DXY USD - MONTHLY ANALYSIS - CORRECTIONThe USD has been in an uptrend since March - 2008 and has been dominating the financial markets and the global economy with toxic pressure since last year.
- Today, I would like to present an analysis that takes a closer look at the USD (DXY) from a monthly perspective.
We are at several relevant resistance points:
1. FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | 0.88 - is about to be tested.
-> 0.88 FIB = 114.979
-> Marked as a "blue" line on the chart.
+ Next psychological number would be 115,000 as resistance.
-> Psychological numbers are relevant decision points, because the human brain (subconsciously) prefers round numbers, at which more orders are placed.
2nd RESISTANCE TREND LINE | from 2008
-> 7 points of contact since the formation = very strong resistance.
-> Drawn as "red" line in the chart.
3. SUPPLY ZONE | from 2002 (gray)
-> Time expired, but still psychologically relevant for market participants.
-> Drawn in as a "gray" box in the chart.
4. POINTS OF INTEREST
-> Points, which are mostly a psychological number, at which some liquidity was traded in the past.
= these points can be seen as both "support / resistance".
-> Drawn as "turquoise" lines in the chart.
These are now only a few indicators of those which are available to us all.
However, even without indicators, it can be seen that the USD (DXY) is clearly overbought and a correction (from a chart-technical point of view) should be imminent.
Regardless of our analysis, the macroeconomy currently determines the further course of events.
Detailed price predictions are thus a matter of blind potshots, and that is the last thing we need in trading.
"Correction scenarios"
1. We see a reaction of the trend line and the 0.88 Fibonacci and will correct a little.
-> Possible correction target = 107 points
2. The DXY breaks the trend line and the 0.88 Fibonacci and is then finally stopped out by our "SUPPLY Zone + the Points of interests".
-> Possible correction target = 109 points
"Breakout scenarios
3. The DXY breaks through all marked resistances, makes a fakeout and enters the correction.
-> Possible correction target = 111 points
4. The DXY breaks through all marked resistances, confirms its breakout and starts its journey to the 1.618 Fibonacci.
-> Possible correction target = 152.129 points
Alright, now we can only wait and see what the future will bring us.
- Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives.
Thank you very much and happy trading!
