) and CORN pushing new lows (Food Deflation - no fears about falling corn prices in the news warning about falling inflation), it seems obvious to put up a chart showing how these two markets are set up at the moment.
CORN and CRUDE have moved to an extreme and with CORN pointing lower I am seeing that there is a trade setting up.
In the past, I was constructive on CORN and was looking for corn to catch UP to crude oil, but that didn't materialize like it did in the 1970's with a 4-fold advance. The monetary inflation we have had in both cycles would have supported much higher corn prices.
However, here we are. Corn has fallen to lows going back more than a year, but the obvious story is that crude oil is making 52-week highs. Side note: You can also see that crude oil is down 7% from 2012 or 11 years ago. This is NOMINALLY as well. Inflation has been substantial for the last 11 years and may be 40% or 50%.
Also note that corn is down 45% from 11 years ago "NOMINALLY". After inflation, corn prices are down 60% or more.
So, this trade sets up within the near future and you could put both sides on: long corn, short crude. Or you can take sell signals only on all technical setups for crude on the daily chart. I would suggest do a little of both and have 5 different definitions of "technical trend" to follow. The simplest is "sell a 5-day new low" and use a stop over the 5-day high.
Stay tuned!
Tim West
September 20, 2023 11:48AM EST
CORN is trying to establish a base for an upside counter-swingAfter a long period of sideways trading within MJT and MNT lines , Corn is trying to establish a base for an upside counter-swing. A clear close above 508 will confirm it and clear the path for an extended rally. Today USDA will release the weekly export sales report which could be the catalyst that ignite this counter-swing.
Is Corn Price on the Edge of a 25% Drop?In this idea, I am trying to read and forecast the behavior of the chart in the next 4.5 months . I do not follow corn production, harvest, demand, etc.
Since April 2022 (its 9-year highs) has lost about 40% . Its relatively long-going bearish trend means that most of the drop likely has happened.
Let's quickly study previous drops that lasted more than a year and erased more than 40% of the corn price.
The last one started 11 years ago. It happened during world economic growth. The price lost more than 61% for 26 months of the trend.
Another drop occurred during the GFC and lasted for 24 months. Corn lost 60.5% of its price. Important to note that the price reached its lowest point in December 2008 (in the sixth month after the drop started), then the price fluctuated and reached about the same level in September 2009. Considering the crisis and its trend low reached in 6 months, it is not the perfect example to compare with the current 2022-2023 corn price trend.
Let's continue to delve into the past! 44% tumble was printed between April 2004 and November 2005, i.e. 19 months .
Sending back 17 years ago, we can see a 64.4 % drop in 25 months .
Here we are in 1983, the era of high dollar inflation (and not only). The Fed chair Volcker Jr. is fighting with inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY , and America is recovering from its 1979-1982 recession. The world economy is starting to recover from recession/slowdown too.
Between late August 1983 and February 1987 ( 43 months ), corn prices fell by 61.9% .
These data series are not enough to firmly generalize bearish trends . Besides, price movements in the past do not determine possible future patterns.
We can gently conclude that a bearish trend in corn prices that lasts more than a year could last between 19 and 43 months and show a drop between 40 and 64.4%.
In view of those facts and the performance of the corn daily prices in the last 1.5 months,
I forecast several scenarios.
In the first one, I expect that the price would break the 469-470 support zone and come to 400 cents per bushel until the end of September .
Then I expect some correction lasting 3-5 weeks. And the realization of scenario #1.5 (continuation of scenario #1), we could see a breakout of 400 cents and move to 345 cents per bushel before the end of the year . That would be the low or almost the low of the current long-term bearish trend for maze price. Combined scenarios #1 and #1.5 would mean minus 25% from the current price and a drop of 57.5% since April 2022.
There are two alternatives . In scenario #2 after reaching 400 cents, the price would return to 470 cents .
In scenario #3 the current support zone would be a minimum of the trend for the next 4.5 months.
SOYB- the soybean ETF moves on buying pressure LONGOn the 4H Chart, SOYB has moved above both tthe near and intermediate term POC lines
of the respective volume profiles. Upward price volatility above the running mean
on the relative volatility indicator. In confluence pric emoved above the mean basis
band of the double Bollinger band. Fundamentally, supply-demand imbalances including
the collapse of the Black Sea shipping deal as bad actor Russia continues to inflict chaos
has a ripple effect throughout agricultural commodity markets. Soybean prices are
not following the chaos and volatility of the general markets like AMEX and NASDAQ but rather
they follow the beat of their own drum like seasonality crop yields shipping costs and
others. This make an alternative to avoid going heavy into topping or sinking general
markets. They allow diversification not unlike adding bonds to a portfolio when trying
to weather the storm. Given the narrow trading range I will play this with some call options
If you would like my idea of an excellent call option trade please leave a comment.
See also my ideas on WEAT and CORN.
se to expire after the harvest and into the planting in in Brazil.
WEAT- Wheat ETF at buy point LONGWEAT the Wheat EFT has been volatile of late due to the Bakc Sea shipping deal
falling apart when Russia refused to renew it. Brazil has been trying to increase
whet exports to pick up from the fall off of Ukrainian shipments to Africa and others.
On the 4H chart, WEAT has fallen 15% from the double tops of July demonstrating
the high volatility in what is typically a slow-moving commodity. WEAT is now
5% above the support trendline and about 14% below the horizontal resistance of
those double tops. This is a favorable r:R ratio. I will go long here assuming there
is now breakthrough in the near future with the resumption of the Black Sea grain
deal to impact the supply-demand imbalance and destabilize the price rise. I will
look into a call option trade as well.
CORN wedge / triangle coiling for breakout LONGCORN on the daily chart since late June has fallen to the present level with a
flat or slowly falling support line. I see this as a falling wedge or a flat bottom triangle
slowly setting up a breakout whose upside could be 30% or more. Price had a nice
green engulfing bar to finish a down week in the general markets. CORN does not
follow the general market. It is following the collapse of the Black Sea grain deal and
the increases in the Brazil export levels. Brazil is coming into its growing season now
as it is in the southern hemisphere and spring approaches. The chart shows
CORN inside the triangle/wedge and is approaching its acute corner. I see this as
a long trade setup which I will take. If you want to trade this trade and am curious as to
the specifics as I see them, leave a comment.
Agricultural Commodities: On a Landscape of Market ManipulationThis Fib layout consists of the most important agricultural commodities. Beef, Pork, Soybean, Corn, Wheat, Rice, and Orange Juice Futures.
-Orange Juice is sold as a frozen concentrate which makes it a commodity.
Each Schematic is worked through by Large Institutions on behalf of the Fed.
Market Manipulation through inflation and destroying meat processing plants/Killing livestock shows its effects.
CORN rises off a pivot LONGCORN, the ETF tracking spot corn and corn futures has ended its down trend on
the 15 minute chart. The pivot is not a surprise given the issues related to wheat
in the Black Sea shipping with the Ukraine war escalating onto the sea and the
grain export deal falling apart. The Price Momentum Oscillator which might be
considered a leading indicator is showing bullish divergence.Volatility is steady
and without spikes. The bias here is for bullish momentum to more forward
with increasing amplitude given the fundamental geopolitical context.
I will buy CORN long and may enter a position on the futures markets.
Wheat deal in the Black Sea- Strike Causes Price Rise LONGWEAT is a popular ETF tracking wheat as a commodity. Because of geopolitical issues
the rising price is an escalator for basic food prices from Africa to USA and globally.
Sugar is a commodity that always seems to rise. Here on this daily chart, I have plotted
the ratio of wheat to sugar spot prices which typically is a falling ratio. However, the
downtrend pivoted to coincide with the wheat deal for Ukraine falling apart and pressuring
commodity prices. On the RSI indicator both low TF and highTF are rising and are not
overall to strong. I can easily conclude that wheat is a safe long bet a slow mover that
might be low risk in what right now is a chaotic and volatile market that could be topping out.
There is no expected flip of the wheat price trend until the geopolitical winds change
direction. I will open a long position in WEAT and check CORN for a similar analysis.
Corn: Prepare to pop 🍿Corn has continued to sell off over the last few days and is now approaching our blue buy zone from USX 496 to USX 470. The downward movement in the form of the blue wave (b) should end there. Subsequently, we expect the blue wave (c) to rise to around USX 600, making it worthwhile for prospective buyers to place long orders in our blue buy zone. Our alternative scenario, with a 25% probability, occurs if the price falls further than we expect. In this case, a break of the support level at USX 474.25 would give it significant downside momentum that buyers should take note of.
Soybeans poised for a drop?Soybeans have certainly caught our attention as a classic head and shoulders pattern has emerged, suggesting a possible trend reversal. This implies a potential drop equivalent to the height from the head to the neckline, taking us towards the 900 level. Could this be signalling more downside in the soybean market?
The current price action is intriguing as an attempt to break the neckline was rejected and prices now hover just below the neckline. Is this the prime moment to consider a short position on soybeans? We think it's worth exploring, and here's why...
As we’ve last pointed out in the “It’s Corn!” idea in March, prices of the 3 major agriculture crops, Soybean, Wheat and Corn generally move together. Back then, we were highlighting the excessive premium in Corn futures as well as the break of a technical chart pattern. Now, we're witnessing a similar tale with Soybean stepping into the spotlight.
From 2019 until now, these three crops have jockeyed for position in terms of percentage gain. Currently, Soybean is in the lead, when compared to Wheat and Corn, in terms of % gain from pre-COVID times and the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Another way to look at it is to compare the ratio between Soybean & Corn as well as Wheat. The Soybean/Corn ratio is now at the higher end of its 7-year range, and while the Soybean/Wheat ratio not as extreme, is still closer to its range top.
Another interesting dynamic we can look into is the Natural Gas – Fertilizers – Soybean dynamic. As natural gas is a key input in fertilisers production, the spectacular fall in natural gas prices has preceded falling fertiliser prices. This in turn, impacts soybean prices as well.
Hence, we see a potential downside for Soybean as it trades at a premium as compared to Corn & Wheat. We can consider a short position on the Soybean Futures at the current level of 1340 with a stop at 1450 and take profits at 1250 followed by a subsequent take profit level at 900. This will allow profits on the anticipated downward move while also considering the head and shoulders pattern's target. CME’s Soybean Futures is quoted in U.S. cents per bushel. Each 0.0025 increment equal to 12.5$.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
#CORN 🟢 M5 LONG
Asset Long according to CFTC futures reports
In the zone of the Buyer of stock options
Global Imbalance Level M15
M5 imbalance
input: 5302 (on imbalance retest)
stop: 5252
tp-1: 5352
tp-2: 5450
CORN,4H, TIME TO BUY NOW ...hello EVERYBODY.....
==================
sometimes you can get chance to MAKE fast profit you found the right point to enter and exit...
so depending on the strongest support and resistance lines....
we have that chance now to open long position. to 6.21 then to 6.41
and our SL will be on 5.60
==============================
good luck
