SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 3 Projection Update IIToday's hot news was that Wave 3 is upon us and appears to be bigger than initially anticipated. So, relooked at the charts... charts that had predicted the Wave 2 spike in COVID-19 cases in SG in November 2020, which appeared in January 2021. (See attached links to related ideas below) And again on 5th March 2021, which gave heads up on a clear and present spike in weeks to come.
Basically, I have a custom Fibonacci-ed MACD that I use for technical analyses, and I applied it to the COVID confirmed cases. These numbers only increase, so I was analyzing the moving average trends, and realized that the convergence divergence model could be used to give heads up on increasing numbers. So far, 2 out of 2 waves projected about 6-8 weeks in advance. That's a 100% hit rate that would have given critical time for action.
Looking at the daily chart on the left panel, where the rising MACD histograms project a spike. And once the histograms cross over above zero, within weeks we will see the spike in the reported numbers. What appears worse is when the MACD crosses over. As seen from early April 2021.
Now, using the same model, I apply to the weekly chart of SG COVID-19 cases, and it shows that this Wave 3 spike was underestimated previously. I might have underestimated this Wave 3 .
The MACD histogram is about to cross over zero, and the MACD itself is also crossing up.
Ominous projection? Yes, and I would give this some serious thought as a heads up mechanism to start t hinking ahead of the (virus) curve instead. Because, the current wave might just spiral out over the next couple of months.
*remember, any wave starts, needs at least a month to settle down due to the epidemiologic curves.
